WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: WHAT PRUDENT INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW NOW

October 25, 2026

By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report.

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

60% OF STOCK MARKET AI TRADE CAPITULATION CRITERIA MET – SLOWLY START DEPLOYING CASH

Oct 23, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Deploy Cash

High momentum AI stocks have dipped 30% – 60%. Please see yesterday’s Morning Capsule. You may recall that previously when Wall Street was uber bullish on these high momentum AI stocks, The Arora Report call was to expect a 30% – 50% drop. That call has been spot on. Now is the time to start slowly deploying cash in the AI trade. The tentative plan is to also take profits on hedges or reduce hedges in due course as new data comes in. Please see the Arora Protection Band for the immediate change. The tentative plan is to continue reducing cash, assuming the new data is supportive.

Having said the foregoing, the markets are extremely volatile and the risks that were outlined in yesterday’s Morning Capsule have not gone away. As a result, investors should also be prepared for about a 30% probability at this time that the plan to deploy cash and reduce hedges may need to be reversed. Start with Arora’s Second Law of Investing and Trading, which states, “Nobody knows with certainty what is going to happen next in the markets,” and follow with Arora’s Third Law, which states, “Making investing and trading decisions based on probabilities is the only realistic and profitable approach.”

60% Of Capitulation Criteria Met

Please click here for a chart of leveraged semiconductor ETF (SOXL).

Note the following:

Semiconductors reflect the AI trade, and SOXL is the momo crowd’s favorite.
The chart shows SOXL has fallen below the low band of zone 3 (support). On the surface, the break below support is a negative. However, in The Arora Report method, investors need to look at the breakdown in conjunction with RSI and the volume.
The chart shows divergence in RSI since RSI hit the absolute low of 0.0. In plain English this means that RSI has gone higher as the price of SOXL has gone lower. This is a positive.
The chart shows heavy volume yesterday when SOXL fell below the low band of zone 3. The heavy volume indicates conviction in selling. On the surface, this seems negative. However, in The Arora Report method, investors also need to look at it in the context of margin calls that were hitting momo crowd accounts yesterday and heavy short selling that our algorithms picked up. The correct interpretation in the proper context is that immediate selling due to forced liquidations in momo crowd accounts may not be as intense today as it was yesterday. Short selling again may not be as intense as it was yesterday. The net result is that heavy volume in this context is positive, not negative as it seems on the surface.
In The Arora Report analysis, heavy short selling yesterday increases the probability of a short squeeze that can lead the stock market higher. Here is the highest probability scenario sequence:
- Short sellers will likely first push the pedal hard to drive the market lower.
- If the market starts going higher, short sellers are likely to panic and buy to cover.
- Once short sellers begin to cover, it will drive the market even higher. Those who follow traditional technical analysis see the momentum and jump in, driving the market even higher.
The foregoing scenario may play out over a few days. Today is a Friday. Historically, short squeezes start on Fridays.
There is no guarantee that the above scenario will play out. The point is the above scenario is the highest probability scenario at this time.
In The Arora Report analysis, about 60% of the criteria for capitulation in high momentum AI stocks have been met. Investors who understand the secrets of capitulation gain a big edge. For those who want to gain the big edge, the podcast titled “THE TEN SECRETS OF EPIC CAPITULATION RICHES” is available in Arora Ambassador Club.
It is worth a reminder that you do not get to invest and trade in the market you wish you had; you get to invest and trade in the market you are given. Certainly, it would be easier if 80% – 90% of capitulation criteria was met so that a signal to back up the truck and buy stocks, like The Arora Report did on March 9, 2009 after the Arora Protection Band was at 100% during the entire 2008 crash. With the benefit of hindsight, March 9, 2009 was the start of a long bull market.
In The Arora Report analysis, the best practical way to handle the market as it is now is to slowly deploy cash in the AI trade.
The risks outlined in yesterday’s Morning Capsule regarding Iran, the midterm elections, and President Putin’s success should not be underestimated. Having said that, as a member of The Arora Report, you are ahead of the curve.
- The headline of today’s Wall Street Journal reads “Iran Threatens Wider Strikes on Economic and Civilian Targets if U.S. Attacks.“
- One day before the Wall Street Journal headline, The Arora Report Morning Capsule published before the market open had “Iran doctrine shift” in the headline. We wrote:

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) spokesman Hossein Mohebi is saying that IRGC is shifting to an “offensive and asymmetrical” defense doctrine. In plain English this means that Iran will proactively attack U.S. bases, other countries, and oil tankers in its defense.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), and Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** stocks in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7666 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7733, 7795, and 7831 : support levels are 7626, 7541, and 7318.

DJIA futures are down 452 points.

Gold futures are at $4041, silver futures are at $53.88, and oil futures are at $101.27.

Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. The proprietary Arora Protection Band from The Arora Report is very popular. The Arora Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

IRAN DOCTRINE SHIFT AND THE U.S. PLAN TO STRIKE IRAN OVERSHADOW GOOD EARNINGS FROM META AND TESLA

Oct 22, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Crosscurrents In The Market

Please click here for a chart of oil ETF (USO).

Note the following:

The chart shows that oil ETF USO is rising today.
The chart shows that oil ETF USO is threatening to break above zone 1 (resistance).
The chart shows oil ETF USO is now higher than it was at the time of peak Iran fear in May. Prudent investors should note a divergence in that the Iran fear is only a small fraction of what it was back in May, but oil ETF USO is now higher than it was in May.
There are three reasons for the move up in oil this morning:
- Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) spokesman Hossein Mohebi is saying that IRGC is shifting to an “offensive and asymmetrical” defense doctrine. In plain English this means that Iran will proactively attack U.S. bases, other countries, and oil tankers in its defense.
- IRGC has attacked four ships engaged in oil transfer in the Gulf. Three other ships caught fire when they hit mines.
- There are reports that the U.S. and Israel are ready with plans to strike Iran after the midterm elections.
Concern is also mounting that the U.S. is in the process of giving Russia what Russia wants without any concessions from Russia on Ukraine.
- Hours after a three hour meeting with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff in which President Putin apparently showed willingness to resume peace talks, Russia launched a massive missile attack on Ukraine’s capital Kyiv.
Concern is also mounting of a potential Democratic sweep in the midterm election.
Two of the Mag7, Meta (META) and Tesla (TSLA) reported excellent earnings. Wall Street positioning was for the market, especially the AI trade, to go up on good earnings from Meta and Tesla. Instead, in the premarket, there is aggressive selling in AI stocks. SMH is down 3.22% and QQQ is down 1.54% as of this writing in the premarket.
Momo gurus are out in full force repeating the tired narrative that oil has nothing to do with the AI trade. Momo gurus are urging their followers to aggressively buy the weakness in the AI trade. As the day progresses, prudent investors should watch which one of the two scenarios materializes – momo gurus succeeding or momo accounts being hit with margin calls.
In the early trade, money is flowing out of the AI trade into the safety of U.S. Treasuries and the Japanese yields.
Prudent investors should also note what appears to be an anomaly on the surface – money is flowing out of gold and silver this morning. Normally when fear rises, money flows into gold and silver. In The Arora Report analysis, the reason for money flowing out of gold and silver is that smart money is getting ahead of the momo crowd being forced to sell gold and silver if they receive margin calls. Of note, the momo crowd was an extremely aggressive buyer of gold over $5000 and silver over $100. As a reference, gold is trading at $4097 and silver is trading at $55.93 as of this writing.
From the time everyone was super bullish on AI stocks, The Arora Report call has been that several AI stocks would experience 30% – 50% drops.
- Many of the stocks that ran up on the AI mania have experienced significant drops. As examples, CoreWeave (CRWV) is down 67.6%, Applied Optomelectronics (AAOI) is down 67.2%, Cerebras (CBRS) is down 63.2%, nLIGHT (LASR) is down 56.3%, and Innodata (INOD) is down 50.2% as of this writing in the premarket.
- A popular theme has been to aggressively buy memory and disk drive stocks. Western Digital (WDC) is down 49.3%, Sandisk (SNDK) is down 41.0%, Seagate (STX) is down 36.3%, SK Hynix (SKHY) is down 31.0%, and Micron (MU) is down 27.0% as of this writing in the premarket.
Initial jobless claims came at 194K vs. 200K consensus. This indicates the jobs picture is staying strong, at least for the time being.
Leading Economic Index will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** gold in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** oil in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing selling.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is range bound.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7727 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7733, 7795, and 7831 : support levels are 7626, 7541, and 7318.

DJIA futures are down 291 points.

Gold futures are at $4097, silver futures are at $55.93, and oil futures are at $99.40.

SPACEX AI SHOCKER – 6 MONTH PAYBACK, 13 GIGAWATTS, AND THE HIDDEN RISK FOR INVESTORS; SUPER MICRO SURPRISE

Oct 21, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

AI Trade Character Is Changing

Please click here for a chart of SpaceX stock (SPCX).

Note the following:

The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of SPCX stock is being used to illustrate the point.
The chart shows a gap up on earnings.
RSI on the chart shows SPCX stock has room to run.
The chart shows that The Arora Report gave a signal to take partial profits on SPCX as high as $193.60 after SPCX was bought at $135 in the IPO.
The chart shows that SPCX subsequently dipped into the updated Arora buy zone. The SPCX position is long from an average of $116.63 and is nicely profitable.
SpaceX earnings were above consensus but inline with whisper numbers. Here are the key points:
- Revenue jumped 161% to $14.6B. Revenue from the Super Intelligence division surged nearly 830%.
- SpaceX plans to spend $35B – $40B on infrastructure in Q4 alone.
The conference call was very bullish and caused SPCX stock to spike.
In The Arora Report analysis, two extraordinary numbers stand out from the conference call:
- SpaceX CEO Elon Musk said AI computing investments are currently paying back in less than a year, with the possibility of a six month payback next year. These are extraordinary economics for a capital intensive business.
- SpaceX is targeting approximately 13 gigawatts of AI computing capacity by the end of 2027, up from just 1.7 gigawatts at the end of September. Musk even raised the possibility of exceeding 20 gigawatts.
As a member of The Arora Report, you have been ahead of the curve in understanding that the character of the stock market regarding AI in this phase is changing from the prior phase. SpaceX earnings provide another important data point. In the prior phase of AI in the stock market, investors rewarded companies for announcing massive AI spending. In this phase, investors are beginning to demand evidence of returns on that spending.
Further in The Arora Report analysis, SpaceX is showing extraordinary returns on AI computing today. However, its own plans to dramatically increase capacity illustrate the risk. As more capacity comes online across the industry, competition could pressure computing prices and reduce returns. This is a hidden risk that prudent investors need to pay attention to.
Also in The Arora Report analysis, the bottleneck is also changing. Having the best chips is no longer enough. Connectivity, power, cooling, and the ability to bring computing capacity online quickly are becoming increasingly important competitive advantages.
- In this phase of AI, investors will need greater differentiation between winners and losers.
- Expect sharp swings in stock prices.
- Expect objective analysis for investors to become harder to come by.
- Expect more pumps and dumps.
Elon Musk is working towards a merger of SpaceX and Tesla (TSLA). Both companies have set up special committees. TSLA is in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is a maker of AI servers. Super Micro Computer announced a surprise due to higher demand for AI servers. There is a position in SMCI in ZYX Buy. Here are the details of the announcement:
- Super Micro Computer is raising its Q1 revenue projection to $18.5B – $19.5B from prior $14.5B – $15.5B. The consensus has been $14.94B.
- Gross margin projection is now 12.0% – 12.5% vs. prior 10.4% -10.8%.
Anthropic’s S-1 is showing massive computing costs and an $80B net loss in the first half of 2026.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

France

After the weekend’s riots, the 10 year French government bond yield spiked above 5% before pulling back. This is the highest yield in 24 years. Prudent investors need to keep an eye on France to see how heavy debt and heavy spending are resolved as it will have implications for other countries.

India

There has long been tension between India and the U.S. over a trade deal. Now, Secretary of State Marco Rubio is saying 99% of the work is done, and the deal is weeks from finalizing. There has been concern that the U.S. has been tilting toward Pakistan and China. The trade deal with India will bring more balance to geopolitics and will provide an opportunity for investors in India. There is a position in India ETF EPI in ZYX Allocation and ZYX Emerging. There is a position in ZYX Buy in India focused fund FFXDF.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Nvidia (NVDA) and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon (AMZN) and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), and Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a draw of 4.93M barrels vs. a consensus of a draw of 1.3M barrels.

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is range bound.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7782 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7795, 7831, and 7900 : support levels are 7733, 7626, and 7541.

DJIA futures are up 247 points.

Gold futures are at $4155, silver futures are at $51.87, and oil futures are at $97.31.

AI BOOM WARNING – 408 TIMES OVERSUBSCRIBED AI IPO CRASHES 32%; STOCKS SOLD ON PROSPECT OF DEMOCRATIC SWEEP

Oct 20, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

AI Boom Warning

Please click here for a chart of leveraged semiconductor ETF (SOXL).

Note the following:

Semiconductors reflect the AI trade, and SOXL is the momo crowd’s favorite.
The chart shows yesterday’s rally attempt was not sustained in spite of very aggressive momo crowd buying.
The chart shows SOXL is close to the bottom band of zone 3 (support).
RSI on the chart shows SOXL continues to be very oversold. This indicates that if there is a positive fundamental or macro development, SOXL can rapidly move up.
In The Arora Report analysis, without a new fundamental or macro development, prudent investors need to carefully watch how SOXL acts around the low band of zone 3. A sustained move below zone 3 will be a negative not only for semiconductors but for the entire AI trade.
As a member of The Arora Report, you have been ahead of the curve regarding the changing character of this phase of AI. There is a new sign post confirming the changing character of this phase of AI.
- South Korean AI infrastructure company Elice plunged 32% on its first day of trading today, raising fresh concerns about the AI boom. Elice operates GPU cloud infrastructure and AI data centers similar to CoreWeave (CRWV).
- Retail investors oversubscribed to the Elice IPO 408 times and deposited $7B of real money. 408 times oversubscription means extreme enthusiasm among retail investors as they were willing to buy 408 shares for every one share available.
- The IPO was priced October 6 at the top of its range before the recent AI stock selloff and before the $5B IPO of Nvidia (NVDA) backed Australian data center company Firmus collapsed because investors balked at the valuation.
A 32% one day loss in Elice, at a minimum, should serve as an AI boom warning against paying any price for AI stocks and ignoring valuations. In The Arora Report analysis, the probability of the momo crowd paying attention is low because doing objective deep analysis is not part of their DNA.
In The Arora Report analysis, the key question for investors is whether massive AI infrastructure spending will generate adequate returns. Elice’s collapse shows that even strong growth and overwhelming IPO demand are no longer enough to support high AI valuations.
It is now even more important than before for prudent investors to build deeper knowledge of this phase of AI and how it is different from the prior phase. The best way to build this knowledge is to listen to the podcast series “The Next Phase Of AI” in Arora Ambassador Club. To get on the waitlist to join Arora Ambassador Club, please click here.
As a reminder, The Arora Report is politically agnostic. Our sole job at The Arora Report is to help members maximize the wealth they generate over their lifetimes. The key to maximizing wealth generation is to achieve high risk adjusted returns.
A segment of investors in the stock market is selling stocks, especially data center stocks, defense stocks, and bank stocks, on the prospect of a democratic sweep in the midterm elections.
- AI data center stocks are under pressure on fears of tighter regulations and a possible moratorium on new data center construction.
- The selling is also hitting companies that supply power, cooling equipment and other infrastructure to data centers.
- Defense stocks are being sold on concerns that Democrats could block President Trump's proposed $500B increase in military spending.
- Selling in bank stocks is due to concerns of increased regulation if Democrats score a sweeping victory.
In The Arora Report analysis, it is essential for investors to separate their politics from their investing. We are receiving a number of requests for an in depth podcast on the potential of a Democratic sweep in the midterm elections and the impact on investments. As many members of The Arora Report recognize, a lot of the headlines in the media are propaganda. Please write to ambassador@TheAroraReport.com if you are interested in a podcast that objectively digs into the issues related to the midterm elections.
There are important earnings after the close from SpaceX (SPCX), Netflix (NFLX), Capital One(COF), and United Airlines (UAL).
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Housing Starts

Housing starts are weak. Here are the details:

Housing starts came at 1.221M vs. 1.305M consensus.
Building permits came at 1.4M vs. 1.39M consensus.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7726 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7733, 7795, and 7831 : support levels are 7626, 7541, and 7318.

DJIA futures are up 16 points.

Gold futures are at $4134, silver futures are at $57.32, and oil futures are at $99.71.

MOMO CROWD BUYS TECH STOCKS – META AND TESLA EARNINGS WILL BE THE TEST; PAY ATTENTION TO PUTIN’S PROPOSAL

Oct 19, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Big Tech Earnings Ahead

Please click here for a chart of leverage semiconductor ETF (SOXL).

Note the following:

Semiconductors reflect the AI trade, and SOXL is the momo crowd's favorite.
The chart shows SOXL last week dropped to near the low band of zone 3 (support).
On Friday, we wrote:

The chart shows the nine day RSI reached 0.0, the most extreme oversold level RSI can be. The chart shows that during the period shown on the chart, RSI has never been this low.

RSI of 0.0 on Friday forecasted a bounce. This morning in the early trade, as the chart shows, SOXL has rallied from near the bottom band of zone 3.
To gain a perspective, the semiconductor index (SOX) has lost 15.7% over the last eight days. The last time a similar pattern occurred was in October 2008, when SOX lost 19.8%. On the following Monday, SOX gained 9.7% as the momo crowd super aggressively bought the dip. Subsequently, SOX fell much lower. Keep in mind history does not always repeat itself.
Momo crowd buying in semiconductors this morning is extremely aggressive. Momo gurus are spreading the narrative that the semiconductor pullback is over and urging their followers to buy semiconductors aggressively.
Meta (META) and Tesla (TSLA) kick off big tech earnings on Wednesday. Meta and Tesla earnings and the stock market’s reaction will be a test for the stock market.
In The Arora Report analysis, Meta’s earnings will be especially instructive:
- The most important will be Meta’s capital spend projections.
- The reaction of the AI trade to Meta’s capital spend number will be more instructive than the market’s reaction in META stock. The reason is that META stock has another major factor in Muse AI agent adaption.
The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks of neoclouds this morning, including CoreWeave (CRWV), Nebius (NBIS), and IREN (IREN). CRWV stock plunged last week on heavy debt concerns.
Apple (AAPL) is seeing extraordinary demand for its foldable phone. Apple is important because during the AI trade carnage of the last week, money was flowing out of the AI trade and into the presumed safety of AAPL stock.
In The Arora Report analysis, long term investors should pay careful attention to President Putin’s proposal.
- President Putin is proposing that he, President Trump, and President Xi meet on Chinese soil to decide an end to the Ukraine war on terms favorable to Russia.
- Ukraine will not be included in the talks.
- Presumably, the E.U. will not be included in the talks.
- Such a meeting on Chinese soil will be a big victory for China as it would elevate China’s position in the world.
- From an investment perspective if such a meeting were to occur, in the long term it would be negative for the U.S. and, in turn, U.S. stocks.
- If such a meeting were to occur, the actionable items will be:
  - The Arora Protection Band will likely see an increase.
  - There will be more diversification into gold, commodities, and international stocks.
Oil is pulling back on the prospect of President Trump striking a deal with President Putin.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

France

After weekend riots, French bonds and stocks are coming under pressure. France has been overspending on welfare programs, but politically, it is difficult to pull back on government overspending.

In The Arora Report analysis, prudent investors should pay attention to France because whatever happens in France might be an early indication of things to come in other countries.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates and bonds are range bound.

The dollar is range bound.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 7739 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7795, 7831, and 7900 : support levels are 7733, 7626, and 7541.

DJIA futures are down 148 points.

Gold futures are at $4182, silver futures are at $57.62, and oil futures are at $97.43.

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.

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