(The Weekly Digest reproduces the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers. )
SMART MONEY IS SELLING GOLD, PERSONAL SPENDING FALLS
August 30, 2013
Starting yesterday afternoon and continuing this morning, our algorithms are detecting selling of gold by Smart Money. So far the selling is light.
Based on conventional wisdom, on a Friday before a long weekend and in front of a possible strike on Syria, there should have been strong buying in gold.
Clearly Smart Money is acting contrary to the conventional wisdom.
The American consumer has been the backbone of this recovery. However, in July consumers were not in a spending mood. Personal spending came at 0.1% vs. consensus of 0.3%. Personal income came at 0.1% vs. consensus of 0.1%.
PCE Prices-Core, an important indication of inflation came at 0.1% vs. consensus of 0.2%. In other words, inflation was below the consensus.
Volume will be very light today. Often there are dislocations because of the light volume. Such dislocations lead to opportunities. Please stay alert for signals today.
Gold futures are at $1395, silver futures are at $23.52, and oil futures are $107.89.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1650, 1675, and 1700; support levels are 1625, 1607, and 1600.
DJIA futures are up 9 points.
STRONG ECONOMIC DATA
August 29, 2013
Q2 GDP Second Estimate revised to 2.5% vs. 2.1% consensus.
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims came at 331K vs. 330K consensus.
Gold and silver are backing off on strong economic data.
There is speculation that the U. S. strike on Syria may have been delayed until next week.
Not much should be read into yesterday’s stock market action as it was only a weak bounce from a very oversold very short-term condition.
Gold futures are at $1413, silver futures are at $24.19, and oil futures are $109.61.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1650, 1675, and 1700; support levels are 1625, 1607, and 1600.
DJIA futures are up 11 points.
SYRIA CONCERNS DOMINATE THE MARKETS
August 28, 2013
Concerns regarding Syria are dominating the markets this morning. Gold, silver, and oil are higher. Stocks are lower over seas. Stock futures in the U. S. are almost unchanged.
Speculation is that a strike on Syria will come tomorrow or Friday.
Ahead of the Labor Day holiday, there is not much liquidity in the markets and they can be whipsawed easily in either direction.
Our plan is to take advantage of the volatility created by Syria and lack of liquidity as opportunities present themselves.
Gold futures are at $1427, silver futures are at $24.85, and oil futures are $110.47.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1650, 1675, and 1700; support levels are 1625, 1607, and 1600.
DJIA futures are up 5 points.
THE WAR TRADE IS ON; GOLD, OIL AND BONDS UP BUT STOCKS DOWN
August 27, 2013
Kerry’s comment implies that a strike by the U. S. on Syria is imminent. The war trade is on.
Gold, oil, and Treasury bonds are up. Stocks are down.
We will be back to you with more analysis and actions to take.
Gold futures are at $1419, silver futures are at $24.50, and oil futures are $108.61.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1650, 1675, and 1700; support levels are 1625, 1607, and 1600.
DJIA futures are down 120 points.
BAD NEWS IS GOOD NEWS AGAIN, GOLD TOUCHED $1400
August 26, 2013
Stock market is back in the mode of interpreting bad news as good news. The reasoning is if the economy gets worse, the Fed will not taper. Market is scared of taper.
This morning durable goods orders ex-transports came at -0.6% vs. +0.6% consensus. In simpler words, orders were simply not being placed at the expected pace for long-lasting items such as machinery. Durable goods are very volatile and no conclusion should be drawn from one month’s numbers.
On the release of lower than expected durable goods, stock futures spiked a little, gold moved up to touch $1400, and bonds rose.
In our analysis, Fed is likely to start the taper this year and investors should be prepared for it. Further in our analysis, in the long run taper is good for the U. S. A. and therefore good for the stock market not with standing short-term volatility that taper may cause.
Gold futures are at $1397, silver futures are at $24.02, and oil futures are $106.20.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1675, 1700, and 1710; support levels are 1650, 1635, and 1625.
DJIA futures are down 20 points.
