By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report. 

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

SCALE IN ON TRUMP HOPIUM DIPS – WATCH NVIDIA AS AN INDICATOR, BIG CHINA STIMULUS

Nov 8, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Nvidia As An Indicator

Please click here for a chart of Nvidia stock (NVDA).

Note the following:

• The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.  The chart of NVDA stock is being used to illustrate the point.
• The chart shows that NVDA has broken out.
• RSI on the chart shows that NVDA has room to run.
• Nvidia will report earnings on Nov. 20 after the market close.  Historically, NVDA stocks sees heavy buying before earnings. In addition to the core position in NVDA, which is long from $12.55, there is also a trade around position in NVDA in ZYX Buy.
• The chart shows the top support zone.  This top support zone is very significant as an indicator for the entire market, not just NVDA stock.
• For the time being, as a simple short cut, investors can use Nvidia as an indicator.  As long as NVDA stock does not break below the top support zone, investors’ stance towards the stock market should be bullish.  The short cut is helpful but consider relying on the highly sophisticated, adaptive, ZYX Asset Allocation Model with inputs in 10 categories.
• The Arora Report call is to scale in by buying stocks and ETF’s, not just NVDA, as they dip in the buy zones until a time when Trump hopium comes close to meeting reality.
• In The Arora Report analysis, the time to take profits will be just before the Trump hopium comes close to meeting reality.  
• The stock market is moving based on the difference between Wall Street positioning going into the election and the election result.  In The Arora Report analysis, the main cause of the rip roaring rally after the election is two-fold:
  • Wall Street was not positioned for the margin of Trump’s victory.
  • Wall Street was not positioned for a potential red sweep.  As of this writing, there is a high probability of a red sweep, but it is not yet confirmed.  A red sweep will take place if Republicans take control of the House.
• Based on anecdotal evidence, it is difficult for many investors to put their arms around the current rally and The Arora Report’s call to buy the dips.  For those who want next level information on this subject, we have started work on a podcast titled “Opportunities From Trump Hopium.”  The podcast will be in Arora Ambassador Club.  If you are not a member of Arora Ambassador Club, please click here to fill out the form and get on the waitlist.
• In the early trade, the Trump rally is taking a breather for two reasons:
  • Investors’ disappointment from China stimulus first impacted Asian markets, then moved to Europe, and now to the U.S.  See the section below for details.
  • In the very very short term, the stock market is overbought.
• The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment – Prelim will be released at 10am ET.  It may be market moving.
• In The Arora Report analysis, consumer sentiment has moved up significantly after Trump’s election.   
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Big China Stimulus

China has announced a big stimulus of $1.4T.  The stimulus will provide swaps for debt ridden local governments’ off balance sheet liabilities.  The size of the stimulus is greater than the consensus.  For this reason, it should have been positive, but in The Arora Report analysis, investors are reacting negatively because the stimulus did not include any fiscal measures to boost the economy.  

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and NVDA.

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is being bought on hope that whales will take advantage of low liquidity during the weekend to run bitcoin up over $80,000.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5998 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6017, 6131, and 6256: support levels are 5926, 5748, and 5622.

DJIA futures are up 36 points.

Gold futures are at $2704, silver futures are at $31.85, and oil futures are at $71.36.

Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.  The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.  The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.  A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

BONDS AND FED FRONT AND CENTER AS BONDS APPROACH BOTTOM SUPPORT ZONE AFTER TRUMP WIN

Nov 7, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Bonds Fall On Trump Win

Please click here for a chart of 20+ year Treasury bond ETF (TLT).

Note the following:

• After Trump’s win, bonds are front and center.
• The chart shows when the contrary Arora call was made that bonds would fall.  That call was made at a time when everyone was predicting that bonds would rise.  That important call has proven spot on.
• The chart shows when the Arora call was made about the election.  We wrote in the Morning Capsule on October 8, “In the event of a one party sweep, TLT can potentially fall to the bottom support zone.”
• The chart shows that the second Arora call on bonds has proven accurate after Trump’s win.
• The chart shows when Trump won the election.
• The chart shows that on Trump’s win, TLT gapped down and opened close to the top and of the bottom support zone.  Yesterday’s bar does not show premarket data.  In the premarket, TLT touched the top band of the support zone.  On The Arora Report charts, premarket data is included on the current day, but not on the previous days.  This methodology provides the most clarity.
• The FOMC will announce its rate decision at 2pm ET, followed by Powell’s press conference at 2:30pm ET.
• The consensus is that the Fed will cut rates by 25 bps.
• In The Arora Report analysis, the Fed could not possibly be happy about the large drop in bonds after the last rate cut.  We will be paying careful attention to what Powell says about the drop in bonds in his press conference.  If Powell says anything about this subject, it will be the most important new information that can be gleaned today.  
• Most institutional investors and many retail investors have suffered massive losses in bonds.  It is important to remember that the largest amount of money is still managed using the 60/40 portfolio as a starting point.  This means 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds.  The Arora Report has long shown that following the protection band is heads and shoulders above following the 60/40 portfolio.  Nonetheless, the dogma of 60/40 remains popular.  This is the reason we publish information on 60/40 portfolios in the Morning Capsule.  For those following the 60/40 portfolio, The Arora Report call has been to limit the duration to less than five years.  The Arora Report call on duration has been consistent at a time when a vast majority of money managers were significantly increasing duration. The longer the bond duration, the larger the losses investors have suffered.
• Thank you for all of your compliments on the three Arora calls outlined above for saving you from large losses that most investors are experiencing.
• In The Arora Report analysis, after Trump’s election the Fed is faced with two important issues:
  • In The Arora Report analysis, depending upon how Trump implements his tariff plan, it may add 0.5% – 1% to inflation.  
  • According to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, Trump’s tax plans will increase the national deficit by $7.8T over the next 10 years.  All of this deficit will have to be financed by borrowing.  This will increase the supply of Treasuries.  A higher supply of Treasuries will lead to higher interest rates on the long end, unless the Fed decides to manipulate it with quantitative easing or some other artificial method.
• At a time when the stock market is at an all time high and bonds are suffering major losses, there is not good news on the economic data front.  
  • Unit labor costs are spiking.  Q3 Unite Labor Costs – Preliminary came at 1.9% vs. 0.5% consensus.
  • As of this writing, the momo crowd is oblivious.  However, expect smart money to pay attention to this important, highly inflationary data.   Also expect the Fed to pay attention to this data.
• Initial jobless claims came at 221K vs. 222K consensus.  This indicates that the employment picture remains strong, especially at the low end.
• In The Arora Report analysis, there is another important question that the Fed will have to face.  Trump plans to deport undocumented immigrants.  According to the Department of Homeland Security, there are about 11M undocumented immigrants in the U.S.  What happens to labor supply at the low end if 11M workers are taken out of the workforce?  What does it do to inflation?  What does it do to economic growth, and in turn the stock and bond markets? 
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

England

The Bank of England has cut interest rates.  The key interest has been reduced to 4.75% from 5%.

This is the first cut by a major central bank after Trump’s election.   Investors should keep an eye on how the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan act after Trump’s election.  Remember, the U.S. economy is intertwined with the global economy.  

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 59743 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6017, 6131, and 6256: support levels are 5926, 5748, and 5622.

DJIA futures are up 5 points.

Gold futures are at $2691, silver futures are at $31.68, and oil futures are at $71.24.

DEPLOY CASH AND REDUCE HEDGES, SHORT TERM OPPORTUNITIES AT HAND, PREPARE FOR LONG TERM OPPORTUNITIES

Nov 6, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Deploy Cash And Reduce Hedges

In addition to Trump winning the presidency, here are the key points:

• Republicans have won control of the Senate.
• Mainstream media is calling control of the House too close to call.  However, betting markets are at a 90% probability of Republicans winning the House.
• If Republicans win the House, there will be a complete red sweep, allowing Trump to more easily implement his agenda.
• Trump is on track to win the popular vote. If Trump wins the popular vote, he will use that to overcome objections from Democrats.
• The prevailing wisdom is that Trump’s agenda will be highly inflationary.  However, in The Arora Report analysis, there are several things that Trump can easily do to prevent inflation from surging again while growing the economy and bringing manufacturing back to the U.S.
• On the other hand, if Trump embarks on a $2T cut in the Federal budget as he and Elon Musk said on the campaign trail, there is a 70% probability of a recession and the stock market falling 20% – 30%.  Trump has said that he would appoint Musk as the efficiency czar.  However, the probability of Trump embarking on such a program that he campaigned on is low.
• In The Arora Report analysis, investors will need to pay attention to how Trump implements his agenda.  The method of execution can be the difference between a 20% rise in the stock market versus a 20% drop in the stock market.  

Consider deploying cash and reducing hedges.  Consider making these moves slowly, taking advantage of opportunities that the market may present by scaling in.  Please see Trade Management Guidelines to learn how to scale in.

For details of the changes to cash and hedges, please scroll down to the section below titled “Protection Band And What To Do Now.”

Opportunities

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

• The chart shows in the early trade the stock market is technically breaking out.  We will be carefully watching to see if the breakout is sustained or if it fails.
• RSI on the chart shows there is room for the stock market to run higher.
• Investors need to be cognizant that after the initial euphoria of Trump’s win wears off, there may be a ‘sell the news’ reaction.
• In The Arora Report analysis, if there is a late ‘sell the news’ reaction, the dip should be bought.  
• Here are the money flows in various asset classes in the early trade after Trump’s victory:
  • Extremely positive in the dollar
  • Extremely positive in stocks
  • Very positive in bitcoin
  • Extremely negative in bonds
  • Negative in gold
  • Negative in oil
• Instead of acting out of emotion, consider taking a measured approach.  There are many short term opportunities, but they are suitable only for aggressive investors.  There have been a number of posts in the Real Time Feeds giving signals from both the long and short sides.  If you are not aggressive, be patient; there will be plenty of opportunities for investors who are not aggressive.
• In addition to short term opportunities, plenty of long term opportunities are developing.  There is no need to rush for long term opportunities.  Consider being patient and waiting for dips in the buy zones.
• The FOMC is meeting.  The Fed decision is ahead and may have a significant impact on the markets. 
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are extremely positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** buying stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** gold in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a build of 3.132M barrels vs. a consensus of a build of 1.8M barrels.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** oil in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying.  Crypto bulls are targeting $100,000 bitcoin in a short time.

Markets

Interest rates are spiking, and bonds are down over 1%.

The dollar is up about 1.8%.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5928 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6017, 6131, and 6256 : support levels are 5926, 5748, and 5622.

DJIA futures are up 1212 points.

Gold futures are at $2672, silver futures are at $31.25, and oil futures are at $70.12.

HERE IS HOW INVESTORS CAN CAPTURE OPPORTUNITIES FROM THE ELECTION

Nov 5, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

The Plan

Please click here for a chart of 20+ year Treasury bond ETF (TLT).

Note the following:

•  Going into the election, the most important chart is that of the bond market.  The reason is the reaction to the election from the bond market is likely to be correct compared to the first reaction from the stock market.
• The chart shows the contrary Arora call that bonds would fall when the Fed cut interest rates by 50 bps.  At the time of the contrary Arora call, everyone was predicting that bonds would go up.
• The chart shows that the Arora call has proven spot on.
• The chart shows that bonds are now at the bottom band of the top support zone.
• Consider keeping this chart handy and see if bonds rally above the top band of the top support zone or they break down and move towards the bottom support zone.
• In addition to understanding the chart of the bond market, the following is the essential foundation of how to capture opportunities after the election.
  • Wall Street positioning.  Positioning is an important Wall Street mechanic.  For those wanting a deeper understanding, listen to the podcast titled “Market Mechanics: Positioning.”
  • Retail investor positioning
  • Your positioning
• Wall Street is positioned for the following:
  • A significant rally in stocks, bonds, gold, and the dollar after the election
  • Senate control switching from Democrats to Republicans
  • House control switching from Republicans to Democrats
  • An even probability of a Trump win or a Harris win.
• Here is the positioning of retail investors:
  • Republican retail investors are heavily positioned in the Trump trade.
  • Democrat retail investors are heavily positioned in the Harris trade.
• The problem with positioning of retail investors is that if their candidate wins, they will do fine.  However, if the other candidate wins, they will incur massive losses. This is not the way to maximize the wealth you generate over your lifetime. It is important to keep your politics separate from your investing.  
• In The Arora Report analysis, Wall Street is oblivious to the simple fact that the stock market has been front running the election.  
  • Historically, there is anxiety and a pullback before the election in September and October.  Historically, when the election is over, the overhang of anxiety lifts irrespective of who wins, and the stock market rallies.
  • This time is different because there has not been any anxiety, and there was not a pullback in September and October.  The reason is that Wall Street has been front running the election.
  • There is no recent historical precedent of Wall Street front running the election.
  • Historically smart money uses a combination of hedging and lightening up positions before the election.  This time is different in that smart money has been aggressively hedging, more than any other recent election, but has not been lightening up positions.
  • Even though there is no precedent of election front running, there are hundreds of precedents of Wall Street front running less important events.  A typical reaction after the event is over is to sell the news.
• In The Arora Report analysis, prudent investors should be aware that there is a fair probability of a sell the news reaction.  However, the probability of a rally is higher because of the power of the momo crowd.  Those who want deeper knowledge may consider listening to the podcast titled “Front Running The Election – Money Flows And Sharp Rise In Debt.”
• Going into the election, investors should be very cognizant of the positioning of their own portfolios.  The Arora Report portfolios are well balanced between the Harris trade and the Trump trade.  
• The Arora Report portfolios are also sufficiently protected with the protection band and there is sufficient cash to take advantage of new opportunities.  Investors who are not holding enough cash will not be able to take advantage of new opportunities.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5756 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5926 and 6017: support levels are 5748, 5622, and 5500.

DJIA futures are up 19 points.

Gold futures are at $2753, silver futures are at $32.93, and oil futures are at $71.84.

PAY ATTENTION TO WARREN BUFFETT ACTIONS, NVIDIA CELEBRATION, TRUMP TRADE PULLING BACK

Nov 4, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Cash Is Not Trash

Please click here for a chart of Warren Buffett’s company Berkshire Hathaway stock (BRK.B).

Note the following:

• The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.  The chart of BRK.B is being used to illustrate the point.
• Warren Buffett is one of the best investors.  Prudent investors should pay attention to his actions.
• The chart shows BRK.B stock has pulled back to the top of the mini support zone.
• The chart shows that BRK.B stock has experienced a decent pullback from the resistance zone.
• At a time when the stock market is near an all time high and the momo crowd is not only fully invested but is also nearly fully margined, Berkshire Hathaway’s cash pile hits a record high of $325B.  Clearly, Warren Buffett is not listening to momo gurus who have convinced their followers that cash is trash.
• Buffett did not buy back any BRK.B stock in the third quarter.  In The Arora Report analysis, this indicates that Buffett thinks the stock is too expensive.  Investors have been running up BRK.B stock not on fundamentals but on sentiment. 
• Berkshire Hathaway cut its stake in Apple (AAPL) by 25%.  Instead of buying AAPL stock, Buffett has chosen to reduce the position and pay billions of dollars in taxes.  Clearly, Buffett is not persuaded that Apple’s efforts in AI are about to deliver big results.
• In The Arora Report analysis, Buffett is likely looking at the valuation of Apple and the China risk.  
  • AAPL stock is trading at a forward PE of approximately 30.  The 10 year average PE is 20.  
  • About 20% of Apple’s sales come from China.  If Trump is elected, there is a fair probability that Apple may become a pawn in geopolitical maneuvers.
• At The Arora Report, we understand and acknowledge that investors love AAPL stock.  Before sending hate mail for not writing positively about Apple in this Morning Capsule, keep in mind two facts:
  • Buffett has praised Apple, but due to slowing growth and the high valuation, Buffett is being prudent.
  • The Arora Report’s recommendation of AAPL stock has an average price of  $4.68.  AAPL is trading at $221.40 as of this writing in the premarket.  This represents a gain of 4631%.  Due to the large unrealized gain, AAPL is a very large position in the ZYX Buy Model Portfolio.  Investors may want to pay attention to the risk reward matrix in ZYX Buy regarding the present status of AAPL.
• Nvidia holders are celebrating.  Nvidia (NVDA) will be added to the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) on November 8, and Intel (INTC) will be removed.  Also being added is paint maker Sherwin-Williams (SHW) and Dow (DOW).  Investors should note the following:
  • On the average, a stock loses about 4.8% one year after being added to DJIA.
  • Very little money is tied to DJIA in a passive manner.  As such, these additions and deletions do not have the same impact as additions and deletions to S&P 500.
  • Typically, only the momo crowd buys on additions to DJIA.
• We understand that just like AAPL, investors love NVDA.  Before sending us hate mail for not writing positively about Nvidia in this Morning Capsule, keep in mind that The Arora Report’s recommendation of NVDA has an average price of $12.55.  NVDA stock is trading at $137.35 as of this writing in the premarket, representing a gain of 994%.  NVDA is in the ZYX Buy Model Portfolio.  The latest podcast in Arora Ambassador Club addresses Nvidia, among other stocks.
• The Trump trade is pulling back on recent polling data indicating Harris could take Iowa, traditionally a red state.  Investors should remember to separate their politics from their investing to maximize returns.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and AAPL.

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The dollar is being sold as the Trump trade pulls back.  Since gold is priced in dollars, this is leading to a higher gold price.  

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

Oil is moving up for two reasons:

• Iran is talking about retaliation against Israel.

• OPEC+ has pushed back its December production increase.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing selling as bitcoin is part of the Trump trade.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5759 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5926 and 6017: support levels are 5748, 5622, and 5500.

DJIA futures are down 51 points.

Gold futures are at $2757, silver futures are at $32.95, and oil futures are at $71.42.

To take a free 30-day trial to paid services to gain access to more opportunities, please click here.

Markets can generate substantial wealth for knowledgeable investors. NOW YOU TOO CAN ALSO SPECTACULARLY SUCCEED AT MEETING YOUR GOALS WITH THE HELP OF THE ARORA REPORT. You are receiving less than 2% of the content from our paid services. …TO RECEIVE REMAINING 98% INCLUDING MANY ATTRACTIVE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES,
TAKE A FREE TRIAL TO PAID SERVICES.

Please click here to take advantage of a FREE 30 day trial.

Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.