WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: HOW LONG WILL STOCK MARKET IGNORE CRASHING COMMODITIES AND STRONGER DOLLAR? $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBT $USO

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section What To Do Now.

TRUMP READY TO IMPOSE TARIFFS ON $500 BILLION OF CHINESE GOODS

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Tariffs On $500 Billion Of Chinese Goods

Trump appears ready to impose tariffs on $500 billion of Chinese goods.

The consensus in the market has been that Trump would not go this far.  Trump has often said things as negotiating tactics and not followed through.  There is no way to know what will actually happen.  For this reason it is important to pay attention to the ‘What To Do Now’ section below.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

Earlier today the momo crowd was aggressively buying the dip in the market. However, after Trump’s statement on trade, the market took a leg down and the momo crowd started selling aggressively.  The momo crowd has been whipsawed and sustained losses.  It will be interesting to see what the momo crowd does the rest of the day.

The smart money lightly sold throughout yesterday but is inactive this morning.

Dollar

Trump’s statement caused the dollar to weaken.

Gold

Gold is being bought on the weaker dollar.

Oil

Oil is being bought on the weaker dollar.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative.

Money is moving into bonds causing bonds to tick up and interest rates to tick down.

Gold futures are at $1230, silver futures are at $16.43, and oil futures are $68.44

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2800, 2840 and 2860; support levels are 2765, 2740 and 2700.

DJIA futures are down 120 points.

WILL STOCK MARKET IGNORE TUMBLE IN COMMODITIES AND CHINA’S YUAN ON STRONGER DOLLAR?

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Stronger Dollar

The dollar has moved up again this morning.

China’s currency yuan has tumbled to a one-year low.  This gives China an advantage in its exports to the United States.

Commodities are tumbling on  a stronger dollar.  Commodities are priced in dollars.  When the dollar gets stronger, commodities get weaker.

Here is the key question, “Will the stock market ignore the tumble in commodities and the yuan?”  Historically the stock market has not ignored such developments but often there is a delay in a stock market reaction.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd continues to buy stocks in the early trade.  The smart money is lightly selling.

Gold

Gold is tumbling on a stronger dollar.

Oil

Oil is beginning to experience a short squeeze driving it to the upside.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative.

Interest rates are ticking up bonds are ticking down.

Gold futures are at $1214, silver futures are at $15.26, and oil futures are $67.47.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2840, 2860 and 2918; support levels are 2800, 2765 and 2740.

DJIA futures are down 67  points.

STOCKS TAKE CUE FROM POWELL, BEIGE BOOK AHEAD

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Stocks Take Cue From Powell

Powell was positive on the economy in his testimony in front of the Senate.   Investors took cue from Powell’s testimony and bought stocks. Powell will testify in front of the House today.

Beige Book

The Fed will release its Beige Book at 2:00 pm.  This may be a market moving event.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks.  The smart money is inactive.

Gold

The momo crowd has been aggressively selling gold.  The smart money is inactive.

A stronger dollar is putting pressure on gold.

Oil

Oil continues to fall.  The latest trigger was bearish API inventory data.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral but can quickly move in either direction.

Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

Gold futures are at $1224, silver futures are at $15.45, and oil futures are $66.57.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2840, 2860 and 2918; support levels are 2800, 2765 and 2741.

DJIA futures are up 22  points.

THE FED CHAIR TESTIMONY AHEAD

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Fed Chair Testimony

The Fed Chairman Powell will testify in front of the Senate Banking Committee starting at 10:00 am ET.  His answers to questions may be market moving.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is lightly buying stocks especially high beta popular tech stocks.  The smart money is lightly selling stocks especially high beta popular tech stocks.

Industrial Production

Industrial Production came at 0.6% vs. 0.5% consensus.

Capacity Utilization came at 77.9% vs. 78% consensus.

Gold

Gold is seeing light selling on a stronger dollar.

Oil

The momo crowd is suffering huge losses in oil.  The momo crowd continued to be bullish and continued to aggressively buy oil until recently.  Now the momo crowd is trapped as oil has fallen substantially.

So far the recent downgrade of oil by The Arora Report has proven spot on.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral.

Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are ticking up.

Gold futures are at $1238, silver futures are at $15.71, and oil futures are $68.12.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2800, 2840 and 2860; support levels are 2765, 2740 and 2700.

DJIA futures are down 24  points.

STRONG RETAIL SALES, MOMO BUYS STOCKS, OIL SLUMPS ON SAUDI MOVE

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Strong Retail Sales

The U. S. economy is about 70% consumer based.  For this reason it is important for investors to pay attention to retail sales. Retail Sales Ex-auto came at 0.4% vs. 0.3% consensus.  We do not include auto sales in our models because they are too volatile and often lead to wrong conclusions.  The data shows that the U. S. consumer continues to spend and that is good for the stock market.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks in early trade.  The smart money is inactive.  The momo crowd is especially buying high beta popular stocks.

Gold

Gold is in a minor support zone.  Trading is listless.

Oil

Saudi Arabia plans extra oil output for some Asian clients.  This is putting pressure on oil.  WTI oil has fallen below $70.

We will do a separate post.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral but can easily swing either way.

The dollar is weaker against most currencies with the exception of the yen.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.

Gold futures are at $1242, silver futures are at $16.81, and oil futures are $69.47.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2840, 2860 and 2918; support levels are 2800, 2765 and 2740.

DJIA futures are up 17 points.

WHAT TO DO NOW

Looking ahead and not only in the rear view mirror, consider continuing to hold existing core portfolio positions.  Based on individual risk preference, consider holding cash or treasury bills 20% – 30% and short to medium-term hedges of  10% – 15% and very short term hedges of 10%.

 

A knowledgeable investor would have turned $100,000 into over $1,000,000 with the help from The Arora Report. NOW YOU TOO CAN ALSO SPECTACULARLY SUCCEED AT MEETING YOUR GOALS WITH THE HELP OF THE ARORA REPORT. You are receiving less than 2% of the content from our paid services. …TO RECEIVE REMAINING 98% INCLUDING MANY ATTRACTIVE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES, TAKE A FREE TRIAL TO PAID SERVICES.

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