(The Weekly Digest reproduces the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers. )
INFLECTION POINT WHEN THE MARKETS ARE CLOSED
Tomorrow is Good Friday. Stock market will be closed. At 8:30 am ET, Department of Labor will release the Employment Report. There is significant potential for this report to be an inflection point for stocks, bonds, and gold. Wall Street is positioned for slightly weaker data. If the data is much weaker or slightly stronger, the stock market will have good reasons to go up.
S&P 500 futures will be open and trade for 45 minutes after the release of the report. Futures will provide an early indication of market reaction to the report.
Gold market is positioned for a very weak report. If the data is stronger, expect gold to fall; if the data is much weaker gold can rocket.
Bond market is positioned for slightly weaker data. If the data is strong, speculation of a rate increase by the Fed has the potential to drive interest rates much higher.
Today’s session will have two major forces, market participants squaring positions to reduce risk and any news from Switzerland on Iran talks.
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral.
Gold futures are at $1203, silver futures are at $16.76, and oil futures are $49.03.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2063, 2100, and 2150; support levels are 2038, 2017, and 2000.
DJIA futures are down 20 points.
SICK ADP DATA ADDS TO JITTERS
ADP Employment Data came at 189K vs. 225K consensus. The data is adding to the jitters from Iran nuclear talks, Greece, Nigeria election results, slowing growth in China and the way markets traded yesterday afternoon.
Of note is that last night S&P 500 futures fell about 1% in a matter of minutes. There was a highly motivated large seller. After midnight the futures recovered. Anytime such an event happens, this is the question to be asked, “Did this large motivated seller know something that we do not know?”
The momo crowd has aggressively bought gold on ADP data.
Oil is volatile based on the rumors coming from Switzerland regarding Iran talks.
Interest rates have fallen after the ADP data.
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral.
Gold futures are at $1192, silver futures are at $16.66, and oil futures are $47.76.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2063, 2100, and 2150; support levels are 2038, 2017, and 2000.
DJIA futures are down 43 points.
IRAN NUCLEAR DEADLINE, GREEK FUNDING AND NIGERIAN ELECTIONS IN THE FOREFRONT
Today is a self-imposed deadline to reach an agreement with Iran on its nuclear activities. If an agreement is reached, oil, gold, and silver should fall; if no agreement is reached expect oil and gold to spike up.
Yesterday the State Department said that there was a 50/50 change of reaching an agreement with Iran. In our analysis, the probability is about 65% to reach an agreement.
It is the last day of the quarter, window dressing will continue.
Greek funding issues are back in the forefront.
Nigeria is a major oil-producing country and the largest democracy in West Africa. Election marred by violence and glitches. The current president seems to be behind in early election results.
After an overnight drubbing, the momo crowd is aggressively buying gold and silver. This time the momo crowd is also buying oil.
Interest rates are range bound.
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative.
Gold futures are at $1186, silver futures are at $16.66, and oil futures are $47.64.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2100 and 2150; support levels are 2038, 2017, and 2000.
DJIA futures are down 87 points.
WINDOW DRESSING IS THE MAIN INFLUENCE
Expect significant buying in stocks at the open, in part because of window dressing.
Gold has fallen decisively below $1200.
Oil continues its downward trend as investors begin to develop a better understanding of Yemen that we shared with you last week.
Interest rates are range bound.
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is positive.
Gold futures are at $1183, silver futures are at $16.65, and oil futures are $48.43.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2063, 2100, and 2150; support levels are 2038, 2017, and 2000.
DJIA futures are up 10 points.
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