WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: TRUMP AGAIN RUNS UP THE STOCK MARKET BUT PAY ATTENTION TO RISKS, MARIJUANA DREAM $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBT $USO

WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: TRUMP AGAIN RUNS UP THE STOCK MARKET BUT PAY ATTENTION TO RISKS, MARIJUANA DREAM $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBT $USO

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section What To Do Now.

TRUMP RUNS UP THE OVERSOLD MARKET AGAIN, WEAKNESS IN APARTMENT BUILDING STARTS

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Trump Runs Up Oversold Market

When the market is oversold, it is prone to rally.  Trump has mastered the art of running the market up when it is oversold.  He has done it again by saying that he will soon have a phone call with President Xi  of China.

Housing Starts

New apartment buildings have been one of the hottest sectors of the economy.  The latest data released this morning shows that finally Apartment Building Starts are slowing.

Housing Starts came at 1191K vs. 1245K consensus.  As housing starts weakened, building permits went up.  Building Permits came a 1336K vs. 1260K consensus.

Overall the report is balanced.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively buying stocks.  Smart money is inactive.

Gold

Gold is seeing some selling on slightly stronger dollar.  As of this writing the momo crowd is selling gold.  Smart money is inactive.

Oil

Oil is range bound.  The momo crowd is selling oil.  Smart money is inactive.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is buying some stocks and buying others.  There is no smart money activity.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is positive but can quickly swing negative.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is slightly stronger.

Gold futures are at $1521, silver futures are at $17.14, and oil futures are $57.17.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  2918, 2925 and 2950; support levels are 2860, 2840 and 2800.

DJIA futures are up 157 points.

HERE IS THE GAME PLAN FOR THE U. S. STOCK INVESTORS IF CHINA RETALIATES AGAINST TRUMP, STRONG RETAIL SALES

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

China Response

In the past, China has shown an extraordinary restrain in response to the U. S. tariffs and Trump tweets. Now China is warning of retaliation if new tariffs set for September 1 go ahead. One of the secrets of The Arora Report success is that we prepare a variety of scenarios in advance. This way we not only get ahead of the curve but are also able to act with conviction as events unfold. All investors ought to consider doing the same. Let us discuss your game plan if China retaliates starting with the help of two charts.

Two Charts

Please click here for an annotated chart S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Even though Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is the most popular index, for analysis purposes, investors ought to focus on S&P 500 because the most money is tied to S&P 500 (SPX). Those investors with heavy concentration in technology may consider Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Please click here for a chart showing support zones. For the sake of full transparency this chart was previously published.

Note the following:

  • The second chart shows that the U. S. stock market is in very good shape relative to the support zones in spite of high volatility. These support zones are your guide if the stock market falls.
  • The first chart shows the Arora buy signal given on Christmas Eve which has turned out to be the low of this cycle and stocks moved up about 20% from that buy signal. Investors ought to make a special note that the level at which this signal was given now is the lower band of a major support zone. As long as this support is not decisively violated, investors ought to consider holding on to good long term positions with proper hedges and cash levels.
  • The first chart shows four Arora signals given before the market drop to take profits on select positions, protect the long term portfolios, a short term trade and take profits on China. Investors who do not have appropriate cash levels and hedges in place for these market conditions ought to consider taking protective steps on strong up days.   Investors ought to resist the temptation of selling or establishing new hedges when the market is down 800 Dow Jones Industrial Average points.
  • The volume on the first chart shows churning with high volume. This indicates indecision. Right now volume shows that bulls and bears are in balance but both have higher conviction than before.
  • The RSI pattern again shows indecision.
  • Which way the market breaks from this indecision will depend on the news. Run away from anyone who claims to know the answer with certainty.
  • There are two pieces of good news. Walmart (WMT) is a reflection of a big part of the U. S. economy. Walmart reported earnings better than the consensus and the whisper numbers in spite of the tariffs. Alibaba (BABA) is a reflection of China’s online economy. Alibaba also reported earnings better than the consensus and the whisper numbers. Previously JD.com (JD), another major Chinese ecommerce provider reported good earnings.

Five Major Potential China Retaliations

There are many ways China can retaliate; here are the five major issues that investors ought to be concerned about:

  • China could further weaken its currency yuan. If China takes this step, outflows from China will rise and the dollar will get stronger. This will be negative for the U. S. stock market in the short term but positive in the long term. More importantly it will be negative for precious metals. Popular ETFs such as gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV) and gold miner ETF (GDX) may fall.
  • China holds a large quantity of U. S. Treasury bonds. China could choose to sell them. In the past, this would have had a very negative effect on the U. S. investors. However now with the U. S. interest rates having fallen so much, slight increase in U. S. interest rates because of China selling could actually be good news for the stock market. There will be trading opportunities using bond ETFs (TLT) and (TBT). Selling by China of the long term bonds may increase yield on long term bonds and get rid of the inverted yield curve.
  • China could increase the red tape for U. S. companies. Highly visible U. S. companies such as Apple (AAPL), Starbucks (SBUX), Nike (NKE) and Boeing (BA) are at risk. Note that popular stocks such as Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN) and Google (GOOG) (GOOGL) do not do any material business in China. Popular semiconductor stocks such as Intel (INTL), AMD (AMD), Micron (MU) and NVIDIA (NVDA) may be adversely affected.
  • China could discourage tourism to the United States. Even though the U. S. runs a big deficit on trade of goods with China, on services the U. S. runs a surplus.
  • China could cause geopolitical problems by supporting Iran, North Korea and Pakistan.

The Game Plan

China’s retaliation will be negative for U. S. stocks in the short term but positive in the long term. As actionable items, investors may consider the following:

  • Hold significantly more than normal amount of cash.
  • Hedge, at least partially, long term positions.
  • Focus on short term trading opportunities.
  • Be ready to deploy cash opportunistically for the long term if the market falls.
  • Restrain precious metal purchases.

Retail Sales

Retail Sales Ex-Auto came at 1.0% vs. 0.3% consensus.

Unit Labor Costs

Unit Labor Cost came at 2.4% vs. 1.6% consensus.

Hysteria Misplaced

The foregoing two economic numbers show that the hysteria for large rate cuts is misplaced.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is aggressively buying as of this writing.  Smart money is inactive.

Gold

Gold was seeing aggressive buying before the retail sales data.  Strong retail sales prompted selling in gold.  The momo crowd is acting like a yo-yo.  Smart money is inactive.

Oil

There is no discernable momo crowd or smart money activity in oil.

Marijuana

CGC earnings were worse than consensus and the whisper numbers. The momo crowd was aggressively selling marijuana stocks until about 15 minutes ago.  As of this writing the momo crowd has reversed course and is aggressively buying marihuana stocks.  Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral but expect the market to open higher.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates, bonds and currencies are range bound.

Gold futures are at $1521, silver futures are at $17.10, and oil futures are $54.94.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  2860, 2918 and 2925; support levels are 2840, 2800 and 2765.

DJIA futures are up 164 points.

TRUMP SPURS THE RALLY BUT POOR DATA FROM CHINA AND GERMANY UNDOES IT, MARIJUANA DREAM DASHED

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Trump Spurs The Rally

Trump delayed some tariffs on China.  This caused an almost $600 point reversal in DJIA yesterday morning.

Poor Data Undoes The Rally

This morning the rally is being undone due to poor data from Germany and China.

Q2 flash GDP in Germany contracted 0.1% vs. 0.1% contraction consensus.

China Industrial Production increased 4.8% vs. 6.0% consensus.

Yield Curve Inverts

The U. S. 10-year yields dropped 8 basis points to 1.62%.  The 2-year Treasury yield fell 3 basis points to 1.63%.  The yield curve is now inverted, although barely.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd bought extremely aggressively yesterday after the Trump tariff news.  Smart money sold near the highs yesterday.

So far this morning, the momo crowd is aggressively selling stocks.  Smart money is inactive.

Gold

Gold is running up on poor data from China and Germany.

The momo crowd is aggressively buying gold.  Smart money is inactive.

Oil

Oil is falling as API data showed a build of 3.7 million barrels vs. consensus of a draw of 2.7 million barrels.

The momo crowd is aggressively selling.  Smart money is inactive.

Marijuana

TLRY reported poor earnings.  This is dashing hoped and dreams in marijuana.  CGC earnings are ahead.  As a full disclosure, we still have a small short position on TLRY from the time when it reached $300.

Technical Patterns

There are several patterns that we would have normally mentioned but trading on those will likely result in losses due to the way the market is behaving today.  For this reason we are choosing not to publish them.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are falling and bonds are rising.

The dollar is slightly weaker.

Gold futures are at $1524, silver futures are at $17.19, and oil futures are $55.52.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  2918, 2925 and 2950; support levels are 2860, 2840 and 2800.

DJIA futures are down 383 points.

LAST TIME THIS HAPPENED, STOCKS LOST 50% — THIS TIME IS DIFFERENT

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Different This Time

History does not always repeat but prudent investors ought to pay attention to the history. When this happened the last time, most investors lost about half the value of their portfolio. It was a common joke that 401(k)s had become 201(k)s. Let’s explore with the help of two charts.

Two Charts

Please click here for a chart showing the yield curve.

Please click here for an annotated chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY). Even though many investors focus on Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), it is better to focus on S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ). For the sake of full transparency this is the same chart that was previously published without any changes.

Note the following:

  • The white vertical areas in the first chart show recessions.
  • During the last recession shown on the first chart, most investors lost about one-half of the value of their portfolios.
  • The first chart shows that the yield curve has fallen to the lowest level since the last recession.
  • The first chart shows that the fall in the yield curve has been followed by a recession.
  • The second chart shows that The Arora Report gave four signals before the drop in the stock market.
  • The four signals include short selling Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) or buying leveraged inverse Nasdaq 100 ETF (SQQQ) that goes up when the market goes down, increasing hedges to protect portfolios, taking profits on select ETF positions in our ZYX Global portfolio, and taking profits on a China ETF (ASHR) in our ZYX Emerging portfolio. ETFs on which profits were taken include semiconductor equities ETF (SMH), technology equities ETF (IYW), China internet equities ETF (KWEB), frontier markets ETF (FM), small-cap Japan equities ETF (DXJS) and large-cap currency hedged Japan equities ETF (HEWJ).
  • Please click here for an intraday chart of S&P 500 ETF SPY that was published when the stock market was staging a strong rally. For the sake of complete transparency, this is exactly the same chart that was published without any changes. When the stock market was rallying, we wrote: ‘The chart shows a key reversal. This is positive and, in traditional technical analysis, it means a rally is ahead. The chart shows that the VUD indicator stayed mostly orange during the strong rally from the lows. The VUD indicator is the most sensitive measure of net supply and demand in real time. The indicator staying mostly orange during the strong rally indicates that there was more supply of stocks than the demand for stocks. The market rose because buyers were significantly more aggressive than the sellers. The behavior shown on the first chart of a key reversal accompanied by a negative VUD indicator means that more likely than not a subsequent rally may fail.’
  • The foregoing call was proven spot on showing the power of the VUD indicator. The rally has failed as of this writing.
  • The last time the yield curve was hitting lows, The Arora Report portfolios were 100% protected with cash and hedges. In addition, we were aggressively short selling and giving signals to buy inverse ETFs for those who could not short. When most investors lost about half of their portfolio values, The Arora Report subscribers generated significant positive returns. This was based on the ZYX Asset Allocation Model with 10 inputs.
  • This time it is different. Even though we have taken protective measures, they are nowhere near the protection we took the last time. Further we are only opportunistically short selling and not wholesale short selling.   This is based on the ZYX Asset Allocation Model which is reaching different conclusions this time.

CPI

Core CPI came at 0.3% vs. 0.2% consensus.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is selling stocks.  Smart money is inactive.

Gold

The momo crowd is buying stocks.  Smart money is inactive.

Oil

There is no material momo crowd or smart money activity.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is buying stocks.  Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative but can easily turn positive.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.

The currencies are range bound.

Gold futures are at $1532, silver futures are at $17.35, and oil futures are $54.50.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  2918, 2925 and 2950; support levels are 2860, 2840 and 2800.

DJIA futures are down 30 points.

HONG KONG UNREST KILLS THE BUDDING RALLY

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Hong Kong Unrest

Yesterday evening stock future were higher.  The momo crowd was buying.

When the news came that the Hong Kong airport was shut down due to unrest, selling came into stocks across the globe.  As the momentum reversed, the momo crowd sold.

Argentina

An election win by the opposition candidate is causing stocks in Argentina and Argentinian stocks and currency to plunge.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The downward momentum has stopped as of this writing and the momo crowd is buying again after selling earlier.  Smart money is inactive.

Gold

Gold is seeing buying on Hong Kong unrest.  The momo crowd is buying gold.  Smart money is inactive.

Oil

Oil is holding gains on hopes of production cuts by OPEC.

The momo crowd is acting like a yo-yo.  Smart money is inactive.

Marijuana

The momo crowd is buying marijuana stocks.  Smart money is inactive.

Technical Patterns

None of note.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative but can quickly swing positive.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Gold futures are at $1511, silver futures are at $16.91, and oil futures are $54.63.

S&P 500 resistance levels are  2918, 2925 and 2950; support levels are 2860, 2840 and 2800.

DJIA futures are down  144 points.

WHAT TO DO NOW

Looking ahead and not only in the rear view mirror, consider continuing to hold existing core portfolio positions.  Based on individual risk preference, consider holding cash or treasury bills 22% – 32% and short to medium-term hedges of  5% – 15% and short term hedges of 5% – 15%.

 

A knowledgeable investor would have turned $100,000 into over $1,000,000 with the help from The Arora Report. NOW YOU TOO CAN ALSO SPECTACULARLY SUCCEED AT MEETING YOUR GOALS WITH THE HELP OF THE ARORA REPORT. You are receiving less than 2% of the content from our paid services. …TO RECEIVE REMAINING 98% INCLUDING MANY ATTRACTIVE INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES, TAKE A FREE TRIAL TO PAID SERVICES.

Please click here to take advantage of a FREE  30 day trial.

Check out our enviable performance in both bull and bear markets.

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