By Nigam Arora & Dr. Natasha Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report. 

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

GAMMA SQUEEZE IN AMD, MUSK SUES OPENAI, UNTHINKABLE MOVE ON APPLE

March 1, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Gamma Squeeze

Please click here for a chart of AMD stock (AMD).

Note the following:

• The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.  The chart of AMD is being used to illustrate the point.
• Gamma squeezes are taking place in many AI stocks, driving them higher.
• The chart shows a gamma squeeze is taking place in AMD.  Gamma squeeze is an important market mechanic.  The easiest and best way to understand gamma squeeze is to listen to the podcast titled “MARKET MECHANICS: IMPACT OF DEALERS’ GAMMA POSITION CHANGE ON THE STOCK MARKET.”
• RSI on the chart shows AMD has more room to run.
• The chart shows an upward sloping trendline on AMD.
• The chart shows the move up in AMD has accelerated away from the trendline.
• The most important point for prudent investors is that the gamma squeeze in AMD was triggered by investors who missed out on Nvidia (NVDA) and are reluctant to buy NVDA stock at this high price.  These investors are now aggressively buying call options on AMD.  
• There is extremely aggressive buying in Dell (DELL) on a comment that orders for AI servers increased by 40%.
• The momo crowd is buying DELL stock with the hope of DELL stock rocketing, just like Super Micro Computer (SMCI).  The momo crowd ran up SMCI without understanding the fundamentals of the company.
• The fair value of SMCI is less than half of where the stock is trading as of this writing in the premarket.  DELL reported good earnings but is not under valued where it is trading.
• Elon Musk was a co-founder of OpenAI.  OpenAI is responsible for ChatGPT.  Investment in OpenAI is also the centerpiece of Microsoft’s (MSFT) AI strategy.  Musk is suing OpenAI for putting profits above humanity.  OpenAI is a nonprofit organization.  The suit says, “OpenAI Inc has been transformed into a closed-source, de facto subsidiary of the largest technology company in the world: Microsoft. Under its new board, it is not just developing but is actually refining an AGI to maximize profits for Microsoft, rather than for the benefit of humanity.”
• A major Wall Street bank has done the unthinkable.  They downgraded Apple (AAPL).  Not many dare to downgrade AAPL or even take a cautious view on AAPL stock.  The reason is that AAPL is such a favorite with investors that any negative comments about AAPL hurt the revenues of whoever is making cautious comments.  AAPL is a very large position in ZYX Buy Model Portfolio as it is long from $4.68.  Nonetheless, The Arora Report has previously highlighted risks in AAPL stock.  You can expect The Arora Report to be objective about AAPL as The Arora Report is solely dedicated to the long term benefit of its members.  For more on risks in AAPL, please see previous Capsules, posts in ZYX Buy and ZYX Emerging, and the risk reward matrix in ZYX Buy.
• In Fed speak yesterday, Fed officials expressed cautious optimism about rate cuts.  Fed President John Williams stated that he does not expect to further tighten policy.  There is more Fed speak today.
• ISM Manufacturing Index will be released at 10am ET.  Consensus is 49.5%.  The data may be market moving.
• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment will be released at 10am ET.  Consensus is 79.6.  The data may be market moving.
• Expect blind money to flow into the stock market today.  Blind money is the money that pours into Wall Street on the first two days of the month without any analysis and irrespective of market conditions.  Most of blind money is invested in the afternoon.
• Wall Street front runs the blind money by buying certain stocks in the morning and then selling them to blind money in the afternoon at a profit.  Of course, blind money is oblivious because they do not care what price they pay.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in NVDA.

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in MSFT, Amazon (AMZN), and Meta (META).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in AAPL, Alphabet (GOOG), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound as investors wait for bitcoin whales’ move over the weekend.  Bitcoin whales often move over the weekend, taking advantage of low liquidity to carry out their own profit generating plan.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  Remember today is a Friday, and short squeezes tend to occur on Fridays.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates and bonds are range bound.

The dollar is range bound.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2059, silver futures are at $22.87, and oil futures are at $79.74.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5102 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5210, 5400, and 5500 : support levels are 5020, 4918, and 4852.

DJIA futures are down 27 points.

Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash or Treasury bills or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of seven year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

FED’S FAVORITE INFLATION GAUGE RISES BY MOST IN A YEAR, BITCOIN SOARS, PUTIN’S NUCLEAR THREAT

February 29, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Inflation Gauge

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

• The chart shows that the stock market has failed to make progress since the release of hotter CPI.
• The chart shows that the stock market was pulling back before the release of PCE, but improved on release of PCE.
• The stock market has been anxiously awaiting PCE.  PCE is the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge.  PCE rose the most in a year.  Here are the details:
  • Headline PCE came at 0.3% vs. 0.4% consensus.
  • Core PCE came at 0.4% vs. 0.4% consensus.
• In The Arora Report analysis, the stock market improved on the release of the PCE data as there was fear of an even worse number.
• Digging into the data that underlies PCE, in The Arora Report analysis, there is deflation in goods, but there is serious inflation in services.  Deflation in goods is coming from China.  This shows that The Arora Report’s prior calls on inflation are spot on.   
• The release of PCE data has triggered aggressive buying in AI stocks and bitcoin. The buying is especially aggressive in C3.ai (AI) after the release of PCE data.  C3.ai released better than expected earnings after the close yesterday.  A signal was given in ZYX Buy.  The trade is now profitable.
• The release of PCE data is also leading to very aggressive buying in small caps.  Small cap ETF IWM and its buy zone are in ZYX Allocation Core Model Portfolio.
• Personal income and spending data was also released this morning.  Here are the details:
  • Personal spending came at 0.2% vs. 0.2% consensus.
  • Personal income came at 1.0% vs. 0.5% consensus.
• Weekly initial claims came at 215K vs. 206K consensus.  This indicates that the jobs picture remains strong, especially at the low end.  However, the jobs picture is getting weaker in IT as many jobs are being replaced by AI.
• Yesterday, the Fed’s Williams, Collins, and Bostic said that the Fed will continue to be date dependent.  Bostic said that he sees the first rate cut this summer, while Collins and Williams see the first rate cut later in 2024.
• More Fed speak is ahead today from Fed Presidents Raphael Bostic,  Austan Goolsbee, and Loretta Mester.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.

Japan

As we have been writing, prudent investors need to pay attention to Bank of Japan policies.  Not only is the Japanese stock market hitting a new 34 year high, but interest rates and movements in Japan impact the U.S. stock market.

Bank of Japan board member Hajime Takata signaled a strong case for raising interest rates.  The yen jumped.  For buy zones of Japanese positions in ETFs EWJ and FXY, please see ZYX Allocation Core Model Portfolio.

Russia

Putin is warning that if the West directly intervenes in Ukraine, it risks nuclear war.  Putin’s comments are in response to a comment by French President Macron that NATO could send forces to Ukraine.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOG).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN).

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) soared to $64,000 yesterday before pulling back.  Release of PCE data brought aggressive buying into bitcoin.  Bitcoin is now approaching $64,000 again.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates and bonds are range bound.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2057, silver futures are at $22.92, and oil futures are at $78.62.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5097 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5210, 5400, and 5500 : support levels are  5020, 4918, and 4852.

DJIA futures are up 89 points.

OPPORTUNITIES FOR INVESTORS BEYOND AI AND NVIDIA – BIOTECH BREAKS OUT, NEW GDP DATA SHOWS INFLATION PRESSURE

February 28, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Biotech Breakout

Please click here for a chart of biotech ETF (XBI).

Note the following:

• The chart shows biotech has broken out.
• The chart shows the move up was on high volume, indicating conviction in the move.
• The chart shows when XBI was in the Arora buy zone.  This represents a 54% gain in about four months for members of The Arora Report.  XBI is in the ZYX Allocation Core Model Portfolio.
• RSI on the chart shows that biotech is overbought.
• The breakout in biotech shows there are opportunities for investors beyond AI, Nvidia (NVDA), and big tech.
• Eli Lilly (LLY) is a prime example.  LLY is long from $318.45, which represents a 139% gain in about a year. LLY is in the ZYX Buy Model Portfolio.
• In important news for AI, Apple (AAPL) has canceled its electric vehicle project.  About 2,000 people have been working on this project.  Apple seems to be recognizing that it needs to devote more resources to AI.  This is good news for Tesla (TSLA).
• Just released GDP data shows the economy is very strong and there is inflation pressure.  Here are the details:
  • Q4 GDP Second Estimate came at 3.2% vs. 3.2% consensus.
  • GDP Deflator Second Estimate came at 1.6% vs. 1.5% consensus.
• Prudent investors should keep in mind that GDP is a lagging indicator.  The Arora Report system is based on leading indicators in ten categories.  Please click here to see the ten categories of the ZYX Asset Allocation Model.
• The latest consumer confidence data indicates that there is a high probability of this stock market rally stalling and even pulling back.  Consumer confidence came at 106.7 vs. 114.6  consensus.
• Fed speak is ahead today from Fed Presidents Raphael Bostic, Susan Collins, and John Williams.  Expect Fed speakers to push back against the notion of rapid interest rate cuts.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in TSLA.

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in AAPL and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), and NVDA.

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

Oil is seeing buying on speculation that OPEC+ could extend production cuts through the end of the year.

API crude inventories came at a build of 8.428M barrels vs. a consensus of a build of 1.5M barrels.  The API data is bearish for oil, but for the time being, traders are focused on OPEC+ speculation.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Yesterday we wrote:

There is no resistance for bitcoin between here and $65,000.

At that time, bitcoin was trading around $56,000.

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) has rocketed passed $60,000 and is trading above $61,000 as of this writing.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2044, silver futures are at $22.68, and oil futures are at $78.97.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5076  as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5210, 5400, and 5500 : support levels are 5020, 4918, and 4852.

DJIA futures are down 95 points.

A RUMOR HELPS BITCOIN BREAK OUT, NEW DATA SHOWS WEAKENING BUSINESS SPENDING

February 27, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Bitcoin Breaks Out

Please click here for a chart of bitcoin futures (BRR_F).

Note the following:

• The chart shows bitcoin broke out.
• RSI on the chart shows bitcoin has room to run.  The severely overbought condition in bitcoin has been relieved by bitcoin being range bound for a few days.
• There is no resistance for bitcoin between here and $65,000.
• The rise in bitcoin seems to be triggered, in part, by a rumor that Microsoft (MSFT) will start supporting bitcoin in its products.  In The Arora Report analysis, at this time, there is no credibility to this rumor.  More than likely, it is simply another tool used by whales to drive bitcoin higher.  Having said that, stranger things have happened.
• Upcoming halving is also contributing to buying in bitcoin.
• The sharp rise in bitcoin is an indication of overall extreme positive sentiment in the market.
• The momentum in bitcoin could slow or even reverse if the market starts paying attention to anything other than momentum and AI.
• Bitcoin whales get investors excited about buying bitcoin, then whales tactically sell into the strength without slowing the rise.  If momentum reverses, then whales sell aggressively.
• Bitcoin miners are being aggressively bought. This is a leading indicator.
• The only realistic way to generate high risk adjusted returns from bitcoin is to understand bitcoin whales and their secrets.  The Arora Report is sharing bitcoin whales’ secrets in the three-part series “Whales’ Secrets You Need To Know: Capturing Bitcoin Profits.”
• In The Arora Report analysis, the just released durable goods data shows weakening business spending.  Here are the details:
  • Headline durable orders came at -6.1% vs. -4.4% consensus.
  • Durable orders ex-transportation came at -0.3% vs. 0.3% consensus.
  • Durable goods is a volatile series but worth watching.  In The Arora Report analysis, if durable orders continue to weaken, this will argue against the prevailing consensus of no landing.
• Consumer confidence will be released at 10am ET.  Usually, consumer confidence is market moving.  However, today it may not, due to the AI frenzy.
• The Treasury will be auctioning seven year notes today.  Investors will be carefully watching the auction results.  More important will be how the stock market reacts if the auction is not well received.  If the stock market moves based on the auction results, that will be an indication that the AI frenzy might be cooling.
• Month end window dressing is taking place.  It is primarily leading to money managers buying AI stocks.
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.

Layoffs

Sony (SONY) is laying off 8% of workers in its PlayStation division.

Expedia (EXPE) is laying off 1,500 workers.

Home Prices

Home prices continue to be strong.  Case-Shiller Home Price Index came at 6.1% vs. 6.0% consensus.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Alphabet (GOOG) and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is breaking out.  For details see above.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates and bonds are range bound.

The dollar is range bound.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2045, silver futures are at $22.66, and oil futures are at $77.57.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5087  as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5210, 5400, and 5500 : support levels are 5020, 4918, and 4852.

DJIA futures are down 18 points.

BUFFETT SITTING ON RECORD CASH BUT CANNOT FIND DEALS, DATA HEAVY WEAK AHEAD

February 26, 2024

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Record Cash

Please click here for a chart of Berkshire Hathaway stock (BRK.B).

Note the following:

• The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock.  The chart of BRK.B is being used to illustrate the point.
• The chart shows that BRK.B is jumping up this morning after slightly beating earnings estimates.
• The chart shows that after the breakout, BRK.B has continued to power up.
• The chart shows the move up in BRK.B stock is accelerating.
• RSI on the chart shows that the Berkshire rally may not go much farther.
• In The Arora Report analysis, the following are the key points from Berkshire earnings that all investors should pay attention to:
  • Berkshire is sitting on record cash, $167.7B.
  • Warren Buffett sees more deals than anyone else, but he still cannot find a large company to buy. This indicates that this market is expensive.
  • Buffett has said that he is price conscious when buying back BRK.B stock.  Buffett seems to be slowing down the pace of BRK.B buybacks.  This indicates that Buffett views BRK.B as expensive.  As of February 12, BRK.B has only bought $600M of its stock vs. $2.2B buybacks in the prior quarter.
  • BRK.B stock is now priced at 1.6 times book value vs. an average of 1.4 times book value over the last five years.  This indicates that BRK.B stock is expensive.
  • BRK.B stock now trades at a forward PE of 24.  This again indicates that BRK.B stock is expensive.
• The chart shows that the market sentiment is so positive that investors are buying BRK.B stock and paying no attention to valuation.  In The Arora Report analysis, this pattern is being repeated in many popular stocks.   
• This is an economic data heavy week.  Most important is PCE data.  PCE is the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge.  PCE will be reported on February 29 at 8:30am ET.  The consensus 0.4% for both core and the headline.
• In The Arora Report analysis, there is a high probability that inflation, as measured by PCE, increased by the highest amount in a year.  
• There is also a heavy supply of Treasury auctions this week.
• Here is the key question for investors: “Will the extremely positive sentiment and AI frenzy overcome the economic data, high valuations, and heavy Treasury borrowing?”
• As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the protection band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents.   Please scroll down to see the protection band.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL), Meta (META), and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Alphabet (GOOG).

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade.  Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates and bonds are range bound.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $2042, silver futures are at $22.60, and oil futures are at $76.33.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 5104 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5210, 5400, and 5500 : support levels are 5020, 4918, and 4852.

DJIA futures are up 13 points.

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

Dr. Natasha Arora

Dr. Natasha Arora has significant expertise in investment analysis especially biotech, healthcare, and technology. Natasha is a graduate of Harvard Medical School followed by a postdoc at MIT. She has published several peer reviewed research papers in top science journals.