WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: WHAT PRUDENT INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW NOW

October 17, 2026

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report.

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

SEMIS AND BONDS AT INFLECTION POINTS; BONDS BECOME CORRELATED WITH AI TRADE; MUSK SHOWS FLYING ROADSTER

Oct 16, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Inflection Points

Please click here for a chart of leveraged semiconductor ETF (SOXL).

Note the following:

Semiconductors reflect the AI trade, and SOXL is the momo crowd’s favorite.
The chart shows that yesterday SOXL approached the low band of zone 3 (support) but did not touch it.
The chart shows that yesterday SOXL rallied from the lows and closed near the day’s high.
The chart shows that SOXL volume was heavy yesterday.
The chart shows the nine day RSI reached 0.0, the most extreme oversold level RSI can be. The chart shows that during the period shown on the chart, RSI has never been this low.
The chart shows the breakout in the October 2 – 6 period that carried SOXL to zone 2 (resistance) failed.
Historically, the sum total of the foregoing pattern leads to an inflection point with a short term rally.
Bonds hit a low after release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on October 14. Since then, bonds have been rallying as money flew out of AI stocks and into bonds.
In The Arora Report analysis, just like semiconductors, based on historical patterns, bonds are also at an inflection point and can continue to rally.
Prudent investors need to keep three important points front and center:
- It is good to know history as history often rhymes, but it does not always repeat itself.
- Technical patterns can be helpful in the very short term, but the longer term moves come from the macro.
- A large number of analysts choose to use only one form of analysis: macro analysis, fundamental analysis, technical analysis, or quantitative analysis. Analysis of some of the smartest analysts who follow only one form of analysis is often spot on when market conditions favor their approach but often totally wrong when market conditions do not favor their approach.
The Arora Report is unique in that The Arora Report system combines the best elements of macro analysis, fundamental analysis, technical analysis, and quantitative analysis with proprietary overlays of the ZYX Asset Allocation Model, ZYX Change Method, and Arora Protection Band.
Here is an important observation from The Arora Report analysis that can help investors going forward. A strong correlation has developed between the AI trade and yields. The reason is the economy is being driven by the AI trade, and the AI trade is behind a big part of inflation. Anytime the AI trade starts faltering like it did starting Wednesday, money starts flowing into bonds and yields fall as happened Wednesday and Thursday. This is especially noteworthy because the Producer Price Index (PPI) yesterday was hot. Traditionally, a hotter PPI would have caused yields to spike higher, but instead, yields fell because of all of the money flow into bonds and out of the AI trade.
Yesterday, we shared with you the fear in neocloud CoreWeave (CRWV) bonds with the yield reaching 15%. Prudent investors should note that the CoreWeave founders have been protecting themselves by selling $3.3B of CRWV stock since the IPO. This is a reminder that smart money always protects itself. In contrast, the momo crowd does not take risk into account and goes all in. You are smart money. The best way for most investors to protect themselves and participate in the upside at the same time is to follow the Arora Protection Band.
The foregoing is very important, especially at this time, since at this time 191 of S&P 500 stocks are in a bear market.
Adding to the positive sentiment is a speech from Fed Chair Warsh. Warsh has consistently telegraphed that he does not want to give forward guidance. In his speech, Warsh stuck to his guns and said nothing about changing interest rates in the upcoming Fed meeting. Wall Street is taking Warsh’s silence as an indicator that the Fed will not raise interest rates in October.
You have been ahead of the curve with The Arora Report analysis on interest rates as we have been sharing with you for a while that the Fed was unlikely to raise interest rates in October.
Oil is pulling back on Iran’s President Pezeshkian saying Iran is not seeking a nuclear weapon and is open to dialog.
Adding to the excitement this morning is Elon Musk showing off a levitating car. Tesla (TSLA) is using cold-gas thrusters from SpaceX (SPCX) to achieve performance. Tesla showed the car leaping over other cars and flipping in midair. In The Arora Report analysis, do not expect production of levitating cars from Tesla anytime soon. Other than getting people excited, there is no commercial value at this time.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Eurozone

Eurozone September CPI came at 0.6% vs. 0.6% consensus. In The Arora Report analysis, it is an open question what the European Central Bank (ECB) will do at its next meeting.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), and Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and mixed in Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7807 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7831, 7900, and 8000 : support levels are 7795, 7733, and 7626.

DJIA futures are up 57 points.

Gold futures are at $4189, silver futures are at $57.71, and oil futures are at $95.87.

Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. The proprietary Arora Protection Band from The Arora Report is very popular. The Arora Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

TSMC RECORD EARNINGS FAIL TO LIFT STOCK – AI MARKET CHARACTER SHIFT CONTINUES; PPI SPIKES

Oct 15, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

PPI Spikes

Please click here for a chart of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company stock (TSM).

Note the following:

The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of TSM stock is being used to illustrate the point. TSM manufactures cutting edge AI chips for the likes of Nvidia (NVDA) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).
The chart shows TSM stock is falling after reporting record earnings.
The chart shows TSM stock has fallen well below the low band of zone 1 (resistance).
The chart shows TSM stock is well above the high band of zone 2 (support).
RSI on the chart shows TSM is now oversold.
The fact that TSM is falling after reporting record earnings is another data point showing The Arora Report’s call that in this phase of AI the character of the stock market is changing has proven spot on.
Here are the details of TSM earnings:
- For Q3, earnings came at $4.60 vs. $4.46 consensus.
- For Q3, revenues came at $46.72B vs. $45.67B consensus. This is a 41.1% year-over-year rise.
- For Q4, TSM is guiding revenue of $52.3B – $54.3B vs. $50.22B consensus.
Anthropic is one of a handful of top companies that are driving AI. Anthropic made financial disclosures yesterday at its investor day ahead of its planned IPO. Here are the key points:
- Q3 revenue was $16.8B, up from $11.6B in the Q2 and $4.7B in Q1.
- Q3 revenue translates to an annualized $67.2B based on average quarterly revenue.
- Anthropic reported positive free cash flow, an adjusted gross margin of 85%, and an adjusted operating margin exceeding 11%.
- Anthropic is targeting an IPO valuation exceeding $2T.
Here is The Arora Report analysis of Anthropic’s financial disclosures:
- Revenue growth slowed sharply to 45% in the Q3 from approximately 147% in the Q2. The important point is not that Anthropic’s revenue growth is weak. Growing revenue 45% in a quarter is extraordinary, especially at this scale. The issue is that growth is slowing at a time when investor expectations are extremely high.
- Earlier expectations were for Anthropic to exceed a $100B annualized revenue run rate by year end, with some investors projecting $120B. The latest disclosures have raised questions about those expectations, though some analysts still project a year end run rate of over $100B.
- To reach a $100B annualized run rate by December, Anthropic would need monthly revenue of approximately $8.3B, compared with average monthly revenue of $5.6B in Q3.
- The bigger issue for the stock market is the disconnect between AI growth and the expectations already built into stock prices. AI demand remains strong, but slowing growth at major AI model developers raises questions about the returns on the massive investments being made by hyperscalers and AI infrastructure companies.
The stock of neocloud company CoreWeave (CRWV) has seen panic selling. The reason is CoreWeave is heavily indebted. The yield on CoreWeave’s 9.652% debt maturing in 2032 rose to 15% in panic selling. CRWV dragged down the stocks of Oracle (ORCL), Nebius (NBIS), and IREN (IREN).
As a member of The Arora Report, you have been ahead of the curve for months. We have been sharing with you that the character of the AI driven stock market is changing. Now, Wall Street is catching up. As an actionable item, The Arora Report members have already been positioned correctly with the Arora Protection Band as the combination of adaptive ZYX Asset Allocation Model with inputs in ten categories and the ZYX Change Method correctly anticipated well in advance what is happening now.
It is increasingly important for investors to build their knowledge of this new phase of AI and how it is different from the prior phase. Risks are rising, but there are also great opportunities ahead, especially in physical AI. The best way to increase your knowledge is to listen to the podcast series titled “The Next Phase Of AI” in Arora Ambassador Club. To get on the waitlist to join Arora Ambassador Club, please fill out the form below.
Ukraine has resumed strikes on Russian refineries even though President Trump declared an energy ceasefire. Prudent investors should carefully watch the consequences of Ukrainian President Zelensky defying President Trump. President Trump is wanting to import diesel from Russia to reduce the price of diesel ahead of the midterm elections. Ukraine bombing Russian refineries brings into question Russia’s ability to provide the diesel President Trump wants.
Producer Price Index (PPI) came hotter than expected. Here are the details:
- Headline PPI came at 1.3% vs. 0.5% consensus.
- Core PPI came at 0.7% vs. 03% consensus.
Prudent investors closely watch retail sales data as the U.S. economy is 70% consumer based. Retail sales are hotter than expected. Here is the latest retail sales data:
- September headline retail sales came at 0.8% vs. 0.3% consensus.
- September retail sales ex-auto came at 0.9% vs. 0.3% consensus.
Initial jobless claims came at 199K vs. 200K consensus.
Normally, the foregoing economic data would have caused yields to rise and bonds to fall. However, today yields are falling and bonds are rising. In The Arora Report analysis, the reason for this behavior is that money is flowing out of AI stocks and into bonds.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a draw of 11.12M barrels vs. a consensus of a build of 1.9M barrels. This is bullish data for oil.

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing selling.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7747 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7795, 7831, and 7900 : support levels are 7733, 7626, and 7541.

DJIA futures are up 194 points.

Gold futures are at $4167, silver futures are at $56.73, and oil futures are at $95.60.

AI CHIPMAKING EQUIPMENT DEMAND TO EXCEED SUPPLY THROUGH 2028 – MARKET SIGNALS A SHIFT; CPI SQUASHES HOPIUM

Oct 14, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Market Character Shift

Please click here for a chart of ASML stock (ASML).

Note the following:

The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of ASML stock is being used to illustrate the point. Without ASML, the present AI revolution may not have come to pass.
Dutch company ASML holds a monopoly in extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, which are critical for manufacturing the world's most advanced semiconductors, including AI chips. These highly sophisticated machines cost approximately $200 million each, while the latest generation can cost as much as $400 million. ASML's monopoly makes it one of the most important companies in the global semiconductor supply chain.
The chart shows that after earnings ASML stock is trading in a wide range around the top band of zone 2 (support).
RSI on the chart shows ASML stock is oversold.
In The Arora Report analysis, the key observation for prudent investors from the chart is that in spite of great earnings, very bullish commentary, and an oversold condition, ASML stock is not rallying.
Here are the key points from the bullish commentary:
- ASML does not expect the planned supply to meet customer demand in both 2027 and 2028. Some customers are wanting to place orders for 2029 and 2030.
- ASML is in a position to raise prices.
ASML earnings are excellent. Here are the details:
- Q3 earnings came at euro 12.95 vs. euro 10.78 consensus.
- Q3 revenues came at euro 11.66B vs. euro 11.62B consensus. This is a 55.2% year-over-year increase.
- For Q4, ASML is guiding euro 14.2B - 15.2B vs. euro 14.02B consensus.
In The Arora Report analysis, the stock market’s reaction to ASML earnings shows that in this phase of AI, the stock market character is changing. In spite of great earnings from ASML, semiconductors are seeing selling pressure this morning.
Further in The Arora Report analysis, prudent investors should note that the demand for ASML equipment is coming from semiconductor companies. The concern among smart money is not the demand from semiconductor companies. Smart money’s concern is demand from customers of hyperscalers and datacenter companies.
All of the foregoing is another data point showing the character of the stock market in this next phase of AI is shifting. All investors should consider developing deeper knowledge of the shift. The best way to develop this knowledge is to listen to the podcast series “The Next Phase Of AI” in Arora Ambassador Club. To get on the waitlist to join Arora Ambassador Club, please fill out the form below.
Anthropic’s Investor Day is ahead. The data from Anthropic’s Investor Day may be market moving.
The momo crowd was aggressively buying stocks ahead of the release of CPI data. The momo crowd almost always buys on hopium ahead of key events because the momo crowd focuses on potential rewards and does not take risk into account. In contrast, smart money tends to trim ahead of key events to reduce risk.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) squashed the momo crowd’s hopium. In the early trade, significant selling is coming into the market, especially in AI stocks, after the release of CPI data. CPI came hotter than expected. Here are the details:
- Headline CPI came at 0.6% vs. 0.6% consensus.
- Core CPI came at 0.3% vs. 0.2% consensus.
The Fed’s Beige Book will be released at 2pm ET and may be market moving.
Producer Price Index (PPI), retail sales, and initial jobless claims will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon (AMZN).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

Gold is being sold on hotter CPI.

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

Oil continues to rise as Houthi’s continue to attack Saudi Arabia.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is being sold on hotter CPI.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7822 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7831, 7900, and 8000 : support levels are 7795, 7733, and 7626.

DJIA futures are down 155 points.

Gold futures are at $4112, silver futures are at $57.07, and oil futures are at $95.56.

KOREA WAKES WALL STREET TO CHINA MEMORY THREAT; BROADCOM CEO EQUATES MOMO CROWD TO GAMBLERS; JPM WHIPSAWS

Oct 13, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Investors Get Jittery

Please click here for a chart of JPMorgan Chase stock (JPM).

Note the following:

The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of JPM stock is being used to illustrate the point. JPM is the largest U.S. bank.
The chart shows the momo crowd was buying JPM stock on hopium ahead of earnings.
The chart shows when JPM reported earnings.
The chart shows the big drop in JPM stock on the earnings report. Whisper numbers were running ahead of consensus numbers. The drop in JPM stock was due to JPM missing earnings. Here are the details:
- JPM reported Q3 adjusted EPS of $5.75 vs. $5.94 consensus.
- JPM reported revenues of $50.17B vs. $51.22B consensus.
The chart shows a reversal in JPM stock. The reversal was due to investors focusing on net interest income (NII) guidance. Here are the details:
- JPM sees Q4 NII of $28.0B vs. $27.42B consensus.
- For FY27, JPM sees NII of $107B, approximately 10% growth, vs. 2026.
The VUD indicator is the most sensitive measure of net supply and demand in real time. The orange represents net supply and the green represents net demand.
VUD indicator on the chart is orange, indicating net supply of JPM stock.
The first big drop in JPM and then the recovery illustrates how jittery investors are.
As a full disclosure, JPM is in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio. It is long from an average of $34.14. JPM is trading at $338.57 as of this writing in the premarket, representing a 892% gain.
As a member of The Arora Report, you have been ahead of the curve on future competition from China in semiconductor memory. We have been writing about it for months. Yesterday morning we highlighted the new progress by a Chinese memory manufacturer to make denser memory with a new technology. In the U.S., smart money trimmed Micron stock (MU) on the development, but the momo crowd, oblivious to the news, bought MU stock.
At a time when the momo crowd in the U.S. has been oblivious, investors in South Korea were paying attention to the development in China. Kospi index fell intraday as much as 7.4% and closed down 5.46%. Two big memory manufacturers in South Korea are Samsung (SSNLF) and SK Hynix (SKHY). Samsung stock in South Korea fell 7.4%, and SK Hynix stock fell 10.1%.
Prudent investors should pay close attention to what Broadcom (AVGO) CEO Hock Tan said at a conference in Singapore. Here are the details:
- Tan warned that many AI investors (the momo crowd) “have no clue what they are investing in” and have “very extreme expectations.” Tan compared their behavior to gambling in a casino.
- Tan also questioned the return on investment from corporate AI spending, pointing out that many companies are experimenting with AI without generating meaningful productivity gains.
- He acknowledged that OpenAI and Anthropic are generating substantial revenues but cautioned that heavy spending on training makes their long term profitability uncertain.
- Tan sees capital, rather than chips or memory, becoming the biggest constraint on AI growth.
In The Arora Report analysis, coming from the CEO of one of the biggest beneficiaries of the AI boom, these comments deserve attention.
At this time, when investors are growing jittery, reacting emotionally, and getting whipsawed, as a member of The Arora Report you have a great tool to stay disciplined in the Arora Protection Band.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET, followed by Producer Price Index (PPI) Thursday at 8:30am ET.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon (AMZN).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and negative in Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7850 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7900 and 8000 : support levels are 7831, 7795, and 7733.

DJIA futures are up 455 points.

Gold futures are at $4201, silver futures are at $60.20, and oil futures are at $93.10.

HOUTHIS' DEADLY ATTACK ON SAUDI ARABIA ECLIPSES TRUMP’S RUSSIAN DIESEL DEAL; CHINA’S 4F² THREAT TO MICRON

Oct 12, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Advance In Memory Chips

Please click here for a chart of oil ETF (USO).

Note the following:

The chart shows oil ETF USO moving up on two crosscurrents. President Trump’s Russia diesel deal is negative for oil, but the Houthi attack on Saudi Arabia is positive for oil.
The chart shows oil ETF USO has moved into zone 1 (resistance).
RSI on the chart shows USO has room to run in either direction.
President Trump has announced a landmark diesel deal with Russia aimed at bringing down energy prices. Under the deal, Russia will immediately supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel to the U.S. and global markets, followed by another 500,000 tons in November and another 1 million tons thereafter.
In The Arora Report analysis, these diesel quantities are relatively small compared to global diesel consumption and are unlikely to make a significant difference in prices on their own.
Ukraine has been targeting Russian oil refineries. This has disrupted Russian fuel production, putting additional pressure on diesel supplies. To change the landscape, President Trump has also announced an energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, under which both countries would stop attacking each other's energy infrastructure. However, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy said he was surprised by the announcement, and Ukraine was willing to comply if Russia did the same. Ukraine is already accusing Russia of violating the ceasefire by attacking its power plants, including one in Kharkiv.
To allow the deal, the Trump administration has temporarily eased U.S. sanctions on Russian diesel. In The Arora Report analysis, reversing part of the pressure Washington has been putting on Russia over the Ukraine war could provide Russia with additional revenue to finance the war. For investors, the important point is that the additional diesel supply could help at the margin, but meaningful relief in energy prices will depend much more on whether attacks on energy infrastructure stop and whether the broader geopolitical risks ease.
Iran backed Houthi rebels in Yemen launched missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia, including a devastating strike on Riyadh’s international airport that killed at least 13 people and injured more than 300. On an ongoing basis, we have been sharing with you how the conflict in Yemen spills over to Saudi Arabia.
In The Arora Report analysis, the risk to oil supplies is significant. Saudi Arabia is the world's largest oil exporter, and the Houthis have demonstrated their ability to strike targets deep inside the country, including oil infrastructure. Houthis have also threatened shipping through the strategically important Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a major route for oil shipments. A successful attack on Saudi oil production or export facilities could disrupt millions of barrels of daily supply. The danger of a wider war disrupting Saudi oil supplies could easily outweigh the benefit of additional Russian diesel.
The semiconductor industry has been working on a new memory technology called 4F², which allows more memory to be packed into the same space on a chip. Today's mainstream DRAM technology uses a 6F² design. Moving from 6F² to 4F² reduces the area required for each memory cell by one third, potentially increasing memory density by as much as 50% and reducing manufacturing costs.
China's ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) says it has made significant progress with 4F² technology and plans to introduce a product before year end. The three largest manufacturers Samsung (SSNLF), SK Hynix (SKHY), and Micron (MU) are also working on 4F². In The Arora Report analysis, the concern for Micron investors is that China’s ChangXin could become a more formidable competitor, leading to increased memory supply and pressure on prices and profit margins. However, the big question is whether ChangXin can manufacture the 4F² chips in large volumes with acceptable yields, reliability and competitive costs. As full disclosure, MU is in ZYX Buy and long from an average of $21.77. MU is trading at $1005.00 as of this writing in the premarket, representing a gain of 4516%.
Tomorrow morning will bring earnings from major banks JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), Goldman Sachs (GS), and Wells Fargo (WFC). As full disclosure, JPM Is in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio. It is long from an average of $34.14. JPM is trading at $334.28 as of this writing in the premarket, representing a gain of 879%. C is also in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio with great gains.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released on Wednesday at 8:30am ET, and Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released on Thursday at 8:30am ET.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

The bond market is closed for the holiday.

The dollar is stronger.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7865 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7900 and 8000 : support levels are 7831, 7795, and 7733.

DJIA futures are down 3 points.

Gold futures are at $4196, silver futures are at $60.89, and oil futures are at $93.47.

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.

AMD, ASML, AVGO, BTCUSD, C, CRWV, CXMT, DIA, DJIA, GDX, GLD, GOLD, GS, IREN, JPM, MARKETS, MU, NBIS, NVDA, OIL, ORCL, QQQ, SILVER, SKHY, SLV, SOXL, SPCX, SPX, SPY, SSNLF, TBF, TBT, TSLA, TSM, USO, WFC

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