WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: MOMO ROUND-ROBIN BUYING CONTINUES, OIL AT TWO-YEAR HIGH ON API $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBF $TBT $USO

WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: MOMO ROUND-ROBIN BUYING CONTINUES, OIL AT TWO-YEAR HIGH ON API $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBF $TBT $USO

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section What To Do Now.

FED MINUTES AHEAD, MOMO ROUND-ROBIN BUYING CONTINUES, OIL AT TWO-YEAR HIGH ON API

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Fed Minutes Ahead

The Fed minutes will be released at 2:00 pm ET.  We will be reading the tea leaves for the next rate increase. The consensus is that the Fed will raise rates in December.

Momo Round-Robin Buying In Stocks

Yesterday in the Morning Capsule we shared with you the round-robin buying phenomena.  Momo round-robin buying continues in stocks in the early trade but it is less aggressive than yesterday. We previously shared with you that historically this a positive week for the market as investors get into the holiday spirit.

The ‘smart money’ is inactive in stocks.

Gold

Historically the momo crowd buys gold ahead of Fed minutes.  Today is no different. Momo crowd is buying gold in the early trade but the smart money is inactive.

Durable Goods

Durable Goods Ex-transports came at 0.4% vs. 0.5% consensus.  We exclude transports because they are too volatile and make it difficult for use in our timing models.  Please click here to see how we filter out the noise.

Jobless Claims

Jobless claims are a leading indictor and carry a heavy weight in our models.  Initial Jobless Claims came at 239K vs. 239K consensus.

Oil At Two-Year High On API

Oil is at a two-year high on API data.  API shows crude inventories falling 6.36 million barrels vs. consensus of a fall of 2.2 million barrels.

Technical Patterns

South African shares are Breaking Out. This is bullish.  ETF of interest is EZA.  Please note that fundamentals in South Africa are still negative. Those attempting to trade here on this breakout may want to keep very tight stops.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral but expect the market to start out positive.

Currencies, bonds and interest rates are range bound.

Gold futures are at $1285, silver futures are at $16.97, and oil futures are $57.73.

S&P 500 resistance level is 2615; support levels are 2550, 2500, and 2450.

DJIA futures are up/ down  37 points.

MOMO ROUND-ROBIN BUYING CONTINUES, TURKISH LIRA HITS ALL TIME LOW

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Stocks

Yesterday we had shared with you that the Thanksgiving week is historically positive for the market.  The momo crowd aggressively bought U. S. stocks.  Strength in the U. S. markets spilled over into Japan, then other Asian markets and finally into Europe.

The round-robin continues as more buying is coming in the early trade in the U. S. market inspired by strength in the overseas markets.

The ‘smart money’ is inactive.

Turkish Lira Hits All Time Low

The Turkish lira hits an all time low before the central bank forced a more expensive borrowing window on lenders. Investors are concerned about what may come out of a trial of a Turkish-Iranian gold trader.  There is concern that Turkish officials may have evaded U. S. sanctions against Iran.

Gold

Dollar is slightly weaker giving a slight lift to gold this morning.  Yesterday gold was sold aggressively as the need for safe havens melted away.   The smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is positive.

Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are ticking up.

Oil is range bound.

Gold futures are at $1278, silver futures are at $16.95, and oil futures are $56.52.

S&P 500 resistance level is 2615; support levels are 2550, 2500, and 2450.

DJIA futures are up 96 points.

GERMAN IMPASSE AND SAUDI RUMORS OF CONCERN BUT MOMO BUYS, POSITIVE SEASONAL, NATURAL GAS SOLD

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

German Impasse

Chancellor Merkel’s coalition has reached an impasse to form the next government.  This highlights political concerns in Europe.

Saudi Rumors

There are unconfirmed rumors than Crown Prince Salman will take over the throne.  Salman is only 32 years old and the usual line of succession has been bypassed.

Stocks

The ‘smart money’ is not buying perhaps out of concern related to developments in Germany and Saudi Arabia.  However, the momo crowd is aggressively buying.

Positive Seasonals

This week trading will be abridged due to the Thanksgiving holiday.  Historically this is a strong week for stocks as investors get into the holiday spirit.

Gold

After the run up last week, gold is being sold on the dollar getting stronger.  Gold moves inverse to the dollar.

Natural Gas

Natural gas is being aggressively sold on the weather forecast.

Technical Patterns

Consumer staple stocks have traced an Inside Bar. This is bearish. ETF of interest is XLP.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral but expect the market to start out positive.

Oil is range bound.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.

Gold futures are at $1290, silver futures are at $17.17, and oil futures are $56.32.

S&P 500 resistance level is 2615; support levels are 2550, 2500, and 2450.

DJIA futures are up 26  points.

 

WHAT TO DO NOW

Looking ahead and not only in the rear view mirror, consider continuing to hold existing core portfolio positions.  Based on individual risk preference, consider holding cash or treasury bills 19% – 29% and short to medium-term hedges of  15% – 25% and very short term hedges of 15%.

 

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