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HOW TO PLAY 20 HURRICANE STOCKS $HD $LOW $GNRC $BECN $M $USG

October 31, 2012

In the coming days, several stocks that are affected by hurricane Sandy will offer trading opportunities both on the long and the short side. Here is how to play them based on the historical data from previous storms. Insurance stocks Insurance stocks such as Travelers TRV, Chubb CB, and Allstate ALL will be in play. It is too early to tell, but insured losses are likely to be in the range of $5-$10 billion. Property and casualty industry in the United States is capitalized at about $500 billion. Insured losses are likely to be under 2% of the capital. Further,

WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: QE ADDICTS FIGHT ANOTHER POSITIVE DATA POINT

October 26, 2012

(The Weekly Digest reproduces the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers.) QE ADDICTS FIGHT ANOTHER POSITIVE DATA POINT October 26, 2012 Another positive economic data point was reported on the U.S. economy this morning. GDP grew by 2% vs. 1.9% consensus. Better economic data means less chance of QE expansion. QE addicts do not like better economic data. Where will the markets go next? It depends on who wins the battle between QE addicts and those who like a better economy. There is no way to tell who will win in the

APPLE’S QUARTER WAS LOUSY, BUT STOCK STILL HEADED TO $1000 $AAPL

October 26, 2012

Despite disappointing quarterly earnings from Apple, my long-term Apple (AAPL) stock target of $1,000 remains intact. Apple ‘s earnings report was bad on almost all metrics, but future guidance was downright shocking. For Q1 Apple now sees EPS of $11.75 vs. consensus of $15.53. For Q1 Apple now sees revenues of $52 billion vs. consensus of $55 billion. In my analysis, not much has changed from a fundamental perspective since the release of bad earnings. Some may find it disconcerting that gross margins dropped to 40% vs. consensus estimate of 40.6%. In my models, I had anticipated a drop because of

BAD APPLE EARNINGS: WHAT TO DO NOW $AAPL

October 26, 2012

Apple reported bad earnings. The company missed estimates on almost all metrics as shown below. Earnings came in at $8.67 vs. published consensus of $8.75 and whisper numbers around $9.10. iPad sales came at 14 million vs. published consensus of 17 million and whisper numbers around 18 million. Mac sales came at 4.9 million vs. estimates of 5 million. Gross margins came in at 40% vs. estimates of 40.6%. Apple guides for first-quarter EPS of $11.75 vs. consensus of $15.53. Apple guides revenues for Q1 of $52 billion vs. consensus of $55 billion. On the positive side, the company sold

TAKE PARTIAL PROFITS ON AAPL $AAPL

October 25, 2012

This post was just published on ZYX Buy Change Consider taking partial profits on a 15% tranche on AAPL right here around $610. Please take liberty with the price. Also suspending buy zones on AAPL. Earnings are a lot lower than expected.

CHANGING SHORT ZONE ON PANDORA (P) $P

October 25, 2012

This post was just published on ZYX Short Sell Change Changing the lower band of the short zone on P to $8.45.

NEW IDEA ON PANDORA $P $AAPL

October 25, 2012

This post was just published on ZYX Short Sell Change AAPL has announced that it will start a new radio service in early 2013. This is a direct challenge to Pandora (P). Short zone is $8.75 to $10. Please build a position carefully based on your risk tolerance as short interest is high in P and it can move contrary to the logic on a short squeeze. Stop zone $11.31 to $11.84. Target zone $4 to $5.

THE REAL REASON BEHIND GOLD AND SILVER MOVE TODAY $GLD $SLV $GDX $FXY $YCS,

October 25, 2012

This post was just published on ZYX Buy Change The real reason behind the gold, silver, and miner up move today is a rumor that the Bank of Japan will announce $120 billion QE tonight. The Japanese yen has also weakened against the dollar because of the rumor. We have not been able to confirm the rumor. However, it will not surprise us if the rumor turns out to be true. Yen is too high and is hurting Japanese exports. The Bank of Japan has previously stated that it wants to weaken the yen. What To Do Now? Those holding YCS long or FXY short may continue to hold