WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: TRADE DEAL, GOLD SOLD, MARIJUANA TARGETS SLASHED, TURKEY INVASION $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBT $USO

WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: TRADE DEAL, GOLD SOLD, MARIJUANA TARGETS SLASHED, TURKEY INVASION $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBT $USO

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section What To Do Now.

TRADE OPTIMISM, TANKER ATTACK, BREXIT HOPE AND MARIJUANA TARGETS SLASHED

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Trade Optimism

Trump said that the first day of trade talks with China went ‘really well.’  Trump will meet with Vice Premier Liu He.

Stock market bulls continue to follow Trump like puppies.

Brexit Hope

There is new hope of a break through  in Brexit talks.  The pound is jumping.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks.  Smart money is inactive.

Gold

Money is moving out of gold on China and Brexit optimism.  The momo crowd is aggressively selling gold.  Smart money is inactive.

Oil

An Iranian oil tanker has been hit by missiles in the Red Sea.  Oil is jumping on the news.

The momo crowd is aggressively buying oil.  Smart money is inactive.

In our analysis, the next move in oil depends on the outcome of trade talks.  If trade talks fail, oil will move down.  On the other hand if a trade deal is reached, expect oil to move higher.

Marijuana

A Wall Street bank has slashed targets on marijuana stocks by 50%.  This brings into question Wall Street’s analysis on marijuana stocks.  Other than HEXO lowering net revenues, what else changed all of a sudden?  The answer is that nothing else changed yesterday.  It is simply that Wall Street got very bullish on marijuana stocks near the highs, kept on encouraging investors to buy them in large quantities and is now waking up to the reality.  In contrast, The Arora Report gave sell signals at the highs and encouraged investors to hold only very small quantities in a core portfolio for the very long term.  All short term positions and larger quantities were sold near the highs.

Moreover, we have been publishing money flows which have consistently shown that smart money was selling or at best neutral at times.  Once again those following the money flows have come out ahead compared to those following Wall Street.

The momo crowd is aggressively selling marijuana stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

Mining stocks are tracing a symmetrical continuation triangle.  This is bullish. ETF of interest is XME. However be careful taking this trade because it could easily get invalidated based on trade news.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is indeterminate because there is no model to predict with a high degree of confidence the outcome of the trade talks.  Even if the news is positive, it is not clear how the market will react after the first up move. However expect the market to open higher.   This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is weaker.

Gold futures are at $1487, silver futures are at $17.48, and oil futures are $54.20.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  3020, 3050 and 3100; support levels are 2950, 2925 and 2918.

DJIA futures are up 241 points.

WHIPSAWS ON RUMORS OF CURRENCY PACT WITH CHINA, CPI, TURKEY THREATENS EUROPE

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Whipsaws

Since yesterday evening, markets have been whipsawing on rumors galore regarding the trade deal.

The rumor that has received most traction is that the U. S. is considering a currency pact to add to a skinny deal.

Offshore yuan (Chinese currency) went from a loss to a gain on the rumor.

High level talks start today.

CPI

Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) came at 0.1% vs. 0.2% consensus.

Jobless Claims

Jobless Claims came at 210K vs. 218K consensus.

Turkey Threatens Europe

Turkey is proceeding with its incursion in Syria. In response to pressure from Europe to stop the incursion, Turkey is threatening Europe with unleashing millions of refugees into Europe.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is acting like a yo-yo.  Smart money is inactive.

Gold

The momo crowd was buying gold before the release of the CPI data.  The momentum in gold turned negative after the CPI data.  The momo crowd reversed and is now selling gold as of this writing.

Smart money is inactive.

Oil

The momo crowd is buying oil after an encouraging statement from OPEC.  Smart money is inactive.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is selling marijuana stocks.  Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

Indonesian stocks are tracing an inside bar.  This is bullish.  ETF of interest is EIDO.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is indeterminate as there is no model to forecast with a high degree of confidence the outcome of trade talks today.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is slightly weaker.

Gold futures are at $1507, silver futures are at $17.65, and oil futures are $53.09.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  2925, 2950 and 3020; support levels are 2860, 2840 and 2800.

DJIA futures are down 47 points.

FOMC MINUTES, CHINA PUTS A SKINNY DEAL ON THE TABLE, INTERNMENT CAMPS, TURKEY

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

FOMC Minutes

FOMC minutes will be released at 2:00 pm ET.  The minutes have the potential to move the markets.

Skinny Deal

There is a report that China has put a skinny deal on the table and offered to buy $10 billion of agricultural goods from the U. S.

In our analysis, a skinny deal is in China’s long term interest but works against the U. S.  The U. S. should be thinking not in terms of months but in terms of the next two or three decades.

Wall Street is likely to react very positively to a skinny deal and may run up the stock market to new highs.  On the other hand if Trump rejects a skinny deal, Wall Street may ‘throw a fit’  and push the stock market down below the recent support levels.

Internment Camps

Think what you may of Trump, yesterday he showed guts by restricting visas for Chinese Communist party officials who are involved in putting about two million Turkic Uyghur people in internment camps for reeducation in the autonomous region of Xinjiang.  The stock market fell on the news but this morning the stock market has forgotten about it and is running up on the prospects of a skinny deal.

Turkey

Turkey is starting an invasion of Northern Syria to push back Kurds who have been stanch American allies.  Kurds were the fighting force that got ride of ISIS in Syria.   President Trump has withdrawn American forces that were working with Kurds and apparently gave a green light to Turkey for the invasion.  President Trump has tried to backtrack and threaten Turkey with sanctions but Turkey is going ahead anyways.

Republican Senators are not openly criticizing Trump for the most part but it appears that many are calling this a shameful and dark action on the part of the United States.  This becomes important because Trump is going to need support from Republican Senators to fight impeachment.

Further, Turkey is coordinating the invasion  with Russian troops in Syria.  This will have the effect of increasing Russian influence in the Middle East.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks in the early trade. Yesterday going into the close, the momo crowd was aggressively selling stocks.

Smart money is inactive.

Gold

Earlier this morning gold was being sold on the prospect of a skinny deal with China.  When $1500 support level held and the momentum reversed to the positive side, buyers came in and now the momo crowd is aggressively buying gold.

Smart money is inactive.

Oil

Oil is seeing buying on Turkish invasion.

API showed an inventory build of 4.13 million barrel build vs. consensus of 1.4 million barrel build.  However this build is offset by bullish data on distillates and gasoline.

The momo crowd is buying oil.  Smart money is inactive.

EIA data that will be released at 10:30 am will potentially move the market.

Marijuana

In a surprise announcement, MMNFF abandoned its buyout of PharmaCann that was originally a $600 million acquisition. This was the biggest deal in the U. S. at that time.

MMNFF has also ousted its CFO.  Overall these surprise announcements are negative for cannabis stocks.

The momo crowd is lightly buying in the early trade.  Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

Basic material stocks are tracing a diamond top.  This is bearish.  ETF of interest is XLB. However be careful taking this trade or any other short term trade over the next two days because the news related to skinny deal can whipsaw the market.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is indeterminate because there is no model to predict with a high level of confidence as to how Trump will respond to the skinny deal proposal.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking  down.

The dollar is slightly weaker.

Gold futures are at $1513, silver futures are at $17.85, and oil futures are $53.40.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  2925, 2950 and 3020; support levels are 2860, 2840 and 2800.

DJIA futures are up 159 points.

HUMAN RIGHTS IN CHINA AND LIMIT TO CHINESE STOCKS WEIGH ON STOCK MARKET BULLS

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

China And Turkey

Repression of human rights in China, limits on American money flowing to Chinese stocks and mini crisis in Turkey is beginning to weigh on stock market bulls. Let’s explore with the help of two charts.

Two Charts

For the first chart, please click here for an annotated chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY). For the sake of full transparency, this chart was previously published and no changes have been made.

For the second chart, please click here for an annotated chart of S&P futures (ESZ19). The chart of futures is used because futures were trading through the night when the selloff started.

Note the following:

  • For proper context, please start out by reading yesterday’s Morning Capsule.
  • The first chart shows how Trump ran up the stock market when there was a great setup for the stock market to fall.
  • The second chart shows the fall in the stock market futures on China concerns.
  • The second chart shows the VUD indicator. VUD indicator is the most sensitive measure of net supply demand in real time. The chart shows net buying in green and net selling in orange.
  • The U. S. has blacklisted 28 Chinese entities for their role in repressing Muslims in Northwest China.
  • The direct effect of the blacklisting can be seen by the move in the U. S. semiconductor company Ambarella stock (AMBA). Two of the blacklisted companies make up about 25% of Ambarella’s revenues.
  • The blacklisting comes right ahead of the high level talks with China.
  • There is a report that the Trump administration is considering limiting U. S. government pension funds from investing in Chinese stocks.
  • Chinese state TV network has halted showing MBA games after a tweet by Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey expressing support for Hong Kong’s protestors.
  • A mini crisis is developing in Turkey. There is a report that Trump has ordered withdrawal of the U. S. troops from Northern Syria.
  • Turkey has announced that it is planning to invade Syria.
  • A Turkish invasion may result in a bloodbath of Kurds who have been staunch allies of the U. S. in fighting ISIS.
  • As of this writing, Trump appears to be rethinking after apparent concerns by Senators.
  • Trump needs help from Senators to fight impeachment.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively selling stocks.  Smart money is inactive.

Gold

Money is moving into the safety of gold.  The momo crowd is aggressively buying gold.  Smart money is inactive.

Oil

The momo crowd is selling oil on China concerns.  Smart money is inactive.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is selling marijuana stocks.  Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

Gold futures are at $1512, silver futures are at $17.82, and oil futures are $52.18.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  2918, 2925 and 2950; support levels are 2860, 2840 and 2800.

DJIA futures are down 198 points.

TRUMP BRILLIANTLY SLAYS THE BEARS AND BULLS BEHAVE LIKE PUPPY DOGS

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Trump’s Brilliance Turns Bulls Into Puppy Dogs

First and foremost, I am politically agnostic. My sole job is to help investors. This column is not about politics. The purpose of this column is to help investor develop a sharper understanding of economic indicators and mechanics of the stock market such as short squeezes.

At a time when multiple whistle blowers may be emerging against Trump, economic data is showing weakness, grim earnings season is ahead and smart money sells into the stock market strength, Trump brilliantly slayed the bears and made bulls behave like puppy dogs.

Think what you may of Trump, the evidence is overwhelming that he is a brilliant market timer. In my over 30 years in the markets, I have never seen anybody else as good at market timing as Trump. Let’s first explore with the help of a chart and then ask two important questions that prudent investors ought to be asking but nobody is talking about.

The Chart

Please click here for an annotated chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY). A majority of the emails I am receiving are asking for an update on a chart of Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). It is understandable because Dow Jones Industrial Average is the most popular index of the stock market, however not much money in the stock market is tied to it. Most money in the stock market is tied to S&P 500 index (SPX). Therefore investors ought to use a chart of S&P 500 when analyzing the stock market.

Note the following:

  • Broadly speaking, economic indicators can be divided into three types: leading, coincident and lagging.
  • Investors who are interested in getting ahead of the curve ought to pay most attention to the leading indicators. The Arora Report’s adaptive ZYX Asset Allocation Model that has consistently beaten the market and even generated significant profits using inverse ETFs and short selling during the bear market of the last great recession puts heavier weight on leading economic indicators.
  • In plain English, adaptive means that the model automatically changes itself with the new conditions. Investors ought to consider adaptive models and not static models. Most of the models that investors currently use are static. The obvious disadvantage of static models is that market and economic conditions change. However a static model does not change with changing conditions.
  • Investors are often lulled into a false sense of security by using static models that performed well in the past and then get burned when such models fail to perform. Obvious examples are 2000 and 2008.
  • At present, the probability of a recession is increasing. There are not many things about the stock market that anyone including me can say with certainty. As a red flag for prudent investors, I can say with certainty that a recession is not priced in the present stock prices.
  • Currently, leading economic indicators have the heaviest weight in the ZYX Asset Allocation Model due to the prospects of a recession.
  • The chart shows that when weaker than expected ISM manufacturing data was released the stock market fell.
  • ISM manufacturing index is a leading indicator.
  • Manufacturing is only a small part of the U. S. economy.
  • More important is ISM non-manufacturing data.
  • The chart shows when the ISM manufacturing data was released, the market first fell. The ISM non-manufacturing data was also weaker than expected.
  • ISM non-manufacturing data is a very important leading indicator and deserves a heavy weight in any model.
  • The chart shows that long term Arora portfolios are up to 62% protected at this time. The protection is reviewed daily.
  • The chart shows the Arora signal to start a short term trade by short selling Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ). For those who could not short but are aggressive, a signal was given to buy leveraged inverse ETF (SQQQ) for a short term trade. This inverse ETF goes up when the stock market falls.
  • Both short term trades have been profitable.
  • Investors ought to consider following Arora’s 18th Law of Investing and Trading: Diversifying by time frames provides a consistent stream of profits.
  • The chart shows that near the lows, Trump made positive comments about a trade deal with China and invited China to investigate Bidden.
  • The chart shows that the market reversed and ended the day higher on Trump’s comments.
  • In keeping with Trump’s highly successful pattern of reversing the falling market to the upside at critical junctions, this time also Trump’s timing was impeccable as shown on the chart.
  • The chart shows that there was heavy volume on the second down day but light volume on the second up day. This indicates conviction on the downside but lack of conviction on the upside. Of course the market, in the very short term, made fools of those with conviction.
  • The chart shows release of the jobs report. Jobs report is a lagging indicator.

Trump’s Impeccable Timing

Trump’s impeccable timing is obvious from the following:

  • The chart shows that when Trump’s comment came, RSI was oversold and moving up. From a momentum perspective, this was the perfect spot to turn the stock market around.
  • The Arora Report recently wrote before the market reversal to the upside at a time when the market was falling, “The chart shows that RSI is oversold. In plain English this means that the stock market can easily stage a big jump up on the slightest bit of good news.”
  • The chart shows that when Trump’s comment came, the stock market was hitting the top of the support zone. From the perspective of support, this was a perfect spot to turn the stock market around.
  • Support zones are invaluable to investors.
  • The volume in the stock market was heavy on the prior day. This indicated that there was real danger of a significant drop in the stock market.
  • According to algorithms at The Arora Report, short sellers were finally aggressively pushing the pedal to the downside as a number of indicators were showing more weakness to come in the stock market.
  • The stock market was perfectly positioned to cause a short squeeze.
  • In a short squeeze, short sellers feel compelled to buy to cover.
  • Buying by short sellers in the stock market is artificial buying.
  • The chart shows two different zones where short squeezes in the stock market were the major reasons for the aggressive move up in the stock market.
  • According to algorithms at The Arora Report, about one-third of the up move on Trump’s comment was attributable to short covering of stocks.

Two Important Questions

Here are the two important questions prudent investors ought to ask themselves:

  • Market timing is hard. History is littered with famous market timers first calling it right and then getting it wrong. How long will Trump’s impressive streak continue? Of course, as the holder of the most powerful job in the world, Trump has thousands of times more power than the typical market timers.
  • Do you want to trust your financial future if you are an investors or your career if you are an investment advisor or a money manager to Trump’s future success at market timing?

In addition to watching the stock market indices and the stock market internals, investors ought to watch the stock of Apple (AAPL). Apple gets a big part of its sales from China. Apple’s profits in the United States are vulnerable to tariffs because most of its products are imported from China. If it gets worse between the U. S. and China, the Chinese government may choose to retaliate against Apple. In such a scenario, Apple stock can easily lose $100. Of course, nobody on Wall Street is talking about such a scenario. Investors ought to be aware that Wall Street’s job is to stay in the good graces of large companies such as Apple and persuade investors to continue sending their money to Wall Street. In addition to Apple, investors ought to carefully watch popular large-cap stocks such as Amazon (AMZN), Facebook (FB), Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT). Semiconductors are often leading indicators; investors ought to carefully watch semiconductor stocks such as AMD (AMD), Micron (MU), Intel (INTC) and NVIDIA (NVDA).

Trade Talks

There is a report that China may want to limit trade talks.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is lightly selling stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is also selectively and lightly selling stocks in the early trade.  Smart money was also lightly selling during the up spike on Friday afternoon when the momo crowd was aggressively buying.

Gold

The momo crowd is acting like a yo-yo in gold.  Smart money is inactive.

Oil

The momo crowd is acting like a yo-yo in oil.  Smart money is inactive.

Marijuana

A Wall Street bank which was apparently bullish on marijuana stocks at much higher prices is now saying that marijuana stocks are 30% over valued even at these low prices.

The momo crowd is acting like a yo-yo in marijuana stocks.  Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.

Currencies are range bound.

Gold futures are at $1504, silver futures are at $17.55, and oil futures are $53.64.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  2950, 3020 and 3050; support levels are 2925, 2918 and 2860.

DJIA futures are up/down 56 points.

WHAT TO DO NOW

Looking ahead and not only in the rear view mirror, consider continuing to hold existing core portfolio positions.  Based on individual risk preference, consider holding cash or treasury bills 22% – 32% and short to medium-term hedges of  5% – 15% and short term hedges of 5% – 15%.

 

A knowledgeable investor would have turned $100,000 into over $1,000,000 with the help from The Arora Report. NOW YOU TOO CAN ALSO SPECTACULARLY SUCCEED AT MEETING YOUR GOALS WITH THE HELP OF THE ARORA REPORT. You are receiving less than 2% of the content from our paid services. …TO RECEIVE REMAINING 98% INCLUDING MANY ATTRACTIVE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES, TAKE A FREE TRIAL TO PAID SERVICES.

Please click here to take advantage of a FREE  30 day trial.

Check out our enviable performance in both bull and bear markets.

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