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Technology stocks have been the generals of this market. So it makes sense to look at them before the midterm elections, especially since the surprising announcement from Apple last week has colored many tech stocks.
To read about Apple AAPL and the contrasting reactions from the smart money and the momo (momentum) crowds, please see: “The ‘smart money’ is staying neutral on Apple.”
Forecasting the election results is a hazardous business. And predicting stock market reactions to an election is doubly hazardous. The Arora Report was a rare service that called not only Brexit results correctly, but also correctly bought the market dip. When Wall Street had ordained Hillary Clinton as the president before the election, The Arora Report was again a rare service to not buy into it. On Trump’s victory, The Arora Report gave a buy signal at a time when many were predicting doom for the stock market.
So what is The Arora Report saying about the midterm elections? Let’s examine with the help of a chart.
Please click here for the chart of money flows in 11 popular tech stocks. Please note the following:
• The money flows correctly called the recent dip in tech stocks. Please see “Heed the early-warning signal in 11 popular tech stocks’ money flows.”
• The chart shows that the money flows in Apple are neutral, but the momo crowd money flows are negative. If Republicans win big, it will strengthen Trump’s hand in negotiating with China. Any favorable trade deal with China will have a positive impact on Apple, Intel INTC, Advanced Micro Devices AMD, Microsoft MSFT, and Nvidia NVDA. The chart shows both smart money and momo crowd money flows in these stocks.
• The chart shows that money flows in Amazon.com AMZN are neutral but mildly positive in Facebook FB and Alphabet GOOG, GOOGL. Trump is again talking about antitrust actions against Amazon. This time he is also adding Google and Facebook to his list. If Trump’s team wins big, these stocks may see negative headlines from time to time and come under pressure.
• Tesla TSLA has neutral smart money flows but will benefit if Democrats win big. Democrats tend to be more pro-electric cars — and pro-environment.
• Smart money flows are mildly positive in Alibaba Group Holding BABA. If Trump’s side wins, a trade deal may occur sooner and that may be positive for Alibaba.
• Netflix NFLX, is not likely to be directly affected by the election.
• The consensus now is that irrespective of who wins, the market will rise. The reason is that the market hates uncertainty, and after the election is over, the uncertainty will be lifted going into a seasonally strong period. However, there are three big reasons for caution, so please read on…Read more at MarketWatch.
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