Market Blog » The Arora Report Stock Market News

BUYBACKS UNCHAINED: SADDLING UP FOR BANK OF AMERICA’S NEXT BIG RUN $JPM $BAC $C $GS $MS

March 15, 2013

Yesterday after the market close, the Federal Reserve announced the results of Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR). In CCAR, the Fed evaluates capital ratios under distressed financial and economic conditions, the plan to comply with Basel 3 capital requirements, and the capital planning process. The Fed approved capital plans of 14 fiClick here to enlarge the chart.rms including Bank of America, Citigroup, and Morgan Stanley. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase received conditional approvals. The big surprise was approval of Bank of America’s plan to repurchase up to $5 billion of common stock and to redeem about $5.5 billion of preferred stock. These amounts exceeded

AMERICAN CONSUMERS SPEND TWICE AS MUCH AS EXPECTATIONS, GOLD FALLS ON THE NEWS $GLD $SLV $DIA $USO $SPY $GDX

March 13, 2013

This post was just published on ZYX Buy Change Alert. February Retail Sales ex-auto were 1.0% vs. consensus of 0.5%. In our models we exclude autos because autos are very volatile and distort the results. This is indeed good news and proves the skeptics on the American consumer wrong. Due to the rise in the payroll tax, even astute market watchers were concerned that the consumer would pull back. The numbers prove the old adage once again, ‘never bet against the American consumer.’ Gold futures were up to $1595-$1596 right before the Retail Sales number came out. Within milliseconds of the

THE PLAN BASED ON STOCK MARKET PROBABILITIES $SPY $DIA $QQQ

March 12, 2013

This post was just published on ZYX Buy Change Alert. Nigam’s second law is that nobody knows with certainty what is going to happen next. The first step in becoming a successful investor is to learn how to deal with the uncertainty that is the true nature of the markets. The best way to deal with uncertainty is to use probabilities. Our model to forecast the market is an adaptive model, i.e., it changes with market conditions. The model makes two adaptations in near real-time to the eight inputs as new data becomes available. First, the weight of an input is low

WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: BLOWOUT EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS $GLD $SLV $USO $DIA $SPY $QQQ $TBF $TBT

March 8, 2013

(The Weekly Digest reproduces the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers.) BLOWOUT EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS March 8, 2013 This morning the U. S. Department of Labor reported blowout non-farm private payrolls at 246K vs consensus of 175K. Unemployment rate fell to 7.7%, the lowest rate since December 2008. The big question is how the stock market will react to this number. The straight forward answer to this question would seem to be that the number is good so the market should continue its momentum upwards. For the momo

ZAGG FALLS ON SKUL EARNINGS $ZAGG $SKUL

March 8, 2013

This post was just published on ZYX Short Sell Change Alert. ZAGG is short from$13.85 and previously profits have been taken as low $6.70. 50% of the full core position size is being held. ZAGG makes cases and other accessories for mobile devises. ZAGG is falling in sympathy with a similar company SKUL. SKUL reported lousy earnings. What To Do Now? Those in the stock may continue to hold. Those not in the stock may wait for a signal on the Real Time Feed to enter.

TAKE MORE PARTIAL PROFITS ON THC $THC

March 8, 2013

This post was just published on ZYX Buy Change Alert. The position is long with an average price of $20.40. Currently, 30% of the full core position size is being held. Profits have been taken as high as $39.26. Consider taking profits on another 15% right here at $42.80. After this profit taking 25% will be held.

UPGRADING BRAZIL IN THE SHORT-TERM $EWZ

March 8, 2013

This post was just published on ZYX Emerging Change Alert. We are upgrading Brazil in the short-term to Mild Buy. The ETF of choice is EWZ. The buy zone is $54 to $58. Suggested buy points are $54.68, $55.62, $56.26, and $57.29. The strategy behind this call is ‘reversal to mean.’ The Brazilian market has lagged other markets this year. The Brazilian market is likely to catch up. The Brazilian market is up against stiff technical resistance; however if the rally in the global stock markets continue, the resistance is likely to be broken. The composite result of our indicators for

SHORT SELLING SILVER $SLV

March 8, 2013

This post was just published on ZYX Short Sell Change Alert. Consider starting a 10% tranche on SLV right here around $27.85. Futures EQ is $28.73. Caution: please keep quantities small.