WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: WHAT PRUDENT INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW NOW

July 20, 2025

By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report.

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

TRUMP TO OPEN THE FLOOD GATE OF 401K MONEY TO CRYPTOS — BITCOIN TO $250,000 AND THEN TO $1,000,000

Jul 18, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Trump Gambit

Please click here for a chart of bitcoin (BTC.USD).

Note the following:

The chart shows that after the breakout above zone 1 (support), bitcoin has been consolidating in a narrow range.
Typically, the bitcoin pattern shown on the chart leads to a pullback before a move higher. However, a new executive order that President Trump is about to sign has the potential to not only stop the pullback but push bitcoin higher. The first magnet for traders is $140K.
President Trump’s executive order has the potential to push bitcoin to $250K and then potentially to $1M in the long term. By now, you may be asking what is President Trump about to do that is going to light a fire under bitcoin — President Trump appears to be ready to sign an executive order to open the floodgates of retirement money, including 401K money, to cryptos.
To understand what President Trump is about to do, investors need to understand the history of retirement plans in the United States.
- Before 1963, retirement fund scandals were common, as there were not stringent federal requirements to protect workers’ retirement money. Many employers raided their pension funds for ulterior purposes and often mismanaged retirement funds that cost workers their retirement.
- The key catalyst came in 1963, when the Studebaker Auto Company collapsed, causing thousands of workers to lose their pensions. The Studebaker collapse and other scandals lead to Congress passing the Employee Retirement Income Security Act (ERISA).

- ERISA established three standards:

- - Retirement plan sponsors have a fiduciary duty to act prudently in the best interest of participants.

- - Investment decisions must be made in a way that a prudent man would make to protect retirement funds.

- - Retirement plans must avoid concentration of assets in risky assets.

As crypto gained popularity, in 2022 the Department of Labor cautioned plan sponsors against including cryptos in 401K’s due to the high risk.
President Trump is now set to issue an executive order directing regulators to remove barriers to retirement plan money, especially 401K money, to flow into cryptos.
Prudent investors need to get ahead of the curve and understand that President Trump’s action will open the floodgates of 401K money to cryptos.
Prudent investors also need to look ahead to midterm elections. In a midterm election, historically, the President’s party loses an average of 3.6 Senate seats and 28 House seats.
Opening the floodgates of 401K money to crypto will strengthen the financial support the crypto industry has been providing to President Trump. The crypto industry provided more than $250M to support Trump’s campaign for re-election.
Allowing cryptos in 401Ks will open up a new source of revenue for Wall Street firms, increasing support of Wall Street firms for Republicans in the midterm elections.
Money is a big influence in U.S. elections. Prudent investors should expect many Democrats who have been resistant to cryptos to change their minds and jump on the crypto bandwagon to raise money for the midterm election.

In The Arora Report analysis, here is a key question prudent investors need to ask: The prevailing wisdom is that cryptos can only go up, what happens if the prevailing wisdom turns out to be wrong and cryptos go down? If cryptos in 401K’s go up, it will certainly help Republicans in the midterm elections, but what happens if people lose money on cryptos in their 401K’s? If cryptos go down and people lose their retirement funds, will they blame President Trump and in hindsight, call this an imprudent policy?

Allowing cryptos in 401K’s will also help the stock market as long as the prevailing wisdom that cryptos only go up proves correct.

Should prudent investors be swept into the frenzy generated by the prevailing wisdom that cryptos only go up? In The Arora Report analysis, prudent investors need to remember that history has shown us the prevailing wisdom often turns out to be wrong.

Prudent investors should pay special attention to Arora’s second law of investing and trading: “Nobody knows with certainty, what is going to happen next in the markets.”

In The Arora Report analysis, there is merit to cryptos, but they should only be a very small part of the portfolio at this time. Bitcoin ETF (IBIT) is in the Core Model Portfolio of ZYX Buy and ZYX Allocation.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment data will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.
Monthly options are expiring today. So far this week, option expiration has been exerting upside influence on the stock market.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the many unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and in Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6347 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6500 and 6700: support levels are 6256, 6131, and 6017.

DJIA futures are up 86 points.

Gold futures are at $3365, silver futures are at $38.75, and oil futures are at $67.13.

Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. The proprietary Arora Protection Band from The Arora Report is very popular. The Arora Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

A TELL FOR STOCK MARKET FROM TRUMP-POWELL DRAMA, COKE SWITCHING TO REAL SUGAR MAY OPEN FLOOD GATES

Jul 17, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

A Tell For Stock Market

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

The chart shows how important Trump-Powell drama played out and provides a valuable tell for the stock market.
The chart shows when the news broke that President Trump had written a draft letter firing Fed Chair Powell and had shown the letter to Republican lawmakers.
The chart shows that the stock market immediately tumbled.
The chart shows when President Trump backtracked.
The chart shows that when President Trump backtracked, the stock market immediately moved up.
President Trump stated, “I don’t rule anything out, but I think it’s highly unlikely, unless he has to leave for fraud.” Adding to the possibility, Trump said, “It’s possible there’s fraud involved.” In The Arora Report analysis, President Trump is trying to use the cost overrun in Fed building renovations as an excuse. President Trump has not been a fan of Powell, sharing, “He’s a terrible Fed chief. I was surprised he was appointed.” Prudent investors remember that President Trump is the one who initially appointed Fed Chair Powell and was later nominated for a second term by President Biden.
There are the important tells from the chart:
- The VUD indicator, the most sensitive measure of supply and demand in real time, did not turn orange even when the stock market was rapidly dropping. Orange indicates a net supply of stocks, and green indicates a net demand for stocks. The VUD indicator is one of The Arora Report’s proprietary indicators that gives members of The Arora Report a big edge. Please click here to see why many traditional technical analysis indicators no longer work well.
- For the rest of the day, the VUD indicator stayed mostly green, indicating net demand for stocks.
- The price action on the chart shows that subsequent to President Trump’s denial, the market went higher compared to where it was when the news broke of President Trump’s draft letter firing Fed Chair Powell.
- The sum total of the foregoing is that overall, the prospect of Fed Chair Powell being fired and the Fed losing its independence did not concern the stock market.
- If it was not for the extreme bullishness in the stock market right now and dominance of the momo crowd, the stock market would have continued to go down even after President Trump’s denial. The reason is rather simple – in all developed countries, central banks are independent; only in the third world countries do presidents fire central bank chiefs and have central banks do presidents’ bidding. Prudent investors should note a Fed Chair has never been fired in U.S. history.
In The Arora Report analysis, here are the reasons behind the stock market’s response:
- The momo crowd aggressively bought the dip. The momo crowd does not do deep analysis and does not understand the implications. The momo crowd simply has stars in their eyes and buys every time the stock market dips.
- Smart money is split. Smart money recognizes President Trump firing Fed Chair Powell will be a big negative in the long term but in the short term a new Trump appointee will significantly lower interest rates and drive the stock market higher.
- In The Arora Report analysis, in the past, Fed Chair Powell enjoyed great support from both Republicans and Democrats. However, now Powell is losing support from both Democrats and Republicans. The reason is that Washington has now become a totally polarized place. Powell tries to stay politically neutral although President Trump accuses him of being political and previously helping out President Biden. In Washington, there is no place for a person who is trying to do a good job without being influenced by politics.
- In The Arora Report analysis, as damaging as it would be for the U.S. Federal Reserve to become similar to the central banks in third world countries, there is merit to President Trump’s idea of a golden age. As AI becomes more pervasive, the economy will become more efficient and as such lower interest rates may be in order.
President Trump appears to have persuaded Coca-Cola (KO) to use real sugar for drinks sold in the United States. This is a big change, as long ago both food and beverage industries mostly switched over from real sugar to high-fructose corn syrup. The reason is that high-fructose corn syrup is cheaper than sugar. Prudent investors should note an increase in sugar demand will require more sugar imports. A change is happening here and investors need to get ahead of the change. This may turn out to be stage 1 of a high alpha generating moment. Please click here to see the five stages of a long trade, and please click here to see the five stages of a short trade.
On the Coca-Cola news, so far The Arora Report gave three signals.
- The Arora Report has given a signal to buy the sugar ETF CANE. The signal is in ZYX Allocation.
- The Arora Report has given a signal to short sell INGR. INGR is a major high-fructose corn syrup producer.
- A call was made to take profits on agricultural products company Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM). ADM is a producer of high-fructose corn syrup. One of the edges that The Arora Report provides members is that signals are given in real time. When the signal was given, ADM was trading at $53.62. Later on in the aftermarket, ADM fell as low as $49.50 but has since then recovered to $52.25 as of this writing.
- More signals will be coming.
Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) reported earnings better than the consensus and the whisper numbers. TSM earnings are important for two reasons:
- TSM manufactures advanced AI chips for Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). TSM also manufactures chips for Apple’s (AAPL) iPhones.
- Good earnings from TSM come right after lower projections from the most important semiconductor manufacturing company ASML (ASML). Please see yesterday’s Morning Capsule.
Prudent investors closely watch retail sales data as the U.S. economy is 70% consumer based. Retail sales came stronger than expected. This data is inline with data yesterday from Bank of America (BAC). Please see yesterday’s Morning Capsule for more. Here is the latest retail sales data:
- Headline retail sales came at 0.6% vs. 0.2% consensus.
- Retail sales ex-auto came at 0.5% vs. 0.3% consensus.
Initial jobless claims came at 221K vs. 230K consensus. This indicates that the jobs picture remains strong, at least for the time being.
Among important earnings, Netflix (NFLX) and Interactive Brokers (IBKR) will report earnings after the close.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Alphabet (GOOG).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

Gold is being sold on strong economic data. Those who want next level information to understand how and why gold and silver move, there are several podcasts in Arora Ambassador Club.

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6301 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6500 and 6700: support levels are 6256, 6131, and 6017.

DJIA futures are down 23 points.

Gold futures are at $3317, silver futures are at $37.96, and oil futures are at $66.93.

BANK OF AMERICA CONTRADICTS CONSUMER WEAKNESS, STOCK BUYING ON PPI, IMPORTANT SEMICONDUCTOR DATA

Jul 16, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Data On Consumer

Please click here for a chart of Bank of America stock (BAC).

Note the following:

The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of BAC stock is being used to illustrate the point.
The chart shows that the recent attempt from BAC stock to breakout failed.
The chart shows BAC has pulled back.
RSI on the chart shows that BAC stock is now oversold and has the potential to rally.
Investors should watch the chart of BAC stock. If BAC stock rallies and breaks out, it will be a positive tell for the entire stock market.
BAC is in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio, long from $7.69. This represents a gain of 505% as of this writing.
Bank of America is important because it is the second largest bank in the U.S. Bank of America reported earnings better than the consensus and whisper numbers.
The U.S. economy is 70% consumer based. Therefore, the status of the consumer is important for investors. We have been sharing with you several pieces of data that show the consumer is weakening, especially at the low end. The Bank of America is contradicting other data. CEO Brian Moynihan said, “consumers remained resilient, with healthy spending and asset quality, and commercial borrower utilization rates rose.”
The just released Producer Price Index (PPI) shows inflation at the producer level cooler than expected. Here are the details:
- Headline PPI came at 0.0% vs. 0.2% consensus.
- Core PPI came at 0.0% vs. 0.2% consensus.
Buying is coming into the stock market on cooler PPI data.
Yesterday, the 30-year bond yield was hitting 5%. If the yield would have continued to rise this morning, it would have dampened the extreme bullishness in the stock market. However, the yield is pulling back on cooler PPI.
The stock market is ignoring it for the time being but investors should pay attention to earnings from ASML (ASML). In many ways, ASML, a Dutch company, is the most important semiconductor company. Without extreme ultraviolet lithography machines from ASML, the advanced semiconductors from Nvidia (NVDA), and in turn artificial intelligence, would not be possible. ASML reported better than consensus earnings but issued downside guidance. The stock is down about 8% as of this writing. The company said, “Looking at 2026, we see that our AI customers’ fundamentals remain strong. At the same time, we continue to see increasing uncertainty driven by macro-economic and geopolitical developments. Therefore, while we still prepare for growth in 2026, we cannot confirm it at this stage. We expect third-quarter total net sales between €7.4 billion and €7.9 billion, with a gross margin between 50% and 52%.”
The Fed’s Beige Book will be released at 2pm ET.
Retail sales and initial jobless claims data will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

China

The economic data from China is better than expected. Here are the details:

Q2 GDP came at 1.1% quarter-over-quarter vs. 0.9% consensus; 5.3% year-to-date vs. 5% consensus.
Industrial production came at 6.8% year-over-year vs. 5.6% consensus.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in NVDA, Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a build of 19.1M barrels vs. a consensus of a draw of 2M barrels. This data is very bearish for oil.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying today on President Trump twisting arms to pass the crypto bills.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is range bound.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6294 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6500 and 6700: support levels are 6256, 6131, and 6017.

DJIA futures are up 134 points.

Gold futures are at $3342, silver futures are at $38.20, and oil futures are at $65.91.

TRUMP REVERSAL ON NVIDIA H20 ADDING TO BULLISHNESS, BUYING ON CPI DATA

Jul 15, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Trump Reversal

Please click here for a chart of Nvidia stock (NVDA).

Note the following:

The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of NVDA stock is being used to illustrate the point.
The chart shows that NVDA stock is gapping up on President Trump’s reversal on H20 AI chip exports to China.
The chart shows that NVDA stock is extended after the breakout.
The chart shows that the recent Arora buy signal on NVDA stock was given near the April lows. NVDA core position is in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio, long from $12.55, producing a gain of 1265% as of this writing.
Here is the sequence of events:
- In April, the Trump administration had banned the sale of H20 AI chips to China.
- Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang met with President Trump and was able to persuade him to allow the export of H20 chips to China.
- President Trump’s reversal is being seen in China as a gesture of goodwill from the U.S.
- President Trump’s reversal is adding to the bullishness all across the tech sector, especially in Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Intel (INTC), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Marvell (MRVL).
- President Trump’s reversal is also emboldening TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) traders. TACO traders see President Trump’s reversal on Nvidia as another data point confirming their belief that President Trump will not follow through with what he says on trade.
Banks have kicked off earnings season. Among important bank earnings, JPMorgan (JPM) earnings are better than consensus but less than whisper numbers. JPM is in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio, long from $34.14. This represents a gain of 737% as of this writing. Citigroup (C) reported earnings better than consensus and whisper numbers. Wells Fargo (WFC) reported better than consensus but below whisper numbers.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) came roughly inline with expectations. Here are the details:
- Headline CPI came at 0.3% vs. 0.3% consensus.
- Core CPI came at 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus.
In The Arora Report analysis, CPI data shows that progress on reducing inflation has halted. The release of CPI data is bringing in buying on relief that the data was not worse. This is an indication of the extreme bullishness that is prevailing in the stock market.
Adding to the bullishness are two statements from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent:
There is no need to be concerned about the China tariff deadline.
The process for Fed Chair Powell’s replacement has started.
There has been very aggressive buying in nuclear stocks, including NuScale Power (SMR), Oklo (OKLO), NANO Nuclear Energy (NNE), and Cameco (CCJ), after the announcement of Meta’s (META) data center plans. META is in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio, long from $49.92. This represents a gain of 1352% as of this writing. SMR is in the portfolio that surrounds the Core Model Portfolio in ZYX Buy.
Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOG), Tesla (TSLA), and META.

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing selling.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6335 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6500 and 6700: support levels are 6256, 6131, and 6017.

DJIA futures are down 43 points.

Gold futures are at $3361, silver futures are at $38.52, and oil futures are at $66.93.

INSTITUTIONS BUYING BITCOIN FOR LONG TERM AHEAD OF CRYPTO WEEK, TACO TRADERS DO NOT BELIEVE TRUMP

Jul 14, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Crypto Week

Please click here for a chart of bitcoin (BTC.USD).

Note the following:

The chart shows the Arora buy signal near the lows from the Liberation Day drop in April. The chart shows bitcoin is up 62% since then.
The chart shows bitcoin broke out last week.
RSI on the chart shows bitcoin is overbought, making it susceptible to a pullback. If bitcoin pulls back, it could fall to the bottom of zone 1 (support) shown on the chart.
Two factors are behind the rise in bitcoin:
- The move up in bitcoin is largely driven by institutional buyers buying bitcoin for the long term.
  - Bitcoin ETFs saw the biggest inflow in 2025 at $1.18B on Thursday last week.
- Republicans have declared this week Crypto Week as deliberation begins on three crypto bills. One of the bills would restrict the Fed from creating a digital U.S. dollar. Democrats have responded by declaring next week Anti-Crypto Corruption Week.
The next magnet for bitcoin is $140K.
Prudent investors should keep in mind the exuberance in bitcoin could be damped if the Fed remains hawkish and hikes interest rates in response to new tariffs.
President Trump has raised tariffs to 30% on imports from Mexico and the E.U. The new tariffs are set to begin on August 1. TACO traders (Trump Always Chickens Out) do not believe President Trump will follow through and are buying stocks on the dip.
The bond market and stock market had factored in interest rate cuts soon. However, confidence in a rate cut in the bond market is faltering. Bond market investors are very smart. Prudent investors should take note.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET.
Earnings season will kick off tomorrow with bank earnings. Citigroup (C), Morgan (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC) are scheduled to report.
Nvidia’s (NVDA) Jensen Huang is visiting China for meetings with senior officials and a supply chain expo this week. Huang said China’s military is not likely to use AI chips from the U.S. Huang is creating bullishness in NVDA stock, and in turn in tech stocks.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in NVDA and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), and Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing heavy institutional buying. Changes to regulation are likely ahead for cryptos as Congress deliberates on several pieces of legislation.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6281 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6500, and 6700: support levels are 6256, 6131, and 6017.

DJIA futures are down 136 points.

Gold futures are at $3358, silver futures are at $39.05, and oil futures are at $68.60.

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.

AAPL, ADM, AMD, ASML, AVGO, BAC, BTCUSD, C, CANE, CCJ, DJIA, GLD, GOLD, IBIT, IBKR, INGR, INTC, JPM, KO, MARKETS, META, MRVL, NDX, nflx, NNE, NVDA, OIL, OKLO, QQQ, SILVER, SLV, SMR, SPX, SPY, TSM, USO, WFC

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