By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora
Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report.
Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’
OPPORTUNITIES FOR INVESTORS AS AI FRENZY SHIFTS FROM SEMICONDUCTORS TO SOFTWARE
Nov 22, 2024
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
AI Frenzy Shifts
Please click here for a chart comparing semiconductor ETF (SMH) and software ETF (IGV).
Note the following:
- The Arora Report previously shared with you that the next stage of AI would benefit software stocks. This is beginning to happen now.
- The chart shows software ETF IGV has moved up since the presidential election.
- The chart shows that IGV has outperformed semiconductor ETF SMH by about 10% since the election.
- The Arora Report algorithms show money is flowing out of semiconductors and into software.
- AI allows work processes to be totally reimagined compared to work processes of today. Work processes of today are implemented with legacy software. In The Arora Report analysis, it is an order of magnitude more efficient to use reimagined processes with AI native software.
- In The Arora Report analysis, there is a battle brewing among software companies for market share when it comes to AI capabilities. Legacy software companies have existing customers and cash to invest in AI. Legacy software companies are bolting on AI offerings. AI native software companies have an edge technologically. However, they do not have existing market share. Promising AI native software companies are privately held.
- The foregoing tells us that AI will end up decimating some software companies while others will go to new heights.
- Investors need to look forward. Right now, most investors who are investing in software companies are looking backwards.
- Looking forward to 2030, the best way to capture AI opportunities in software companies is to combine the following three:
- Profiting from a base position in a software ETF. The Arora Report’s software ETF of choice is IGV. IGV is covered in The Arora Report’s ZYX Allocation.
- Profiting from individual software company stocks that are evolving and keeping pace with AI developments and retaining and attracting customers. An example is PLTR, which was recently added to the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.
- Profiting from shorting software companies whose business models are being hurt by AI. Signals on such companies are given in ZYX Short.
- A judicious combination of the foregoing will produce significantly higher risk adjusted returns, compared to using only one of the three in your investments.
- In the early trade, the momo crowd is aggressively buying junk stocks.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
China
Chinese stocks are ultra cheap. The rally in Chinese stock has stalled after Trump’s re-election. Trump wants to impose 60% tariffs on Chinese goods. In the face of Trump’s threat, China’s 10 year note auction saw strong demand. The pricing was close to the record low yield. This data point indicates that investors believe China will manage just fine with Trump’s tariffs.
In The Arora Report analysis, it is important to keep track of such data points. If there are more such data points, it will be time to step into Chinese stocks because they are so cheap.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Alphabet (GOOG) and Nvidia (NVDA).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is approaching $100K. SEC Chair Gensler has said that he will resign on Trump’s inauguration day. Gensler has been anti-bitcoin. Even though Gensler’s resignation was expected, as Trump has said he would replace Gensler, buying came into bitcoin on the news.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.
The dollar is stronger.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 5965 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6017, 6131, and 6256: support levels are 5926, 5748, and 5622.
DJIA futures are up 24 points.
Gold futures are at $2696, silver futures are at $31.17, and oil futures are at $69.65.
Protection Band And What To Do Now
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular. The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
Traditional 60/40 Portfolio
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
NVIDIA AGGRESSIVELY BOUGHT, RUSSIA FIRES FIRST INTERCONTINENTAL BALLISTIC MISSILE, ADANI INDICTED
Nov 21, 2024
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Nvidia Dips Aggressively Bought
Please click here for a chart of Nvidia stock (NVDA).
Note the following:
- The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of NVDA stock is being used to illustrate the point.
- The chart shows the dip in NVDA stock has been aggressively bought.
- The chart shows that NVDA stock dipped into the support zone after earnings. The buying in NVDA this morning has been extremely aggressive as illustrated by the fact that NVDA traded as high as $149.40 vs. the prior high of $149.77.
- The chart shows the NVDA bounced from the support zone to the resistance zone.
- As of this writing, NVDA stock is very volatile.
- In The Arora Report analysis, a tell for the stock market will be to see if NVDA stock breaks out or retraces back to the support zone.
- Nvidia reported earnings better than the consensus numbers, better than some whisper numbers, but less than the top end of the whisper numbers.
- Overheating was a big concern going into earnings. It appears that most of the overheating issues have been resolved. Here are the key points from Nvidia earnings:
- Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said, “The age of AI is in full steam, propelling a global shift to Nvidia computing.”
- Blackwell demand is likely to exceed supply in FY26.
- Hopper demand is also very strong
- Nvidia is working on the next data center architecture that will improve production yields.
- Nvidia expects enterprise AI, industrial AI, and robotics to continue to increase.
- Nvidia beat on revenue.
- Data center revenue and automotive revenue hit records.
- Gaming revenue increased 15% from last year.
- Professional visualization revenue increased 17% from last year.
- The fact that NVDA dips are being aggressively bought is helping the overall stock market.
- Also helping the stock market this morning is bitcoin (BTC.USD) approaching $100K.
- Sentiment is extremely positive.
- Investors are buying stocks and cryptos with total abandon. If it was not for the positive seasonality and year end chase, this kind of reckless buying would have resulted in increasing the protection band because extreme positive sentiment is historically a sell signal. However, The Arora Report call remains to buy the dips because the year end chase is likely to trump all other factors. In year end chase, even bearish money managers aggressively buy stocks to keep up with their benchmarks.
- Initial jobless claims came at 213K vs. 221K consensus. This indicates that the job market is very strong. This is another data point that shows that the Fed should not have been cutting interest rates as aggressively as it did. In the short term, the Fed’s actions have poured gasoline over the fire to aggressively buy stocks and cryptos.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
First ICBM Fired
The first operational intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) was developed by Russia in 1957, followed by development by the U.S. in 1959. To the best of our knowledge, Russia has fired the first ICBM in battle since its invention. This is Russia’s response to Ukraine firing U.S. and British long range missiles on Russian territory.
In The Arora Report analysis, both Russia and Ukraine are escalating the conflict to gain an advantage before Trump stops the war. These developments have major implications for investors. For those wanting next level information, please listen to the podcast titled “THE END GAME IN UKRAINE.”
Problem For India
Gautam Adani is the most important industrialist in India. He is also very closely allied with India’s Prime Minister Modi. The U.S. Department of Justice has just indicted Adani for bribes in solar contracts.
The Indian stock market has fallen on the news. In The Arora Report analysis, some foreign money is going to flow out of India on this development. Members of The Arora Report have very large profits on India positions. The Arora Report call has been to steadily take partial profits on India positions Fairfax India Holdings (FFXDF), India earnings ETF (EPI), India small cap ETF (SMIN), and India growth leaders ETF (GLIN). The call yesterday evening was to take more partial profits on India positions.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Apple (AAPL), and NVDA.
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Alphabet (GOOG).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is approaching $100K.
Markets
Interest rates are range bound.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 5963 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6017, 6131, and 6256: support levels are 5926, 5748, and 5622.
DJIA futures are up 167 points.
Gold futures are at $2668, silver futures are at $31.08, and oil futures are at $70.19.
8% MOVE EXPECTED IN NVIDIA AFTER EARNINGS – THE MOST IMPORTANT EVENT FOR THE STOCK MARKET
Nov 20, 2024
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Stock Market Direction
Please click here for a chart of Nvidia stock (NVDA).
Note the following:
- The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of NVDA stock is being used to illustrate the point.
- The chart shows NVDA stock has moved up against the low band of the resistance zone.
- RSI on the chart shows that there is room for a significant move in either direction.
- NVDA options implied volatility indicates an 8% move in either direction after earnings. Previously, options were implying a 9% move. Going into earnings options players have become more bullish on NVDA.
- Money is moving out of semiconductors and into software stocks as the AI frenzy shifts to software. Software ETF IGV is in the ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio. For investors wanting next level information on the shift in AI investing, listen to the podcast titled “EXCITEMENT OVER AI AGENTS SHIFTS AI FRENZY FROM SEMIS TO SOFTWARE” in Arora Ambassador Club.
- NVDA whisper numbers have continued to move up. Whisper numbers are the numbers analysts privately share with their best clients. Whisper numbers are different from the numbers the same analysts publish for public consumption. Stocks move based on the difference between reported numbers and whisper numbers.
- In The Arora Report analysis, there is wide dispersion among whisper numbers from different analysts. The difference between the lowest and the highest number is $7B. Due to such high dispersion, it is difficult to tell how the stock market is going to react, even to good earnings, unless they are a blowout.
- In The Arora Report analysis, this is a transition quarter for Nvidia as customers make a transition from H100 and H200 to Blackwell. This makes prediction difficult.
- At The Arora Report, we track dozens of data points regarding Nvidia. These data points are positive as of this writing.
- We will be carefully listening to the conference call. Of particular interest will be Nvidia’s comments on the reports of Blackwell chips overheating. It appears that the heating problem is contained to GB200, the high end AI chips and systems. Of particular interest is how long it is going to take to solve this particular overheating problem.
- Nvidia earnings are the most important event for the entire stock market. There is a perception on Wall Street that Nvidia earnings are more important than even the Fed.
- After Walmart (WMT) earnings, the concern about consumer spending was assuaged. However, the concern about consumer spending is back after Target (TGT) earnings. TGT stock is plunging about 16% as of this writing in the premarket. The reason is that the consumer is stretched and is being very careful. This is impacting many stocks in the market that depend on the consumer such as Macy’s (M) and Kohl’s (KSS).
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in NVDA, Microsoft (MSFT), and Meta (META).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOG).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN) and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
API crude inventories came at a build of 4.753M barrels vs. a consensus of a build of 0.8M barrels.
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
There is more excitement around bitcoin (BTC.USD) as options start trading on bitcoin ETF (IBIT). Options allow more leverage, allowing speculators to buy more bitcoin, and in the process, options can run bitcoin higher. Bitcoin is knocking at the door of $95K.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.
The dollar is stronger.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 5942 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6017, 6131, and 6256: support levels are 5926, 5748, and 5622.
DJIA futures are up 64 points.
Gold futures are at $2640, silver futures are at $31.23, and oil futures are at $69.87.
NOT WORLD WAR III BUT NEW RUSSIAN NUCLEAR DOCTRINE BRINGS SELLING IN STOCKS, WALMART BREAKS OUT
Nov 19, 2024
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
New Russian Nuclear Doctrine
Please click here for a chart of Walmart stock (WMT).
Note the following:
- The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of WMT is being used to illustrate the point.
- The U.S. economy is 70% consumer based. Walmart is the largest retailer in the U.S. For this reason, prudent investors pay attention to Walmart’s earnings.
- The chart shows WMT stock gapped up after earnings.
- The chart shows that WMT stock also gapped up on earnings in the prior two quarters.
- Walmart reported earnings better than the whisper numbers. Stocks move based on the difference between reported numbers and whisper numbers. Whisper numbers are the number analysts privately share with their best clients. Whisper numbers are different from the numbers the same analysts publish for public consumption.
- In The Arora Report analysis, the following are the most important points from Walmart earnings:
- Higher end consumers continue to shift to Walmart.
- E-commerce at Walmart, especially quick delivery, is growing rapidly.
- Margins are expanding.
- Walmart is gaining market share.
- In The Arora Report analysis, as good as Walmart is doing, investors need to be mindful of the very high valuation for a retailer. Walmart is trading at a trailing PE of 43. However, as Walmart’s earnings are growing, forward PE is 30, which is still expensive for a retailer.
- Walmart is in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio from an average price of $19.25. Members of The Arora Report, now have a gain of 353%.
- Prudent investors also watch earnings from home improvement retailer Lowe’s (LOW). Lowe’s earnings are a reflection of the consumer, especially remodeling of existing homes. Lowe’s earnings are slightly below whisper numbers. LOW is also in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio and is long from an average of $81.85. This represents a gain of 228%.
- In the early trade, markets are responding to the new Russian doctrine.
- Stocks are being sold.
- Gold and silver are being bought.
- Oil is being bought.
- The dollar is being bought.
- The yen is being bought.
- The new Russian doctrine brings the world closer to World War III. The new doctrine is in response to the U.S. allowing Ukraine to fire U.S. manufactured long range missiles on targets inside Russia.
- Prudent investors should note the following three elements of the new Russian doctrine.
- An attack on Russia by any country supported by a nuclear power will be considered a joint attack on Russia.
- A massive aerial attack could trigger a nuclear response from Russia.
- In reference to NATO, an aggression by a member of the coalition will be viewed as aggression by the entire bloc.
- In The Arora Report analysis, the new Russian doctrine is squarely directed at the U.S. The purpose appears to be to persuade Trump to stop supporting Ukraine and force Ukraine to cede territory in Eastern Ukraine to Russia. Further, in The Arora Report analysis, the ultimate solution is likely going to be the U.S. forcing Ukraine to give Eastern Ukraine to Russia as per Russian wishes. This has been a long standing Arora call. For those wanting next level information, listen to the podcast titled “THE END GAME IN UKRAINE.”
- For the first time ever, Ukraine has attacked a warehouse inside Russia using long range missiles manufactured by the U.S. The missile attack was conducted with Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS). The missiles are manufactured by Lockheed Martin (LMT), a major U.S. defense contractor. The targeted warehouse housed ammunition and missiles from North Korea. North Korea is promising 100K troops to fight for Russia in Ukraine.
- There is no change in the protection band at this time, but we are keeping a close eye on the situation.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Housing
New housing is beginning to weaken. Here is the just released data:
- Housing starts came at 1.311M vs. 1.34M consensus.
- Building permits came at 1.416M vs. 1.441M consensus.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Nvidia (NVDA),
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** stocks in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD)is range bound.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.
The dollar is range bound.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 5875 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5926, 6017, and 6131: support levels are 5748, 5622, and 5500.
DJIA futures are down 482 points.
Gold futures are at $2636, silver futures are at $31.35, and oil futures are at $68.98.
A MUST SEE CHART FOR PRUDENT INVESTORS, TRUMP TO HELP TESLA DOMINATE, NVIDIA HEAT PROBLEM
Nov 18, 2024
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
The Trump Trade
Please click here for a chart comparing biotech ETF (XBI) to Dogecoin (DOGE.USD).
Note the following:
- The chart shows that biotech XBI has lost 5.35% since Trump’s election. Companies in this ETF are producing innovative life saving drugs, employ brilliant scientists, own significant intellectual property, and are often bought out at large premiums.
- The chart shows that Dogecoin has gained 48.78% since Trump’s election. Dogecoin was initially developed as a joke. At one time, it was endorsed by Elon Musk; its name is the same as the acronym of Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency. The main use of Dogecoin is speculation by the meme crowd. Dogecoin has an active meme crowd community behind it.
- The contrast between the performance of XBI and Dogecoin shown on the chart is emblematic of, in large part, what investors are buying and selling in the wake of Trump’s re-election.
- On top of investors rushing into speculative assets, sentiment is extremely positive. Historically, extremely positive sentiment is a contrary indicator. In plain English, it means sell. As we have previously stated, sentiment is not a precise timing indicator.
- In spite of all the warning signals, The Arora Report call remains to buy the dips. There are two main reasons:
- There is an old saying on Wall Street that no one has ever been fired for losing clients’ money. However, money managers get fired for lagging far behind their benchmarks. No money manager, irrespective of his/her view of the market, wants to commit career suicide by not chasing the market at the year end. Bearish money managers who have missed out on this rally are likely to buy the dips and chase the stock market into the year end.
- Right now, hopium is at an extreme. There is nothing in the way of hopium. Since Trump is not yet president, there is no reality to confront hopium. Right now, the momo crowd is buying based on the best case of all of the positives that may come out of Trump’s policies, and they are ignoring all of the negatives.
- The plan is to start taking profits on new buys before hopium meets reality between Christmas and Trump’s inauguration.
- As a note of caution, this is not a call for wholesale buying. This is a call to buy on the margin based on the protection band.
- For those wanting next level information, listen to the podcast “OPPORTUNITIES FROM TRUMP HOPIUM: EIGHT INSIGHTS.”
- Trump’s transition team is starting the work to help those who helped Trump get elected. An example is the Trump team wanting to change the rules around self-driving cars in the U.S. to help Tesla (TSLA). Musk has been a big supporter of Trump. Over a period of time, expect many such moves from Trump’s team. As a full disclosure, The Arora Report gave a signal to buy TSLA after Trump’s win. The trade has been nicely profitable. The system has also triggered a signal for a trade around position in TSLA, but publication of the signal may be delayed because TSLA stock has gapped up significantly.
- Trump has appointed Chris Wright as the next Department of Energy Secretary. Wright is the CEO of Liberty Energy (LBRT). Liberty Energy is engaged in fracking. Wright is also on the board of smart modular reactor company Oklo (OKLO) that is backed by OpenAI founder Sam Altman. Money is flowing into gas and nuclear stocks on Wright’s appointment.
- The most important event for the market this week is Nvidia (NVDA) earnings that will be released on Wednesday after the close. This morning, NVDA is seeing aggressive selling because of a report of Blackwell chips heating up in data centers.
- In the early trade, retail investors are aggressively buying Trump stocks based on the weekend pump. Professional investors are front running retail investors as they hope to sell at higher prices to retail investors later.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), TSLA, and Apple (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in NVDA.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.
The dollar is stronger.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 5901 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5926, 6017, and 6131: support levels are 5748, 5622, and 5500.
DJIA futures are down 33 points.
Gold futures are at $2608, silver futures are at $31.06, and oil futures are at $67.64.
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Nigam Arora
Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.
Dr. Natasha Arora
Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.
