(The Weekly Digest reproduces the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers. )
SCHIZOPHRENIC REACTION TO CHINA
August 9, 2013
Yesterday the market went up in reaction to strong import export data from China. Today, the market is down on strong industrial production data from China. Industrial production increased 9.7% year over year compared to consensus of about 9%. The thought is that strong data means China is less likely to ease monetary policy.
Gold futures are at $1308, silver futures are at $20.24, and oil futures are $104.42.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1700, 1710, and 1725; support levels are 1675, 1650, and 1635.
DJIA futures are down 28 points.
DATA FROM CHINA BRINGS BACK OPTIMISM TO THE STOCK MARKET
August 8, 2013
The U. S. stock market will open up about 62 points on optimism over data released overnight in China.
In China, imports increased 10.9% year on year and exports increased 5.1% year on year.
The gold market is also taking encouragement from this data.
Oil is weaker this morning, continuing weakness from yesterday.
Gold futures are at $1292, silver futures are at $19.86, and oil futures are $103.36.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1700, 1710, and 1725; support levels are 1675, 1650, and 1635.
DJIA futures are up 62 points.
STOCK MARKET CONCERNED ABOUT TAPER
August 7, 2013
Market participants are now finally concerned about taper. For several months, we have been projecting taper to potentially start in September. The most likely scenario is that the Fed will reduce its bond buying by about $20 billion after the September FOMC meeting.
The plan remains select buying, select short selling, and select profit taking.
Gold futures are at $1282, silver futures are at $1939, and oil futures are $104.70.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1700, 1710, and 1725; support levels are 1675, 1650, and 1635.
DJIA futures are down 55 points.
TRADE DEFICIT FALLS, GOLD UNDER $1300
August 6, 2013
Trade deficit fell to $34.2 billion vs consensus of $43.4 billion. This is the lowest number since October 2009. Interest rates are ticking up.
Gold has fallen below $1300.
Trading in stocks this morning is mildly negative.
Gold futures are at $1286, silver futures are at $19.56, and oil futures are $106.25.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1710, 1725, and 1750; support levels are 1675, 1650, and 1635.
DJIA futures are down 43 points.
EUROZONE PMI MOVES INTO EXPANSION TERRITORY, OIL AND GOLD DO NOT RISE IN SPITE OF TERROR THREAT
August 5, 2013
Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) over 50 is considered expansion territory. Eurozone’s PMI for July came at 50.5 in July up from 48.7 in June. At a minimum this number tells us that things are no longer getting worse in Europe and the trend is up.
Over the weekend, several U. S. embassies and consulate offices were closed due to a terror threat. Interestingly, oil and gold are not responding to this terror threat, both of them are down this morning.
The U. S. stocks are showing very little activity in the early morning.
Gold futures are at $1303, silver futures are at $19.55, and oil futures are $106.01.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1710, 1725, and 1750; support levels are 1675, 1650, and 1635.
DJIA futures are down 19 points.
