WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: BUYING ON TARIFF ROLLBACK BATTLE, CHINESE ECONOMY SLOWS, GOLD BREAKS SUPPORT $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBT

WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: BUYING ON TARIFF ROLLBACK BATTLE, CHINESE ECONOMY SLOWS, GOLD BREAKS SUPPORT $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBT $USO

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section What To Do Now.

CHINESE ECONOMY SLOWS, OPPOSITION TO TARIFF ROLLBACKS

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Chinese Economy Slows

The Chinese economy is slowing but less than expected.  October exports fell 0.9% vs. consensus of a fall of 3.9%.  Imports fell 6.4% vs. consensus of a fall of 8.9%.

Opposition To Tariff Rollbacks

There are reports of fierce internal opposition in the White House against tariff rollbacks.  The Chinese appear to be insisting that tariff rollbacks are a precondition to phase one deal.  Only Trump knows what he is going to decide.  There can be significant implications for the markets if Trump decides to take a hard line on tariffs.  The consensus on Wall Street is that Trump wants a deal and tariffs will be rolled back.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is lightly buying stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is lightly and selectively selling.

Gold

Yesterday morning we wrote the possibility of  gold breaking support at $1,484.  Gold has broken the support.

The momo crowd is aggressively selling gold.  Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is buying oil.  Smart money is selling oil into the strength.

For longer term, please see oil ratings.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is selling marijuana stocks.  Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

Chinese Mainland stocks are breaking out.  This is bullish.  ETF of interest is ASHR.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative but can easily swing positive based on rumors and news related to trade.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Gold futures are at $1460, silver futures are at $16.84, and oil futures are $56.23.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  3100 and 3125; support levels are 3050, 3020 and 2950.

DJIA futures are up 1 points.

BUYING IN STOCKS AND OIL ON AGREEMENT TO ROLLBACK TARIFFS

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Tariff Rollback

China says that the U. S. and China have agreed to rollback tariffs in phases.  This is causing more optimism.

Jobless Claims

Our system has heavy weight on leading indicators.  A good leading indicator to follow is initial jobless claims that are reported weekly.

Initial Jobless Claims came at 211K vs. 217K consensus.  The lower the claims, stronger is the economy.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is buying stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is lightly and selectively selling into the strength.

Gold

The momo crowd is selling gold.  Gold is now approaching support in the zone of $1484 to $1484.  It will be worth watching to see if the support holds or breaks.

Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

Oil is being bought on optimism over trade.  The momo crowd is aggressively buying oil.  Smart money is lightly selling into the strength.

For longer term, please see oil ratings.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is selling marijuana stocks.  Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is positive but can quickly turn negative if there is a ‘sell the news’ reaction to tariff rollback.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.

Currencies are range bound.

Gold futures are at $1485, silver futures are at $17.53, and oil futures are $57.23.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  3100 and 3125; support levels are 3050, 3020 and 2950.

DJIA futures are up 152 points.

INFLATION PROPAGANDA MAY HAVE TO CHANGE, BETTER DATA FROM EUROPE, POSITIVE SEASONALITY

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Inflation Propaganda May Have To Change

Q3 Labor Costs – Prelim came at 3.6% vs. 2.1% consensus.  This data indicates that there is risk of inflation. Right now the propaganda from the government and economists is that there is no inflation and that is why the Fed can lower interest rates.

Better Data From Europe

IHS Mrkit final eurozone composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 50.6 vs. consensus of 50.2.  This is a leading indicator.  Our system focuses on leading indicators.  A number above 50 indicates growth and a number below 50 indicates contraction.

In our analysis, this data is encouraging but Europe is not yet out of the woods.

Positive Seasonality

Historically the period between now and the end of January is positive for the stock market.  However some years, like last year, are exceptions.  Last year the market fell about 20% at the end the year.  This year conditions are different.  As we have written before, the big difference is that last year the Fed was tightening, but this year the Fed is easing.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is buying stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive.

Gold

Momentum in gold has reversed from negative to positive as gold bounces from technical support.

The momo crowd is buying gold in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive.

In our analysis, resistance in gold is ahead and momentum may turn negative again unless the stock market starts going down or there is news that moves money into the safe haven of gold.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API data shows crude build of 4.26M barrels vs. consensus of 1.5M barrels build.  This data is bearish.  However the momo crowd is oblivious and continues to buy oil on the positive momentum from China trade optimism.

Smart money is lightly selling into the strength.

EIA data will be released at 10:30 am ET and may move the market.

For longer term, please see oil ratings.

Marijuana

GWPH is the only company with an FDA approved marijuana based drug.  The earnings were not great. The stock has fallen $16 as of the writing to $118.75.

The momo crowd is lightly selling marijuana stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

Silver is tracing  a top triangle.  This is bearish.  ETF of interest is SLV.

Utilities are tracing a triple top.  This is bearish.  ETF of interest is XLU.

Small-caps are breaking out.  This is bullish. ETF of interest is IWM.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral and can easily swing either way with a higher probability of a down move.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Gold futures are at $1487, silver futures are at $17.48, and oil futures are $56.91.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 3100 and 3125; support levels are 3050, 3020 and 2950.

DJIA futures are up 29 points.

TARIFF ROLLBACKS ON THE TABLE, YUAN RALLIES, SELLING IN BONDS, LOWER OIL DEMAND

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Tariff Rollbacks

There are reports that the U. S. is considering rollbacks of tariffs on Chinese goods to persuade China to sign the phase one deal.

In our analysis, this is good for the stock market in the short term but a big negative if you have a three to five year time frame.

Yuan Rallies

Chinese currency yuan is rallying on talk of tariff rollbacks.

Selling In Bonds

Money is moving out of Treasury bonds and into risk assets such as stocks and oil.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is buying stocks.  Smart money is inactive.

Gold

Money is moving out of gold and into stocks.

The momo crowd is aggressively selling gold. Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

OPEC is cutting its estimate of demand for oil by about 7% over the next four years.

In theory, oil should be crushed on this news.  However the momo crowd is oblivious and buying oil on upside momentum and potential tariff rollbacks.

Smart money is lightly selling into the strength.

For longer term, please see oil ratings.

Marijuana

There is no discernable momo crowd or smart money activity in marijuana.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is positive but can quickly swing negative.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.

Dollar is stronger.

Gold futures are at $1495, silver futures are at $17.79, and oil futures are $56.94.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 3100 and 3125; support levels are 3050, 3020 and 2950.

DJIA futures are up 75 points.

SECRETARY ROSS IGNITES A RALLY WITH HIS COMMENTS

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Secretary Ross Comments

Secretary Ross has ignited another rally in the stock market with his two comments:

  • Ross sees no reason for phase one of the trade deal between the U. S. and China not to be signed this month. He made the comment before meeting the Chinese Premier Keqiang.
  • Ross also said that there may not be a need to put tariffs on autos from Europe and Japan.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is lightly selling into the strength.

Gold

The momo crowd is lightly buying gold.  Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is aggressively buying oil.  Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see oil ratings.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is acting like a yo-yo in marijuana stocks.  Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is positive.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is slightly stronger.

Gold futures are at $1512, silver futures are at $18.14, and oil futures are $56.78.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  3100 and 3125; support levels are 3050, 3020 and 2950.

DJIA futures are up 158 points.

WHAT TO DO NOW

Looking ahead and not only in the rear view mirror, consider continuing to hold existing core portfolio positions.  Based on individual risk preference, consider holding cash or treasury bills 22% – 32% and short to medium-term hedges of  5% – 15% and short term hedges of 5% – 15%.

 

A knowledgeable investor would have turned $100,000 into over $1,000,000 with the help from The Arora Report. NOW YOU TOO CAN ALSO SPECTACULARLY SUCCEED AT MEETING YOUR GOALS WITH THE HELP OF THE ARORA REPORT. You are receiving less than 2% of the content from our paid services. …TO RECEIVE REMAINING 98% INCLUDING MANY ATTRACTIVE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES, TAKE A FREE TRIAL TO PAID SERVICES.

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