10 YEAR YIELD TOPS 4% FINALLY CATCHING ATTENTION OF THE AI CRAZED MOMO CROWD

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By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

Editor’s Note:

This is the Afternoon Capsule that was provided before the important jobs report was released.  The jobs report was released this morning.  To see the latest on the jobs report, please see the Morning Capsule that is available to paying subscribers.  The Morning Capsule is issued every morning before the market open.

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know now.

10 Year Yield Tops 4%

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

  • In the Morning Capsule, we wrote:

When the AI frenzy started, it disconnected the magnificent seven stocks from interest rates. The magnificent seven are  Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Nvidia (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA). The popular Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) has risen mostly due to the rise in the magnificent seven stocks.

  • Also, in the Morning Capsule, we shared with you that Treasury yields were rising.
  • 10 year Treasuries are at 4.037% as of this writing.
  • The momo crowd is finally paying attention after 10 year Treasury yield crossed 4%.
  • 2 year Treasury yield has crossed 5%.
  • The magnificent seven stocks are not soaring today.  Today’s leader Microsoft is up less than 1% as of this writing.
  • The chart shows when the blowout ADP jobs data was released.  Please read the Morning Capsule for details.
  • The chart shows when JOLTS job openings data was released.  JOLTS  came at 9.824M vs. 9.91 consensus.
  • The chart shows when ISM Non-manufacturing Index was released.  ISM came at 53.9% vs. 51.1% consensus.  
  • Today’s new economic data supports the Fed’s case for additional tightening.
    • Powell previously indicated that the market should expect two more rate hikes this year.
    • The market is already factoring in a 25 basis point hike in July.
    • The probability of an interest rate hike in September is now 27.7% vs. 18.1% prior.  Additionally, the probability of an interest rate hike in November is now 48.1% vs. 35.9% prior.
  • The VUD indicator is the most sensitive measure of net supply demand in real-time. The orange represents net supply and the green represents net demand.
  • The VUD indicator has turned green, indicating net demand for stocks as the momo crowd aggressively buys the dip.
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Potential After Hour Signals

Signals may be given after hours based on the news that will be released after hours.  The best trades often occur outside regular hours.  The reason is that almost all earnings are outside regular hours.

Buy signals will be in ZYX Buy.  Short signals will be in ZYX Short.

Here is the list:

LEVI

Money Flows

The momo crowd money flows since the Morning Capsule are 🔒 (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial).

Smart money flows since the Morning Capsule are 🔒.

Short squeeze money flows are 🔒.

A Special Note To New Subscribers

Note the smart money behavior.  Smart money tends to sell into strength on strong up days.

New subscribers should consider adopting smart money’s way of investing and trading.

Sentiment

Sentiment is 🔒.

Sentiment is a contrary indicator at extremes.  In plain English, this means that when sentiment becomes extremely positive it is time to sell and when sentiment becomes extremely negative it is time to buy.

Close

There appear to be sell on close orders.

There is merit to watching the pattern of market on close orders as they represent the day’s dominant net cumulative activity by many professionals and funds.

Gold

The momo crowd money flows in gold are 🔒 since the Morning Capsule.

Smart money flows are 🔒 in gold since the Morning Capsule.

Oil

 crude oil inventories came at a draw of 1.5M barrels.

The momo crowd money flows in oil are 🔒 since the Morning Capsule.

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Smart money flows in oil are 🔒 since the Morning Capsule.

Buy Zones And Buy Now Ratings

🔒

Nibbling

🔒

This post was published yesterday in The Arora Report paid services.  Since then the Morning Capsule has had an update in the paid services.

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.

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