By Nigam Arora
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Rising Oil And Yields
Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
- The chart shows the stock market is pulling back in the early trade.
- RSI on the chart shows the stock market can go lower.
- The chart shows zone 1, which will act as support if there is a pullback.
- The chart shows the March 30 low occurred right at the low band of the zone 3 (support), which The Arora Report provided to members well in advance.
- The chart shows the Arora signal to raise cash and hedges. The chart also shows that various Arora signals related to the Iran war have been very accurate.
- As a member of The Arora Report, you have been ahead of the curve. We previously wrote that high oil and high yields are inconsistent with the stock market near highs.
- We have also previously shared with you that there are two manias driving the stock market higher.
- Semiconductor mania
- Call option mania
- In the early trade, rising oil and yields are getting in the way of the dual manias, in spite of continued momo crowd buying.
- Today is option expiration. Gamma has been positive – without this the stock market would have been down much more in the early trade. For those who want next level information, listen to the podcast in Arora Ambassador Club titled “MARKET MECHANICS: IMPACT OF DEALERS’ GAMMA POSITION CHANGE ON THE STOCK MARKET.”
- This morning, oil is rising for two reasons:
- Statements at the end of President Trump’s visit to China are positive and are designed to feel good for both countries. In The Arora Report analysis, these statements fall short of the market’s expectations regarding Iran.
- In a BRICS summit in India, India tried hard to bridge the gap about Iran that would have helped to make Iranian oil flow again. The effort failed. Iran was in attendance.
- Rising oil is driving fears of inflation. This, in turn, is causing yields to go higher.
- As a heads up, if yields and oil continue to go higher, the adaptive ZYX Asset Allocation Model with inputs in ten categories will likely trigger another increase in the Arora Protection Band.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Microsoft (MSFT).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Meta (META), Alphabet (GOOG), Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** stocks in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** gold in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** oil in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.
The dollar is stronger.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 7434 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7500, 7700, and 7900 : support levels are 7200, 7000, and 6780.
DJIA futures are down 437 points.
Gold futures are at $4553, silver futures are at $77.82, and oil futures are at $99.94.
Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. The proprietary Arora Protection Band from The Arora Report is very popular. The Arora Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
Traditional 60/40 Portfolio
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
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Nigam Arora
Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.
