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GENERATIONAL OPPORTUNITY TO BUY PRECIOUS METALS IS AHEAD $GLD $GDX $SLV $GDXJ $NEM $ABX $HL $XAU

April 25, 2013

My long-term readers know that I recommended allocating 20% of assets to silver at an average price of $17.73 and exited the position in the zone of $48 to $48.50. I also recommended buying gold in the $600s with an average price of $660, and selling half of the gold holdings at $1904 and the other half at $1757. Ever since then, our models have suggested not entering long-term positions from the buy side in the precious metal complex. Now with the benefit of hindsight our calls have proven spot on. Click here to enlarge the chart. The big question

TUR: A NEW IDEA BASED ON SYRIA USING CHEMICAL WEAPONS $TUR

April 25, 2013

This post was just published on ZYX Short Change Alert. The Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel has just stated that Syria has likely used chemical weapons. Obama is on the record that the U.S. will not tolerate Syria using chemical weapons. Turkey is Syria’s neighbor and is likely to see a big inflow of refugees if the U.S. gets involved. Moreover the stock market in Turkey is flying high. TUR is an ETF that represents Turkey. Consider initiating a 20% tranche short in TUR in the zone of $71-$74. Large accounts may use two tranches. Stop zone on half of the position

NEW IDEA ON PBTH $PBTH $OPK

April 24, 2013

This post was just published on ZYX Buy Change Alert. PBTH is a development stage biotech company. The company has received a takeout offer from OPK at $7 per share in OPK stock. The exchange ratio is 0.9951 OPK shares for one share of PBTH. Deer Path Capital, a large holder of PBTH says that the offer is not adequate and PBTH is worth more than $10. Here are the five scenarios. PBTH is bought out by OPK at $7 a share. A bidding war occurs and PBTH is bought out in the $9 to $10 range. The deal falls through and PBTH falls to $3.50 to $5 range. The deal falls through, PBTH falls and later down the

BEST NEWS FOR APPLE: TIM COOK TURNS INTO A SALESMAN $AAPL

April 24, 2013

It was a mixed earnings report for Apple . Earnings for the last quarter were good, but the projections for this quarter were ugly with Apple forecasting $33.5 billion to $35.5 billion in revenues, compared to a consensus view of $38.6 billion. Bears are also likely to seize on projected lower gross margins. Apple projects gross margins of 36% -37% for the next quarter vs. expectations for 38.5%. For the last quarter, Apple reported $10.09 in earnings per share, about in line with the consensus. Revenues of $43.6 billion came in above the consensus of $42.4 billion. Also on the positive

APPLE EARNINGS PROVOKE INITIAL SOUND AND FURY, THEN NOTHING AND WORSE $AAPL

April 24, 2013

On Tuesday, my inbox was flooded after my last column, “Seven Reasons Not To Be Foolish Ahead Of Apple Earnings.” All of the emails were from readers who felt that they knew for sure what Apple was going to do after earnings. About half of the email writers felt strongly that Apple would go up about $30 to $40 after the release; the other half felt that Apple would fall about $50 after the earnings call. These spreads were somewhat wider that what option premiums in Apple were indicating. Option premiums were indicating a move of about 7% after earnings, and that’s

HOW TO PLAY APPLE’S BEAUTY AND THE BEAST EARNINGS $AAPL

April 23, 2013

Apple Inc.’s just-released earnings show quite a contrast between the recent past and the near future. The projections for next quarter are downright ugly while earnings for the last quarter are a thing of beauty. First let us examine the technicals of Apple AAPL stock and then we will move on to the fundamentals. Technical perspective For a technical perspective, let us look at the chart. Click here for the chart. Prior to earnings, Apple had broken the support at $419 – $421 and then dipped below $400. Now the prior support acts as resistance. In the after-hours action, Apple moved up

WHY THE GOLD ‘MEGA BEARS’ ARE WRONG $GLD $GDX $GDXJ $SLV $AG

April 23, 2013

After the recent collapse in gold and silver, some mega bears are coming out of the woodwork. Several have targets that are scary for investors in gold, with them predicting a fall below $1000 for gold, with $800 appearing to be a favorite number. (I have seen targets as low as $400.) But these seem like extreme responses to a significant drop and in my opinion, may not be accurate takes on where gold is likely to end up. Before you read further, please understand that I am neither a gold bug nor a permabear on gold. My calls on

SEVEN REASONS NOT TO BE FOOLISH AHEAD OF APPLE EARNINGS $AAPL $BBRY $NOK $GOOG $MSFT

April 22, 2013

Quarterly earnings from Apple for the three months ended March 30 come out Tuesday after the market closes. Unlike in prior quarters, there is not a high probability scenario that can be laid out with any degree of confidence ahead of earnings. Acting on Apple stock ahead of earnings this quarter is a fool’s game. Here are my seven reasons: 1.) Sentiment on Apple is negative. According to the indicators I watch, negative sentiment is at a level which usually leads to a strong move to the upside. I have backtested 3000 U. S. stocks and 1000 international stocks going