WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: WHAT PRUDENT INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW NOW

May 23, 2026

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report.

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

SEMI MANIA HELPED BY IRAN OPTIMISM, POTENTIAL SHORT SQUEEZE AHEAD

May 22, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Iran Optimism

Please click here for a chart of leveraged semiconductor ETF (SOXL).

Note the following:

The chart shows semiconductors rallied yesterday on Iran peace hopes.
The chart shows semiconductors are rallying again in the early trade on Iran peace hopes.
The chart shows zone 1 (resistance).
Today is Friday before a long weekend. Expect liquidity to be low. Low liquidity and the potential of an Iran deal over the weekend are precisely the conditions that can lead to a vicious short squeeze driving the stock market, especially semiconductors, higher than you would think.
If a short squeeze carries SOXL above zone 1, technically oriented investors will jump in on the breakout. For the momo crowd, SOXL at $200 will become the magnet.
Semiconductors are the leading sector. If semiconductors go higher, they will carry the entire stock market higher.
Yesterday was full of conflicting reports on Iran. These reports ranged from a deal was reached to there is no progress on the two sticky issues of uranium and opening the Strait of Hormuz. This morning, there is an unconfirmed report that the Pakistani Army Chief is on his way to Iran. This report is bringing in significant buying in the stock market, selling in oil, and buying in bonds.
For investors, all of the noise and conflicting reports regarding Iran can be difficult, especially since President Trump has been saying the deal was close for several weeks. The best way to cut through the noise is to follow the proprietary Arora Protection Band.
Kevin Warsh will be sworn in as Fed Chair today. Warsh has a difficult job as President Trump expects him to cut interest rates. However, he cannot cut interest rates without support from the majority of FOMC members. As we have previously shared with you, a majority of FOMC members are open to a rate hike and certainly do not want to cut interest rates.
In The Arora Report analysis, the present Fed policy is in favor of easing. Expect negotiations between Warsh and the rest of the FOMC. Expect the rest of the FOMC to push Warsh to change Fed policy to neutral as a first step.
Leading economic index and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.
China is the clear winner from the Iran conflict. During President Trump’s visit to China he was pushed hard by China to stop $14B worth of arms sales to Taiwan. Acting Navy Secretary Hung Cao is saying the U.S. is pausing arms sales to Taiwan. The reason Cao is citing is to make sure the U.S. has enough ammunition for the Iran conflict. The U.S. Congress approved arms sales to Taiwan in January, but it requires President Trump’s signature. In The Arora Report analysis, the pause in arms sales will cause anxiety in Taiwan, and China will count it as a win.
Chinese AI and semiconductor stocks have not moved up anywhere close to the U.S. AI and semiconductor stocks. For those who can handle the China risk, China is an opportunity. ZYX Emerging has continuously covered China for 19 years. The plan is to add a new ETF in the ZYX Emerging Model Portfolio that covers the semiconductor supply chain in China.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Alphabet (GOOG) and Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade. Smart money is inactive in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is range bound.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7498 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7500, 7700, and 7900 : support levels are 7200, 7000, and 6780.

DJIA futures are up 390 points.

Gold futures are at $4521, silver futures are at $76.11, and oil futures are at $96.44.

Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. The proprietary Arora Protection Band from The Arora Report is very popular. The Arora Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

BONDS APPROACH DANGER ZONE FOR STOCKS AS SEMI MANIA TEMPERED BY CROSSING URANIUM REDLINES, U.S. TO INVEST IN QUANTUM

May 21, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Danger Zone For Stocks

Please click here for a chart of 20+ year Treasury bond ETF (TLT).

Note the following:

The chart shows TLT has fallen into zone 4 (support).
The chart shows the new danger zone for stocks.
The FOMC minutes show widespread support for a rate hike. President Trump appointed Warsh as Fed Chair to lower interest rates, but Warsh cannot do it alone. He needs the support of the FOMC.
Based on the current data, in The Arora Report analysis, there is a 60% probability of a rate hike in 2026. Of course, the probability will decrease if the Iran conflict is resolved quickly.
What is happening in the bond market is a major reason, along with the upcoming midterm elections, for President Trump to resolve the Iran conflict quickly.
President Trump is running into two conflicting redlines regarding Iran’s uranium.
- Iran’s Supreme Leader is reportedly saying that Iran’s enriched uranium must stay in Iran. He believes the removal of enriched uranium will increase the likelihood of another attack on Iran. This is not confirmed.
- In contrast, Israel’s redline is that enriched uranium must be removed from Iran. Israel believes if enriched uranium stays in Iran, Iran will pose an existential threat to Israel in the future.
After great earnings from Nvidia (NVDA), the semiconductor mania was progressing in the early trade, but the buying has been stopped in its tracks by the alleged statement from Iran’s Supreme Leader.
Iran’s Supreme Leader’s alleged statement is causing oil to rise and bonds to fall. As of this writing in the premarket, there are unconfirmed reports that the White House is claiming the report of Iran’s Supreme Leader’s statement is false.
Samsung (SSNLF) workers are no longer going on strike. This is good news for memory supply as Samsung is the largest memory maker in the world. Good news for memory supply is bad news for memory and disk drive stocks such as Micron (MU), Sandisk (SNDK), Western Digital (WDC), and Seagate (STX). To counter, these companies are making a case for long term rising demand. Prudent investors should note that memory stocks rose on the potential of the Samsung strike and then rose again on the Samsung strike resolution. To the uninitiated, this does not seem logical. However, this is exactly how bull markets work. The momo crowd buys on good news and bad news.
The U.S. is investing $2B in nine quantum computing companies. The companies receiving funds include International Business Machines (IBM), Global Foundries (GFS), Rigetti Computing (RGTI), D-Wave Quantum (QBTS), and Infleqtion (INFQ). Quantum computing stocks are jumping.
Walmart (WMT) is the largest retailer. For this reason, Walmart earnings matter. Walmart earnings are below whisper numbers. Walmart beat revenues but is issuing soft guidance. Tax refunds helped, but the consumer is still getting hurt by higher gas prices. WMT is in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio, long from an average of $19.25. WMT stock is trading at $127.13 as of this writing in the premarket, representing a gain of 560%.
Initial jobless claims came at 209K vs. 210K consensus.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Housing Starts

Housing starts are staying strong in spite of rising rates.

Housing starts came at 1.465M vs. 1.42M consensus.

Building permits came at 1.442M vs. 1.38M consensus.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), and Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** in stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7427 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7500, 7700, and 7900 : support levels are 7200, 7000, 6780.

DJIA futures are down 139 points.

Gold futures are at $4516, silver futures are at $75.37, and oil futures are at $100.75.

SEMI MANIA RESUMES AHEAD OF NVIDIA EARNINGS ON SAMSUNG WOES AND TANKERS EXITING HORMUZ

May 20, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Samsung Strike

Please click here for a chart of leveraged semiconductor ETF (SOXL).

Note the following:

The chart shows yesterday SOXL traded in the range of $135.02 – $160.54 and closed at $151.89. In traditional technical analysis, the fact that the closing was so much higher than the low price is seen as a sign that the semiconductor rally is ready to resume again. No investor should rely solely on technical analysis as it no longer works as well as it used to.
The chart shows this morning semiconductor stocks are rallying.
Semiconductors are rallying for the following reasons:
- Samsung (SSNLF) is expected to face a strike starting tomorrow. Samsung is the largest memory chip maker in the world. This is especially helping the stocks of Micron (MU) and Sandisk (SNDK).
- Two fully loaded Chinese tankers and one Korean tanker have exited the Strait of Hormuz. This is giving rise to optimism that oil will start moving through the Strait of Hormuz soon. As a result, oil is pulling back.
- As oil pulls back, on the prospect of lower oil prices helping inflation, yields are pulling back and bonds are moving higher.
- Vice President Vance is talking up a deal with Iran. Iran is saying it will retaliate beyond the Middle East if the U.S. attacks again. However, as has been the case, the stock market reacts positively to any potentially good news related to Iran but ignores any potential negative news.
- This morning, there is optimism that Nvidia (NVDA) earnings will exceed whisper numbers. As is their pattern, the momo crowd is buying NVDA stock and semiconductor stocks ahead of Nvidia earnings. Earnings is a risk event, both to the upside and the downside. As previously shared with you, NVDA stock fell after earnings in three of the last four quarters. The momo crowd buys ahead of risk events because the momo crowd considers only potential rewards and ignores the risks. In contrast, smart money typically does not buy ahead of risk events because smart money looks at both risk and reward.
SpaceX (SPCX) IPO paperwork is likely to become public this afternoon. This will likely add more excitement to investors and result in more buying of stocks.
In important earnings, Target (TGT) earnings are better than whisper numbers. Target’s turnaround is in progress. Lowe’s (LOW) earnings are inline with whisper numbers.
FOMC minutes will be released at 2pm ET.
Philadelphia Fed President Paulson suggests an interest rate hike is on the table.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Europe

Kocher of the European Central Bank (ECB) is saying that ECB may hike interest rates in June if the Iran war does not end.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), and Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a draw of 9.1M barrels vs. a consensus of a draw of 3.4M barrels.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is range bound.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7406 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7500, 7700, and 7900 : support levels are 7200, 7000, and 6780.

DJIA futures are up 157 points.

Gold futures are at $4499, silver futures are at $75.78, and oil futures are at $101.83.

CHINA FEAR AND SEAGATE COMMENT STOP SEMI MANIA BUT NVIDIA CAN REIGNITE, TRUMP BUYS MORE TIME

May 19, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Semi Mania Takes A Breather

Please click here for a chart of leveraged semiconductor ETF (SOXL).

Note the following:

The chart shows the largest red candle yesterday since the semi mania started that led to a 366% gain to the peak from March 30.
The chart shows that in the early trade today semiconductors continue to sell off.
RSI on the chart shows semiconductors have lost internal momentum, but RSI is at a point where the semi mania can easily reignite.
The big red candle shown on the chart was triggered by the following:
- An ex-Samsung executive in South Korea said China was ramping up memory production. In The Arora Report analysis, memory is easier to make than advanced AI chips and production from China can potentially cause memory prices to collapse.
- Seagate (STX), a disk drive maker, said it would take too long to buy new machines and build new factories. In The Arora Report analysis, the Seagate statement implies Seagate does not see demand continuing at this rate beyond two to three years.
As a member of The Arora Report, you have been ahead of the curve. We previously shared with you that in The Arora Report analysis the demand for semiconductors will slow in 2028. Markets typically look 6 – 12 months ahead and sometimes 18 months ahead. We also previously shared with you that a great short selling opportunity may be ahead. It is important to reemphasize short selling takes experience and practice. Just like an athlete practices before an event, if you are interested in the upcoming opportunity, you need to begin training now. The best way to train is to be a member of ZYX Short – consider initially not taking any signals, simply follow and learn.
Nvidia (NVDA) will report earnings after the market close tomorrow. Nvidia can easily reignite the semi mania. On the other hand, if Nvidia disappoints, semiconductors can see a steep sell off.
Even after the pullback, members of The Arora Report have very large gains on semiconductors. Examples include 6770% gain on semiconductor ETF (SMH), 3031% gain on memory maker Micron (MU), 2485% gain on semiconductor equipment maker Applied Materials (AMAT), and 1671% gain on NVDA. Other notable semiconductor positions with great gains are Texas Instruments (TXN), Analog Devices (ADI), NXP Semiconductors (NXPI), and Qualcomm (QCOM). There is merit to hedging and/or taking partial profits on semiconductor positions. Here is the key question: Is it better to hedge and/or take partial profits today or is it better to wait until after Nvidia earnings? The answer is to do some today and wait for Nvidia earnings to do more.
In addition to Nvidia earnings, we will be paying careful attention to the following:
- Announcement of a massive buyback
- Nvidia positioning against Google (GOOG, GOOGL) TPU and other custom silicons
- Timing of Vera Rubin, the next generation AI chips
Home Depot (HD) is the largest home improvement retailer. This is the reason Home Depot earnings matter. Home Depot reported earnings better than consensus but slightly less than whisper numbers. EPS came at $3.43 vs. $3.41 consensus. Revenue came at $41.77B vs. $41.51B consensus. The company sees FY26 revenue up 2.5% – 4.5% and EPS up 4% from $14.69 vs. $15.04 consensus.
President Trump has bought more time to solve the thorny Iran problem by saying that on request from Middle East leaders he postponed a massive attack on Iran that was scheduled for today. Immediately after President Trump’s statement, stocks rallied, oil fell, and yields retreated.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Alphabet (GOOG) and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is selling stocks in the early trade. Smart money is selling stocks in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing selling.

Markets

Interest rates and bonds are range bound.

The dollar is range bound.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7402 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7500, 7700, and 7900 : support levels are 7200, 7000, and 6780.

DJIA futures are down 73 points.

Gold futures are at $4541, silver futures are at $76.40, and oil futures are at $103.51.

SEMI AND OPTIONS MANIA COLLIDE WITH BOND ROUT AHEAD OF EARNINGS FROM NVIDIA, HOME DEPOT, AND WALMART

May 18, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Important Earnings Ahead

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

The chart shows that the stock market is bouncing from the earlier loss.
On Sunday evening, significant selling came into stock futures on rising oil prices and falling bonds.
This morning, oil started falling and bonds started rising on unconfirmed reports from Iran that the U.S. is offering a temporary waiver on oil sanctions. As oil fell and bonds rebounded, significant buying came into stock futures. As of this writing, there is another unconfirmed report that Iran has agreed to a long term nuclear freeze and conditional transfer of uranium to Russia. This report is bringing in more buying, especially in semiconductor stocks.
Investors should keep a close eye on statements from President Trump regarding Iran. The stock market believes that President Trump is trying hard to find a way to declare victory and extract the U.S. from the Iran war. The road block is that Iran is not agreeing to open the Strait of Hormuz unless the U.S. gives significant concessions. In The Arora Report analysis, the real issue stopping an agreement with Iran is that both President Trump and Iran want to declare victory but neither one wants the other to sound victorious.
The bond market is now discounting a 52% probability of a rate hike in 2026. Only a week ago, prior to hot Producer Price Index and Consumer Price Index, the probability of a rate hike in 2026 was only 24%.
Dual mania of extremely aggressive buying of semiconductors and call options by the momo crowd continues. In The Arora Report analysis, the dual mania will collide with important earnings ahead.
- Nvidia (NVDA) will report earnings on Wednesday after the close. NVDA stock has moved higher going into earnings. Whisper numbers are higher than the consensus. Stocks move based on the difference between whisper numbers and reported numbers. Whisper numbers are the numbers analysts share with their best clients and are different from the numbers the same analysts publish for public consumption. In three of the last four quarters, NVDA stock fell after earnings because earnings were above consensus but below whisper numbers.
- Important retail earnings are ahead from Lowe’s (LOW), Home Depot (HD), Walmart (WMT), and Target (TGT). Walmart earnings are most important as Walmart stock has done well, but it is very expensive, trading at 43 times forward PE. WMT is in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio long from an average of $19.25. WMT stock is trading at $131.55 as of this writing in the premarket, representing a gain of 583%. LOW is also in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio and is near the buy zone as of this writing in the premarket.
Due to the K-shaped economy in which lower and middle income people are hurting, there is significant concern about retailers. In The Arora Report analysis, the last quarter was likely fine because tax payers received 18% more in refunds compared to the previous year due to the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. Historical data shows that most consumers spend their tax refunds. However projections for this quarter and the rest of the year are a real concern.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

China

China is important because it is the world’s second largest economy. China’s economy is weakening.

Retail sales for April were up 0.2% year-over-year vs. 2.0% consensus.
Industrial output was up 4.1% year-over-year vs. 5.9% consensus.

Japan

Japan is important because in the carry trade funds have borrowed hundreds of billions of dollars in Japan and invested in the U.S., primarily in the AI trade. Earlier today, the yield on 10 year Japanese Government Bonds rose to 2.8%, the highest level in 29 years.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin Depot (BTM) is the largest operator of bitcoin (BTC.USD) ATMs in North America. Bitcoin Depot has filed for bankruptcy blaming regulations.

Bitcoin is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates and bonds are range bound.

The dollar is weaker.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7417 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7500, 7700, and 7900 : support levels are 7200, 7000, and 6780.

DJIA futures are down 180 points.

Gold futures are at $4552, silver futures are at $76.85, and oil futures are at $101.34.

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

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