WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: HERE IS HOW TO NAVIGATE THE STOCK MARKET, GOLD AND OIL $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBT $USO

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WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: HERE IS HOW TO NAVIGATE THE STOCK MARKET, GOLD AND OIL $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBT $USO

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section What To Do Now.

BATTLE OVER GILEAD DRUG, OPTIMISM OVER PPP MONEY, DURABLE GOODS PLUNGE

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Battle Over Gilead Drug

A battle is raging among experts over Gilead (GILD) drug.  Chinese study showed no benefit in a 237 patient trial.  GILD says that the study was underpowered.  In plain English, it means that there were not enough patients.

After reviewing opinions of experts on both sides, the best that can be said is that the probability of the success of the drug is about 50%.  Even if the drug is successful, it is not going to be a great drug for coronavirus.  The probability is high that in the event of success, the only reason it will be used is because there is nothing better. For this reason, based on the data available now, investors are too optimistic.

New data will be released from a trial in severe patients later this month and will provide better answers.  More data is due in May.

Optimism Over PPP

Yesterday, the House authorized more money for Payroll Protection Program.  This morning bulls are running, encouraged by the added stimulus.

JC Penny Bankruptcy

JCP is in advanced talks for filing bankruptcy.  Experts are warning that an avalanche of bankruptcies is coming.  Is the stock market paying attention? The answer is ‘No’.  The main thing that is driving the stock market now is not the facts, not the analysis but momentum and hope. Everybody wants ‘hope’ to work out but hope is not a good investment strategy.

Durable Goods

Durable Goods Orders plunged -14.4% vs. -10% consensus.   Durable Goods Ex-trans came at -0.2% vs. -4.0%.  There is an interesting dichotomy here worth watching.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is buying stocks in the early trade. Smart money is inactive.

Gold

The momo crowd is buying gold in the early trade. Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is buying oil in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see oil ratings.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is buying marijuana stocks in the early trade. Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

Mexican shares are tracing a continuation diamond. This is bearish. ETF of interest is EWW.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral but can easily swing either way. Expect the market to open higher. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is slightly weaker.

Gold futures are at $1756, silver futures are at $15.51, and oil futures are $17.29.

S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 2870, 2924 and 3000: support levels are 2785, 2714 and 2653.

DJIA futures are up 198 points

INCREDIBLE! WITH MILLIONS UNEMPLOYED – WHO IS BUYING THE STOCK MARKET GONE BONKERS?

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Jobless Claims

Due to coronavirus shutdowns, unemployment continues to rise. Initial Jobless Claims came at 4.427 million vs. 4.0 million consensuses. Weekly continuing claims came at 15.976 million.

In this stock market the fashion is to consider devastating bad numbers like the jobless claims above  as positive for the stock market.

Who Is Buying

The question I am being most asked is, “Who is buying this stock market?” Many investors believe the stock market has gone bonkers. These investors think that the stock market has become totally divorced from the reality on the main street. I agree that the stock market is not reflecting the present economy. There are many reasons for it but details will be the subject of a future column. Let’s discuss who is buying with the help of a chart.

The Chart

Please click here for annotated chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) which represents popular stock market index Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).

Note the following:

  • The whole system is set up for investors to buy stocks and keep thein in stocks.
  • The chart shows that until last week about 65% of the rise in the stock market was short squeeze related. There are several elements to this rise that all investors should become familiar with. These elements are described in detail in a prior post.
  • Start out with the premise that even if unemployment reaches 20%, 80% of the people are still employed.
  • A majority of the people who are losing their jobs are lower paid people in service sectors. These people typically do not invest in the stock market as they generally do not have the resources to invest.
  • People who generally invest in the stock market still have their jobs. They are still contributing to their 401(k)s.
  • The chart shows a sharp drop that touched the upper band of the ‘mother of support zones’ and a quick rebound to the bottom band of the resistance zone. History tells us that quick market moves do not change the behavior of investors, money managers and institutions alike.
  • History tells us that it takes prolonged pain to change human behavior. In the coronavirus crisis, the pain has not been prolonged for stock market investors.
  • There is considerable anecdotal evidence that prudent investors have become very cautious but prudent investors represent only a small part of investors in general.
  • Some prudent investors such as money managers often have no choice but to hold their nose and buy stocks in a rising market. Many money managers are expected to beat their benchmark indexes. For such money managers, falling too far behind is career suicide.
  • Many investors feel they have legitimate reasons to buy – monetary stimulus, fiscal stimulus, pent up demand and looking past the coronavirus looking for a cure and vaccine.
  • In general, when a bad jobs report comes out, investors buy because they believe the overhang has been lifted.
  • The benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX) is concentrated in Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN) and Facebook (FB). Investors believe these stocks are safe along with semiconductor stocks such as AMD (AMD), Intel (INTC) and Micron (MU). Investors have blinders on and refuse to see the risks in these stocks.
  • There is a strike of sellers.
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Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks after the release of the devastating jobless claims. Smart money is inactive.

Gold

The momo crowd is aggressively buying gold in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive.

For new subscribers, the gold momo (momentum)  crowd is often a different crowd from the stock market momo crowd.  The stock momo crowd believes things are getting better.  Gold momo crowd believes things are getting worse.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is aggressively buying oil in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see oil ratings.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is buying marijuana stocks in the early trade. Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral and can easily swing either way. Expect the market to open higher.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is slightly stronger.

Gold futures are at $1744, silver futures are at $15.54, and oil futures are $16.75.

S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 2870, 2924 and  3000: support levels are  2785, 2714 and 2653.

DJIA futures are up 67 points

A REPORT ON AIR CONDITIONING AIDING CORONAVIRUS SPREAD SHOWS PERILS AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR INVESTORS

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Not enough is known about coronavirus at this time and there is a divergence of opinions. The result is an environment in the stock market that is creating both perils and opportunities for investors.

Many important pieces of data that affect the stock market are missed by the mainstream media and the momo crowd jumps on whatever is highlighted on the media. An example on the positive side is the data from Boston. We have previously written about it.  An example on the negative side is a new report that air conditioning aids in spreading coronavirus. This is only a limited amount of data but investors should not dismiss it. Most new pieces of information start with a small amount of data. For example, back in November 2019, there was a small amount of data about spread of a new mysterious virus in China that I was paying serious attention to and taking into account in our stock market models. At that time, most stock market analysts were not aware of the mysterious new virus. The new limited data on air conditioning aiding the spread of coronavirus can potentially be a huge problem as the economy is beginning to open up but also imagine the opportunities to solve the problem. Let’s explore with the help of a chart.

The chart

Please click here for an annotated chart of the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) that represents popular stock market index Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).

Note the following:

  • The most important take away from the chart at this time is that the stock market is at the lower band of the resistance zone.
  • Historically, it is not a good set up to buy the stock market when it is at the lower band of the resistance zone.
  • The chart shows the top support zone. In theory, it would be best to commence buying on a pullback to the support zone or on a stock market break above the resistance zone.
  • One of the perils right now is in the popular stocks that have moved up. A good example is Netflix (NFLX). Netflix has had a strong up move because people are staying home and are binge watching Netflix. However investors ought to look at the other side as the economy opens up. When the economy opens up less people will be staying home and there will be less watching of Netflix. Barring other developments, Netflix stock may come back down to earth, especially in view of the strong success of Disney’s (DIS) streaming channel.
  • In a very short time frame, there is a glimpse of what can happen to stocks like Netflix. The Arora Report gave a signal to short sell Netflix when it traded at $480 in the aftermarket, following its earnings release. The premise behind the signal was that investors were excited about good earnings but were not thinking of what happens after the economy opens. As a stroke of luck, many other investors realized the issue and sold Netflix and we were able to give a signal to take profits by buying-to-cover Netflix stock at $424 a very short time later.
  • A similar problem to Netflix is emerging in popular stocks such as Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Zoom Video (ZM), Teladoc (TDOC) and Slack (WORK).
  • On the flip side there are positive implications of the economy opening up for stocks of Apple (AAPL), Facebook (FB), Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) and AMD (AMD).
  • Innovation is alive and well. Many opportunities are emerging in stocks that most investors have never heard of.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive.

Gold

The momo crowd is aggressively buying gold in the early trade. Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is buying oil. Oil is showing signs of stabilization.  Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see oil ratings.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is buying marijuana stocks in the early trade. Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral but can quickly turn either way. Expect the market to open higher. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking  up and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is  weaker.

Gold futures are at $1725, silver futures are at $15.17, and oil futures are $13.72.

S&P 500 futures resistance levels are  2785, 2870 and  2924: support levels are  2714, 2653 and 2600.

DJIA futures are up 391 points

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OIL ROUT, FREE $5500 PAYCHECK PLUS FREE RENT MAY BE AHEAD – HOW WILL THE STOCK MARKET REACT?

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

The Insanity

There are two bills pending in the Congress. One would provide free rent and mortgages during the coronavirus emergency. The other would provide a monthly check of $2,000 for those over the age of 16 and $5500 monthly check to a family with three children. Depending upon how this is done, all of this money may be tax free. My heart goes out to those who have been adversely affected by coronavirus but who would have thought that in the capitalist bastion of the world, there would be such proposals in the United States Congress.

In older days when our leaders did not know better, someone would have asked, “How were we going to pay for all of this?” Of course now our leaders have become smarter – they have learned the magic trick of just having the Fed print more money.

Here is the key question for stock market investors, “How will all of the existing and potential new government largesse affect the stock market?” Let’s explore with the help of two charts.

Two Chart

Please click here for an annotated chart of the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) that represents popular stock market index Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).

Please click here for an annotated chart of Federal Reserve assets.

Note the following:

  • The first chart is a monthly chart giving the long term perspective to stock market investors. This chart should be the starting point of all analysis.
  • The first chart shows that on January 22, 2020, The Arora Report called the potential stock market drop ahead due to coronavirus. The call was repeated several times as investors continued to buy stocks until February 19, 2020 stock market top – this advanced warning gave investors plenty of time to protect themselves.
  • The first chart shows that the stock market has touched the low band of the resistance zone.
  • Investors have been writing saying they are struck by the simple fact that the stock market touched the top band of ‘mother of support zones’ shown on the first chart and reversed to the upside. The mother of support zones was given in advance before the stock market drop.
  • The second chart shows the massive rise in the Federal Reserve’s assets.
  • Both charts together show that when the Federal Reserve started adding more liquidity for repos, that the stock market took off in October 2019 for a straight up run to February 19, 2020.
  • The second chart shows the massive rise in Federal Reserve assets due to money printing to finance the government largesse to cope with coronavirus. The first chart shows the stock market rally.

A Scenario

If the prevailing trends continue and there is no change in prevailing wisdom, in the short term stock market will likely go up on new government programs. This may start a second leg of a short squeeze. The second leg of short squeeze may carry the stock market to new highs. This will be a gift for President Trump going into November election. Wall Street loves Trump. If Trump wins in a landslide, imagine how high the stock market can go. I will write more on this prevailing insanity in a future column.

The Hate Mail

Before sending me hate mail, remember the following:

  • Back in 2016, when Wall Street had anointed Hilary Clinton as the next President, The Arora Report was one of the very few who correctly called Trump’s election. After Trump’s election, when almost universally analysts were calling for a big drop in the stock market, the Arora Report gave an aggressive buy signal which turned out to be spot on.
  • When the stock market was trading with Dow Jones DJIA in the range of 16,000, The Arora Report gave a target of 30,000. Subsequently, the call was repeated several times and the time frame for Dow Jones Industrial Average was given in Trump’s first term.
  • When the stock market rose, Dow Jones Industrial Average approached 30,000, The Arora Report never raised its target over 30,000 at a time when almost everyone was giving higher targets.
  • This stock market is controlled by the momo crowd. The momo crowd does not do deep analysis.
  • When the Fed prints more money, some of it ends up in the stock market.
  • The government claims that there is no inflation and therefore it is fine to print more money. Well, there is inflation in the stock market. Stock prices have quadrupled since the low of 2008.

Risks Remain

Significant risks remain in the stock market both to the upside and the downside. At this time, all Arora Portfolios are well protected and the plan is to continue with the logical framework of protection bands, strategic buying when stocks and ETFs fall into the buy zones and tactical decisions to nibble when the signals are given. Those who are not at comfortable points in the protection bands may consider selling in to this rally. Unless a new leg of short squeeze starts, a medical breakthrough occurs or more government programs take hold, this stock market is primed to fall.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively selling stocks. Smart money is inactive.

Gold

The momo crowd is aggressively selling gold.  Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

Oil is experiencing another rout.  Even June contract is falling.  The momo crowd is aggressively selling oil.  Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see oil ratings.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is buying marijuana stocks. Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

Gold futures are at $1673, silver futures are at $14.62, and oil futures are $14.18.

S&P 500 futures resistance levels are  2785, 2870 and 2924: support levels are 2714, 2653 and  2600.

DJIA futures are down 529  points

ALL STOCK MARKET INVESTORS SHOULD PAY ATTENTION TO THIS SHOCKING NEW DATA FROM BOSTON

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Shocking Data From Boston

All investors should pay attention to the new coronavirus data from Boston. The data goes against prevailing wisdom.

In Boston’s Pine Street Inn, homeless shelter, 397 people were tested for coronavirus. 146 people tested positive but no one had any symptoms. The Center for Disease Control is looking into the data. As testing becomes more widespread, we will shortly know if this data is an anomaly or a true indication of what is really happening in the population.

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There are both positive and negative implications of this data for the stock market investors that I will discuss later in this column. The main take away for stock market investors is that a lot is still unknown about coronavirus. Until more is known, stock market investors may consider following the simple principle that I have learned in my over 30 years in the markets – neither be a bull nor a bear. Investors ought to consider doing scenario analysis and using probabilities to follow a framework that has proven itself to protect stock market investors and also outperform the stock market. Let’s explore with the help of two charts.

Two Charts

Please click here for an annotated chart of the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA) that represents popular stock market index Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA).

Please click here for an annotated chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) that represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

  • The first chart is a monthly chart giving the long term perspective to stock market investors. This chart should be the starting point of all analysis.
  • The second chart is a daily chart to give a short term perspective to stock market investors.
  • The first chart shows that on January 22, 2020, The Arora Report called the potential stock market drop ahead due to coronavirus. The call was repeated several times as investors continued to buy stocks until February 19, 2020 stock market top – this advanced warning gave investors plenty of time to protect themselves.
  • Investors have been writing saying they are struck by the simple fact that the stock market touched the top band of ‘mother of support zones’ shown on the first chart and reversed to the upside. The mother of support zones was given in advance before the stock market drop.
  • The first chart shows that 65% of the rally in the stock market is short squeeze related.
  • The first chart shows that the short squeeze had mostly exhausted itself last week and in the absence of more good news, the stock market would have pulled back.
  • The first chart shows that the good news about Gilead’s (GILD) remdesivir provided a ray of hope and stopped the pending downward pressure due to short squeeze exhausting itself in its tracks.
  • The second chart shows that RSI is overbought. This means that the market is vulnerable to the downside.
  • The second chart shows the resistance zone.

Boston Data Implications

If Boston data turns out not to be an anomaly, there are several implications for stock market investors.

  • The mortality rate may be significantly lower than the prevailing wisdom.
  • A significantly higher number of people may already be infected compared to the prevailing wisdom.
  • Herd immunity to coronavirus may be closer than generally believed.
  • There may be significantly more carriers of the coronavirus than the prevailing wisdom and it may be more difficult to protect the vulnerable population.

Risks Remain

Significant risks remain in the stock market both to the upside and the downside. The very positive sentiment in popular stocks such as Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), AMD (AMD) and Tesla (TSLA) is bordering on a contrary ‘sell’ signal. The only rational logical way for stock market investors is to follow Arora’s third Law of Trading and Investing: Making investing and trading decisions based on probabilities is the only realistic and profitable approach.

A Logical Framework For Investors To Follow

Start with the protection bands. Depending upon where you belong in the protection bands, separate out strategic decisions from tactical decision for buying and selling in the stock market. If you meet the protection band criteria strategically buy stocks and ETFs that fall into the buy zones. If you do not meet the protection criteria, do some selling into the strength. Make tactical decisions by nibbling when the signals are given.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo has been acting like a yo-yo since futures opened on Sunday evening. The momo crowd is aggressively selling as of this writing.

Smart money is inactive.

Gold

The momo crowd was selling gold yesterday and earlier this morning. As stock futures dropped, money started flowing in to gold and the momo crowd started buying gold.

Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

Oil is undergoing shenanigans related to rollover of futures contracts. The May contract is being aggressively sold as futures are being rolled over to June contracts. On Friday, the June contract held up but it is now succumbing to downward pressure as the May contract is crashing. The issue is that there is simply too much oil in Cushing, Oklahoma.  WTI contract is benchmarked to Cushing.

Smart money is inactive.

For longer term, please see oil ratings.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is buying marijuana stocks.

Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

Gold futures are at $1698, silver futures are at $15.39, and oil futures are $21.97.

S&P 500 futures resistance levels are  2870, 2924 and 3000: support levels are 2785, 2714 and 2653.

DJIA futures are down 486 points

WHAT TO DO NOW

Looking ahead and not only in the rear view mirror, consider continuing to hold existing core portfolio positions.  Based on individual risk preference, consider holding cash or treasury bills 34% – 44% and short to medium-term hedges of  3% – 15% and short term hedges of 8% – 20%.

 

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