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APPLE EARNINGS PROVOKE INITIAL SOUND AND FURY, THEN NOTHING AND WORSE $AAPL

April 24, 2013

On Tuesday, my inbox was flooded after my last column, “Seven Reasons Not To Be Foolish Ahead Of Apple Earnings.” All of the emails were from readers who felt that they knew for sure what Apple was going to do after earnings. About half of the email writers felt strongly that Apple would go up about $30 to $40 after the release; the other half felt that Apple would fall about $50 after the earnings call. These spreads were somewhat wider that what option premiums in Apple were indicating. Option premiums were indicating a move of about 7% after earnings, and that’s

HOW TO PLAY APPLE’S BEAUTY AND THE BEAST EARNINGS $AAPL

April 23, 2013

Apple Inc.’s just-released earnings show quite a contrast between the recent past and the near future. The projections for next quarter are downright ugly while earnings for the last quarter are a thing of beauty. First let us examine the technicals of Apple AAPL stock and then we will move on to the fundamentals. Technical perspective For a technical perspective, let us look at the chart. Click here for the chart. Prior to earnings, Apple had broken the support at $419 – $421 and then dipped below $400. Now the prior support acts as resistance. In the after-hours action, Apple moved up

WHY THE GOLD ‘MEGA BEARS’ ARE WRONG $GLD $GDX $GDXJ $SLV $AG

April 23, 2013

After the recent collapse in gold and silver, some mega bears are coming out of the woodwork. Several have targets that are scary for investors in gold, with them predicting a fall below $1000 for gold, with $800 appearing to be a favorite number. (I have seen targets as low as $400.) But these seem like extreme responses to a significant drop and in my opinion, may not be accurate takes on where gold is likely to end up. Before you read further, please understand that I am neither a gold bug nor a permabear on gold. My calls on

SEVEN REASONS NOT TO BE FOOLISH AHEAD OF APPLE EARNINGS $AAPL $BBRY $NOK $GOOG $MSFT

April 22, 2013

Quarterly earnings from Apple for the three months ended March 30 come out Tuesday after the market closes. Unlike in prior quarters, there is not a high probability scenario that can be laid out with any degree of confidence ahead of earnings. Acting on Apple stock ahead of earnings this quarter is a fool’s game. Here are my seven reasons: 1.) Sentiment on Apple is negative. According to the indicators I watch, negative sentiment is at a level which usually leads to a strong move to the upside. I have backtested 3000 U. S. stocks and 1000 international stocks going

WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: GOLD HITS TARGETS WE GAVE YOU WHEN IT WAS TRADING OVER $1900 $GLD $SLV $USO $DIA $SPY $QQQ $TBF $TBT

April 19, 2013

(The Weekly Digest reproduces the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers.) GOLD BREAKS ABOVE $1400 AFTER G20 ACCEPTS ABENOMICS April 19, 2013 Gold has broken above $1400 as G20 accepts Abenomics. G-20 refers to the group of 20 major economies. Abenomics refers to the economic policies of the new Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe. Abe has, simply put, printing presses in Japan in a higher gear than in the United States. Please note that we recently upgraded gold and silver to Mildly Bullish in the very, very short-term. Stock markets across the world remain

UPDATE ON HERO $HERO

April 19, 2013

This post was just published on ZYX Buy Change Alert. The company is a provider of shallow water drilling and marine services to the oil and natural gas explorations and production industries. The company is a potential buyout target. HERO is long with an average price of $2.55. Currently, 50% of the full core position size is being held. Profits have been taken as high as $6.00. Alot of interest on the buy side is being seen in this stock this morning because of positive mention in a popular publication. What To Do Now? Those in the stock may continue to hold. Those

APPLE VIOLATES $400, NO SILVER LINING FROM OVERCAST CIRRUS OUTLOOK $AAPL $CRUS

April 17, 2013

Until yesterday Apple AAPL had been holding strong after testing its support around $419 multiple times. Today that support has decisively broken with shares plunging more than 6% and briefly below $400 to as low as $398.11 this afternoon. The reason for the crushing action lower in Apple shares is what can be inferred from negative talk out of a major supplier of iPhone audio components, Cirrus Logic CRUS . Cirrus said that it expects revenues and earnings when it reports quarterly results next week to be significantly below analysts’ forecasts. Cirrus also projected horrific revenues going forward. The implication is that Apple has slowed the

APPLE IN TROUBLE IF U.S. PHONE MARKET FOLLOWS FRANCE, INDIA, CHINA $AAPL $NOK $BBRY $GOOG $MSFT

April 17, 2013

Apple became the largest company in the world by market capitalization on the strength of innovation in mobile phones. Fortunately for Apple, the last several years there has been a consumer trend to treat their phones as status symbols or fashion accessories. This kind of consumer behavior has also been the primary reason for Apple’s success in China. For many newly rich Chinese, flaunting the latest iPhone has been a way to show that they have arrived. What about a possible inflection point that is arriving when most consumers will consider their phone simply as a utility device and not