WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: FED BREAKS SILICON VALLEY BANK AND WAGES COOL – WHAT IS NEXT?

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By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

MOMO CROWD’S FAVORITE BANK SENDS SHOCK WAVES ACROSS THE GLOBE, WAGES COOL

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Classic Run On The Bank

Please click here for a chart of the stock of SVB Financial Group (SIVB), owner of Silicon Valley Bank.

Note the following:

  • The Morning Capsule is about the big picture and not an individual stock.  The chart of SIVB is being used to illustrate the point.
  • A classic run on the bank is happening at Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB).
  • Contagion fears have spread not only across other banks in the U.S. but also among banks in Asia and Europe. Bank stocks all across the globe are under severe pressure.
  • SIVB has long been a favorite of the momo crowd.
  • The momo crowd ran the stock up to $763.22 in November 2021.  The chart shows that the stock had pulled back to about $268 on Wednesday.
  • On the chart, pay attention to the price on the Y-axis.  The price had fallen to $58.39 when the chart was prepared.  The stock is halted at the time of this writing.
  • It is estimated that about 50% of startups in the U.S. and Europe have exposure to SIVB.
  • Here is what happened at SIVB.
    • Due to the liquidity caused by free money and rocketing valuations of companies in Silicon Valley, deposits at SIVB jumped from $61.76B at the end of 2019 to $189.20B by the end of 2021.
    • SIVB purchased $80B worth of mortgage backed securities.
    • 97% of mortgage securities have an average yield of 1.56% and a duration of over 10 years.
    • As the Fed raised interest rates, these mortgage securities fell in value.
    • The update was that the bank sold $21B of these securities at a $1.8B loss, and the bank was raising $2.25B in equity and debt.
    • The update indicated that there is a mismatch between bank assets and liabilities in terms of duration.
  • Clearly, the bank forecasted that there would be no inflation and interest rates would stay at zero for over 10 years.  If only they had listened to The Arora Report.  The Arora Report was the first to predict that inflation and interest rates would rise.  The Arora Report even gave buy signals in ZYX Buy and ZYX Allocation on inverse leveraged bond ETF TBT.  Bond prices fall when yields rise.
  • As the run on the bank started, Peter Thiel, a major Silicon Valley investor, lit the match by asking his portfolio companies to withdraw funds from SIVB.
  • The concern is that banks all over the globe might have a mismatch between the duration of assets and liabilities.
  • The Arora Report gave you an early warning.  Please see the Morning Capsule dated March 8 showing that regional bank stocks were dropping.
  • At this time, it is not clear if the drop in bank stocks all across the globe is a reason for major concern or an opportunity to buy these stocks.  Prudent investors should keep a close watch on regional bank ETF KRE.
  • The VUD indicator is the most sensitive measure of net supply demand in real-time. The orange represents net supply and the green represents net demand.
  • The VUD indicator is orange, indicating a net supply of SIVB stock.
  • Money is rushing into the safety of U.S. Treasuries.  With the rush of money, Treasury bond prices are going up and yields are falling. 

Rumors

There are rumors that large financial institutions are looking at purchasing SIVB.  This may be similar to the purchase of Bear Stearns by JP Morgan (JPM).

The Fed

In The Arora Report analysis, if the bank contagion starts spreading, the Fed will have no choice but to rapidly cut rates to increase the value of securities held by banks.  

Jobs Report

The most prominent takeaway from the jobs report is that wages have cooled.  Here are the details:

  • Nonfarm payrolls came at 311K vs. 205K consensus.
  • Private payrolls came at 265K vs. 203K consensus.
  • Unemployment rate came at 3.6% vs. 3.4% consensus.
  • Average hourly earnings came at 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus.
  • Average work week came at 34.5 hours vs. 34.6 hours consensus.

Even though wages have cooled, the highest quality number in the report is nonfarm payrolls, which came significantly above consensus.  Nothing in this report is going to change the Fed’s course, irrespective of what momo gurus say. 

The next big economic report is CPI next week. Also due are PPI and retail sales.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is 🔒 (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

Gold

Money is rushing into the safety of gold. 

The momo crowd is 🔒 gold in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 gold in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

Iran and Saudi Arabia have agreed to resume relations. Both are increasingly aligning with Russia and China.  This has negative implications for the U.S. 

Smart money is 🔒 oil on the news.

The momo crowd is 🔒 oil in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin fell below $20,000.  The momo crowd is buying the dip and has now moved bitcoin above $20,000.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is 🔒 and will depend on if the contagion from SIVB is contained or if it spreads.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $1846, silver futures are at $20.46, and oil futures are at $75.90.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 3929 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4000, 4200, and 4318: support levels are 3950, 3860, and 3770.

DJIA futures are down 22 points.

Protection Bands And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding 🔒 in cash or treasury bills or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of 🔒, and short term hedges of 🔒. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

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It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

 

INVESTORS BE CAREFUL ABOUT FLAWED RECESSION ANALYSIS

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Flawed Recession Analysis

Please click here for a chart of industrial select sector ETF XLI.

Note the following:

  • The chart shows the high that industrial stocks made in January 2022.
  • The chart shows that industrials are only 5% from the high even though the stock market is down significantly more.
  •  There are four parts to the business cycle:
    • Early cycle
    • Mid cycle
    • Late cycle
    • Recession
  • Right now, the economy is in the late cycle.
  • Historically, industrial stocks do poorly in the late cycle.  The reason is that in a recession, their earnings are hit hard.
  • The fact that industrial stocks are close to the high is being used by many analysts as proof that there will be no recession.  The analysts cite 50 – 100 years worth of data to prove their case.
  • Analysts are correct about the history, but their conclusion of no recession based on the performance of industrial ETF XLI is wrong.  The reason is the composition of XLI and special circumstances. Let us examine the top 10 holdings of XLI.
    • Four are benefiting from increased defense spending and aerospace. The four are RTX, BA, LMT, and GE.  RTX and BA are in the ZYX Buy Change Model Portfolio.  Aerospace and defense ETF ITA is in the ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio.  Defense and aerospace are attractive sectors.  To learn why aerospace and defense are attractive sectors, listen to the recording of the live event titled “A Forward Look At Investing 2023 – 2030” in the Arora Ambassador Club.
    • GE has done especially well after the spinoff of its healthcare division GEHC.  GEHC is in ZYX Buy as a long term position in the portfolio that surrounds the core model portfolio.  There are nice gains on this position in a short time.
    • Union Pacific (UNP) is a railroad.  It recently fired its CEO, and several activists are in the company agitating for change.  UNP is a special case.
    • Deere (DE) makes agriculture equipment.  DE is benefiting from government spending on infrastructure and also from high agriculture crop prices.
    • Caterpillar (CAT) makes construction equipment.  CAT is also benefiting from government infrastructure spending.
    • Eaton (ETN) makes electrical equipment and components.  It is benefiting from electrification for electric vehicles.
    • The other two components are UPS and HON. UPS has done well because it restructured its operations.  HON is partially benefiting from defense, aerospace, and infrastructure spending.
  • The foregoing shows that XLI is benefiting from special circumstances and does not reflect the overall economy.  For these reasons, a conclusion from the performance of XLI alone that there will not be a recession is simply wrong.  This is an example as to why investors need to be very careful about the analysis from gurus highlighted in the media.  

Jobless Claims

Initial claims came at 211K vs. 198K consensus.  From the Morning Capsules you know that initial claims have been very low, typically under 200K.  Stocks immediately jumped on the release of this data.  The buying is especially aggressive in tech stocks and junk stocks.  Investors are celebrating a jump over 200K. 

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is 🔒 stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 stocks in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is 🔒 gold in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 gold in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is 🔒 oil in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 oil in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is range bound.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is 🔒.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates and bonds are range bound.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $1826, silver futures are at $20.18, and oil futures are at $77.08.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 4004  as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4200, 4318, and 4400: support levels are 3950, 3860, and 3770.

DJIA futures are up 87 points.

 

RECESSION FEARS RISE AFTER POWELL’S TESTIMONY BUT MOMO CROWD BUYS STOCKS

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Recession Fear

Please click here for a chart of regional banking ETF KRE.

Note the following:

  • Powell will testify in front of a House committee starting at 10am ET.  By law, his prepared statement has to be the same that he gave to the Senate.
  • We will be carefully listening to how Powell answers questions.
  • The jobs report is on Friday.  Could Powell already know the data and that is what made him so careful to make sure the momo gurus could not twist his words?
  • An easy way to understand the impact of what Powell said is to look at the stocks of regional banks.
  • The chart shows the impact of Powell’s testimony on regional bank stocks. Unlike large banks, regional banks don’t engage in activities such as trading, foreign exchange, and investment banking.
  • Regional banks are very dependent on local economies.  Their source of income is loans to local businesses.  Many regional banks are heavily exposed to homebuilders, construction, and real estate.
  • Typically, regional bank deposits are short term, but the loans they make are long term.  Normally, this works because short term rates are lower than long term rates, and regional banks get to keep the difference, known as net interest margin.  
  • After Powell’s testimony, the yield curve became even more inverted. The  6-month Treasury bill is yielding 5.29%, whereas 10-year Treasury is yielding 3.94%.  For the sake of developing a good understanding, consider this simple example.
    • If a regional bank pays 5.29% on a six month deposit and lends the money at 3.94% for 10 years, it is easy to see that the bank will lose money on the loan.
    • Of course, regional banks are holding the line and not paying competitive rates on deposits to maintain profitability.  The result is that they are beginning to lose deposits.  To attract deposits, in due course, they will have to pay competitive rates on deposits.  This will severely impact their ability to lend.
  • As a result of the inversion, regional banks have no incentive to lend money.  As a result, local businesses do not get the financing they need, and as this process continues, it ultimately leads to a recession. 
  • The yield curve continues to further invert. We have previously shared with you that the most important yield curve that investors should watch is the difference between 10-year and 2-year Treasuries.  Now, the yield curve is inverted by 1.092%. The last time this happened, Paul Volcker was chair of the Fed.
  • The probability of a 50 basis point hike in the upcoming Fed meeting is going higher.
  • JOLTS data will be released at 10am ET and may move the market.
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ADP

ADP is the largest private payroll processor in the country.  ADP uses its data to give an advanced glimpse of the employment picture.

ADP employment change came at 242K vs. 195K consensus. This data indicates that the jobs picture continues to be strong and that there is a need for further rate hikes.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is 🔒 stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is 🔒 gold in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API data shows that crude oil inventories fell by 3.835M barrels vs. consensus of a draw of 0.308M barrels.

The momo crowd is 🔒 oil in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has fallen below the key level of $22,000 on Powell’s testimony.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is 🔒 as it will depend on JOLTS and Powell’s answers to questions.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is  stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $1817, silver futures are at $20.15, and oil futures are at $77.13.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 3988  as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4000, 4200, and 4318: support levels are 3950, 3860, and 3770.

DJIA futures are up 4 points.

 

WALL STREET POSITIONED FOR A RALLY GOING INTO POWELL’S TESTIMONY

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Positioned For A Rally

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

  • The chart shows that the stock market has rallied from the 200-day moving average.
  • The chart shows that the stock market is now at the bottom band of the support/resistance zone.
  • RSI on the chart shows that the stock market can go either way.
  • Powell’s testimony in front of a Senate committee will start at 10am ET.  In addition to the prepared testimony, how Powell answers questions from senators will be important.  Expect progressives to push him to cut rates.
  • At this time, nobody in the public knows what Powell is going to say or how he is going to answer the questions.  For this reason, prudent investors are being careful.  However, Wall Street is positioned for a rally.
  • The positioning for a rally is based on two factors.
    • Bounce from the 200-day moving average
    • Confidence in the ability of momo gurus to twist Powell’s words to persuade the momo crowd to buy stocks
  • For the bulls, the equation is simple.  If Powell is hawkish – buy a little.  If Powell is dovish – buy aggressively.
  • Positive positioning also means that if the stock market starts going down, a vicious selloff can quickly take hold because those who have bought in the last few days will want to lock in profits and sell.
  • Understanding positioning can give you an edge.  Those interested in next-level information on positioning may consider listening to the podcast titled “Market Mechanics: Positioning.”
  • After Powell’s testimony and market reaction, there may be a need to adjust the protection band.  Having said that, based on what is known now, the protection band offers the right balance between various cross currents at this time.

China

China’s President Xi directly made negative remarks about the U.S.  China’s foreign minister Qin Gang also made a very negative statement about the U.S.

House Speaker Kevin McCarthy is canceling his plan to visit Taiwan to avoid China’s anger.  Instead, he will meet Taiwan’s president in the U.S.

In The Arora Report’s analysis, worsening relations between the world’s two largest economies have negative implications for investors. Right now, the momo crowd is oblivious – they are focused on the bounce from the 200 day moving average.

Layoffs

There is a report that Facebook parent META is about to announce additional layoffs of thousands of workers. META stock is jumping on the news.  Previously META laid off 11,000 workers.

By some estimates, tech companies have laid off 120,000 workers in 2023.  In spite of these layoffs, tech companies remain bloated.  This is a result of free money that existed for years, especially during the pandemic.  Even though non-profitable tech stocks have bounced, expect many of the present day companies to not exist a few years from now as their business models are based on free money.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is 🔒 stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is 🔒 gold in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is 🔒 oil in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is range bound.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is 🔒 as it will depend on what Powell says.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $1841, silver futures are at $20.81, and oil futures are at $79.94.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 4057  as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4200, 4318, and 4400: support levels are 4000, 3950, and 3860.

See also  POWELL RALLY VANISHES, QUALCOMM HEIGHTENS APPLE CONCERN, MOTHER OF ALL REPORTS AHEAD

DJIA futures are up 15 points.

 

STOCK MARKET WAITING FOR POWELL TESTIMONY AND JOBS REPORT, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE HYPE, OPEC SPLIT

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Artificial Intelligence

Please click here for a chart of semiconductor ETF SMH.

Note the following:

  • Artificial intelligence (AI) hype is in full bloom as more and more people use ChatGPT.
  • A good way to play the AI boom is by buying certain semiconductor stocks such as Nvidia (NVDA) and AMD (AMD).  There is a list of 18 stocks that will benefit from AI that merit close watching.  You can access the list from the top menu in ZYX Buy and ZYX Short.
  • Those that focus on ETFs are buying semiconductor ETF SMH.  SMH is in the Model Portfolio of ZYX Allocation.
  • Even without the AI hype, semiconductors are a leading sector.  A move in semiconductors is often an early indicator for the rest of the stock market.  
  • The chart shows that semiconductors have moved above the top support zone after dipping into the support zone last week. This is a bullish signal.
  • The chart shows that the inverse head and shoulders pattern is still in play in semiconductors.  This is a bullish pattern.
  • The chart shows that RSI is on a buy signal for semiconductors.
  • Bullishness on semiconductors aside, two key events for investors are ahead.
    • Powell will testify in the Senate on Tuesday and in the House on Wednesday.
    • The mother of all reports, the jobs report, will be released on Friday.
  • Expectations are for Powell to be hawkish.  If Powell is anything but hawkish, expect the momo crowd to aggressively buy stocks.
  • Expect progressives in Congress to push Powell to stop increasing rates and even cut rates.  Depending upon how Powell answers, there is a potential trigger for more buying in stocks.
  • Expect continued buying by 200 day moving average believers from the signal last week.  For details please read the Capsules from last week.
  • The momo crowd historically buys ahead of the jobs report on hope strategy.
  • Expect the 0DTE crowd to become aggressive in call buying if the stock market starts moving up. It is important for both long term investors and short term traders to understand how 0DTEs are impacting the stock market and messing up many traditional signals.  
  • For those wanting next level information, the podcast titled “Market Mechanics: Understand Zero-Day Options To Gain An Edge” is in post production and will be released shortly.
  • Amid all of this bullishness, do not lose sight of the following important facts:
    • Interest rates are likely to be higher for longer.
    • Bullish investors are now focused on 2024 earnings.  In The Arora Report analysis, the bullishness about 2024 earnings is premature. 
    • Valuations are too high relative to interest rates and future earnings.
  • As an actionable item, the protection band provides you with guideposts, taking into account the probabilities of various bullish and bearish scenarios at this time.

China

China has announced that its target for GDP growth is 5%.  This is less than expected.  Foreign money has been rushing into China on China reopening trade.  Let us see if some foreign money starts leaving China after this GDP target.

The lower than expected GDP target also means less need for government stimulus. Investors are addicted to government stimulus and were expecting significant government stimulus going forward.  

If investing in Chinese stocks and ETFs, prudent investors should keep in mind the risk of China invading Taiwan even though the stock market is totally ignoring the risk. In some circles, the belief is that the window for China to attack Taiwan has passed due to aggressive U.S. support for Taiwan and the success of Ukraine against Russia.  In The Arora Report analysis, there is still a significant risk of China attacking Taiwan in the future. This means that the short term trades in Chinese stocks and ETFs may be fine, but new long term investments should be avoided.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is 🔒 stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is 🔒 gold in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

There are reports of serious internal discussions in U.A.E. about potentially leaving OPEC.  A split between U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia will be negative for oil prices.  Of course, a drop in oil prices will be good for the U.S. stock market.

The momo crowd is 🔒 oil in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is range bound.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is 🔒, but expect the market to open higher.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $1858, silver futures are at $21.24, and oil futures are at $78.55.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 4057  as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4200, 4318, and 4400: support levels are 4000, 3950, and 3860.

DJIA futures are up 7 points.

 

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Picture of Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

Picture of Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.

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