WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: WHAT PRUDENT INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW NOW

November 22, 2025

By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report.

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

STELLAR NVIDIA EARNINGS NO MATCH FOR CRYPTO MARGIN CALLS AND RISING YIELDS IN JAPAN HURTING THE CARRY TRADE

Nov 21, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Market Cross Currents

Please click here for a chart of Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Note the following:

The chart shows an outside day in QQQ yesterday. An outside day occurs when the high of the day is higher than the prior day’s high and the low of the day is lower than the prior day’s low. An outside day is a reversal pattern.
The chart shows QQQ fell below the low band of zone 1. Zone 1 was previously a support zone and is now a resistance zone.
RSI on the chart shows QQQ is oversold.
The chart shows QQQ started out lower this morning but moved up as buying came in on New York Fed President John Williams’s comments. Williams sees room for a rate cut and does not believe that a rate cut will impact inflation.
As per Fed rate futures, the probability of a rate cut in December jumped from 34% to 50% after Williams’s comment.
Later on, Boston Fed President Collins said that she is reluctant to cut rates in December but is open to new data.
Investors should note, the stock market moved up on Williams’s comments but ignored Collins’s comments.
There were four catalysts behind yesterday becoming an outside day.
- The morning started out with aggressive buying due to stellar Nvidia (NVDA) earnings.
- It appears that many funds sold into the strength due to rising yields in Japan. The concern is the carry trade may blow up if yields in Japan rise further. As such prudent investors are taking protective steps. In the carry trade, funds have been borrowing in Japan and buying AI stocks in the U.S. We have been sharing with you the importance of the carry trade to the U.S. stock market.
- Bitcoin promoters had been putting up a ferocious fight for bitcoin to hold $90,000. When bitcoin fell below $90,000, it triggered margin calls. Many investors are using leverage of 10-20 times in crypto trading. Such high leverage is very painful when cryptos fall. Many investors who own cryptos also own NVDA and other AI stocks. Further, many trading algorithms are keyed to bitcoin. Such algorithms started selling when bitcoin dropped below $80,000. Bitcoin ETFs saw $800M of outflows yesterday.
- As a member of The Arora Report, you have been ahead of the curve regarding concerns about circular financing in AI and super aggressive depreciation schedules for AI chips. Yesterday, many investors started waking up to these concerns.
University of Michigan consumer sentiment will be released today at 10am ET and may be market moving.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Meta (META) and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** stocks in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing selling.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is range bound.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6588 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6780, 7000, and 7200 : support levels are 6500, 6256, and 6131.

DJIA futures are up 257 points.

Gold futures are at $4077, silver futures are at $49.50, and oil futures are at $58.30.

Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. The proprietary Arora Protection Band from The Arora Report is very popular. The Arora Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

NVIDIA BLACKWELL SALES OFF THE CHART, CONSUMER SEEKING VALUE DRIVE WALMART EARNINGS

Nov 20, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Jobs Report

Please click here for a chart of Nvidia stock (NVDA).

Note the following:

The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of NVDA stock is being used to illustrate the point.
The chart shows NVDA stock bounced off the low band of zone 1 (support).
The chart shows NVDA stock is gapping up on earnings.
RSI on the chart shows the stock has room to run.
Nvidia reported earnings better than consensus and whisper numbers.
The strength of the demand for Nvidia chips is summed up in this quote from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang: “Blackwell sales are off the charts, and cloud GPUs are sold out. We’ve entered the virtuous cycle of AI.”
In The Arora Report analysis, Nvidia earnings should calm the fears of the AI bubble, at least for now. Demand is clearly robust through 2026. However, there is still a prospect of a slow down in 2027 and 2028. Concerns still remain about circular financing. Investors should also be concerned about aggressive depreciation schedules used by data center companies such as CoreWeave (CRWV), Nebius (NBIS), and IREN (IREN).
The top 20% of consumers continue to excessively spend. However, the bottom 50% are stretched. Value oriented consumers are increasingly drawn to Walmart (WMT). Walmart reported earnings better than the consensus and inline with whisper numbers.
FOMC minutes show there is more support for not cutting interest rates in December than generally believed by investors prior to the release of the minutes. Most believe that further interest rate cuts add to the risk of higher inflation becoming entrenched.
The jobs report was stronger than expected. Here are the details:
- Non-farm payrolls came at 119K vs. 50K consensus.
- Non-farm private payrolls came at 97K vs. 58K consensus.
- Unemployment rate came at 4.4% vs. 4.3% consensus.
- Average work week came at 34.2 vs. 34.3 consensus.
- Average hourly earnings came at 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus.
Initial jobless claims came at 220K vs. 228K prior.
The foregoing data supports The Arora Report position that the data does not support a rate cut in December. However, there is intense political pressure from President Trump for the Fed to cut interest rates.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates and bonds are range bound.

The dollar is range bound.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6763 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6780, 7000, and 7200 : support levels are 6500, 6256, and 6131.

DJIA futures are up 456 points.

Gold futures are at $4084, silver futures are at $50.87, and oil futures are at $59.64.

TECH STOCKS NEAR CRITICAL LOW BAND OF SUPPORT ZONE AHEAD OF NVIDIA EARNINGS AND JOBS REPORT – MOMO BUYING

Nov 19, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Important Data Ahead

Please click here for a chart of Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Note the following:

The chart shows QQQ is near the bottom band of zone 1 (support).
RSI on the chart shows QQQ is not yet oversold.
It is critical for the stock market that QQQ does not experience a decisive break below the low band of zone 1.
We shared with you yesterday,

…the momo crowd has a pattern of buying ahead of Nvidia earnings.

As is their pattern, the momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks in the premarket ahead of Nvidia (NVDA) earnings. Nvidia earnings will be released today in the after market. Prudent investors will be paying attention to not only the data but also the stock market’s reaction.
The entire stock market direction, not just the AI trade, depends upon Nvidia earnings. Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang is one of the best CEO’s of our time. He is very good at painting a rosy picture and getting investors excited. Expect Huang to do the same this time. Here is the question: Will the stock market believe him? The momo crowd will certainly buy. It will come down to non-momo crowd investors.
Lowe’s (LOW) reported earnings better than expected, in contrast with Home Depot (HD), which reported earnings worse than expected. This is a relief and shows that the consumer may not be as weak as Home Depot earnings indicated.
Target (TGT) beat earnings expectations, reported revenues inline, and reaffirmed guidance for FY26. On the earnings conference call, Target said the consumer is cautious and prioritizing value.
Off-price retailer TJX (TJX) continues to benefit from the weakening consumer. As consumers weaken, they tend to shop more at off-price retailers. TJX is reporting earnings better than consensus.
Additional data on the consumer will come from Walmart (WMT) earnings tomorrow in the premarket.
FOMC minutes will be released today at 2pm ET.
The delayed September jobs report is scheduled to be released tomorrow morning and may be market moving. Normally, the jobs report is very important. However, the impact of this report is uncertain because of its delay.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Japan

We previously shared with you Japanese Prime Minister Takaichi has been planning stimulus. Now, it appears the stimulus will be 20T yen. In The Arora Report analysis, such a large stimulus is a concern as it may cause a further selloff in Japanese yen. This may help those who are borrowing in yen for the carry trade. These days, in the carry trade, funds are borrowed in Japan and invested in U.S. AI stocks.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

Buying in silver in the early trade is extremely aggressive.

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a build of 4.4M barrels vs. a previous build of 1.3M barrels.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6656 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6780, 7000, and 7200 : support levels are 6500, 6256, and 6131.

DJIA futures are up 80 points.

Gold futures are at $4117, silver futures are at $51.81, and oil futures are at $59.13.

NVIDIA EARNINGS WILL DETERMINE MARKET DIRECTION, HOME DEPOT SHOWS CONSUMER WEAKNESS, CHINA JAPAN FLARE UP

Nov 18, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Key Earnings Data

Please click here for a chart of Nvidia stock (NVDA).

Note the following:

The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of NVDA stock is being used to illustrate the point.
The chart shows NVDA stock has given up recent gains.
The chart shows NVDA stock is at the top band of zone 1 (support).
RSI on the chart shows NVDA stock is not yet oversold.
Nvidia earnings will be reported tomorrow in the after market.
As a member of The Arora Report, you have been ahead of the curve regarding AI related issues that are causing the current sell off in the stock market. Here is the summary:
- Overbuilding of AI data centers
- Debt financing of AI data center build
- Circular financing involving Nvidia
- Chip depreciation issues
If earnings from Nvidia can alleviate these concerns, expect a very sharp rally in the stock market. On the other hand, if Nvidia earnings heighten these concerns, expect a sharp drop in the stock market. This underscores the importance of the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band strikes the optimum balance based on probabilities of different scenarios.
Start with Arora’s Second Law of Investing and Trading, which states, “Nobody knows with certainty what is going to happen next in the markets.”
Follow with Arora’s Third Law of Investing and Trading, which states, “Making investing and trading decisions based on probabilities is the only realistic and profitable approach.”
Home Depot (HD) earnings show the consumer is weakening. Here are the details:
- For FY26, Home Depot sees earnings per share down 5% year-over-year to $14.48 vs. $14.98 consensus.
- Q3 earnings came at $3.74 per share vs. $3.84 consensus.
- FY25 sales growth came at 3% vs. 2.8% prior.
- Revenue came at $41.35B vs. $41.15B consensus.
- Customer transactions decreased 1.4%.
- Shopper spend on an average receipt increased to $90.39 year-over-year vs. $88.65 prior.
Additional data on the consumer will come from Lowe’s (LOW) and Target (TGT) earnings in the premarket tomorrow and Walmart (WMT) earnings in the premarket on Thursday.
Initial jobless claims for the week ending on Oct. 18 came at 232K vs. 219K prior.
The data from ADP for the four weeks ending November 1, 2025 shows job loss of 2500 jobs per week.
Concerns about private credit are heightened after Blue Owl Capital (OWL) made a restrictive move. Blue Owl is financing AI data centers.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

China And Japan

China is sending ships to disputed islands with Japan. China is also warning its citizens against traveling to Japan. Prudent investors should keep a close eye – a flare up between China and Japan can drag the stock market significantly lower.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOG).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. If such buying is very aggressive, the indicator will turn positive. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) continues to see selling.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6661 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6780, 7000, and 7200 : support levels are 6500, 6256, and 6131.

DJIA futures are down 349 points.

Gold futures are at $4067, silver futures are at $50.17, and oil futures are at $59.93.

MINDLESS DIP BUYERS SAVE THE STOCK MARKET – HINDENBURG OMEN APPEARS

Nov 17, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Dip Buyers Save The Market

Please click here for a chart of Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Note the following:

The chart shows QQQ was weakening going into Friday morning.
The chart shows mindless dip buying saved the stock market.
The chart shows that the morning today started with buying in QQQ, but as the morning has progressed, sellers have become dominant.
The VUD indicator is the most sensitive measure of net supply and demand in real-time. The orange represents net supply and the green represents net demand. The VUD indicator is mixed in the early market today.
The stock market was weakening for three reasons:
- Four Fed presidents had come out against a December rate cut, defying intense political pressure to cut rates. When four Fed presidents came out against a rate cut, investors had to pay attention to the data. The data does not support a rate cut. In The Arora Report analysis, based on the existing data so far, a rate cut in December will be a wrong thing for the Fed to do. However, if the Fed does the wrong thing, it will drive stocks, bitcoin, and gold higher in the short term. The stock market was counting on the Fed doing the wrong thing.
- Concerns have been mounting around large debt financing of AI data centers. A bond offering from data center company Applied Digital (APLD) became a poster child of the troubles when APLD was forced to pay 10% interest. This is a very important subject for prudent investors. For those who want next level knowledge, a podcast that tackles this subject will be available soon in Arora Ambassador Club.
- Market internals have been weakening.
Did anything change in any of the three foregoing reasons that brought in very aggressive buying? The answer is nothing has changed. All three concerns are still there. The buying came from mindless dip buyers. The limited extent of the analysis of mindless dip buyers results in aggressively buying stocks on any dip.
Among technically oriented investors, concern has arisen from the Hindenburg omen. This is a warning signal that has fired five times recently. Here are the two important points for the Hindenburg omen that prudent investors need to know:
- The Hindenburg omen has given a signal at every major top over the last 25 years.
- The Hindenburg omen has also given a large number of false warning signals.
Another concern is that many technically oriented investors believe small caps, represented by Russell 2000 ETF IWM, are showing a head and shoulders pattern. This is a bearish pattern. Prudent investors should note that the pattern is not well formed, and, as such, is suspect.
On the positive side, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) bought $4.9B worth of Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) stock.
Now that the government is open, a deluge of economic data is ahead.
Several important earnings are ahead, including Home Depot (HD), Lowe’s (LOW), Target (TGT), Nvidia (NVDA), and Walmart (WMT).
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOG).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL), Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. Wall Street machines will jump on whichever direction the stock market starts going and exaggerate the move. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) promoters have been out in full force urging their followers to buy the dip in bitcoin. Retail investors continue to buy bitcoin aggressively. Prudent investors should note that every rally attempt over the weekend and this morning failed, in spite of low liquidity. This is different from the recent pattern where low liquidity allowed bitcoin promoters to push bitcoin higher.

Markets

Interest rates and bonds are range bound.

The dollar is stronger.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6739 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6780, 7000, and 7200 : support levels are 6500, 6256, and 6131.

DJIA futures are down 99 points.

Gold futures are at $4067, silver futures are at $50.43, and oil futures are at $60.31.

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.

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