By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora
Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report.
Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’
AI AGENTS TO REPLACE HUMANS, BEST MARKET START FOR A NEW PRESIDENT SINCE 1985, TRUMP BANS DIGITAL DOLLAR, BIGGEST HIKE IN JAPAN IN 18 YEARS
Jan 24, 2025
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Replacing Humans With AI Agents
Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
- The chart shows that the market is breaking out above the micro resistance zone.
- The trigger for the breakout was Trump’s speech for Davos.
- The chart shows that the breakout is tenuous. A stronger breakout would have been more convincing.
- The chart shows the volume was low indicating a lack of conviction.
- RSI on the chart shows that the market is very overbought. Overbought markets tend to be vulnerable to a pull back.
- So far, since the inauguration of a new president, S&P 500 is having its best start since 1985. In 1985 Ronald Reagan was inaugurated. When Ronald Reagan was elected, there were a lot of concerns about his conservative and somewhat radical policies. Historians tell us that Reagan went on to become one of the most successful presidents in US history. The stock market under Reagan did extremely well, even though it included the 1987 stock market crash. In the 1987 crash, the stock market lost 20.47% in one day.
- In The Arora Report analysis, the future course of the market will depend on Trump’s statements. This morning there is relief that Trump has changed his stance and is now saying he would rather not impose tariffs on China. It is not only Trump’s statements but also the rumors about what Trump may say that are moving the market.
- Prudent investors should note that at this time when China and other nations are making great strides in developing digital currencies controlled by their central banks, Trump has issued an executive order to ban digital dollar. Presumably, the objective is to benefit cryptos at the expense of the dollar.
- Please be extra careful, if you are trading new cryptos. Since Trump’s inauguration there has been a flood of fake cryptos that have achieved very large valuations. Such cryptos are worth zero. Manipulators and pumpers are having a heyday.
- Artificial intelligence is taking another step forward. OpenAI has introduced Operator. Operator is an AI agent that has its own browser and can perform web related tasks autonomously. This is a big step forward to replace a large number of humans doing such tasks at present with AI agents. AI agents present numerous investing opportunities both from the long side and the short side. In due course, The Arora Report members will see signals to capture these opportunities. Those who want next level information will have podcasts in the Arora Ambassador Club.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Japan
Bank of Japan (BOJ) has announced the biggest rate hike in 18 years. You may recall the big drop in the stock market in August of 2024 when the carry trade blew up in anticipation of rate hikes by the Bank of Japan. This time, at least for the short term, it is all calm due to the Trump effect.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Tesla (TSLA), and Alphabet (GOOG).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), and Microsoft (MSFT).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and in Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Trump has announced a working group to evaluate buying cryptos as a strategic reserve. Initially, bitcoin fell on disappointment that Trump did not announce a strategic reserve — to bitcoin bulls, there is nothing to evaluate. The dip was aggressively bought.
Markets
Interest rates and bonds are range bound.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 6144 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6256, 6500, and 6700: support levels are 6131, 6017, and 5926.
DJIA futures are down 77 points.
Gold futures are at $2791, silver futures are at $31.53, and oil futures are at $75.06.
Protection Band And What To Do Now
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular. The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
Traditional 60/40 Portfolio
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
DIRECTION OF STOCK MARKET DEPENDS UPON TRUMP’S SPEECH, MUSK THROWS COLD WATER ON AI STARGATE
Jan 23, 2025
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Trump Key To Market
Please click here for a chart of semiconductor ETF (SMH).
Note the following:
- The chart shows yesterday semiconductor stocks attempted to break above the micro resistance zone on Stargate excitement.
- The chart shows semiconductor stocks have pulled back to the top of the micro resistance zone.
- Musk is throwing cold water on Stargate, claiming Stargate does not have enough money.
- As members of The Arora Report, you knew in advance to be skeptical. We wrote in yesterday’s Morning Capsule:
In The Arora Report analysis, the headline of $500B for Stargate may turn out to be a mirage. The initial number is $100B and includes previously announced projects. The new funding may be significantly less than $100B. For the time being, the analysis does not matter because the momo crowd is buying extremely aggressively on the headline.
- President Trump is speaking today at the Davos World Economic Forum at 11am ET. CEOs, including those of Bank of America (BAC) and Blackstone (BX) are expected to ask Trump questions after the speech.
- In The Arora Report analysis, CEOs are busy appeasing Trump. As a result, we expect CEOs to ask only questions that appease Trump and refrain from asking hard questions. In The Arora Report analysis, what Trump says will determine if the stock market goes to new highs or pulls back.
- In The Arora Report analysis investors should be aware of another important factor that shows the stock market may be poised for a pullback. The composite put/call ratio is a contrary indicator, and it is at the lowest level since 2021. This indicates extreme optimism that often results in a pullback. Does anyone remember the bear market of 2022. As always, no one should make decisions based on only one indicator. Investors should consider making decisions based on a comprehensive 360 degree analysis, such as that achieved by the adaptive ZYX Asset Allocation Model with inputs in 10 categories.
- Initial jobless claims came at 223K vs. 219K consensus. This indicates the jobs picture remains strong.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Japan
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is meeting today and tomorrow. In The Arora Report analysis, there is a high probability of a rate increase to 0.5%. The last time BOJ increased rates the Japanese and U.S. stock markets dropped on the unwinding of carry trades. BOJ has been careful to publicize the possibility of a rate increase to avoid a dramatic response this time around.
Saudi Arabia
The Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia told Trump that Saudi Arabia plans to invest $600B in the U.S. In The Arora Report analysis, this is an indication of how Trump is succeeding in attracting foreign capital to the U.S. Further in The Arora Report analysis, attracting foreign capital to the U.S. is a good way to reduce inflation.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL) and Meta (META).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
API crude inventories came at a build of 1M vs. a prior draw of 2.6M barrels. This data is bearish for oil.
The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing two cross currents.
- Selling is coming in along with selling in speculative junk stocks.
- Buying is coming in on optimism from Trump pardoning Ross Ulbricht. Ulbricht was the founder of Silk Road. Silk Road facilitated the use of cryptos for criminal activities. Ulbricht was serving two life sentences.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.
The dollar is range bound.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 6114 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6131, 6256, and 6500: support levels are 6017, 5926, and 5748.
DJIA futures are up 45 points.
Gold futures are at $2743, silver futures are at $30.55, and oil futures are at $75.49.
STARGATE ADDS FUEL TO AI FRENZY, CHINESE STOCKS SINK ON TRUMP TARIFF TALK
Jan 22, 2025
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Fueling AI Frenzy
Please click here for a chart of artificial intelligence ETF (AIQ).
Note the following:
- The chart shows there is a breakout in artificial intelligence ETF in the early trade this morning. As a caution, all breakouts do not sustain. Prudent investors should carefully watch if the breakout sustains or if it fails.
- RSI on the chart shows AIQ is barely overbought. RSI shows the ETF has room to run higher.
- Volume on the chart has been staying high, indicating sustained interest.
- The Trump administration has announced an artificial intelligence project called Stargate. Stargate is a $500B venture to build AI data centers. The initial equity funders of the joint venture are OpenAI, SoftBank (SFTBY), Oracle (ORCL), and Abu Dhabi’s MGX. Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Arm (ARM) are technology partners.
- The announcement of Stargate is adding fuel to the AI frenzy.
- In The Arora Report analysis, the headline of $500B for Stargate may turn out to be a mirage. The initial number is $100B and includes previously announced projects. The new funding may be significantly less than $100B. For the time being, the analysis does not matter because the momo crowd is buying extremely aggressively on the headline.
- Trump commented that 10% tariffs on China are under consideration. This is better news for Chinese stocks than the previously mentioned 60% tariffs. However, Chinese stocks sank on Trump’s comment, and the yuan declined.
- The U.S. stock market ran up yesterday, in part, on the assumption that China may escape tariffs. This morning in the early, the market is ignoring Trump’s China comments and continues to run up.
- Extreme positive sentiment is evidence as the market runs up on positive rumors, but when the rumors turn out to be false and the facts are negative, the market ignores it. In The Arora Report analysis, history is clear. Long term investments should be initiated when sentiment is extremely negative and profits should be taken when sentiment is extremely positive. The best way to take advantage of extremely positive sentiment is through tactical positions.
- The market is also being helped by strong earnings from: Netflix (NFLX), United Airlines (UAL), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), Procter & Gamble (PG).
- Leading Indicators will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), NVDA, and MSFT.
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Alphabet (GOOG).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing selling on continued disappointment that Trump has not announced a bitcoin reserve.
Markets
Interest rates and bonds are range bound.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 6117 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6131, 6256, and 6500 : support levels are 6017, 5926, and 5748.
DJIA futures are up 141 points.
Gold futures are at $2762, silver futures are at $31.35, and oil futures are at $75.68.
STOCK BUYING ON ‘GOLDEN AGE OF AMERICA,’ IMMENSE QUICK PROFITS FOR PRESIDENT TRUMP FROM TRUMP COIN
Jan 21, 2025
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Golden Age Of America
Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
- Trump has declared that the “golden age of America begins right now.”
- The chart shows that in the early trade there is buying on Trump’s golden age declaration.
- The chart shows that the stock market is up against the low band of the micro resistance zone.
- In The Arora Report analysis, expect significant volatility ahead. Volatility ahead will likely be due to the following:
- On Trump’s first day, there have been a flurry of executive orders impacting various sectors of the economy, especially energy and immigrants.
- The stock market has been running up on extreme optimism about the positives from Trump’s policies. However, the market has totally ignored the negatives from Trump’s policies.
- Sooner or later, hopium will meet reality.
- Sentiment is extremely positive. When sentiment is extremely positive, even the slightest negative news can cause significant volatility.
- Trump himself makes a lot of significant policy statements that are inconsistent.
- Rumor mongers will have a heyday. As an example, even though the stock market was closed yesterday, stock futures were trading. In the morning, futures were running up on the rumors that Trump will not impose significant tariffs. Then the news came that Trump is thinking of imposing a universal tariff and futures fell. Futures also got whipsawed on rumors about tariffs on Canada and Mexico as early as February 1. Futures were bought aggressively on rumors that President Xi of China has managed to avoid any tariffs at all, for the time being.
- For those who want next level information about taking advantage of the volatility, a new podcast titled “Investment Implications Of Trump’s Agenda” is in post-production.
- Trump has become the first meme coin president. Trump has launched Trump coin and Melania coin. The meme crowd has rushed to buy these coins, collectively giving them a multibillion dollar valuation. In a 24 hour period, over $34B of Trump coins traded. Trump related entities own 80% of Trump coin. Meme coins appear to be the most successful and lucrative venture ever launched by Trump. Assuming these coins continue to do well, a significant portion of Trump’s wealth now appears to be tied to cryptos.
- The volatility will provide significant opportunities for investors for both tactical and strategic positions. Between all services from The Arora Report, 109 profit taking signals have been given in the time period from Trump’s re-election to Trump’s inauguration.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade on Trump’s energy declaration. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) first experienced a bout of selling as money flew to Trump coin. Then, bitcoin rallied to a new high above $109,000 on rumors that Trump will announce a bitcoin reserve. As of this writing, bitcoin has pulled back as money continues to flow to Trump coin and on disappointment that on the first day, Trump did not announce a bitcoin reserve.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.
The dollar is stronger.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 6065 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6131, 6256, and 6500: support levels are 6017, 5926, and 5748.
DJIA futures are up 196 points.
Gold futures are at $2737, silver futures are at $31.19, and oil futures are at $75.27.
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Nigam Arora
Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

Dr. Natasha Arora
Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.