(The Weekly Digest reproduces the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers. )
NASDAQ TOPS DOT COM HIGH, MARKET CONTINUES TO SHRUG OFF BAD EARNINGS
Nasdaq finally closed above dot com high. This will bring more buying from the momo crowd.
Earnings continue to be worse than the consensus. However the market is shrugging weak parts of earnings off. Stocks run up on short squeezes after they report weak earnings; of course many gurus and media draw their headlines from the stock price movement and not from a thorough analysis. this behavior is continuing to exaggerate up moves and giving an impression that earnings are better than what they really are.
There is new optimism about Greece causing euro to go higher.
Durable Goods Orders x-transport came at -0.2% vs. +0.4% consensus. Gold tried to rally on this news but was slammed by Smart Money.
Oil is weak.
Interest rates are range bound.
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral.
Gold futures are at $1187, silver futures are at $15.82, and oil futures are $57.16.
S&P 500 resistance level is 2150; support levels are 2063, 2038, and 2017.
DJIA futures are up 14 points.
WEAK DATA FROM CHINA AND MIXED EARNINGS
Flash PMI from China came at 49.2 vs. 49.6 consensus, from Japan 49.7 vs. 50.8 consensus, also lower than expected PMIs in Europe.
Overall earnings reported after the close yesterday and this morning are disappointing.
Interestingly interest rates are holding their gains. This is one of the first indications that many market participants do not expect weaker data to change the Fed’s course to raise rates.
Smart Money was aggressively selling gold yesterday morning. Gold is approaching a major support in the area of $1178 to $1182.
Oil is range bound.
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative.
Gold futures are at $1187, silver futures are at $15.81, and oil futures are $56.73.
S&P 500 resistance level is 2150 ; support levels are 2063, 2038, and 2017.
DJIA futures are down 65 points.
POSITIVE REACTION TO NOT-SO-GOOD EARNINGS
Overall earnings released yesterday after the close and this morning are worse than the consensus, but market is reacting positively. This is important because consensus estimates have already been significantly lowered recently compared to what they were at the beginning of the year. This is certainly not good news for investors. However from a short-term trading perspective, when the market reacts positively to poor earnings, typically that market goes up.
There are many, many more earnings the rest of this week and next week. Let us not reach any conclusions until we see how the market reacts to these upcoming earnings.
Gold is repeating the pattern from yesterday, early aggressive buying by North American momo crowd, getting slammed by the Smart Money.
API oil inventories came much larger than the consensus. We will carefully analyze DOE oil inventory data to be released at 10:30 am ET this morning.
Interest rates are ticking up.
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral.
Gold futures are at $1196, silver futures are at $15.97, and oil futures are $56.56.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2100 and 2150; support levels are 2063, 2038, and 2017.
DJIA futures are up 28 points.
EARNINGS SEASON IN FULL SWING
Earnings season is in full swing. About 25% of S&P 500 companies will report earnings this week. So far the earning reports are mixed.
Momentum from yesterday carried into the overseas markets and now back to New York.
The momo crowd aggressively bought gold this morning and pushed it over $1200 but then got slammed by selling from the Smart Money.
Oil and interest rates are range bound.
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is positive.
Gold futures are at $1198, silver futures are at $16.14, and oil futures are $57.72.
S&P 500 resistance level is 2150; support levels are 2063, 2038, and 2017.
DJIA futures are up 92 points.
PBOC ACTION STOPS THE SLIDE IN WORLD MARKETS
Over the weekend, People’s Bank of China cut banks’ reserve ratio requirement. This aggressive move reflects serious concern on the part of the Chinese government about the slowing economy.
It is not news to investors that these days stocks often jump on intervention by central banks on worries about weak economy.
Chinese action has stopped slide in stock markets worldwide. It has even boosted oil prices. Interestingly gold ,which often rises on monetary easing, has been hit with selling over the last couple of hours.
Greece remains on the forefront.
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is positive.
Gold futures are at $1196, silver futures are at $16.04, and oil futures are $55.33.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2100 and 2150; support levels are 2063, 2038, and 2017.
DJIA futures are 117 points.
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