By Nigam Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report.
Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’
OVER-OWNED AI STOCK AVGO LEADING TECH STOCK SELLING, MARIJUANA STOCKS RISE ON TRUMP PUSH, NATO CHIEF WARNS
Dec 12, 2025
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Tech Stock Selling
Please click here for a chart of Broadcom stock (AVGO).
Note the following:
- The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of AVGO is being used to illustrate the point.
- After the Oracle (ORCL) debacle, investors had been looking forward to earnings from AI chip maker Broadcom.
- The chart shows the spike up in AVGO stock on earnings.
- The chart shows the reversal in AVGO stock on the conference call.
- Here are the key points about Broadcom earnings:
- The earnings were better than consensus and whisper numbers. This is what caused the stock to initially rally.
- On the conference call, AVGO stock fell indicating that the margins will be about 100 bps lower.
- In The Arora Report analysis, here are the important points about Broadcom that prudent investors need to know:
- Broadcom has become over-owned. A stock is over-owned when more investors than normal already own it, and they own much larger quantities than they would normally own.
- When a stock like AVGO is over-owned, the slightest bit of news that is not positive causes buyers to simultaneously exit through the same narrow door.
- AVGO stock has run up mostly on momo crowd buying. Lately, there has been very little smart money buying.
- Broadcom’s AI revenue is mostly concentrated from one customer. The customer is Google (GOOG, GOOGL). Broadcom has some revenue from Anthropic, but it is also around the Google design.
- There is a lot of hype for custom silicon for AI. However, investors are not understanding that custom silicon, when focused on one large customer, is inherently a low margin business.
- In addition to being over-owned, Broadcom is also significantly overvalued. As a reference point, Broadcom is more expensive than Nvidia (NVDA) by several metrics.
- This morning, on the negative side, the dip in AVGO stock is bringing in selling in many tech stocks. On the positive side, the momo crowd is aggressively buying the dip.
- Positive seasonality is in play.
- Investors continue to buy non-tech stocks as Fed Chair Powell was mostly dovish and not hawkish as anticipated.
- Aggressive buying in gold and silver that was triggered by Fed Chair Powell being dovish continues.
- In spite of rising yields, the 30-year Treasury auction went well. Here are the details:
- $22B 30-year Treasury bond
- High yield: 4.773% (When-Issued: 4.774%)
- Bid-to-cover: 2.36
- Indirect bid: 65.4%
- Direct bid: 23.5%
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Marijuana Rescheduling
President Trump is planning to reclassify marijuana from Schedule I to Schedule III. Marijuana stocks and ETFs are ripping higher, including Pure U.S. Cannabis ETF (MSOS), Amplify Alternative Harvest ETF (MJ), Tilray Brands (TLRY), and Canopy Growth (CGC). For those interested, ZYX Buy has a model marijuana portfolio. The portfolio can be accessed from the main menu.
NATO Chief Warns
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned during the Munich Security Conference that “Russia could be ready to use military force against NATO within five years.” Prudent investors should always attempt to get ahead of the curve. Consider taking this warning from Rutte seriously. European Defense ETF (EUAD) is in the ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), and Nvidia (NVDA).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Meta (META).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and negative in Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
This morning, both gold and silver and seeing aggressive buying. The buying is specially aggressive in miners. Gold miner Newmont (NEM) is in the ZYX Buy Model Portfolio. Mining ETF (XME) is in the ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio.
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.
The dollar is stronger.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 6907 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7000 and 7200 : support levels are 6780, 6500, and 6256.
DJIA futures are up 113 points.
Gold futures are at $4375, silver futures are at $64.67, and oil futures are at $57.57.
Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. The proprietary Arora Protection Band from The Arora Report is very popular. The Arora Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
Traditional 60/40 Portfolio
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
MOMO CROWD BUYS ORACLE AI CAPEX FEAR DIP, BROADCOM EARNINGS WILL EXASPERATE OR EXTINGUISH AI OVERBUILDING FEAR
Dec 11, 2025
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Key Earnings Ahead For AI Trade
Please click here for a chart of Nasdaq futures (NQ_F).
Note the following:
- The chart shows significant selling on Oracle (ORCL) earnings.
- The chart shows the momo crowd stepped in to buy the dip. Why is the momo crowd buying the dip so aggressively? The answer is to the momo crowd every tiny dip must be bought.
- The VUD indicator shows that in the early trade there is net demand for stocks. The VUD indicator is the most sensitive measure of net supply and demand in real-time. The orange represents net supply and the green represents net demand.
- Here are the key points from Oracle earnings:
- Oracle reported earnings of $2.26 vs. $1.64 consensus, but the beat was due to a one time gain from selling Oracle’s stock in Ampere to SoftBank (SFTBY).
- Revenue came at $16.06B vs. $16.19B consensus. Revenue rose by 14% year-over-year.
- The backlog rose to $523B.
- Capex was $12B vs. $8.4B consensus.
- Oracle is increasing its full year capex projection from $35B to $50B.
- The tone on the conference call was highly confident and positive. On the conference call, the company went out of its way to state the following:
- Oracle will work towards maintaining its credit rating.
- Some analysts’ estimates that Oracle will have to borrow $100B are too high.
- Oracle has a tight process in place to control its spending.
- Even though Oracle did an excellent job to alleviate fears on the conference call, it did not work. Analysts are fixated on two numbers – $12B capex spend in the last quarter and raising the full year capex by $15B. The drop in Nasdaq futures shown on the chart is a direct result of these two capex numbers from Oracle.
- In The Arora Report analysis, Oracle has a tremendous opportunity ahead. Oracle is borrowing aggressively to capture the opportunity. If Oracle is successful, ORCL stock will go much higher. ORCL stock in the very long term can move to $516 – $533. On the other hand, if rumors start flying that Oracle will get a credit downgrade, the stock will continue to fall. On a credit downgrade, ORCL stock can drop to $150. As a reference, ORCL stock is trading at $193.68 as of this writing in the premarket.
- Oracle has rekindled fears of AI overbuilding. It is hitting the stocks of Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), CoreWeave (CRWV), Nebius (NBIS), and IREN (IREN).
- In The Arora Report analysis, how ORCL stock moves from here will have a major impact on the entire stock market.
- Broadcom (AVGO) will report earnings in the after market today. Broadcom earnings have the potential to extinguish or exasperate AI overbuilding fears. Broadcom is Google’s (GOOG, GOOGL) partner for TPUs.
- Initial jobless claims came at 236K vs. 191K prior. Initial jobless claims rose, but continuing claims fell to 1.838M from prior 1.937M. Together, this set of data does not present any concern right now.
- Prudent investors should note 10-year Treasuries had a yield of 3.65% on September 18, 2024 just before the Fed started this easing cycle with a 50 bps cut. After 175 bps cuts by the Fed, the 10-year Treasury yield is now at 4.14%. Here lies the Achilles’ heel. As the Fed has lowered short term interest rates, long term interest rates have risen.
- In important news, Disney (DIS) is making a $1B investment in ChatGPT maker OpenAI and will become a major customer of OpenAI. This is not the greatest news for Google. Disney is also sending a cease and desist letter to Google.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is extremely aggressively buying silver. Silver is hitting a new all time high.
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 6865 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7000 and 7200 : support levels are 6780, 6500, and 6256.
DJIA futures are up 19 points.
Gold futures are at $4246, silver futures are at $62.80, and oil futures are at $57.35.
ORACLE EARNINGS WILL BE A TELL ON DEBT FUELED AI TRADE, GLOBAL YIELDS TO 16 YEAR HIGH AHEAD OF FED CUT
Dec 10, 2025
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Global Yields Hit 16 Year High
Please click here for a chart of Oracle stock (ORCL).
Note the following:
- The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of ORCL stock is being used to illustrate the point.
- The chart shows ORCL stock spiked up after the last earnings. The reason for the spike was Oracle saying it had $500B of backlog for its data centers.
- The chart shows ORCL stock was not able to maintain its spike up and fell when the following were discovered:
- $300B – $350B of the backlog was from ChatGPT maker OpenAI.
- The deal involved circular financing with Nvidia (NVDA).
- In The Arora Report analysis, ORCL stock would have likely pulled back to the zone of $262 – $293 and then risen much higher if it was not for the unexpected development of Oracle’s decision to go on an extreme borrowing binge.
- The chart shows ORCL stock falling as the debt binge increased.
- ORCL went from a conservative, high potential stock to a high risk, high reward stock in one quarter. For those who are interested in next level information, there is a podcast on this specific subject and several related podcasts in Arora Ambassador Club.
- Oracle reports earnings after hours today. Depending upon earnings and the commentary, the stock has the potential to move up $80 or fall $50.
- A move in ORCL stock will likely impact the entire AI trade, and especially data center stocks like IREN (IREN), Nebius (NBIS), CoreWeave (CRWV), and Cipher (CIFR). There is a profitable position on IREN in ZYX Buy. A new signal on IREN is in ZYX Buy.
- As a member of The Arora Report, you have been ahead of the curve regarding yields in Japan. Rising yields in Japan have had a major impact on global bond yields. Today, global bond yields are hitting a 16 year high. This is occurring just before the Fed is highly likely to cut interest rates.
- The consensus is the Fed’s rate cut will be accompanied by hawkish commentary. There are also likely to be dissents in both directions.
- The Fed will announce its interest rate decision today at 2pm ET, followed by a press conference from Fed Chair Powell at 2:30pm ET.
- In spite of all of the negative crosscurrents, investors should not ignore history. History tells us that the last 20 times the Fed cut interest rates when the stock market was within 2% of its all time high, 100% of the time the stock market went higher over the next 12 months. The reason is a part of the excess liquidity the Fed provides goes into the stock market. Keep in mind that this is only one of the many factors investors should consider. Investors should consider using a proven adaptive model that provides a 360 degree analysis like the ZYX Asset Allocation Model.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
China Neck To Neck In AI Race
It is not politically correct to say, but as a prudent investor, you need to know the truth, irrespective of political correctness. In The Arora Report analysis, there is significant evidence that China is neck to neck with the U.S. in the AI race. The U.S. has a big edge with Nvidia as Nvidia’s Blackwell chip is the most capable AI chip around. The U.S. has banned the export of Blackwell chips to China. How is China keeping up? China appears to be keeping up by smuggling Blackwell chips. There is a new report that the latest DeepSeek AI model was trained on smuggled Blackwell chips.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN) and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL) and Nvidia (NVDA).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), and Meta (META).
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
API crude inventories came at a draw of 4.8M barrels vs. a consensus of a draw of 1.7M barrels.
The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
A major international bank that has been uber bullish on bitcoin has cut its bitcoin targets: $100K from prior $200K in 2025, $150K from prior $300K in 2026, and $225K from prior $400K in 2027.
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 6848 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7000 and 7200 : support levels are 6780, 6500, and 6256.
DJIA futures are down 2 points.
Gold futures are at $4230, silver futures are at $61.51, and oil futures are at $58.36.
YIELDS ON LONG BONDS RISE AS FED MOVES TO A RATE CUT, NVIDIA MAY NOT SELL AS MANY CHIPS TO CHINA AS BULLS THINK
Dec 9, 2025
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Bonds Not Cooperating With Stock Market Bulls
Please click here for a chart of 20+ year Treasury bond ETF (TLT).
Note the following:
- The chart shows in October TLT moved into zone 2 (resistance) on hopes of more interest rate cuts.
- The chart shows the move into zone 2 did not last long, and TLT fell.
- The chart shows TLT is now in zone 3 (support).
- The chart shows TLT is approaching the danger zone.
- Especially noteworthy for prudent investors is what happened in 2024.
- The chart shows in 2024 TLT broke out above zone 1 (resistance) in anticipation of a 50 bps rate cut by the Fed.
- The chart shows when the Fed announced a 50 bps rate cut in 2024.
- The chart shows that at a time when everyone was extremely bullish on bonds, The Arora Report made a highly contrary call that bonds would fall. The chart shows that the highly contrary call from The Arora Report was spot on as TLT fell from above zone 1 all the way to the top band of zone 4 (support).
- The chart shows that a micro-version of what happened in 2024 is building now.
- There are several reasons why long bond yields are rising.
- Rising yields in Japan
- $38T in national debt
- Continued reckless spending by the government
- Heavy borrowing for AI data centers
- ADP data shows that the private sector added an average of 4,750 jobs per week over the four weeks ending Nov. 22.
- JOLTS job openings will be released today at 10am ET and may be market moving.
- The FOMC meeting starts today. The Fed will announce its rate decision tomorrow at 2pm ET followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Powell at 2:30pm ET.
- Nvidia (NVDA) scored a win as President Trump is now allowing Nvidia to sell its H200 chips to China. In The Arora Report analysis, Nvidia can potentially sell $30B worth of chips to China, generating $0.70 per share of additional earnings. However, China appears to be snubbing the U.S. There are indications that China may limit the number of H200 chips Chinese companies buy. China is considering ordering H200 buyers to go through an approval process. China’s motive is to push Chinese companies to help develop chips competing with Nvidia in China. The result of the foregoing is that Nvidia may not sell as many chips to China as stock market bulls think.
- Prudent investors should note new data coming out of the New York Fed – less than 26.5% of households believe their financial situation will improve in a year.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Japan
The five year JGB auction was inline with consensus. Finance Minister Katayama said that the government is closely watching bond market action. In The Arora Report analysis, if needed, the Japanese government appears to be getting ready to intervene in the markets.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Nvidia (NVDA).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Microsoft (MSFT).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.
The dollar is range bound.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 6850 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7000 and 7200 : support levels are 6780, 6500, and 6256.
DJIA futures are down 49 points.
Gold futures are at $4225, silver futures are at $59.18, and oil futures are at $58.73.
A MUST SEE CHART IF YOU OWN MAG 7 STOCKS SUCH AS NVIDIA, APPLE, OR TESLA — RISK TO AI TRADE, CHINA BEATS TARIFFS
Dec 8, 2025
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Risk To AI Trade
Please click here for a chart of Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (MAGS) and S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
- The chart compares the Magnificent Seven ETF to SPY.
- The chart shows that MAGS is lagging SPY.
- The chart shows that during the November stock market dip, MAGS had significant underperformance compared to SPY. This illustrates the newly developing risk in Mag 7 stocks.
- Performance of Mag 7 would have been much worse than shown on the chart if it were not for about a trillion dollar value added to Alphabet stock (GOOG, GOOGL) on exuberance about TPU. There are several misconceptions amongst investors about Google’s TPU.
- At a time when most portfolios are heavily overweighted in Mag 7, there are two general beliefs amongst investors:
- Mag 7 are the safest stocks.
- Mag 7 stocks will continue to rise at the same pace in the future as they have risen in the recent past.
- It is important for investors to get ahead of the curve. The chart shows the cracks are beginning to appear, and investors should be ready to change their beliefs and have access to an objective, independent source of knowledge with a long track record, such as The Arora Report. The history shows that there have been numerous times when investors had a belief in a group of stocks, as they do now in Mag 7; every time the favored group of stocks ultimately faltered, investors did not change their beliefs in time and ended up with major losses.
- At this time, it is especially important to properly diversify your portfolio. Examples of properly diversified portfolios are Core Model Portfolios in ZYX Buy and ZYX Allocation.
- All investors should consider having a systematic protection mechanism in place, such as the Arora Protection Band.
- In addition to the Fed decision, this week’s earnings from ORCL after close on December 10th and AVGO on December 11th will determine the near term course of the AI trade. ORCL has a $350B deal with OpenAI. Unless OpenAI is able to come up with a new version of ChatGPT that surpasses Google’s Gemini 3, ORCL may have to scale back capex spend on data centers. Of note is that ORCL is borrowing heavily to build these data centers. As a result, ORCL has gone from a conservative stock to a risky stock. There are rumors that OpenAI is close to a new version of ChatGPT that may be better than Gemini 3. AVGO is Google’s partner for TPUs, challenging NVDA.
- In the early trade momo crowd is buying stocks aggressively on rate cut hopes ahead of the FOMC meeting.
- The chart shows that this market is very sensitive to interest rates.
-
- The chart shows a drop in Mag 7 stocks and SPY in November when the probability of a rate cut fell to 30%.
- The chart shows that Mag 7 stocks and the market started surging back when New York Fed Governor John Williams said that he was in favor of a rate cut in December. The odds of a rate cut quickly jumped from 30% to 70% in a day, driving the stock market higher.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
China Beats Tariffs
In a historic first for any country ever, China’s trade surplus reached $1.08T for the first 11 months of this year. China achieved this historic milestone in the face of significant tariffs from the US. Just imagine what China could have accomplished if large tariffs from the US were not in place.
The historical record demonstrates China’s dominance in manufacturing and its global reach. China redirected exports that would have gone to the US to other parts of the world. This year, China’s exports to Africa have risen by 26%, to Southeast Asia by 14%, and to Latin America by 7.1%.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), and Apple (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Tesla (TSLA) and Meta (META).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and in Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 6888 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7000 and 7200: support levels are 6780, 6500, and 6256.
DJIA futures are up 20 points.
Gold futures are at $4227, silver futures are at $58.50, and oil futures are at $59.44.
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Nigam Arora
Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

