WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: WHAT PRUDENT INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW NOW

July 18, 2026

By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report.

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRUDENT INVESTORS OF CHINESE AI BREAKTHROUGH TRIGGERING SEMI SELLOFF

Jul 17, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

AI Breakthrouh

Please click here for a chart of leveraged semiconductor ETF (SOXL).

Note the following:

Semiconductors are the leading sector that has been driving the stock market higher. SOXL is the momo crowd’s favorite semiconductor ETF.
The chart shows SOXL has fallen below zone 2 (support).
The chart shows two opposing scenarios:
- There is no other support zone nearby. This indicates that if there is another piece of negative news, there is significant downside.
- RSI on the chart shows that SOXL is now oversold. As such, it can easily bounce.
Here is the key question: which one of the two scenarios will occur? The answer depends on the following factors:
- Many momo crowd accounts are receiving margin calls. Many accounts will not be able to meet the margin calls, which will bring in more selling.
- At some point, many momo crowd accounts will be liquidated, and others will have many positions liquidated. After liquidation is done, the selling will exhaust itself.
- Will smart money step in and buy?
- In The Arora Report analysis, these are precisely the type of conditions when even the slightest new news can have an outsized impact. A tiny bit of good news can cause semiconductor stocks to fly again. A tiny bit of bad news can deepen the selloff.
Selling in semiconductor stocks is causing a selloff in all tech stocks. Selling is spreading to non-tech stocks in the early trade.
As a member of The Arora Report, you have been ahead of the curve as the Arora Protection Band has been rising lately. Portfolios at the top band are protected up to 51%. The rise in the Arora Protection Band is in sharp contrast to Wall Street’s wisdom of buying more and more on margin at the recent top.
The trigger for the selloff is an AI breakthrough in China. A startup in China named Moonshot is touting an AI model that allegedly outperforms the top models from OpenAI and Anthropic. The model named Kimi K3 is free to download, is fully opensource, and has 2.8T parameters. As a reference, the estimate for Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.8 is 1.5T parameters.
As a member of The Arora Report, you have been ahead of the curve. We have been sharing with you that Chinese AI stocks are cheap compared to U.S. AI stocks. Only yesterday, we repeated:

In The Arora Report analysis, Chinese AI stocks are relatively inexpensive compared to U.S. AI stocks.

Prudent investors should note that Moonshot is valued at $31.5B compared to trillion dollar valuations for Anthropic and OpenAI in the U.S.
In 2022, The Arora Report was one of the first, if not the first, to issue a high conviction call that a fortune is to be made in AI all the way to 2030 but at times the path would be treacherous. What we are seeing right now is the treacherous part. In The Arora Report analysis, here are the key points for investors at this time:
- The U.S. still has a six to nine month lead over China.
- The top U.S. models such as GPT-5.6 and Fable 5 are still way more powerful than the top Chinese models.
- Due to the security requirements and deepening distrust between the U.S. and China, the world is likely to be divided into two camps for AI: one dominated by the U.S. and the other dominated by China.
- Investors should not ignore the latest accusation by President Trump that China massively interfered in the 2020 election.
- The volatility brings buying opportunities for those who have been following the Arora Protection Band.
SpaceX (SPCX) is being sold due to the scrubbing of a launch. The fickleness of Wall Street is illustrated by the fact that investors were buying SPCX stock on projections of five to ten years from now, and now they are selling because of the scrub of one launch. The scrubbing of launches is routine in the space business.
Netflix (NFLX) is seeing heavy selling as earnings released yesterday after the market close show slowing growth. Going into earnings, the momo crowd had been aggressively buying NFLX stock. The momo crowd also has large positions in NFLX. Selling in NFLX is adding to the troubles for the momo crowd.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Housing Starts

The data shows the housing market is staying strong but may weaken in the future. Here are the details:

Housing starts came at 1.427M vs. 1.328M consensus.
Building permits came at 1.367M vs. 1.403M consensus.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing selling along with tech stocks.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7504 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7700, 7900, and 8000 : support levels are 7318, 7194, and 7032.

DJIA futures are down 417 points.

Gold futures are at $3969, silver futures are at $55.29, and oil futures are at $80.35.

Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. The proprietary Arora Protection Band from The Arora Report is very popular. The Arora Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

KOREA DRIVES SEMI STOCKS LOWER IN SPITE OF GOOD TAIWAN SEMI EARNINGS, APPLE BOOSTS CHINA AI MODELS

Jul 16, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Korea Leading Semiconductors

Please click here for a chart of Taiwan Semiconductor stock (TSM).

Note the following:

The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of TSM stock is being used to illustrate the point.
Taiwan Semiconductor is important because it manufactures almost all high-performance AI chips.
The chart shows that even after good earnings, TSM stock has fallen in the early trade.
The chart shows the drop has caused TSM stock to be close to zone 2 (support).
In The Arora Report analysis, TSM move above zone 1 (resistance) will indicate another potential leg up in semiconductors.
TSM earnings were good. Here are the details:
- TSM reported Q2 earnings of $4.31 vs. $3.81 consensus.
- Revenues were reported as $40.2B vs. $39.83B consensus. That is a 33.7% year-over-year increase.
- TSM guided Q3 revenues of $44.6B – $45.8B vs. $43.67B consensus.
TSM is adding $100B to its investment in the U.S., bringing the total to $265B and 12 semiconductor and packaging facilities in the U.S.
In The Arora Report analysis, if the same TSM earnings were reported in May, TSM stock would have been up significantly, driving semiconductors as a group much higher. The character of the stock market has changed as semiconductors are now driven by South Korea. Overnight, the South Korean stock market was down 6.4%.
The Bank of Korea hiked its key interest rate by 25 bps to 2.75%. This is the first hike in over three years.
Yesterday, we shared with you good earnings from extreme ultraviolet lithography leader ASML (ASML). After early morning gains, ASML was not able to hold its gains due to anticipated selling in South Korea.
In the early trade, tech stocks are coming under considerable pressure, driven by the selloff in South Korea.
Of note is that in the early trade, SpaceX (SPCX) stock has fallen below its IPO price.
AI stocks in China are getting a boost from Apple’s (AAPL) decision to use Alibaba’s (BABA) Qwen large language model along with AI technology Baidu (BIDU). Both BIDU and BABA are in ETF KWEB. KWEB is in the ZYX Emerging Model Portfolio.
Chinese AI stocks are also getting a boost from anticipation of China’s AI Conference, which begins Friday and includes a keynote from President Xi. In The Arora Report analysis, Chinese AI stocks are relatively inexpensive compared to U.S. AI stocks.
Prudent investors closely watch retail sales data as the U.S. economy is 70% consumer based. Retail sales are weaker than expected as most U.S. consumers are strapped. Here is the latest retail sales data:
- June headline retail sales came at 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus.
- June retail sales ex-auto came at -0.2% vs. 0.1% consensus.
Initial jobless claims came at 208K vs. 219K consensus. This indicates the employment picture is stable.
The intensity of U.S. and Iran attacks is increasing. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has come to a crawl. President Trump is facing a difficult decision as it is becoming clear that the U.S. cannot win the war by air only. What President Trump decides may have a major impact on the markets. For the time being, the markets are ignoring the worsening Iran situation.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon (AMZN).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** stocks in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** oil in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7585 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7700, 7900, and 8000 : support levels are 7318, 7194, and 7032.

DJIA futures are up 8 points.

Gold futures are at $4008, silver futures are at $56.43, and oil futures are at $80.42.

57 ECONOMISTS WRONG ON INFLATION, ASML EARNINGS BRING OPTIMISM TO AI TRADE

Jul 15, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Cooler PPI

Please click here for a chart of ASML stock (ASML).

Note the following:

The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of ASML is being used to illustrate the point.
ASML is important because ASML is the undisputed leader in extreme ultraviolet lithography machines. Without ASML’s machines, none of the advanced AI chips could have been manufactured.
The chart shows ASML stock gapping up on earnings.
The chart shows that even after the earnings gap up, ASML is still below zone 1 (resistance).
The chart shows ASML is comfortably above zone 2 (support).
The ASML earnings report is outstanding. Here are the details:
- ASML reported Q2 EPS of EUR 7.58 vs. EUR 6.91 consensus.
- Revenue came at EUR 9.33B vs. EUR 10.23B consensus.
- ASML guides Q3 revenue of EUR 11.0 – 12.0B vs. EUR 10.43B consensus.
- ASML guides FY26 revenue of EUR 43B – 45B vs. EUR 39.82B consensus.
In The Arora Report analysis, ASML can be a tell for semiconductors and, in turn, the entire stock market if it breaks above zone 1 or below zone 2.
ASML earnings are bringing optimism and buying in the AI trade in the premarket.
Yesterday, we shared with you that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) came at -0.4% vs. -0.1% consensus. Prudent investors should note that not even one of the 57 economists who contributed to the consensus was even close to being correct. This underscores the importance of staying humble. Follow Arora’s Second Law of Investing and Trading, which states, “Nobody knows with certainty what is going to happen next in the markets.”
Producer Price Index (PPI) came cooler than expected. Here are the details:
- PPI came at -0.3% vs. 0.1% consensus.
- Core PPI came at 0.2% vs. 0.4% consensus.
Of note, prior PPI has been revised to 0.6% from 1.1%. 1.1% was a four year high.
Just like CPI, economists were wrong on PPI.
The Fed’s Beige Book will be released at 2pm ET.
The U.S. continues to attack Iran. Iran continues to retaliate. In The Arora Report analysis, Iran is taking advantage of President Trump’s constraints due to the upcoming midterm elections. Oil is not spiking as traders are believing in TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out).
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Alphabet (GOOG) and Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

Lower PPI is driving buying in gold.

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a draw of 0.056M barrels vs. a consensus of a draw of 2.7M barrels.

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is range bound.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7611 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7700, 7900, and 8000 : support levels are 7318, 7194, and 7032.

DJIA futures are up 126 points.

Gold futures are at $4071, silver futures are at $58.81, and oil futures are at $79.69.

BANK EARNINGS INDICATE STRONG ECONOMY, IBM DROPS DRAGGING SOFTWARE, WARSH SAYS NO TOLERANCE FOR INFLATION

Jul 14, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Cooler Inflation Data

Please click here for a chart of JPMorgan stock (JPM).

Note the following:

The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of JPM stock is being used to illustrate the point.
JPMorgan is important because it is the largest bank in the U.S. Overall, earnings from five banks this morning indicate a strong U.S. economy.
The chart shows JPM stock has fallen below the low band of zone 1 (resistance).
The chart shows that in the longer term, after a meteoric rise, JPM stock has been range bound between zone 2 (support) and zone 1(resistance).
In The Arora Report analysis, the stock market’s reaction to JPMorgan earnings is particularly insightful. JPMorgan reported blowout earnings significantly better than the consensus and whisper numbers, and yet, the stock has dropped in the early trade. Normally stocks go up when they report better than whisper numbers. The reason for the drop is JPM stock is very expensive and projections are lower than expectations. Here are the details.
- JPMorgan reported Q2 adjusted EPS of $6.14 vs. $5.80 consensus.
- JPMorgan reported revenue of $57.3B vs. $51.3B consensus.
- Excluding markets, JPMorgan expects FY26 net interest income of about $96.5B vs. prior view of $103B.
JPMorgan is in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio long from an average of $34.14. It is trading at $325.00 as of this writing in the premarket, representing a gain of 852%.
Bank of America (BAC) also reported strong earnings, but BAC stock is trading lower. Here are the details:
- Bank of America reported Q2 EPS $1.21 vs. $1.12 consensus.
- Bank of America reported revenue of $31.56B vs. $30.77B consensus.
BAC is in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio long from an average of $7.69. It is trading at $58.59 as of this writing in the premarket, representing a gain of 662%.
Citigroup (C) also reported strong earnings, but C stock is trading lower. Here are the details:
- Citigroup reported Q2 EPS of $3.15 vs. $2.71 consensus.
- Citigroup reported revenue of $24.8B vs. $23.73B consensus.
C is in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio long from an average of $33.80. It is trading at $139.37 as of this writing in the premarket, representing a gain of 312%.
Goldman Sachs (GS) and Wells Fargo (WFC) also reported better than consensus earnings.
In The Arora Report analysis, strong earnings from large banks is positive for the entire stock market.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) came cooler than expected. Here are the details:
- Headline CPI came at -0.4% vs. -0.1% consensus.
- Core CPI came at 0.0% vs. 0.2% consensus.
In The Arora Report analysis, after the cooler CPI data, there is over 80% probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged.
In The Arora Report analysis, falling oil prices has helped inflation cool down. However, investors need to look ahead. Oil prices are rising again as the U.S. and Iran resume low level warfare. The Strait of Hormuz is practically closed even though the U.S. says it is open.
Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET.
International Business Machines (IBM) fell as much as 25% in the early trade before starting to recover. So far, today is the worst day for IBM stock since 1987. IBM’s short fall is due to customers shifting their budgets towards server and memory products delaying major deals for IBM. The drop in IBM stock is dragging down software stocks such as Microsoft (MSFT), Oracle (ORCL), Salesforce (CRM), and ServiceNow (NOW). Software ETF (IGV) is down about 4%.
Fed Chair Warsh will say in front of Congress that the Fed has no tolerance for elevated inflation.
After the success of memory maker SK Hynix (SKHY), Samsung (SSNLF) is now contemplating a U.S. listing.
In the early trade, there is very aggressive buying in semiconductor stocks following the recovery of stocks in South Korea.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon (AMZN).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), and Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is being bought after lower CPI data.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7587 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7700, 7900, and 8000 : support levels are 7318, 7194, and 7032.

DJIA futures are down 114 points.

Gold futures are at $4090, silver futures are at $59.22, and oil futures are at $80.70.

CRITICAL FOUR HOURS AHEAD, KOREA AND IRAN DRIVE SELLING IN U.S. STOCKS

Jul 13, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Important Data Ahead

Please click here for a chart of leveraged semiconductor ETF (SOXL).

Note the following:

Semiconductors are the leading sector that has been driving the stock market higher. SOXL is the momo crowd’s favorite semiconductor ETF.
The chart shows that on Friday, SOXL managed to rally and close at the top band of zone 2 (support).
The chart shows that in the early trade today, SOXL has fallen back into the middle of zone 2. The move was driven by price action in the South Korean stock market.
As we have been sharing with you, lately the South Korean stock market has been leading the U.S. stock market. This is a reversal from the historical pattern of the South Korean stock market following the U.S. stock market. The reason for the South Korean stock market leading is that two of the largest memory manufacturers SK Hynix (SKHY) and Samsung (SSNLF) are in South Korea.
Overnight, the South Korean Kospi Index fell 9%. SK Hynix fell more than 15%. This is the largest one day loss since SK Hynix listed on the South Korean exchange in 1996. Samsung fell more than 10%.
In The Arora Report analysis, the trigger for selling in the South Korean market is that investors were buying ahead of SK Hynix listing in the U.S. SKHY started trading in the U.S. on Friday. The selloff is the classic sell the news reaction. In the early trade, the carry over from South Korea is hitting stocks of Micron (MU), Sandisk (SNDK), Western Digital (WDC), Seagate Technology (STX), and memory ETF (DRAM) especially hard.
On the positive side, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) reported June revenue rose 68% year-over-year. However, revenue rose only 6.2% sequentially. TSM is important because TSM manufactures advanced chips for the likes of Nvidia (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).
Over the weekend, the U.S. hit Iran very hard for firing on a ship in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran retaliated by firing on U.S. bases in the region. This morning, there is significant confusion regarding the status of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed. The U.S. is saying the Strait of Hormuz is open. From our sources, there is hardly any traffic in the Strait of Hormuz as of this writing.
In The Arora Report analysis, oil is rising a relatively small amount compared to what the weekend events warrant. The reason is there is a long history of the U.S. administration coming out with positive statements regarding Iran every time oil starts going higher or the stock market starts going lower. Professional traders are expecting a positive statement from the administration, and this hope is containing the stock market’s drop and oil’s rise.
Tomorrow, four critical hours are ahead. During a span of four hours, the stock market will have to confront the following:
- The first important set of earnings from banks, including Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), Goldman Sachs (GS), JPMorgan (JPM), and Wells Fargo (WFC), will be tomorrow before the regular session open. Whisper numbers for bank earnings are running ahead of consensus numbers.
- Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET and may be market moving.
- Fed Chair Warsh is scheduled to testify before the House Financial Services Committee tomorrow at 10am ET and before the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee on Wednesday at 10am ET.
In The Arora Report analysis, as earnings season starts, the key question for investors is whether the growth in earnings is secular or cyclical. For those who want next level information, an important podcast titled “The Most Important Earnings Question And The Two Biggest Mistakes Investors Are Making” will be available shortly in Arora Ambassador Club. Here are the reference points:
- S&P 500 earnings were about $244 per share in 2024.
- S&P 500 earnings rose to $275 – $276 in 2025.
- The current bottom-up consensus is approximately $336 for 2026.
- The current bottom-up consensus is approximately $387 for 2027.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and negative in Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates and bonds are range bound.

The dollar is range bound.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7595 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7700, 7900, and 8000 : support levels are 7318, 7194, and 7032.

DJIA futures are down 39 points.

Gold futures are at $4073, silver futures are at $58.91, and oil futures are at $73.92.

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.

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