WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: WHAT PRUDENT INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW NOW

February 14, 2026

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report.

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

TAME CPI BRINGS BUYERS AFTER MOMO MARGIN SHAKEOUT, BITCOIN GOING TO ZERO CHORUS GETS LOUDER

Feb 13, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Tame CPI

Please click here for a chart of Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Note the following:

The chart shows the rally attempt failed at the top band of zone 1 (support).
The selling yesterday in QQQ seems measured because blue chip tech stocks mostly held up and non-tech stocks rallied. However, prudent investors should note that yesterday there was carnage in many of the momo crowd’s favorite tech stocks. Many momo crowd accounts were hit with margin calls exacerbating the selling. As many of the momo crowd’s favorite speculative positions were forcibly liquidated, the margin shake out spilled into gold and silver, leading to more margin calls related to gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL).
The chart shows buying is coming in today after tame Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. Here are the details:
- Headline CPI came at 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus.
- Core CPI came at 0.3% vs. 0.3% consensus.
RSI on the chart shows QQQ is approaching an oversold condition.
Here is the key question for today: Will the budding rally on tame CPI data turn into a rip roaring rally or fail? The true nature of the stock market is such that there is no way to answer this question with any confidence at this time.
Prudent investors should note that over the last eight days, 115 stocks in the S&P 500 have declined more than 7% in one day. History tells us when this happens a correction often starts. If CPI data today was hotter, there was a very high probability of a correction starting. Now, with tamer CPI data, both positive and negative crosscurrents are balancing out at this time. Wall Street machines will jump on in whichever direction the stock market starts going, exacerbating the move.
Optimism is also seeping into the stock market this morning on speculation that President Trump will go soft on China by extending current trade terms and reducing tariffs on metals, including aluminum.
The chorus that bitcoin is going to zero is growing louder. Please see the bitcoin section below.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Japan

Prudent investors need to keep an eye on Japan due to funds having borrowed hundreds of billions of dollars in Japan and invested the money in U.S. securities, lately in AI stocks. Japan’s Prime Minister Takaichi indicated that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may not hike rates in March, but a rate hike may happen later. In The Arora Report analysis, this is temporarily positive for the U.S. stock market, especially AI stocks.

Stocks in Japan continue to outperform stocks in the U.S. Please see yesterday’s Morning Capsule.

Europe

Eurozone Q4 GDP came at 0.3% vs. 0.3% consensus. GDP indicates strength in industrials, materials, and financials even though Europe is lagging in AI. Stocks in Europe continue to outperform the U.S. Please see yesterday’s Morning Capsule.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA), and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) in stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

Tamer CPI has brought in *** in gold and silver in the early trade.

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

OPEC+ is considering increasing oil production in April.

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

For the day, tamer CPI is bringing in buying in bitcoin. Once again proving that bitcoin is a speculative asset and not a hedge or store of value.

The chorus that bitcoin (BTC.USD) will go to zero is getting louder. This is nothing new. Almost always, investors suffer from recency bias. Recency bias is particularly strong in bitcoin because bitcoin does not have a fundamental value like earnings.

History shows that every time bitcoin falls below the average price of most holders (excluding bitcoin whales), the chorus of bitcoin going to zero gets louder. In contrast, every time the price of bitcoin goes above the average price of most holders (excluding bitcoin whales), a chorus that bitcoin is going to $1M gets louder.

Just like bitcoin itself, the available data on bitcoin is manipulated by bitcoin whales. For this reason, it is impossible to get accurate data. In The Arora Report analysis, the average price of most holders excluding bitcoin whales and Strategy (MSTR) is somewhere between $90,000 and $105,000. The average price of Strategy is $76,038 per bitcoin.

In The Arora Report analysis, an average bitcoin holder, excluding bitcoin whales and Strategy, is more likely to sell the rallies than buy the dip.

As a member of The Arora Report, you have been ahead of the curve. We have shared with you all along when it was a contrary opinion that bitcoin is not digital gold, is not a store of value, is not a currency, and is not a hedge; bitcoin is simply a speculative asset that is manipulated by bitcoin whales.

Note that bitcoin whales are always acting like smart money does in stocks.

As a member of The Arora Report, you were again ahead of the curve – when bitcoin was above $120,000, we shared with you that bitcoin whales were selling bitcoin taking advantage of the strength generated by the enthusiasm of retail investors. When bitcoin touched $60,000, bitcoin whales stepped in to buy to prop it up. Bitcoin whales managed to get bitcoin over $70,000 when they sold again.

It is worth repeating what we have been sharing with you for a long time. The objective of bitcoin whales is to convert their bitcoins into other assets such as dollar, yen, euro, stocks, gold, commodities, and real estate at the highest possible price over the full cycle. In contrast, many retail investors have been mistakenly converting their dollars into bitcoin as they have been highly influenced by promoters and influencers who appear to work with bitcoin whales.

For those who want to understand the true nature of bitcoin and how to best invest in it, there is a multi-part podcast series in Arora Ambassador Club titled “WHALES’ SECRETS YOU NEED TO KNOW: CAPTURING BITCOIN PROFITS.” If you want access to the series, please write to ambassador@thearorareport.com.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is range bound.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6854 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7000, 7200, and 7500 : support levels are 6780, 6500, and 6256.

DJIA futures are up 40 points.

Gold futures are at $5002, silver futures are at $78.61, and oil futures are at $63.02.

Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. The proprietary Arora Protection Band from The Arora Report is very popular. The Arora Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

TO BALANCE AI HEAVY PORTFOLIOS SMART MONEY QUIETLY SHIFTING INTO FOREIGN MARKETS – TECH STOCKS UNDERPERFORM

Feb 12, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Smart Money Shifting

Please click here for a chart of Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) compared to South Korea ETF (EWY), Brazil ETF (EWZ), Mexico ETF (EWW), Japan ETF (EWJ), Thailand ETF (THD), and Euro Stoxx 50 ETF (FEZ).

Note the following:

The U.S. is dominating AI. Just like The Arora Report portfolios, smart money portfolios are also heavily weighted in AI.
Heavy weighting in AI makes portfolios U.S. centric. Everyday now the stock market in the U.S. sees jitters about one sector or another being disrupted by AI. Nvidia (NVDA), the most prominent AI stock, is range bound. Prudent investors should note that to balance the risk of AI smart money is quietly shifting into foreign markets.
The chart shows South Korea ETF (EWY) has outperformed QQQ by 27.48%. South Korea is benefiting for two reasons:
- Two of the three major memory makers, Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) and SK Hynix (HXSCL), are in South Korea. Memory is in short supply due to high AI demand. At this time, investors perceive the risk in memory makers to be lower compared to other AI stocks even though memory makers, including Micron (MU) and Sandisk (SNDK) have gone parabolic.
- South Korea is a big exporter of industrial goods. Industrial activity is picking up across the globe.
Brazil ETF (EWZ) has outperformed QQQ by 21.33%. Brazil is a big producer of commodities. The demand for commodities is increasing as industrial activity across the globe picks up, including AI data center construction.
Mexico ETF (EWW) has outperformed QQQ by 15.57%. Mexico is benefiting from tariffs on China.
Thailand ETF (THD) has outperformed QQQ by 15.44%. Stocks in Thailand are moving up on hopes that after the recent election there will be political stability.
Japan ETF (EWJ) has outperformed QQQ by 15.26%. The Japanese market is moving up for two reasons:
- Prime Minister Takaichi is turning out to be a rockstar leader taking Japan in a new direction.
- Positive structural shifts in how Japanese corporations operate.
Euro Stoxx 50 ETF (FEZ) is outperforming QQQ by 4.36%. Stocks in Europe are outperforming QQQ because Europe has a heavier concentration of materials, industrials, and financials.
The foregoing shows that popular tech stocks in the U.S. are underperforming many international markets. The momo crowd is oblivious as usual, but smart money is already making the move.
EWJ is in the ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio. EWY, EWZ, EWW, THD are in the ZYX Emerging Model Portfolio.
Prudent investors should also note how gold acted yesterday after the very strong jobs report. For details of the jobs report, please see yesterday’s Morning Capsule. Based on history, gold should have fallen 3% – 5% yesterday. Immediately after the jobs report was released, gold experienced major selling, but then buyers came in moving gold back up. In The Arora Report analysis, this indicates that there is a segment of investors who are concerned about the high level of the U.S. stock market and are shifting more money into gold.
Initial jobless claims came at 227K vs. 230K consensus.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade. This is reflected in moves in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is range bound.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6982 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7000, 7200, and 7500 : support levels are 6780, 6500, and 6256.

DJIA futures are up 140 points.

Gold futures are at $5095, silver futures are at $82.37, and oil futures are at $64.33.

BLOWOUT JOBS REPORT DRIVES STOCK MARKET TO MAGNET, IRAN RISK, BITCOIN WHALES STEPPING IN

Feb 11, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Blowout Jobs Report

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

The chart shows the stock market is moving up in the early trade.
The chart shows the blowout jobs report is driving the stock market to the magnet.
The chart shows previous attempts to break above the magnet failed.
Here is the key question: Will the jobs report trigger a breakout above the magnet?
The jobs report is known as the mother of all reports due to its importance. Here are the details:
- Non-farm payrolls came at 130K vs. 68K consensus.
- Non-farm private payrolls came at 172K vs. 60K consensus.
- Unemployment rate came at 4.3% vs. 4.4% consensus.
- Average work week came at 34.3 vs. 34.2 consensus.
- Average hourly earnings came at 0.4% vs. 0.3% consensus.
In The Arora Report analysis, yesterday Kevin Hassett was preparing the markets for a lower number. As a result, Wall Street was positioned for a weaker jobs number in the range of 20K – 30K. The initial jump on release of the jobs report may simply be the result of positioning, and there may be reversal as the day goes by.
As of this writing, the stock market is perceiving the strong jobs report as a positive. However, prudent investors need to keep in mind that there is also a negative. The strong jobs report will make it difficult for the Fed to cut interest rates. The momo crowd is expecting several interest rate cuts. The prevailing wisdom is that politics will prevail over the data and the Fed will cut interest rates irrespective of the data. In The Arora Report analysis, if the Fed proceeds as the markets believe, the risk of inflation rising will have to be taken into account by prudent investors.
Prudent investors should keep in mind that the Iran risk is increasing. President Trump is threatening military action if a deal is not reached. Oil is rising. The stock market momo crowd is oblivious. President Trump is saying he may send a second aircraft carrier to Iran. The U.S. is considering intercepting ships carrying Iranian oil just like the U.S. did with Venezuela. The strategy was successful in Venezuela. In The Arora Report analysis, such a strategy is highly risky in Iran because unlike Venezuela, Iran is likely to retaliate. Iran could easily block the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is very narrow and a significant portion of the world’s oil is shipped through the strait.
Among notable earnings, Robinhood (HOOD) reported less than consensus and whisper numbers. HOOD has pulled back from $153.86 in October to $76.98 as of this writing in the premarket. The reason is crypto trading is very profitable for Robinhood. As cryptos have pulled back, crypto trading volume has dropped.
Among important earnings Vertiv (VRT), Cloudflare (NET), Shopify (SHOP), Generac (GNRC), Diodes (DIOD) and Lattice Semiconductor (LSCC) are reporting earnings better than expected. Lyft (LYFT), Mattel (MAT), Zillow (Z, ZG), and Astera Labs (ALAB) are reporting earnings below consensus. As a full disclosure, ZYX Short has a short position in Z, and the position is nicely profitable.
In other significant news, the FDA has rejected Moderna’s (MRNA) flu vaccine. This is important because the media has been heavily promoting MRNA stock and as a result, MRNA has been one of the best performing stocks this year.
The airspace over El Paso, Texas has been closed. The reason is not clear as of this writing. This may turn out to be important for the markets.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd was aggressively buying gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL) before the jobs report. The jobs report brought in selling. Smart money is inactive in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** oil in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

As a member of The Arora Report, you were ahead of the curve – when bitcoin (BTC.USD) was hitting $120K and everyone was uber bullish, we were sharing with you that bitcoin whales were persistently selling bitcoin into the strength. Recently when bitcoin dipped to $60K, bitcoin whales stepped in to support bitcoin. Bitcoin rallied above $70K after whales stepped in. The rally over $70K has failed, and bitcoin is trading at $67,494 as of this writing. Bitcoin whales are stepping in again to support bitcoin from falling.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7005 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7200, 7500, and 7700 : support levels are 7000, 6780, and 6500.

DJIA futures are up 278 points.

Gold futures are at $5089, silver futures are at $84.65, and oil futures are at $65.40.

TECH STOCKS ADOBE AND SALESFORCE BEATEN BY WALMART AND HERSHEY – FOBO (NOT FOMO) HITS TECH HEAVY PORTFOLIOS HARD

Feb 10, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Tech Heavy Portfolios Hit

Please click here for a chart comparing Walmart (WMT), Hershey (HSY), Adobe (ADBE), and Salesforce (CRM) stocks.

Note the following:

The chart shows year to date, stocks of retailer Walmart and chocolate maker Hershey have beaten popular tech stocks Adobe and Salesforce by a wide margin.
- HSY has beaten ADBE by 46.31%.
- WMT has beaten ADBE by 33.91%.
- HSY has beaten CRM by 49.89%.
- WMT has beaten CRM by 37.49%.
Momo crowd portfolios are highly concentrated in speculative tech because the momo crowd is driven by hype that often surrounds speculative tech.
The chart shows big gains in WMT and HSY stocks, but there is not much hype about Walmart and Hershey.
Walmart is in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio, long from $19.25. At its current price, this represents a gain of 568%. HSY is in ZYX Buy in the portfolio that surrounds the Core Model Portfolio.
FOBO (Fear Of Becoming Obsolete) and not FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) has hit many software stocks hard. Many momo crowd portfolios are as much as 60% in SaaS stocks that have been especially hard hit.
Here are important lessons for investors:
- In the long run, what stocks and ETFs you do not own is as important as which stocks and ETFs you own.
- It is very important to systematically take partial profits when stocks and ETFs you own become overextended. Please see Trade Management Guidelines for how to properly systematically take partial profits.
- Using the technique of trade around positions dramatically increases rewards and reduces risks. Please see Trade Management Guidelines to learn the technique.
- Diversification is important. Momo crowd portfolios concentrated in speculative tech lost 95% -100% in 2000, 70% – 90% in 2008, and 70% – 90% in 2022.
- Portfolios need to be properly structured. For example, The Arora Report portfolios are tech heavy but very light on software.
- Investors need to look ahead and see how various stocks and sectors may perform and not get carried away by today’s hype.
Prudent investors closely watch retail sales data as the U.S. economy is 70% consumer based. Retail sales are weaker than expected. Here is the latest retail sales data.
- October headline retail sales came at 0.0% vs. 0.4% consensus.
- October retail sales ex-auto came at 0.0% vs. 0.4% consensus.
ADP data shows that the private sector added an average of 6,500 jobs per week over the four weeks ending January 24.
Important economic data is ahead. The official jobs report will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET. Initial jobless claims will be released on Thursday at 8:30am ET. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be released Friday at 8:30am ET.
In important news Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) had its highest monthly revenue ever in January with an increase of 37%. Revenue data from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing is important for the AI trade because Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing manufactures advanced chips for Nvidia (NVDA), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and Apple (AAPL).
In a sign of the times, with so much exuberance about AI, Google (GOOG, GOOGL) is issuing a 100 year bond. The last time a company issued a 100 year bond, it was Motorola in 1997. Tech stocks crashed in 2000. Prudent investors should note that not a single company that was in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) in 1926 is still in DJIA today. The take home for investors from this observation is to not be overly aggressive with the amount of strategic positions held at this time. The time to be aggressive with strategic positions is when valuations are low, there is a bear market, investors hate stocks, or the momo crowd is disheartened – none of these are occurring today – this is the key to building extraordinary wealth in the stock market.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOG).

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade and is especially aggressive in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is inactive in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound but trading below $70,000 as of this writing. This is disappointing to bitcoin bulls because they were expecting the psychological support at $70,000 to hold.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6979 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7000, 7200, and 7500 : support levels are 6780, 6500, and 6256.

DJIA futures are down 27 points.

Gold futures are at $5074, silver futures are at $81.75, and oil futures are at $64.60.

CHINA WARNING HAMPERS BUDDING STOCK MARKET RALLY BUT HELPS GOLD; PAY ATTENTION TO HISTORIC TAKAICHI WIN

Feb 9, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

China Warning

Please click here for a chart of gold futures (GC_F).

Note the following:

The chart shows gold has moved up above $5000 again. The up move in gold is triggered by China’s warning. The same warning from China is hampering the budding stock market rally from oversold conditions.
China is warning its financial institutions to reduce their holdings of U.S. Treasuries. China is also warning its financial institutions to limit purchase of new U.S. Treasuries.
Chinese banks are large holders of U.S. Treasuries.
- China is being proactive to stop potential ire from President Trump. China is not framing this action as a loss of confidence in the U.S. but more of a diversification move.
- This is a major development prudent investors should pay attention to.
Another major international development that prudent investors need to pay attention to is the historic election win of Prime Minister Takaichi in Japan. Her Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has gained a supermajority in parliament. Takaichi’s win has major implications for investors.
- Stocks in Japan have risen on the win. Japan ETF (EWJ) is in the ZYX Allocation Core Model Portfolio. The position is very profitable.
- In The Arora Report analysis, any big dip in the Japanese stock market should be bought. There will be new signals in ZYX Allocation as appropriate.
- Takaichi’s win has a mixed impact on the carry trade. The carry trade is important because funds have borrowed hundreds of billions of dollars in Japan and invested it in U.S. securities, lately in AI stocks.
- Takaichi’s win brings Japan closer to the U.S.
- Takaichi is taking a stronger stand against China.
- Takaichi is taking a stand in favor of Taiwan.
- Takaichi is likely to spend more on defense, boosting defense stocks. Aerospace and defense ETF (ITA) as well as European defense ETF (EUAD) are in the ZYX Allocation Core Model Portfolio. Both positions are very profitable, and in due course, there will be new signals.
- Takaichi will visit the U.S. on March 19. Expect more details of the $550B planned Japanese investment in the U.S. as part of the trade deal. The details may move several stocks.
In important news, the FDA is finally acting against copycat weight loss drug company Hims & Hers Health (HIMS). In response, HIMS has reversed itself. Novo Nordisk (NVO) is filing a lawsuit. Shares of NVO and Eli Lilly (LLY) stocks are rising. On Thursday, ZYX Buy gave a signal to buy NVO stock when it was at $44.12 when NVO stock had plunged on the news of HIMS selling its copycat pills for $49 and analysts were issuing sell signals. The contrary Arora Report buy signal was based on The Arora Report’s analysis that the FDA would act. That call has proven spot on. On Friday after hours, The Arora Report gave a signal to take partial profits on NVO stock around $50.61 when NVO stock jumped on the news of FDA action. The NVO trade illustrates how investors can profit when they get ahead of the curve. Getting ahead of the curve over a period of years adds up to significant additional wealth.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Microsoft (MSFT),

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL), Meta (META),

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL).

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is inactive in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing selling on the China warning.

Markets

Interest rates and bonds are range bound.

The dollar is weaker.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6938 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7000, 7200, and 7500 : support levels are 6780, 6500, and 6256.

DJIA futures are down 80 points.

Gold futures are at $5031, silver futures are at $79.56, and oil futures are at $63.23.

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

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