WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: GOLD AT RECORD HIGH AS INVESTORS MOVE TO PROTECT STOCK MARKET PORTFOLIOS $DJIA $SPX $QQQ $GLD $SLV $USO $GDX $AZN

WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: GOLD AT RECORD HIGH AS INVESTORS MOVE TO PROTECT STOCK MARKET PORTFOLIOS $DJIA $SPX $QQQ $GLD $SLV $USO

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section What To Do Now.

WEAK RESPONSE FROM CHINA TO HOUSTON CONSULATE CLOSURE IS POSITIVE IN THE LONG TERM, GOLD AT $1,900

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Weak Response From China

As diplomatic tussles go, China was obligated to respond to Houston consulate closure. China could have easily given a strong response such as closure in Hong Kong. Instead China chose to order shutdown of U. S. mission in Chengdu.  Chengdu is in Southwestern China and is not important to business.

In our analysis, the weak response from China is intended to deescalate the situation. Investors  need to be concerned about what Trump will do next.  The election is coming. Both Trump and Biden are competing with each other on  being tough on China.

Data Ahead

At 9:45 am, IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI and Services PMI will be released. PMI stands for purchasing managers index — the data indicates how purchasing managers feel about the future.  The consensus is 52.0 for manufacturing and 51.0 for services.  A number above 50 is considered positive.

New home sales data will be released at 10:00 am ET.  Consensus is 700,000.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is inactive in the early trade.  This is a rare occurrence in 2020. Smart money is inactive.

Gold

Gold futures have reached the important psychological level of $1,900.

The momo crowd is aggressively buying gold in the early trade.  The Smart money is inactive.

The momo crowd is aggressively buying silver in the early trade.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo is buying oil in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see oil ratings.

Marijuana

There is no discernable activity between the momo crowd and smart money in the early trade.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is weaker.

Gold futures are at $1900, silver futures are at $23.03, and oil futures are $41.29.

S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 3228, 3278 and 3320: support levels are 3182, 3155 and 3124.

DJIA futures are down 142 points.

OUTLOOK ON GOLD AND SILVER, EARNINGS, JOBLESS CLAIMS

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Outlook On Gold And Silver

In our analysis at The Arora Report, gold has entered a bullish phase that can last several years. We also think that there is better than 50% probability of gold approaching $3,000 in this cycle.

In the short term, gold is very overbought and there is resistance in the zone of $1,900 to $1,917. If this resistance is broken, the psychological number of $2,000 will act like a magnet for traders.  However since gold is technically overbought, it is vulnerable to a sharp correction. In our view, a sharp correction, if it occurs, should be bought.

Gold is priced in dollars.  Due to Federal Reserve policies and massive borrowing by the U. S. government, the dollar may weaken. If the dollar weakens, that will be a tailwind for gold.

Real interest rates are negative and that is always positive for gold.

The risk to the bullish case is that there is an effective vaccine soon, economic growth picks up across the globe and interest rates start rising.  Rising interest rates are negative for gold. It is important to stay nimble and alert to new data.

Regarding silver, you may recall that after being uber bullish on silver for year,  The Arora Report gave an outright sell signal on the day it reached $50.  Not only that, The Arora Report also gave a short sell signal on silver with a target of $34 in a matter of weeks.  Both calls turned out to be spot on — silver topped the day the sell and short sell signals were given at $50 and reached $34 a short time later.  This time, the case for silver is not as clear as it was during the last bull run.

Pasted below are our ratings:

The Arora Report precious metal ratings are widely used by bullion dealers, jewelers, investors and money managers across the globe.

  • Positive in the very, very short-term but a high probability of a sharp up move.
  • Mild Positive in the very short-term but a high probability of a sharp up move.
  • Neutral in the short-term.
  • Positive in the medium-term.
  • Positive in the long-term.
  • Very Positive in the very long-term.

Earnings

Yesterday we shared with you that after the close there were two important earnings, TSLA and MSFT.  On the surface, TSLA reported earnings significantly better than the whisper numbers.  TSLA stock is up on earnings. However looking below the surface, earnings include a $300 million regulatory credit.  Without this regulatory credit, TSLA would have had a loss.  But this is a fact — in this market, facts are to be ignored, so goes the prevailing wisdom.  If the market was paying attention to the facts, TSLA stock would have been down.

On the surface MSFT also reported good earnings.  The big driver behind MSFT stock up move has been cloud growth. The earnings report shows that cloud growth is slowing.  Considering a P/E multiple of 35 (very expensive) and the stock run, in a normal market, the stock would have experienced a significant decline on these earnings. However slowing growth in the main driver is a fact and facts are to be ignored as per the prevailing wisdom in this stock market. The stock is only slightly lower.

Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims came at 1.416M vs. 1.285M consensus.  This is going in the wrong direction and it is a negative data point. However, so far the market is choosing to ignore it as the momo crowd is focused only on momentum and more borrowing by the government.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is buying stocks in the early trade. Smart money is inactive.

Gold

The momo crowd is aggressively buying gold in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive.

The momo crowd is aggressively buying silver in the early trade.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is buying oil in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see oil ratings.

Marijuana

There is no discernable momo crowd or smart money activity in marijuana stocks in the early trade.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking  down and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

Gold futures are at $1874, silver futures are at $22.81, and oil futures are $41.57.

S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 3278, 3320 and 3390: support levels are 3228, 3182 and 3155.

DJIA futures are down 11 points.

MAJOR ESCALATION — THE U. S. SHUTS CHINA’S CONSULATE, OPTIMISM FROM VACCINE DEAL

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

China’s Consulate

The U. S. has taken an extraordinary step of shutting down China’s Consulate in Houston. The Consulate was open in 1979.

The U. S. is accusing China of massive spying. There are reports of Chinese burning documents. China is vowing to retaliate.

This is a major escalation of the dispute with China. In a normal market, this would have caused the market to go down by at least 500 DJIA points.  This market has barely yawned because the market is controlled by the momo crowd and the momo crowd is not known for any analysis.  The momo crowd continues to keep on buying because the market is going up.

Vaccine Deal

The U. S. has reached a deal with PFE to supply up to 600 million COVID-19 vaccine doses.  Stocks of PFE and its partner BNTX are moving up.  This is creating optimism.

We previously stated that PFE had the best shot at coming up with a vaccine, the stock had the lowest risk among vaccine stocks and a very nice dividend.  This is the reason PFE was added to the Model Portfolio.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is buying stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is mostly inactive but selectively selling.

Gold

The momo crowd is buying gold in the early trade. Smart money is inactive.

The momo crowd is extremely aggressively buying silver. Please note that allocation to precious metals has increased. Please see gold ratings.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is buying oil in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see oil ratings.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is buying marijuana stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking   down and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is  lower.

Gold futures are at $1853, silver futures are at $22.91, and oil futures are $41.31.

S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 3278, 3320 and 3390: support levels are 3228, 3182 and 3155.

DJIA futures are down 64 points.

A NEW STOCK MARKET HIGH AHEAD FROM MONEY PRINTING AND BORROWING — IS THERE A LIMIT?

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

More Borrowing

The stock market is likely headed towards a new high fueled by borrowing and money printing, European leaders have agreed on a recovery plan that will cost $2.06 trillion.  In the U. S., another stimulus package is ahead.  It is out of fashion to consider how the borrowed money will be paid back. Central banks stand ready to print as much money as they want — there appear to be no constraints on the central bankers — they are not elected.

The momo (momentum) crowd is celebrating by increasingly aggressive buying of the momo stocks. Prudent investors are asking: “Is there a limit?”  Let’s explore with the help of a chart.

The Chart

Please click here for an annotated chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) which represents popular stock market index Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).

Note the following:

  • The chart is a monthly chart to give stock market investors a long term perspective.
  • The chart shows that the stock market has broken out decisively above the upper band of the support/resistance zone.
  • The breakout is happening as RSI is giving a buy signal.
  • The combination of the breakout and RSI is powerful especially since RSI is not overbought. When RSI is above 70, as shown by the purple line on the RSI pane on the chart, it is considered overbought.
  • The chart shows that from a technical perspective, there are no hurdles for the stock market to reach a new high.
  • The chart shows progression of the Fed’s balance sheet — a fancy way of talking about money printing.
  • The chart shows that before the great recession, the Fed’s balance sheet stood at $0.87 trillion. Now it is headed toward $10 trillion.
  • Not shown on the chart is that the U. S. debt is now about $26.5 trillion. When properly accounting for all the liabilities of the government, total liabilities stand at about $132.68 trillion.
  • By some estimates, each tax payer’s share of the liability is $860,000.

Where Is The Limit?

The limit is determined by the following factors:

  • Inflation
  • Currency depreciation
  • Difficulty borrowing
  • Higher interest rates
  • Social unrest
  • Public awakening

Right now, none of the above factors are in play for the following reasons:

  • Inflation numbers have been low because of the way the government calculates inflation, artificially low interest rates and globalization.
  • Currency depreciation has not been an issue because most governments in the world are engaging in similar policies.
  • Borrowing is not an issue because there is a surplus of capital.
  • Central banks are determined to artificially keep interest rates at low levels and even negative in some parts of the world.
  • We are beginning to see early signs of social unrest but we are a long ways off from a revolution.
  • There are no signs of public awakening of the long term consequences.

Practical Pointers For Investors

For investors, here are a few practical pointers.

  • Hold some gold in the portfolio. Take a look at the following ETFs: gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV) and gold miner ETF (GDX). A big part of our research is devoted to precise allocation levels and signals for precious metals.
  • The big money is hiding in the five large cap tech stocks of Amazon (AMZN), Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL), Microsoft (MFST) and Facebook (FB). Keep a close watch on these stocks.
  • Keep a close eye on the momo crowds’ favorite stocks such as Tesla (TSLA), Zoom Video (ZM), Netflix (NFLX) and Peloton (PTON).
  • Accept that this is a bubble but know that this bubble is likely to get bigger before it pops.
  • Know that a lot of money is to be made as the bubble gets bigger.
  • Hold on to good long term positions but use the concept of protection bands to protect your portfolio.
  • Understand the difference between strategic investing and tactical trading. Take advantage of opportunities with short term tactical trades in addition to long term strategic investments.
  • Make sure you have access to accurate data and rigorous analytical analysis that is independent and not driven by ulterior motives.
  • Stay nimble and do not get locked into a bullish or bearish opinion.
  • Pay attention to the election risk.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive.

Gold

The momo crowd is aggressively buying gold in the early trade. Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is extremely aggressively buying oil in the early trade. Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see oil ratings.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is buying marijuana stocks in the early trade. Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral but expect the market to open strongly higher.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking  down and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Gold futures are at $1840, silver futures are at $21.39, and oil futures are $42.20.

S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 3278, 3320 and 3390: support levels are 3228, 3182 and 3155.

DJIA futures are up 134 points.

VACCINE IS GOOD FOR EVERYBODY BUT NOT FOR YOUR FAVORITE STOCKS

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Vaccine Progress

 and BNTX will provide vaccine to U. K. News from Oxford vaccine will be published in the Lancet Journal. The embargo lift time is 6:30 ET.

We all want a safe and effective vaccine. Certainly one or more effective vaccines are good for the economy. However the stock market is detached from the economy. Here is the key question for investors, “How will the stock market react to the news of vaccine, not immediately but over a period of time?” Let’s examine with the help of a chart.

The Chart

Please click here for a chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) which represents the popular stock market index Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).

Note the following:

  • The top pane of the chart shows Dow Jones Industrial Average reversal.
  • The top pane shows that since the reversal, Dow Jones Industrial Average is still continuing to levitate.
  • The second pane of the chart shows Tesla (TSLA) stock. It is important to watch Tesla these days because it is a good indicator of speculative sentiment. The chart shows that Tesla has lost momentum since the reversal day. Pay close attention to the scale on the right hand side of the chart. Tesla stock reached a high of $1,794.99 but has since moved down to $1,550.30 (shown in red background on the scale) as of this writing.  This is a big move.
  • The third pane on the chart shows Amazon (AMZN) stock. Amazon has been the poster child of the stocks benefiting from coronavirus. Amazon stock has moved since the reversal day from $3,344.29 to 2,991.12 as of this writing. This is a big move and shows loss of momentum just like Tesla stock.
  • The fourth pane of the chart shows Netflix (NFLX) stock. Netflix stock has been the beneficiary of people staying at home watching more video.   Netflix stock has moved down since the reversal day from $575.37 to $490.89. Again this is a big move showing loss of momentum.
  • Similar to Tesla, Amazon and Netflix, momentum loss since the reversal date is evident in momo (momentum) crowds’ favorite stocks such Zoom Video (ZM), Fastly (FSLY), Peloton (PTON) and DocuSign (DOCU).
  • Among popular tech stocks, Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT) as also showing loss of momentum but to a lesser degree. Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) and Facebook (FB) have been more resilient to momentum loss.
  • Pane five of the chart shows Moderna (MRNA) and pane six shows AstraZeneca (AZN). These are coronavirus vaccine stocks. They have gained momentum during the same period as shown on the chart.
  • Not shown on the chart are vaccine stocks Pfizer (PFE), BioNTech (BNTX), Novavax (NVAX) and Inovio Pharmaceuticals (INO). These stocks have also gained momentum.

What Does It Mean?

The conclusion to be drawn from investor behavior so far is that popular stocks are stretched to the upside.  When there is good news about the vaccine, popular stocks may lose more momentum and fall over a period of time. Don’t let the initial reaction fool you. Initially money will flow into futures and ETFs spiking all stocks up. Main Street stocks that have been hurt may benefit.  These are the stocks in our 23 stock Coronavirus Portfolio. Examples include Carnival Cruise (CCL), American Airlines (AAL) and Cheese Cake Factory (CAKE).  As a note of caution, these stocks should be bought only on dips in the buy zones, when signals are given or on other news in a properly diversified portfolio.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is buying stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is mostly neutral but selectively selling.

Gold

The momo crowd is buying gold in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive.

The momo crowd is aggressively buying silver in the early trade. Silver has broken above $20.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is buying oil.  Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see oil ratings.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is buying marijuana stocks in the early trade. Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral but can swing either way based on the vaccine and stimulus rumors.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is   stronger.

Gold futures are at $1819, silver futures are at $20.12, and oil futures are $40.49.

S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 3228, 3278 and 3320: support levels are 3182, 3155 and 3124.

DJIA futures are up 6 points.

 

WHAT TO DO NOW

Looking ahead and not only in the rear view mirror, consider continuing to hold existing core portfolio positions.  Based on individual risk preference, consider holding cash or treasury bills 29% – 37% and short to medium-term hedges of  3% – 8% and short term hedges of 3% – 10%.

 

A knowledgeable investor would have turned $100,000 into over $1,000,000 with the help from The Arora Report. NOW YOU TOO CAN ALSO SPECTACULARLY SUCCEED AT MEETING YOUR GOALS WITH THE HELP OF THE ARORA REPORT. You are receiving less than 2% of the content from our paid services. …TO RECEIVE REMAINING 98% INCLUDING MANY ATTRACTIVE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES, TAKE A FREE TRIAL TO PAID SERVICES.

Please click here to take advantage of a FREE  30 day trial.

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