WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: MARKET IS VULNERABLE TO A CORRECTION

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(The Weekly Digest reproduces the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers.)

THE U.S. GDP DISAPPOINTS

April 27, 2112

The U.S. GDP grew by 2.2% vs 2.5% consensus. This is a continuation of the resent spate of weaker than expected economic numbers.

Prices in Spain deepens as unemployment reaches almost 25%.

Our models continue to show a 65% probability of a correction.
Gold futures are at $1659, silver futures are at $31.10, and oil futures are $104.23.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 1410, 1415, and 1424; support levels are 1380, 1368, and 1358.

DJIA futures are down 2 points.

EUROPEAN CONFIDENCE FALLS TO NOVEMBER 2009 LEVELS

April 26, 2012

European confidence index falls.  Here is the data:

  • Economic confidence 92.8, est. 94.2 (prior 94.4)
  • Industrial confidence -9.0, est. -7.0 (prior -7.2)
  • Services confidence -2.4, est. -0.5% (prior -0.3)
  • Final consumer -19.9 (initial -19.8)
  • Business Climate Indicator -0.52, est -0.30 (prior -0.30)

Italian and Spanish interest rates are rising.

Gold and silver are undergoing massive short squeeze after gold failed to break the support at $1625 and silver at $30.00.

Gold futures are at $1653, silver futures are at $30.81, and oil futures are $104.07.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 1400, 1410, and 1424; support levels are 1380, 1368, and 1358.

DJIA futures are down 36 points.

OPTIMISM FROM AAPL EARNINGS, CAUTION AHEAD OF THE FED STATEMENT

April 25, 2012

There is no shortage of optimism this morning stemming from blow out AAPL earnings.

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The two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will end today. The Fed will announce its official policy action at 12:30 pm EST. In the afternoon, the Fed will release economic projections and Chairman Bernanke will conduct a press conference.

Some experts speculate that this is the Feds last opportunity in 2012 to announce further monetary easing. Such experts think that anything the Fed does the rest of the year will be considered too political in view of the U.S. elections in November.
Gold futures are at $1640, silver futures are at $30.81, and oil futures are $103.46.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 1380, 1400, and 1410; support levels are 1368, 1358, and 1352.

DJIA futures are up 39 points.

NICE BOUNCE BUT APPLE SPOILS THE PARTY

April 24,2012

Markets were showing a nice bounce this morning when a comment on AAPL started a downdraft.  As of this writing, AAPL has fallen to $557.50 in the premarket.  AAPL is falling on comments by a broker that the data from T and VZ indicates that AAPL may not meet its guidance when it reports earnings after the close.  There are also competing comments out defending AAPL.

Gold futures are at $4616, silver futures are at $31.03, and oil futures are $103.72.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 1368, 1380, and 1400; support levels are 1358, 1352, and 1348.

DJIA futures are up 28 points.

MARKET IS VULNERABLE TO A CORRECTION

April 23, 2012

For weeks we have been writing that there is a 65% probability of a correction.  When  markets are in a corrective state, the news simply becomes an excuse.

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Today is no exception.  Markets are lower because of news from France and Netherlands.

In France, socialist Francois Hollande pulled ahead of incumbent President Nicholas Sarkozy in the first round of presidential election.  Many gurus are giving French election result as a reason for the downdraft.  The fact is that markets have known for weeks that Hollande was ahead in opinion polls.   It turns out that in the actual election lead by Hollande is smaller than some opinion polls.

The government in Netherlands is near collapse as the political parties fail to reach an agreement on austerity measures.

We invite our subscribers in France and Netherlands to email us their perceptions as to what was known and what is new.

Gold and silver momo crowd continues its behavior of selling on bad news and buying on good news.  The point is the traditional role of gold and silver as a hedge against bad news is in question because of the dominance of the momo crowd in these markets.

Gold futures are at $1625, silver futures are at $30.81, and oil futures are $102.79.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 1368, 1380, and 1400; support levels are 1358, 1352, and 1348.

DJIA futures are down 132 points.

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