This post was published yesterday in The Arora Report paid services.
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know now.
Select Momo Stocks Slammed
Normally we do not discuss individual stocks in the Afternoon Capsule or the Morning Capsule. However we do illustrate with individual stocks when there is a major development with broader impact. What has happened in the stock market today by the slamming of select momo stocks may have broader impact. Let’s explore with the chart of Peloton (PTON).
Please click here for an annotated chart of Peloton.
Note the following:
- PTON stock ran into the earnings.
- Earnings were better than the consensus but less than the whisper numbers.
- The media machine kicked into full gear to hype the stock.
- Peloton itself went into full promotional mode.
- Not to be left behind, Wall Street shifted into super hype mode.
- The chart shows Arora signal to short sell in the middle of all the super hype.
- The VUD indicator is the most sensitive indicator of net supply demand in real time. Green indicates net demand, orange indicates net supply.
- The chart shows the VUD indicator was orange in the after hours when the stock was running up like crazy. This is important because it did not happen in August. If it was August, VUD indicator in August would have been very green.
- The chart shows Goldman Sachs (GS) raising the target to $138. Other Wall Street brokers chipped in raising their own targets to $120.
- Social media was in full bullish mode predicting big gains on their long positions.
- In August, in situations similar to this, stocks routinely went significantly above the highest target. If this was August, this stock would have probably gone to $150.
- Note that in stead of going higher the stock kept on falling throughout the day reaching $84.82 at the time the chart was prepared.
- VUD indicator was orange throughout the day. This would have never happened in August.
Is The Tide Shifting?
This is the question of utmost importance to prudent investors.
$3 Trillion Deficit
The federal deficit has reached $3 trillion year to date. Nobody cares. It is just so easy to print and borrow money.
The momo crowd money flows since the Morning Capsule are 🔒.
Smart money flows since the Morning Capsule are 🔒.
Short squeeze money flows are neutral.
A Special Note To New Subscribers
Note the smart money behavior. Smart money tends to sell into strength on strong up days.
New subscribers should consider adopting smart money’s way of investing and trading.
Sentiment is 🔒.
Sentiment is a contrary indicator at extremes. In plain English, this means that when sentiment becomes extremely positive it is time to sell and when sentiment becomes extremely negative it is time to buy.
The momo crowd money flows in gold are 🔒 since the Morning Capsule.
Smart money flows are 🔒 in gold since the Morning Capsule.
The momo crowd money flows in oil are 🔒 since the Morning Capsule.
Smart money flows in oil are 🔒 since the Morning Capsule.
Buy Zones And Buy Now Ratings
There are appear to be sell on close orders.
There is merit to watching the pattern of market on close orders as they represent the day’s dominant net cumulative activity by many professionals and funds.
The Afternoon Capsule is not published daily but only when conditions warrant it. The content below is unchanged and is to be used for reference as needed.
Many investors are spoiled due to the decade long bull market. Many believe it is very simple – be all in or be all out. Unfortunately, the last decade was an exception to the rule.
As the market is running up, investors who do not understand the true nature of the market are jumping in with both feet without appreciating the risks.
Risk and reward are two sides to the coin. It is important to consider both.
For your reference, we are pasting the following from your Getting A Running Start Guide,
Everything should be made as simple as possible but not simpler.
Strategic Vs. Tactical
All investors should consider bringing more sophistication to their investing and trading. It is important to clearly understand the difference between strategic and tactical calls. For your convenience, a prior post is pasted below.
ASK ARORA: CASH AND HEDGES: UNDERSTANDING THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN STRATEGIC AND TACTICAL CALLS
Nigam Arora answers your questions about investing in stocks, ETFs, bonds, gold and silver, oil and currencies. Have a question? Send it to Nigam Arora.
We have written previously about the importance of understanding the difference between strategic calls and tactical calls.
We welcome your comments and questions. The law does not allow us to answer them individually. However, when a large number of subscribers ask similar questions, a post is done. Typically starting with Ask Arora.
Based on the questions received this morning, a refresher on understanding the difference between strategy and tactics is in order.
Strategy defines medium to long term plan to achieve the highest risk adjusted returns.
Tactics are small adjustments within the strategy to further enhance risk adjusted returns.
If You Could Pick Only One
We recognize that all investors have individual preferences. If you could pick only one, consider focusing on the strategy. Never focus only on tactics at the expense of strategy.
The strategic call at this time is to stay cautiously bullish. The logic is very straightforward. Consider the following key points:
- The stock market has been going straight up for 10 years. It is late cycle. Portfolios have to be organized for the late cycle. Risks are much higher in the late cycle compared to when a bull market is in an early stage.
- The world is awash in debt. The sovereign debt owed by governments and corporate debt owed by zombie corporations has dramatically increased. It is a bubble that is getting bigger waiting for a pin to prick it.
- Valuations are expensive.
- A big reason for levitation of the stock market is money printing by the central banks. This can continue for a long time but not forever.
Tactical calls are simply short term adjustments. For example, a tactical call to decrease cash and hedges is based on the following:
- Weak hands temporarily washed out overbought condition.
- Overbought condition temporarily relieved.
- Sentiment backing off from almost extreme bullish levels.
- Overall better earnings.
Cash And Hedges
We provide a range for cash and hedges. Most investors would be in the middle of the ranges. As such, they would not need to make any change. When a change is given only at the edges of the ranges, only the most active investors need to make a change.
Arora’s 12th Law
Arora’s 12th Law is applicable here: To be successful at investing and trading, flow with the new data and stay nimble.
Bullet Proof Your Portfolio And Increase Your Returns
We consistently see that private investors, money managers and investment advisors who have attended the Bullet Proof Your Portfolio and Increase Your Returns seminar do significantly better compared to those who have not attended the seminar.
Here are the four main reasons why this consistently happens to investors who attend the seminar:
- They start understanding the true nature of the markets.
- Develop a better framework to handle the true nature of the market.
- Tend to act with more conviction and with more comfort.
- Tend to develop a better control over their emotions.
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