By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report. 

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

MONEY FLOWING INTO CHINESE STOCKS, ESPECIALLY ALIBABA; THE MAIN EVENT AHEAD IS NVIDIA EARNINGS

Feb 21, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

King Nvidia Earnings Ahead

Please click here for a chart of Chinese e-commerce company Alibaba stock (BABA).

Note the following:

• The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.  The chart of BABA stock is being used to illustrate the point.
• The chart shows the rise in BABA stock over the last several weeks. The rise is due to money flowing into Chinese stocks, especially BABA.
• The chart shows when an Arora buy signal was triggered.
• The chart shows the jump up in BABA stock yesterday on earnings.
• The chart shows the jump up was on heavy volume, indicating conviction.
• The chart shows the Arora signals to take partial profits during the rise and on yesterday’s jump up.
• RSI on the chart shows BABA stock is overbought.  Overbought stocks are susceptible to a pullback.
• Part of the buying in BABA is coming from the meme crowd after a report that Ryan Cohen, founder of Chewy (CHWY), has bought almost $1B worth of BABA stock.  Previously, Ryan Cohen triggered a meme crowd buying frenzy in GameStop stock (GME).
• Money is flowing in aggressively in all Chinese stocks, especially tech stocks.  Overnight, stocks in Hong Kong jumped 4%.
• Recently, the momo crowd’s favorite stocks took a hit.  In the early trade, the momo crowd is aggressively buying the dip in the momo crowd’s favorite stocks, including Palantir (PLTR), MicroStrategy (MSTR), Robinhood (HOOD), AppLovin (APP), Hims & Hers Health (HIMS), Oklo (OKLO), IonQ (IONQ), and Rigetti Computing (RGTI).
• Crypto company Coinbase (COIN) is seeing aggressive buying after the SEC dropped a long running case against Coinbase as President Trump remakes the SEC to ease regulation on cryptos.
• The drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is due to only one stock, UnitedHealth (UNH).  UNH stock is falling 11.6% as of this writing in the premarket.  One of the reasons The Arora Report has refrained from giving a signal on UHN stock, in spite of our system repeatedly triggering buy signals on UNH, has been our concern that a unit of UNH may be improperly diagnosing patients with conditions for which Medicare has high billing rates.  There have been allegations that a large number of patients have been diagnosed with conditions that they do not have.  UNH stock is falling this morning on the news that the Department of Justice has finally launched the long due civil fraud investigation.  UNH contends that it is simply proactively treating patients to prevent disease.  The news is bringing down other stocks such as CVS (CVS), Humana (HUM), and Cigna (CI).
• The main event ahead for the stock market is Nvidia (NVDA) earnings.  Investors will be looking for insights on the impact of DeepSeek on Nvidia.  When NVDA stock fell on DeepSeek panic, The Arora Report gave a buy signal for a trade around position in ZYX Buy.  A trade around position is a technique used by billionaires and hedge funds to dramatically increase returns and reduce risks.  The trade around position in NVDA has been nicely profitable and partial profits have been taken.  The plan is to take complete profits on the NVDA trade around position before earnings as earnings is a risk event.  Further, the plan is to hold the NVDA core position which is long from $12.55, representing a gain of 1022% for members of The Arora Report.  In The Arora Report analysis, Nvidia earnings will impact the entire stock market.  
• University of Michigan consumer sentiment will be released at 10am ET.  At The Arora Report, we will be very carefully scrutinizing this data after the lower guidance from Walmart (WMT).  The data may be market moving.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and positive in Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying on SEC withdrawing its long running case against COIN.

Markets

Interest rates and bonds are range bound.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6141 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6256, 6500, and 6700: support levels are 6131, 6017, and 5926.

DJIA futures are down 217 points.

Gold futures are at $2946, silver futures are at $33.36, and oil futures are at $71.98.

Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.  The proprietary protection band from The Arora Report is very popular.  The protection band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.  A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

PALANTIR AND WALMART INJECT A DOSE OF REALITY IN TRUMP HOPIUM, YEN RISES AND GOLD HITS NEW HIGH

Feb 20, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Dose Of Reality

Please click here for a chart of AI software company Palantir stock (PLTR).

Note the following:

• The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of PLTR stock is being used to illustrate the point.
• The stock market has been running up on Trump hopium.  This morning, Palantir and Walmart (WMT) are injecting a dose of reality.
• The chart shows a big drop in PLTR stock and the Arora signal to take partial profits.
• The chart shows when the core PLTR position was bought.  At the time of taking partial profits yesterday, The Arora Report members had a gain of 453% in about a year.  PLTR is in the Core Model Portfolio in ZYX Buy.
• The Arora Report has also recently given signals to take partial profits on very profitable positions in aerospace and defense ETF (ITA) as well as on aerospace and defense stock RTX (RTX).
• The trigger for the signals on defense stocks is President Trump’s plan to cut 8% from the defense budget over each of the next five years.  In 2013, when a similar cut occurred in one year, the long term contracts for new weapons were protected.  The burden of the cuts mostly fell on highly trained personnel losing their jobs and other programs such as reducing flight training hours.  It is not clear how Trump will make the cuts.  For certain, programs such as DEI and climate change will be eliminated, but the savings from them will simply be a drop in the bucket.
• Walmart is the largest retailer.  Walmart is guiding lower.  The real cause of lower guidance appears to be the uncertainty caused by Trump’s election.  WMT stock is in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio.  Members of The Arora Report have a gain of 406%, even after a big drop in WMT stock in the early trade on lower guidance.
• University of Michigan consumer sentiment will be released tomorrow.  At The Arora Report, we will be very carefully scrutinizing this data after the lower guidance from Walmart.
• The FOMC minutes are hawkish.  The Fed is content with not cutting rates any further for the time being.  Hawkish Fed minutes stopped the stock market rally in its tracks yesterday afternoon.  Normally, with the present positioning, the stock market would have experienced a significant drop on these hawkish Fed minutes.  However, momo gurus have successfully sold the narrative that inflation, interest rates, and the economy do not matter anymore due to their faith in Trump.
• Gold is hitting a fresh high.  Please see the section below.
• Initial jobless claims came at 219K vs. 217K consensus.  This indicates that the overall jobs picture remains strong.  The layoffs are primarily in information technology.
• Leading indicators will be released today at 10am ET and may be market moving.  The consensus is 0.0%.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Japan

The yen is rising on the belief that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will soon raise interest rates.  Prudent investors need to keep an eye on the yen as it impacts the carry trade. Remember what happened in August 2024 when the yen rose – the U.S. stock market experienced a big drop.  There is a position in yen ETF FXY in the ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio.  

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Alphabet (GOOG).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is ***  in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

President Trump has bought into Russia’s narrative on Ukraine.  Previously, we shared with you that Trump said that Ukraine attacked Russia.  Now, Trump is siding with Russia in calling Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy a dictator.  Trump siding with Russia is causing significant unease among investors across the globe. The result of the unease is that investors are buying gold.  

Gold hit a fresh new high.  A core position as well as a trade around position in gold are in ZYX Allocation.  Prudent investors need to keep in mind that gold is very overbought. 

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a build of 3.339M barrels vs. a consensus of a build of 2.2M barrels.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking  down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6144 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6256, 6500, and 6700: support levels are 6131, 6017, and 5926.

DJIA futures are down 142 points.

Gold futures are at $2956, silver futures are at $33.51, and oil futures are at $72.50.

THE UNTHINKABLE HAPPENED FOR SMART CRYPTO BULLS, TRUMP’S TARIFF PLAN HAMPERS STOCK MARKET RALLY

Feb 19, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

New Tariffs

Please click here for a chart comparing gold ETF (GLD) to bitcoin ETF (IBIT).

Note the following:

• The chart shows gold has outperformed bitcoin in 2025 by 13.92%.
• The higher the volatility, the higher return prudent investors demand to compensate for higher volatility.
• The chart shows bitcoin has been very volatile.  In contrast, gold has had very low volatility – just a smooth rise.
• The chart proves that the unthinkable for smart crypto bulls has happened.  Smart crypto bulls had been basking in their glory that the Trump family, many cabinet members, many congressmen, and Wall Street had positioned themselves to heavily profit from cryptos.  There is no data that shows that the powerful people in the U.S. are positioned to profit from rising gold.  As a matter of fact, it appears that some on Wall Street have been shorting gold. If the foregoing was not enough, with hundreds of millions of dollars of campaign contributions, crypto bulls have convinced President Trump to set up a U.S. strategic bitcoin reserve.  Crypto bulls have been pushing for the U.S. government to sell its gold to finance a bitcoin buying spree.   In addition, both the meme crowd and momo crowd have been aggressively buying cryptos.
• The chart shows that in the face of the foregoing, gold has outperformed the biggest crypto, i.e. bitcoin.
• For gold to outperform bitcoin has been unthinkable for smart crypto bulls. Afterall, their argument has been that gold is useless and that is why the U.S. government should sell its gold and buy bitcoin.  
• Here is how the unthinkable has happened.
  • Foreign central banks, including those in China, India, Turkey, and Poland, have been buying gold.
  • Smart money is buying gold all across the globe.
• For those who want next level information on the very important subject of investing in bitcoin and gold, there are several podcasts available in Arora Ambassador Club.  To get on the waitlist to join the club, please fill out the form below.
• The stock market’s attempt to break above the micro resistance zone and to run up aggressively is being hampered by two statements from Trump:
  • Trump intends to impose 25% tariffs on autos, chips, and drugs starting in April.
  • Trump is blaming Ukraine for starting the Russia Ukraine war.
• The foundation of this stock market is trust in Trump.  Trump’s statement about Ukraine are beginning to bring the trust in Trump into question.
• FOMC minutes will be released at 2pm ET.  At The Arora Report, we will be reading the report to gain insights into the Fed’s thinking.  The minutes may be market moving.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Housing

Housing is weakening.  Month-over-month single family housing starts dropped 8.4%.  In addition to the data, the latest earnings from luxury home builder Toll Brothers (TOL) are significantly below whisper numbers.  Here is the latest housing data:

• Housing starts came at 1.366M vs. 1.40M consensus.
• Building permits came at 1.483M vs. 1.45M consensus.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN) and Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

Oil is being bought on supply concerns and a big bank claiming the Ukraine peace talks will not increase Russian oil supply. The consensus is that Trump’s efforts will increase oil supply from Russia.

The momo crowd is buying oil in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking  up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6134 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6256, 6500, and 6700: support levels are 6131, 6017, and 5926.

DJIA futures are down 92 points.

Gold futures are at $2951, silver futures are at $33.37, and oil futures are at $72.51.

HERE IS HOW SMART MONEY INVESTS, STOCK BUYING ON UKRAINE PEACE TALKS

Feb 18, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

How Smart Money Invests

Please click here for a chart of SoundHound AI (SOUN).

Note the following:

• The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.  The chart of SOUN stock is being used to illustrate the point.
• SoundHound makes conversational intelligence and voice AI technologies that allow hands free interactions for businesses across many industries, including restaurants.
• The chart illustrates how smart money invests and how the momo crowd often becomes the bag holder.
• In the case of SOUN stock, smart money is Nvidia (NVDA).  Nvidia bought SOUN stock, presumably around $2.13 per share in late 2023.
• The chart shows when SOUN stock became one of the most popular momo crowd stocks.
• The chart shows the momo crowd aggressively bought SOUN, rapidly running up the stock.
• The volume on the chart shows how aggressive the buying was.
• Nvidia took advantage of the momo crowd buying and presumably sold near the highs shown on the chart.
• The chart shows that after momo crowd buying was exhausted, the stock started drifting down.  The chart shows when the news broke that Nvidia had already sold SOUN stock.  The chart shows a gap down.
• This also illustrates why investors need to get ahead of the news. The news that the momo crowd relies on about smart money buying and selling is often delayed by months.
• In The Arora Report analysis, due to the latest developments in AI, the system from SoundHound is likely falling behind the state of the art.  Presumably, this was the reason for Nvidia selling, in addition to taking advantage of the strength created by momo crowd buying.
• Prudent investors should note, there are a large number of popular stocks in this market that have run up on momo crowd buying.  The day of reckoning for such stocks is ahead.  
• In the early trade, stocks are being bought on Ukraine peace talks between the U.S. and Russia.  Prudent investors should note that Ukraine and Europe have been left out of these talks.  S&P 500 is breaking above the prior micro resistance zone in the early trade and heading towards a new high.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band. The protection band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Microsoft (MSFT), Tesla (TSLA), and NVDA.

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL) and Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling.  Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways.  The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

OPEC+ is considering delaying oil production increase due to Trump wanting to produce more oil in the U.S.  This is bringing buying into oil.

The momo crowd is buying oil in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6156 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6256, 6500, and 6700: support levels are  6131, 6017, and 5926

DJIA futures are up 39 points.

Gold futures are at $2933, silver futures are at $33.06, and oil futures are at $71.13.

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.