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NEW IDEA ON VRINGO, OUR ROYALTY ESTIMATE $VRNG $AOL $GOOG $TGT $GCI

November 6, 2012

This post was just published on ZYX Short Sell Change Alert A jury awarded Vringo (VRNG), $30M in past damages plus royalties on its patents until they expire in 2016, according to The Virginian-Pilot. The jury ordered Google (GOOG) to pay $15.9M, AOL (AOL) to pay $7.9M, and others including Target (TGT) and Gannett (GCI) to pay the remainder, though award is far lower than $5000 million Vringo had sought. This has become a cult stock and the cultists may hang their hat on 3.5% royalty to be paid till 2016. Our estimate is that the royalty stream is worth about $100

ROMNEY WIN WOULD SPARK TRADE WAR, TANK APPLE, GM AND FORD $AAPL $GM $F

November 6, 2012

A Romney win would hurt Appleand General Motors very badly. Both of these companies are highly dependent on China for their growth. Romney has repeatedly stated that he will declare China a currency manipulator on his first day in office. Such a declaration would likely lead to a trade war. Chinese consumers are nationalistic. Japanese car makers are finding out the hard way because of a conflict between China and Japan over an uninhabited island. Toyota Motor’s sales in China fell 49% in September and 44% in October. General Motors benefited at the expense of Japanese manufacturers. Buick sales in China increased 7.7%

HOW TO PLAY A POST-ELECTION STOCK MARKET $AAPL $C $CDE $ANR $FCG $GLD $JPM $LMT $CHK $TBF

November 6, 2012

Historical data shows that there is no statistically significant pattern as to what happens to the stock market one year after an election. However, the data shows profits are consistently made by focusing on buying sectors that are favored by the winner and short-selling the sectors that are disfavored by the winner. Here is the data for the S&P 500 SPX change one year after the start of a new presidential term. 2008: 26.5% gain 2004: 4.1% gain 2000: 15.6% loss 1996: 23.8% gain 1992: 5.7% gain 1988: 13.2% gain 1984: 16.8% gain 1980: 18.5% loss Romney favors tighter monetary

SILVER MINER CDE FALLS OUT OF BED $CDE

November 6, 2012

This post was just published on ZYX Short Sell Change Alert Silver miner CDE has fallen out of bed and has been down as much as $5.31. This morning profits at $28.50 were obviously taken too early. We told you that more profits are ahead. From emails it appears that a large number of our subscribers are holding and have not taken profits. Congratulations to those who waited. Those who have not taken profits may want to protect profits either by using a tight stop loss or exiting right here around $25.19 and exit the position.

TAKE PARTIAL PROFITS ON SILVER $SLV

November 6, 2012

This post was just published on ZYX Short Sell Change Alert Consider taking partial profits on a 15% tranche on SLV right here around $30.15. Futures equivalent is $31.18. After this profit taking 50% of the full core position size will be held. The purpose of this profit taking is to reduce risk going into the election results.

TAKE PROFITS ON SILVER MINER CDE AND EXIT THE POSITION $CDE

November 6, 2012

This post was just published on ZYX Short Sell Change Alert CDE reported worse than expected earnings and revenues. In the premarket the stock has traded as low at $28. Consider taking profits and exiting the position right here around $28.50. There are more profits to come, but it is prudent to not look a gift horse in the mouth since there are decent gains in one day. Further, we have other positions in the same group.

BE MINDFUL OF SCAMS AT SMALL CHINESE COMPANIES $NTE

November 5, 2012

Nam Tai Electronics (NTE) today moved up 41.08% after reporting better than expected earnings. Bullish investors were especially excited on Q3 revenues of $380.3 million vs. $127.6 million in Q3 of 2011. NTE reported earnings of $0.54 compared to $0.02 in the prior comparable quarter. It is unusual for a company in this line of business to report this kind of increase. There is no indication of any scam or impropriety in the earnings report. However in view of a 41% jump in the stock investors should be mindful of previous scams in a number of small Chinese companies that

JOE: INITIATE OR ADD TO THE LARGEST LAND OWNER IN FLORIDA $JOE

November 5, 2012

This post was just published on ZYX Buy Change Alert. The company is a real estate development company that owns 577,000 acres of land primarily in northwest Florida as well as 405,000 acres on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico. The position is long with an average price of $18.00. Currently, 80% of the full core position size is being held. Profits have been taken as high as $23.16. Target zone is $34 to $38. Joe reported better than expected earnings and the stock has jumped up and as of this writing is trading at $22.27. A prominent hedge fund is short