WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: WHAT PRUDENT INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW NOW

March 21, 2026

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report.

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

$6 TRILLION TRIPLE WITCHING, NETANYAHU’S PERFECT TIMING SAVES THE STOCK MARKET BUT IRAN KEEPS FIRING

Mar 20, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Line In The Sand

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

The chart shows that as the last trading hour approached yesterday, SPY was trading below 660 (S&P 500 6600). For many large funds, S&P 500 at 6600 is a line in the sand.
6600 was a very important level for S&P 500 as many large investors using different strategies were all converging on selling if it appeared S&P 500 was going to close below 6600.
There were indications that a huge avalanche of selling was about to hit the stock market in the last hour of trading. Such selling would have pushed S&P 500 to the support zone shown on the chart in yesterday’s Morning Capsule.
In a stroke of perfect timing, news crossed the wires that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu said Iran “can no longer enrich uranium or manufacture ballistic missiles.”
The chart shows that Prime Minister Netanyahu’s comment triggered extremely aggressive buying. The buying was from the momo crowd, not smart money.
The chart shows The Arora Report’s proprietary VUD indicator was negative as the momo crowd extremely aggressively bought stocks. This is an example of the very high value of the VUD indicator as it clearly showed that as the stock market rose, there was net supply of stocks. The VUD indicator is the most sensitive measure of net supply and demand in real-time. The orange represents net supply and the green represents net demand.
Prime Minister Netanyahu also said that Israel would help the U.S. open the Strait of Hormuz and the war would end “a lot faster than people think.” Prime Minister Netanhyau also provided cover for President Trump saying that Israel acted alone in attacking Iran’s South Pars.
When the momo crowd was extremely aggressively buying stocks, why was smart money sitting on the sidelines? At The Arora Report, the following points immediately arose:
- Even if Prime Minister Netanyahu’s claim that Iran can no longer manufacture ballistic missiles is true, Iran had plenty of existing ballistic missiles that it could use to continue firing.
- Iran has plenty of other weapons such as drones.
- A claim that Iran could no longer enrich uranium could be a pretext to declare victory, but in the immediate battle, no one is using nuclear bombs.
- Israel has no well known capabilities to open the Strait of Hormuz.
- Not long ago on March 9, President Trump said the war was a short excursion. The momo crowd interpreted it as the war was about to end and aggressively bought. However, the Iran war is still continuing.
The chart shows that this morning, the stock market’s hopium was dashed and a rethink occurred as Iran continued firing.
Expect a lot of volatility today due to about $6T of notional value of triple witching. In triple witching, stock index futures, options on indexes, and options on stocks expire on the same day. In recent history, most triple witchings have been to the plus side. As of now, it is difficult to call this one.
Friday also brings cross currents. Many short sellers cover because they do not want to take the risk of the weekend. This pushes the stock market higher. Similarly, many large stock market players trim or hedge long positions to reduce risk over the weekend, thus pushing the stock market to the downside. The last three Fridays have been down. Over the weekends, pumpers pumped stocks, and the momo crowd bought stocks aggressively on the following Mondays.
On the positive side, FedEx (FDX) reported earnings above whisper numbers. FDX earnings are important because they are an indication of the state of the economy.
The momo crowd is already sitting on huge losses on one of their favorite stocks Super Micro Computer (SMCI). Super Micro Computer makes AI servers. You may recall that at least twice, The Arora Report highlighted the chart of SMCI stock in the Morning Capsules to illustrate the insanity of the momo crowd’s actions. SMCI stock peaked above $120 (split adjusted). ZYX Short from The Arora Report gave signals to short SMCI. SMCI closed at $30.79 and is trading at $23.27 as of this writing in the premarket. The U.S. government has charged a co-founder of SMCI and two other individuals for a brazen scheme to smuggle advanced Nvidia (NVDA) chips into China.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd ***. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is *** due to triple witching. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade, and this is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6644 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6780, 7000, and 7200 : support levels are 6600, 6481, and 6322.

DJIA futures are down 171 points.

Gold futures are at $4680, silver futures are at $71.92, and oil futures are at $95.03.

Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. The proprietary Arora Protection Band from The Arora Report is very popular. The Arora Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

STOCK MARKET FATE NOW IN THE HANDS OF IRAN AS PRESIDENT TRUMP CALLS FOR DE-ESCALATION, SELLING IN GOLD

Mar 19, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Change In Arora Protection Band

There is a change in the Arora Protection Band. Please see the section below.

Stock Market’s Fate In Iran’s Hands

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

The chart shows the stock market is making a lower low. Prudent investors should note that the lower low is in spite of aggressive buying by the momo crowd and a serious attempt by President Trump to stop the bleeding.
RSI on the chart shows that despite making a lower low, the stock market is not oversold.
The chart shows zone 1 (support) is ahead.
In yesterday’s Morning Capsule, we shared with you:

Until this morning, the U.S. had refrained from attacking Iran’s energy infrastructure. Israel has attacked Iran oil storage facilities. In The Arora Report analysis, restraint by the U.S. has been prudent because if the U.S. were to attack Iran’s energy infrastructure, Iran would attack the energy infrastructure of U.S. allies in the Gulf.

South Pars gas field has been attacked. South Pars is a very large gas field in Iran.

The U.S. was correct in its strategy of not attacking Iran’s oil and gas fields. But in the fog of war, everything does not always stay under control.
Iran quickly retaliated by attacking LNG facilities in Qatar causing “extensive damage” at Ras Laffan. Ras Laffan is the largest LNG facility in the world.
President Trump tried to control the situation by calling for de-escalation and saying Israel will not attack South Pars again.
Iran has rebuffed President Trump and has continued to attack energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the U.A.E., and Kuwait.
The situation is dynamic. The latest from Iran, as of this writing, is that Iran plans to continue attacking energy infrastructure in Gulf countries in retaliation for the attack on South Pars in defiance of President Trump’s call for de-escalation.
As the chess game continues, in a remarkable turn of events, the U.S. is saying that it may lift sanctions on Iranian oil on the water. The U.S. objective is to keep a cap on oil prices. In The Arora Report analysis, such a move will give more dollars to Iran, helping it finance the war.
Treasury Secretary Bessent is floating the idea of making Kharg Island a U.S. asset. Kharg Island is a part of Iran, and 90% of Iran’s oil is exported from Kharg Island.
For investors, some history on the Arora Protection Band will be helpful.
- In 2007, when the stock market was hitting all time highs, the Arora Protection Band was raised to 100%. The Arora Report could confidently make that move because there was data to show the housing market would crash and subprime loans would crash the stock market. Subsequently in 2008, the S&P 500 fell by 50%.
- In January 2000, The Arora Report started raising the Protection Band which ultimately rose to over 88%. The stock market continued to make new highs with S&P 500 reaching 3386, then the stock market started crashing. In early March, The Arora Report lowered buy zones way below where stocks and ETFs were trading. In late March, the buy zones filled, and the stock market dropped as low as 2237, a 34% decline. The Arora Report could confidently raise the Protection Band because in The Arora Report analysis the evidence was there that the coronavirus would cause a pandemic even though the stock market was ignoring the evidence.
- The landscape for making changes to the Arora Protection Band now is different. There are two sides to the war. As you know, early on we predicted that President Trump would seek an off ramp and declare victory. For this reason, the Arora Protection Band was raised one day before the war started to a maximum protection of up to 49%. Since then, the Arora Protection Band was lowered in anticipation of President Trump declaring victory. President Trump did declare that the Iran war would end soon and the war was a short excursion, causing the stock market to rally. However, Iran continues to rebuff President Trump.
We have shared with you before that Iran was concluding that a long war was in its interest. The latest Iran defiance of President Trump’s call for de-escalation indicates that Iran is not ready to end the war. For this reason, the Arora Protection Band is being raised again.
Here is the key question: Even with Iran deciding that a long war is in its best interest, how long can Iran take the pounding of the American might? The answer is not clear at this time. There are two scenarios:
- Iran comes to the table, and the stock market stages a rip-roaring rally.
- Iran continues to attack energy infrastructure, oil jumps over $140, and the stock market falls. If the stock market falls, support (shown on the chart) is not far off.
- The best course for investors is to stay tuned to the Capsules and posts from The Arora Report.
Initial jobless claims came at 205K vs. 215K consensus.
Gold is falling, please see the gold section below.
Micron (MU) earnings were a blowout, surpassing whisper numbers, but MU stock is falling, dampening overall sentiment.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***, but can quickly turn based on news and rumors about the war. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

Gold and silver are seeing *** due to rising interest rates.

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing selling.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is weaker.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6629 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6780, 7000, and 7200 : support levels are 6500, 6256, and 6131.

DJIA futures are down 345 points.

Gold futures are at $4586, silver futures are at $67.58, and oil futures are at $96.13.

MEMORY SUPERCYCLE PROPELS MICRON AND HOTTEST STOCK MARKET; HOT PPI AND ATTACK ON SOUTH PARS DAMPEN POSITIVE SENTIMENT

Mar 18, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Hotter Inflation

Please click here for a chart of Micron stock (MU).

Note the following:

The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of MU stock is being used to illustrate the point.
The chart shows MU stock has broken out of zone 1 (support).
The chart shows MU stock has gone parabolic for the second time since late 2025.
The chart shows that the trendline this time has a much steeper slope than the prior trendline. The reason is that unlike Nvidia (NVDA), MU stock has not been over-owned, and late comers in the momo crowd are super aggressively buying MU stock.
RSI on the chart shows divergence, indicating the internal upward momentum is now slower. An RSI divergence often leads to a pullback.
As a member of The Arora Report, you have been ahead of the curve. We shared with you a long time ago when the cycle had not even started, that AI needs high bandwidth memory and Micron was sold out of high bandwidth memory. To get a grip on the memory supercycle, take a look at these numbers:
- Consensus estimate for Micron earnings per share is $9.19 vs. $1.56 last year. Whisper numbers are over $10. Further, Micron is showing gross margins of 69%. This is extremely high for the memory business.
Micron will report earnings after the close today. Micron earnings will impact not only the AI trade but the entire stock market. Other stocks that move with MU as a group are SNDK, WDC, and STX.
Long time members of The Arora Report are long MU from an average of $21.77. It is trading at $467.83 as of this writing in the premarket, representing a gain of 2049%. MU is in ZYX Buy in the portfolio that surrounds the Core Model Portfolio.
The hottest stock market in the world is South Korea. The South Korean stock market is primarily driven by two memory makers: SK Hynix (HXSCL) and Samsung (SSNLF). South Korea ETF (EWY) is in ZYX Emerging. From the April 9, 2025 buy signal, EWY is long from $48.60, just before the South Korean market rise started. Recently, The Arora Report gave a signal to take partial profits on EWY as high as $150.69 for a gain of 210%.
Until this morning, the U.S. had refrained from attacking Iran’s energy infrastructure. Israel has attacked Iran oil storage facilities. In The Arora Report analysis, restraint by the U.S. has been prudent because if the U.S. were to attack Iran’s energy infrastructure, Iran would attack the energy infrastructure of U.S. allies in the Gulf.
Earlier this morning, the sentiment in the stock market was very positive, and the momo crowd was aggressively buying stocks, especially AI related stocks. Two developments added to the already very positive sentiment:
- Eurozone CPI came at 0.6% month-over-month vs. 0.7% consensus. Better than expected CPI in Europe lifted European stocks, and the positive sentiment carried to U.S. stocks.
- President Trump again indicated that the Iran war would be short.
As the morning progressed, the momo crowd was buying aggressively as if the war was over. Two developments injected a dose of reality:
- Producer Price Index (PPI) came hotter than expected. Here are the details:
  - Headline PPI came at 0.7% vs. 0.3% consensus.
  - Core PPI came at 0.5% vs. 0.4% consensus.
- South Pars gas field has been attacked. South Pars is a very large gas field in Iran.
The FOMC interest rate decision will be announced at 2pm ET, followed by a press conference from Fed Chair Powell at 2:30pm ET.
Given the PPI data, it will be very difficult for anyone to cut interest rates based on logic. Of course, advocating for interest rate cuts based on politics is a different animal.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is *** due to the South Pars news. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

Of special note is the momo crowd is *** gold as if the Iran war is over. There is aggressive *** in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a build of 6.6M barrels vs. a consensus of a draw of 0.6M barrels.

Earlier in the morning, the momo crowd was *** oil. As of this writing, there is aggressive buying in oil after the news of the attack on South Pars.

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing selling on hot PPI and the attack on South Pars.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6737 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6780, 7000, and 7200 : support levels are 6500, 6256, and 6131.

DJIA futures are down 220 points.

Gold futures are at $4882, silver futures are at $77.84, and oil futures are at $96.90.

SELL THE NEWS REACTION TO GREAT NVIDIA GTC, AI IN SPACE; STOCK MARKET SENTIMENT VERY POSITIVE

Mar 17, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Sell The News Reaction

Please click here for a chart of Nvidia stock (NVDA).

Note the following:

The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of NVDA stock is being used to illustrate the point.
The chart shows the spike up in NVDA stock when Jensen Huang said at the GPU Tech Conference (GTC) that Nvidia now expects $1T in orders for Blackwell and Vera Rubin chips through 2027. As a reference, last year, Nvidia projected sales of $500B from Blackwell and Vera Rubin chips through 2026. The news was better than anyone expected, and that was the reason behind NVDA stock jumping to yesterday’s high shown on the chart.
The chart shows the high did not sustain. There was a sell the news reaction with aggressive selling in NVDA stock.
The chart shows NVDA stock is like a coiled spring. There were high hopes that GTC would launch a strong rally in NVDA stock and break out of the spring formation to the upside. Even though Nvidia GTC has been extremely bullish, the sell the news reaction is not unexpected by members of The Arora Report. As a member of The Arora Report, you have been ahead of the curve – we have been sharing with you that NVDA stock is over-owned. When a stock is over-owned, the formation seen on the chart is common. In our over 30 years in the markets, we have seen this formation repeated time and time again.
Long time members of The Arora Report are long NVDA from an average of $12.55. NVDA is trading at $183.59 as of this writing in the premarket, representing a 1363% gain.
Nvidia GTC was extremely bullish with a number of announcements. Most notable was Nvidia launching space computing. We previously shared with you that Elon Musk sees big opportunities for AI in space. Many experts have dismissed Musk’s space AI comments as unrealistic. Now, Nvidia is focusing on AI in space by bringing AI compute to space data centers. For those interested in next level information on space AI data centers, there are podcasts in Arora Ambassador Club. In 2022, The Arora Report was one of the first, if not the first, to come out of the gate with conviction that AI was real and a fortune is to be made all the way to 2030. We repeated this high conviction AI call numerous times to help investors. Now looking ahead, all investors should be open to new opportunities in space.
A very important event ahead for investors in AI is Micron (MU) earnings to be released after the close tomorrow.
The FOMC meeting starts today. The rate decision will be announced tomorrow at 2pm ET and will be followed by a press conference from Fed Chair Powell at 2:30pm ET. There are very low expectations of a rate cut due to the rise in oil prices from the Iran war.
President Trump has delayed his meeting with China’s President Xi so that he can be in the U.S. to direct the Iran war.
Even though Wall Street expects the Iran war to end soon and President Trump keeps saying that Iran has very little left, Iran continues to fight defiantly. Israel says that it has killed Iran’s security chief Larijani.
After falling yesterday on hopes of the Iran war ending soon, oil prices are back on the rise. As to many observers, the postponement of President Trump’s visit to China indicates that the war may be longer.
China buys about 90% of Iranian oil and wants to capture Taiwan. Prudent investors should note that for investors, the Iran war has significant geopolitical implications in the long run, especially related to China’s ambitions to capture Taiwan. A delay in President Trump’s visit buys China more time.
In spite of the Iran war, rising gas prices in the U.S, fears of stagflation, the FOMC meeting, and the sell the news reaction in NVDA stock, stock market sentiment is very positive according to the proprietary indicators at The Arora Report.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is buying stocks in the early trade. Smart money is inactive in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade, and this is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) continues to see more buying on hopes of a quick end to the Iran war.

Markets

Interest rates and bonds are range bound.

The dollar is range bound.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6770 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6780, 7000, and 7200 : support levels are 6500, 6256, and 6131.

DJIA futures are up 150 points.

Gold futures are at $5023, silver futures are at $80.94, and oil futures are at $95.55.

WALL STREET POSITIONED POSITIVE IN THE STOCK MARKET – NVIDIA GTC, FOMC, AND OPEX ADD CROSS CURRENTS

Mar 16, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Positive Positioning

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

The chart shows the stock market is rallying this morning.
RSI on the chart shows that the stock market had previously become oversold. Now, the chart shows RSI is rising, and the stock market is no longer oversold.
The chart shows the major support zone (zone 1). This support zone will come into the picture if the Iran war continues longer or oil infrastructure is damaged.
Over the weekend, there were a lot of concerns that due to the U.S. bombing Kharag Island, Monday could be a bloodbath in the stock market. However, those thinking of a bloodbath missed the point – the U.S. did not bomb oil infrastructure on Kharag Island and limited bombing only to military sites. The oil terminal on Kharag Island carries 90% of Iran’s oil exports.
On Sunday evening, oil futures opened higher and stock futures opened lower. Oil futures quickly gave up gains. As oil futures gave up gains, stock futures rose.
Buying in the stock market and selling in oil that started on Sunday evening has become more aggressive this morning in the early trade.
Wall Street positioning remains positive in the stock market.
Sentiment is very positive as Wall Street believes TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out) is around the corner.
Last week, President Trump said that the Iran war was a “little excursion” and would be over soon. However, Iranians appear to believe a longer war is in their best interest. The prevailing consensus on Wall Street is that continued heavy bombing will help President Trump find an off ramp quickly.
It is important for investors to not buy into one scenario but instead to look at multiple scenarios.
In The Arora Report analysis, here are the major scenarios:
- The Iran war ends soon – 55% probability
- The Iran war continues longer – 25% probability
- Other scenarios such as lower level war – 20% probability
Investors should start with Arora’s Second Law of Investing and Trading, which states, “Nobody knows with certainty what is going to happen next in the markets” and follow with Arora’s Third Law, which states, “Making investing and trading decisions based on probabilities is the only realistic and profitable approach.”
Nvidia (NVDA) GTC starts today. In the past, Nvidia GTC has triggered major moves. This time the bar is much higher for Nvidia GTC. Nvidia plans to introduce a new inference chip at GTC this week. This is critical because Nvidia became the largest company in the world on the strength of its chips being used for AI training. As we go forward, inference will become extremely important. Also expect announcements related to optical networking and use of optics in semiconductors. Stocks of interest are AAOI, AMKR, LASR, GLW, HIMX, MRVL, COHR, and LITE.
Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released on Wednesday at 8:30am ET.
The FOMC will announce its rate decision on Wednesday at 2pm ET followed by a press conference from Fed Chair Powell at 2:30pm ET.
Complicating the matter is option expiration on Friday. Over the last several months, option expiration has exerted a positive influence on the stock market in the expiration week. This time, there are factors that can exert both negative and positive influences in the stock market.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is positive but can quickly turn based on news and rumors about the war. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade, and this is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying on the hopium that the Iran war will end soon and “risk on” will become the trading theme.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6747 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6780, 7000, and 7200 : support levels are 6500, 6256, and 6131.

DJIA futures are up 347 points.

Gold futures are at $5025, silver futures are at $80.05, and oil futures are at $95.82.

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

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