(The Weekly Digest reproduces the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers. )
NASDAQ HIGH, QUADRUPLE WITCHING, PAIN IN SHANGHAI AND ATHENS, AND GOLD BUGS ENCOURAGED
Yesterday NASDAQ hit a record intraday high surpassing the record from 15 years ago.
Today is quadruple witching. Stock index futures, stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures expire today. Expect volatility.
Part of this week’s up-move is attributable to buy side bias in quadruple witching. It is not uncommon for such gains to reverse on the following Monday.
There is pain in Athens. Greeks withdrew more than one billion euros out from the banks in a single day. Greek PM, Tsipras, is in Moscow seeking Russian help. His tactic may prove effective. The West does not want Greece to fall under Russian influence. Imagine a Russian naval base on a Greek island!
The U. S. appears to be pushing Europeans to provide more concessions to Greece for geopolitical reasons.
There is also pain in Shanghai. Shanghai Composite fell more than 6% overnight. Shanghai stocks have experienced the worst week since 2008.
Gold bugs are encouraged that the Fed will not raise interest rates until September.
Smart Money is selling oil. However oil has had a tendency to rocket up into Friday’s pit close on short covering.
Interest rates are rising slightly as bond shorts cover to realize profits before the weekend.
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral.
Gold futures are at $1202, silver futures are at $16.15, and oil futures are $59.62.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2132, 2150, and 2200; support levels are 2100, 2063, and 2038.
DJIA futures are down 22 points.
TRADERS SLAP THE U. S. DOLLAR AS THE FED UPGRADES THE U. S. ECONOMY BUT STAYS DOVISH
The Fed upgraded the U. S. economy. The Fed thinks the U. S. economy is strong enough to withstand not one but two interest rate hikes.
Overall the Fed statement was very dovish leading to traders aggressively selling the U. S. dollar.
The falling dollar is leading to higher commodities including gold, silver, and oil.
Interest rates are range bound.
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is mild positive.
Gold futures are at $1200, silver futures are at $16.33, and oil futures are $60.40.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2100, 2111, and 2132; support levels are 2063, 2038, and 2017.
DJIA futures are up 71 points.
HIGH WIRE FED ACT, GREEK CENTRAL BANK WARNS
The Fed is facing a high wire act in view of conflicting data. The economy in the U. S. is getting stronger but the international economy is getting weaker. There are also significant concerns over Greece. The Fed will announce its policy statement at 2:00 pm ET followed by a press conference at 2:30.
Greek central bank is warning that a default and euro exit will be painful.
Gold, silver and interest rates are range bound.
The momo crowd is aggressively buying oil, Smart Money is inactive in oil.
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral.
Gold futures are at $1177, silver futures are at $15.96, and oil futures are $61.05.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2100, 2111, and 2132; support levels are 2063, 2038, and 2017.
DJIA futures are up 37 points.
GLIMMER OF HOPE ON GREECE, THE FED DAY AHEAD
Tsipras speaking in front of Greek lawmakers showed no sign of backing down and accused its creditors of using tactics akin to financial asphyxiation. However the markets latched on to a very small part of his speech that was conciliatory.
Under consideration is a Eurozone summit if ministers fail to reach a resolution on Thursday.
Tomorrow is the Fed day. Expect a lot of position squaring. Machines will take over and exaggerate the move in which ever direction position squaring takes it
Gold and silver are reacting negatively to Tsipras.
Oil is trying to rally.
Interest rates are range bound.
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral.
Gold futures are at $1182, silver futures are at $15.95, and oil futures are $59.76.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2063, 2038, and 2017; support levels are 2100, 2111, and 2132.
DJIA futures are down 23 points.
IN GREEK TALKS BOTH SIDES DRAW RED LINES
In Greek talks both sides have drawn red lines. the problem is that the two red lines are far apart. Thursday will be a crucial day on Greece.
Industrial Production in the U. S. came at -0.2 vs. +0.2% consensus.
The momo crowd is aggressively buying gold and silver on the news.
Oil and interest rates are range bound.
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative.
Gold futures are at $1181, silver futures are at $15.96, and oil futures are $59.03.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2063, 2038, and 2017; support levels are 2100, 2111, and 2132.
DJIA futures are down 140 points.
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