(The Weekly Digest reproduces the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers. )  JOB NUMBER UNEXPECTEDLY DIVERGES FROM OTHER DATA, RAISE MORE CASH October 2, 2015 September Non-farm Private Payrolls came at 118K vs. 200K consensus.  This is completely unexpected based on the consensus view and other normally correlated data. The employment number is a lagging indicator.  The models at The Arora Report focus on leading indicators.  However, in the short term, it is important for investors to immediately react to this number.  There is a reason that this

(The Weekly Digest reproduces the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers. )  YELLEN CHANGES TUNE BUT STILL FAR FROM CERTAINTY September 25, 2015 Yellen, in her press conference after the FOMC meeting created a lot of confusion.  The consensus take was that she was not going to raise rates for a very long time.  This raised the question, “What does the Fed know that we do not know?”  The uncertainty caused a global sell off in stocks, run up in gold and bonds. Last night, Yellen changed

(The Weekly Digest reproduces the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers. )  FED CHICKENS OUT, WHAT IS NEXT? September 18, 2015 Our call  in yesterday’s Morning Capsule has turned out to be spot on. The big money is positioned for the Fed to either not raise rates or raise rates accompanied by an extremely dovish statement. If big money turns out to be right, expect a mild rally.  The big money will likely sell into the rally potentially causing a sell-off. After the Fed chickened out and did not