By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora
Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report.
Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’
STOCK MARKET DODGES JOBS REPORT BULLET, CRYPTO RESERVE DETAILS DISAPPOINT, GERMANY MAY GO NUCLEAR
Mar 7, 2025
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Jobs Report Bullet Dodged
Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
- The chart shows that the stock market is at the 200 day moving average. Here are the key points:
- The 200 day moving average is very powerful, and all investors should pay attention to it.
- The reason the 200 day moving average is so powerful is because legions of investors believe in it and act on it, and the media publicizes it.
- Other than the deeply held myth, the 200 day moving average does not have any special power. Afterall, why not a 190 day or 210 day moving average?
- As you know, The Arora Report is rigorously analytical. Rigorous analysis shows that the 200 day average by itself has no magical power.
- Legions of investors buy stocks when the stock market pulls back to the 200 day moving average because they erroneously consider the 200 day moving average as a major support. There is no analytically valid basis for this myth.
- Legions of investors also sell stocks when the stock market breaks below the 200 day moving average. Again, there is no analytical basis for this belief.
- RSI on the chart shows that the stock market is oversold. Oversold markets tend to bounce.
- The stock market just dodged a bullet from the jobs report. Wall Street’s positioning was such that both a weaker jobs report or a stronger jobs report would have caused a big sell off. Understanding the important market mechanic of positioning can give investors a big edge. Wall Street professionals keep nuances of market mechanics close to the chest because of their very high value. The best way to learn about market mechanics is by listening to the podcasts in Arora Ambassador Club.
- The jobs report came roughly inline with expectations. Here are the details of the jobs report:
- Nonfarm payrolls came at 151K vs. 159K consensus.
- Nonfarm private payrolls came at 140K vs. 145K consensus.
- Average hourly earnings came at 0.3% vs. 0.3% consensus.
- Average work week came at 34.1 hours vs. 34.2 hours consensus.
- Unemployment rate came at 4.1% vs. 4.0% consensus.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Germany
An important change that was unthinkable until last week is beginning to happen. President Trump’s comments about Russia are shaking Europe’s confidence, particularly Germany. The U.S.’s second largest overseas military presence is in Germany.
Since the end of the Cold War, Germany has renounced building its own nuclear capabilities and opted to be protected by the U.S. Friedrich Merz, Germany’s Chancellor-In-Waiting, has opened the door for Germany to go nuclear.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Nvidia (NVDA).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Alphabet (GOOG) and Meta (META).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The Energy Secretary is seeking $20B to fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). This is bringing in buying in oil.
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Details of the U.S. crypto reserve are disappointing, but more hype is ahead. Here are the details:
- The reserve will be capitalized with bitcoin (BTC.USD) the U.S. government seizes in criminal and civil cases.
- No new funding is going into the crypto reserve at this time.
- Bitcoin fell on this news as expectations were that the administration would set aside funds to buy bitcoin.
- Bitcoin whales appear to have sold on the news.
- Mom and pop appear to have aggressively bought the dip.
- More hype could be ahead from the White House crypto summit today.
- On the hope of positive announcements from the summit, bitcoin is seeing buying. As of this writing, bitcoin has regained about half of its losses from the reserve capitalization plan.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 5747 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5926, 6017, and 6131: support levels are 5622, 5500, and 5400,
DJIA futures are down 92 points.
Gold futures are at $2924, silver futures are at $32.92, and oil futures are at $67.24.
Protection Band And What To Do Now
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular. The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
Traditional 60/40 Portfolio
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
LAW OF UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES HITTING STOCK MARKET, FRENCH NUCLEAR WEAPONS TO DEFEND EUROPE
Mar 6, 2025
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Unintended Consequences
Please click here for a chart of German bunds (BUND). Bunds are German government bonds.
Note the following:
- It is important for investors to set their politics aside, go to neutral to examine events without bias.
- The law of the unintended consequences of change is finally hitting the stock market in the U.S. in the early trade.
- The chart illustrates the law of unintended consequences.
- The chart shows when the Trump Zelenskyy confrontation occurred at the White House.
- The chart shows a big drop in bunds. The drop in bunds is the worst since 1990.
- Yields move inverse to the bonds. When bonds fall, yields rise. Yields across Europe are spiking.
- It is not only Europe, yields in Japan hit a near 16-year high. This is benefiting the ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio through the yen ETF position (FXY).
- Higher yields across the globe are now migrating to the U.S.
- ISM data yesterday was strong, further putting pressure on yields in the U.S.
- In the early trade, there is selling in the U.S. stock market as investors wake up to rising yields.
- The reason The Arora Report was enormously successful during President Trump’s first term was that we learned to focus on what Trump was trying to do and not on his methods. For those wanting next level information, there is a podcast in Arora Ambassador Club. Irrespective of your opinion of Trump’s method, Trump was trying to pressure Ukrainian President Zelenskyy towards peace over many more years of war. Little did Trump know of the unintended consequences
- The unintended consequence of the Trump Zelenskyy confrontation was that alarm bells rang in Germany. The alarm bells were that the U.S. is no longer a reliable ally under President Trump. No German would want President Trump from the U.S. to dictate that Germany gives concessions to Russia in the event of a war with Russia.
- Since World War II, Germany has been highly dependent on the U.S. for defense. Everything changed overnight after the Trump Zelenskyy confrontation. Germany realized that they have to be able to defend themselves independent of the U.S. The problem Germany faces is its tradition of austerity and constitutional limits.
- As a member of The Arora Report, you were ahead of the game. We previously wrote:
Historically, the German government has been the most fiscal responsible in the entire world.
Friedrich Merz, Chancellor-In-Waiting, is proposing to amend the constitution to exempt defense spending from fiscal spending limits.
- Merz said, “In view of the threats to our freedom and peace on our continent, the rule for our defence now has to be ‘whatever it takes.” In terms of defense spending and austerity, the biggest change has happened in Germany almost overnight since World War II.
- It is the additional defense spending that is hitting the bund.
- In The Arora Report, there is a prior signal on European defense ETF (EUAD) and English defense company BAE Systems (BAESY).
- In a dramatic turn of events, France is proposing to use French nuclear weapons to defend Europe in order to reduce reliance on the U.S.
- The foundations of the highly successful ZYX Change Method for Investing and Trading as well as the adaptive ZYX Asset Allocation Model are based on Theory ZYX. The original creator of Theory ZYX was Nigam Arora. For those who want next level information, consider reading the book “Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management: A Definitive Guide to Reach the Next Level.” Note, that the book is about creating, managing, and understanding change. It is not a stock market book.
- This morning the volatility is being illustrated by the jobless claims data. Previously, we shared with you last week’s data was weaker. The just released data is stronger. Initial jobless claims came at 221K vs. 234K consensus.
- The official jobs report will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET and may be market moving.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 5788 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5926, 6017, and 6131: support levels are 5748, 5622, and 5500.
DJIA futures are down 383 points.
Gold futures are at $2915, silver futures are at $32.98, and oil futures are at $66.81.
TARIFF RELIEF AHEAD, INVESTORS LIKE TRUMP’S SPEECH BUT ADP THROWS COLD WATER ON BUDDING STOCK RALLY
Mar 5, 2025
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Tariff Relief Ahead
Please click here for a chart of Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Note the following:
- The purpose of the chart is to illustrate the extreme volatility under the surface. Investors need to understand this volatility to make good decisions.
- The chart illustrates the wide range in which the stock market is trading.
- Tariff relief for Mexico and Canada is ahead, as early as this afternoon.
- In The Arora Report analysis, it appears that the relief may include the following:
- Auto companies such as Ford (F) and General Motors (GM) may be exempt.
- Many other companies may also be exempt.
- The tariff rate may be reduced from 25%.
- There are crosscurrents this morning in the stock market. It is important for investors to set their politics aside, go into neutral, and examine how institutions are investing.
- Institutions are buying on the prospect of tariff relief.
- Institutions loved Trump’s speech, are excited, and are buying stocks.
- ADP data is throwing cold water on the bullishness.
- ADP is the largest private payroll processor in the country. ADP uses its data to provide a glimpse of the official jobs report that will be released on Friday at 8:30am ET. The just released ADP data is the weakest in recent memory by some measures. ADP Employment Change came at 77K vs. 145K consensus.
- ISM Services data will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.
- The Fed’s Beige Book will be released at 2pm ET and may be market moving.
- Expect volatility to continue based on the data and what Trump says.
- Investors who waited for Trump’s speech to implement changes in the protection band may take a second look at the chart to understand the volatility and make changes based on a personal comfort level with volatility.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Germany
Historically, the German government has been the most fiscal responsible in the entire world.
Friedrich Merz, Chancellor-In-Waiting, is proposing to amend the constitution to exempt defense spending from fiscal spending limits.
In The Arora Report analysis, this is a very positive development for European defense stocks. There is a prior signal on European defense ETF (EUAD) in ZYX Allocation and one of the largest European defense companies (BAESY) in ZYX Buy.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Alphabet (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT).
In the early trade, money flows in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) were positive before release of ADP data but have turned negative after the ADP data.
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
API crude inventories came at a draw of 1.455M barrels vs. a consensus of a draw of 0.3M barrels.
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying.
Markets
Interest rates and bonds are range bound.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 5792 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5926, 6017, and 6131: support levels are 5748, 5622, and 5500.
DJIA futures are down 13 points.
Gold futures are at $2909, silver futures are at $32.58, and oil futures are at $66.87.
RAISING CASH AND HEDGES, PAY ATTENTION TO STOCK MARKET SUPPORT ZONE AND TRUMP’S SPEECH
Mar 4, 2025
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Raise Cash And Hedges
It is time to raise cash and hedges. For details, please see the section below titled “Protection Band And What To Do Now.”.
There are a number of triggers for this call that include ISM data (previously published in yesterday’s Interim Capsule) and President Trump following through with tariffs. Please note that this call may need to be quickly reversed if one of the following occurs:
- Trump changes his mind and removes the tariffs.
- The Fed starts indicating that it will rapidly cut interest rates.
It is a matter of personal preference to implement these changes now or wait until after Trump’s speech.
Pay Attention To Support Zone
Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
- The chart shows that the stock market has fallen below the previous breakout line.
- The chart shows the support zone.
- Unless President Trump changes his mind or the Fed changes its policy, the stock market going to the support zone is the highest probability scenario at this time.
- RSI on the chart shows that the stock market is oversold. Oversold markets tend to bounce.
- President Trump will deliver a speech before the joint session of Congress this evening at 9pm ET. Trump is likely to talk about the Russia Ukraine war, DOGE actions, inflation, tariffs, and immigration.
- Normally, when the president speaks before Congress it is positive, optimistic, and invigorating. Often, it is designed to make the stock market go up. In The Arora Report analysis, prudent investors should pay attention to what Trump has said in advance of his speech. Trump has said, “I WILL TELL IT LIKE IT IS!” It is not clear what Trump is going to say and how it will impact the stock market.
- Of interest in the big picture is earnings from Target (TGT), as Target is a large retailer. Target beat on earnings, reported revenues inline, and guides earnings inline but revenues below consensus. The commentary from Target CEO Brian Cornell is mixed – the consumer is cautious and concerned about tariffs; there will be price increases.
- Momo gurus have been shouting from the top of their lungs that tariffs were a negotiation tactic and Trump would never impose them. As is often the case, momo gurus are wrong again. Prudent investors need to remember that momo gurus profit from the stock market going up; their real job is to persuade their followers to buy stocks regardless of market conditions.
- The momo gurus pattern is that when their calls are proven wrong, they come up with a new narrative to persuade their followers to buy stocks. The new momo guru narrative is that they know tariffs will be short lived.
- Investors should start with Arora’s Second Law Of Investing And Trading: “Nobody knows with certainty, what is going to happen next in the markets.” In The Arora Report analysis, investors should not be so sure that tariffs will be short lived, especially with China. The Chinese are extremely smart and strategic. For example, China has designed retaliatory tariffs in a manner that will hurt Trump supporters the most. China is trying to flood the White House with calls from Trump supporters to remove tariffs on China.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOG).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
Money is flowing out of bitcoin and into gold.
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
OPEC+ has indicated that it may increase production under pressure from President Trump.
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Most of the gains in bitcoin from Trump’s announcement of a strategic crypto reserve have evaporated. Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing selling.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 5824 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5926, 6017, and 6131: support levels are 5748, 5622, and 5500.
DJIA futures are down 95 points.
Gold futures are at $2933, silver futures are at $32.45, and oil futures are at $67.73.
TRUMP’S CRYPTO SURPRISE MOVE BRINGS BUYERS INTO STOCK MARKET – SKEPTICS ABOUND – ANATHEMA TO FREE ENTERPRISE
Mar 3, 2025
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Strategic Crypto Reserve
Please click here for a chart of bitcoin trust ETF (IBIT). We are using the chart of IBIT instead of bitcoin based on member requests.
Note the following:
- First and foremost, The Arora Report is politically agnostic. Our sole objective is to help investors maximize the wealth they generate over their lifetimes.
- The chart shows IBIT had dipped into the Arora buy zone. IBIT is in The Arora Report’s Model Portfolios.
- The chart shows a big jump in IBIT correlated to a big move in bitcoin after President Trump announced a strategic crypto reserve. There were two surprises in Trump’s announcement:
- It was expected that a crypto reserve would include only bitcoin. Trump announced the reserve would include not only bitcoin, but also ether, solana, XRP, and cardano.
- Trump was expected to make an announcement this coming Friday at a crypto conference. Instead, Trump announced the reserve yesterday afternoon. Eric Trump tweeted, “I love the genius of announcing a strategic reserve on a Sunday, when traditional markets are closed and Wall Street sleeps. For the first time, retail investors win. Traditional finance better catch up, or it will quickly become extinct. The world no longer runs on a Mon-Friday, 9 to 5.”
- The chart provides food for thought for prudent investors. Expectations were that, on Trump’s announcement, IBIT would move higher, cutting through the micro resistance zone shown on the chart like a hot knife through butter, and subsequently, bitcoin would break above the previous high to reach around $120,000 in a matter of hours.
- The chart shows that IBIT did not even reach the micro resistance zone. Why would IBIT not reach the micro resistance zone on aggressive buying on Trump’s announcement? The answer is bitcoin whales were taking advantage of the strength and selling bitcoin.
- The fact that the chart shows IBIT did not even reach the micro resistance zone shows that, at least for the time being, there is a lot of skepticism about Trump’s plan.
- Skepticism is coming from two corners.
- Many of the most astute bitcoin bulls do not like the inclusion of smaller tokens in the strategic crypto reserve due to volatility, liquidity, complexity, short histories, and much higher risks than bitcoin. On the other side, expect Trump supporters to argue that including smaller tokens provides diversification and will help the U.S. gain technological leadership.
- Skepticism is also coming from those who understand that free enterprise, and not the government, is the driving force that has made America the greatest country in the world. Under the Biden administration, there was substantial misallocation of resources as Biden picked winners and losers based on his preferences and political considerations. Now, President Trump, and not the free market, is picking winners and losers in cryptos. The government always misallocates resources. If government allocation of resources worked, today, Russia would also be one of the greatest countries in the world.
- Prudent investors need to be very concerned for the long term as to the psychological impact of the strategic crypto reserve on the dollar. The U.S. owes a big part of its prosperity to the dollar being the world’s reserve currency. From our resources across the globe, the formation of the strategy crypto reserve is prompting other countries to accelerate their efforts to diversify away from the dollar.
- On the other side, crypto bulls make a feeble argument that as the U.S. government buying artificially drives cryptos higher, the strategic crypto reserve will boost confidence in the dollar.
- The announcement of the strategic crypto reserve has boosted the sentiment in the stock market to extreme positive again. This is bringing in aggressive buying, especially in speculative stocks.
- An extraordinary event occurred in the last 20 minutes of trading on Friday. There were huge closing imbalances on the buy side. Billions of dollars of stocks were bought in the last 20 minutes of the regular session. The buy side imbalances occurred due to month end rebalancing.
- This morning, Wall Street is also front running blind money. The typical mode of business is for Wall Street to buy stocks earlier in hope of selling to blind money at higher prices later. Blind money is typically invested in the afternoon. Blind money is the money that flows into the stock market on the first two days of the month without any analysis or regard for market conditions.
- In The Arora Report analysis, the probability of a correction in the stock market had significantly increased after last week’s events, but after Trump’s crypto announcement, the probability of a correction is declining again.
- Crypto related stocks such as MicroStrategy (MSTR), Coinbase (COIN), and Robinhood (HOOD)are being aggressively bought in the early trade.
- ISM Manufacturing Index will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Nvidia (NVDA).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying on Trump’s announcement.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 5990 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6017, 6131, and 6256: support levels are 5926, 5748, and 5622.
DJIA futures are up 132 points.
Gold futures are at $2885, silver futures are at $32.35, and oil futures are at $70.09.
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Nigam Arora
Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.
Dr. Natasha Arora
Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.
