WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: WHAT PRUDENT INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW NOW

September 6, 2025

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report.

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

99% RATE CUT PROBABILITY, OPENAI GETS HALO FROM BROADCOM TO CHALLENGE NVIDIA, MUSK $1T PAY AT TESLA

Sep 5, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

99% Rate Cut Probability

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

The chart shows the stock market has been levitating above zone 1 (support).
The chart shows a spike up after the jobs report.
RSI on the chart shows the stock market is neither
overbought nor oversold.
Broadcom (AVGO) earnings were mostly inline with whisper numbers, but the stock is moving on the deal with OpenAI to take on Nvidia (NVDA). Broadcom and OpenAI are partnering to form an artificial intelligence accelerator. The first chips will ship in 2026. OpenAI has placed more than $10B in orders from Broadcom.
In The Arora Report analysis, the Broadcom deal with OpenAI is negative for Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).
Tesla’s (TSLA) board is focused on “retaining and incentivizing” CEO Elon Musk. Tesla’s board approved a $1T CEO Performance Award. To receive the full award, Musk must create $7.5T in value for shareholders, reach adjusted EBITDA targets, deliver 1M AI bots, and have 1M robotaxis in operation. The award is to be paid in shares of TSLA stock. Musk will not receive a salary or bonus. Investors should note Musk’s performance goals are related to humanoid robots and robotaxis and not EVs. As The Arora Report has been sharing with you, a battle has been waging at Tesla – robots vs. EVs. Robots appear to be winning.
The jobs report is weaker than expected Here are the details of the jobs report:
- Nonfarm payrolls came at 22K vs. 78K consensus.
- Nonfarm private payrolls came at 38K vs. 90K consensus.
- Average hourly earnings came at 0.3% vs. 0.3% consensus.
- Average work week came at 34.2 hours vs. 34.3 hours consensus.
- Unemployment rate came at 4.3% vs. 4.3% consensus.
In The Arora Report analysis, new hiring has significantly slowed.
In The Arora Report analysis, after this jobs report, the probability of a rate cut in September is now 99%. Here is the key question: Will the Fed cut rates by 25 bps or 50 bps?
The momo crowd is exuberant this morning on the prospect of more people losing their jobs. Here is momo gurus’ argument:
- More job losses mean bigger rate cuts.
- More job losses mean more deficit spending and more borrowing.
- Lower interest rates, more deficit spending, and more borrowing will drive stocks to the moon.
In The Arora Report analysis, prudent investors should not buy into momo gurus’ argument. A weaker economy also means lower earnings. When interest rates are cut because the economy is strong but inflation is low, it is good for the stock market in the long run. However, when interest rates are cut because the economy is weak and inflation is higher, it can spike the punch in the short term, but it is negative for the stock market in the long term. In the long run, more deficit spending and more borrowing is also negative for the stock market even though in the short term it boosts the stock market.
After gaining advantage over the U.S. in trade talks and displaying the new world order it is trying to establish with Russia and India, China is getting bolder. China will impose a 78% tariff on U.S. fiber optic products.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), and Alphabet (GOOG).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

Money is flowing into gold on the weak jobs report. Money flows are extremely positive in silver.

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6535 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6700 and 7000: support levels are 6500, 6256, and 6131.

DJIA futures are up 36 points.

Gold futures are at $3635, silver futures are at $41.88, and oil futures are at $62.36.

Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. The proprietary Arora Protection Band from The Arora Report is very popular. The Arora Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

BE JUDICIOUS – SALESFORCE AND FIGMA SHOW OVER ENTHUSIASM, JOB SEEKERS EXCEED JOBS AVAILABLE

Sep 4, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Extreme Positive Sentiment

Please click here for a chart of Figma stock (FIG).

Note the following:

The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of FIG stock is being used to illustrate the point.
The chart shows Figma’s IPO on July 31. The IPO was priced at $33.
The chart shows the FIG stock reached its all time high of $142.92 on the second day of trading.
The chart shows the fall in FIG stock since its all time high.
The chart shows the drop after Figma reported earnings yesterday. Figma earnings were below whisper numbers. FIG stock is down 14.23%, trading at $58.50 as of this writing in the premarket.
Figma earnings and the chart show the enthusiasm for IPOs is overdone. In The Arora Report analysis, enthusiasm for IPOs is a symptom of extreme positive sentiment and high liquidity.
- Liquidity is about to go even higher if the Fed cuts interest rates.
- Liquidity is also increasing on government borrowing and spending.
As another example of over enthusiasm, the popular software company Salesforce (CRM) reported earnings below whisper numbers. CRM stock is down 6.11%, trading at $240.73 as of this writing in the premarket. Salesforce is receiving only middling success with its Agentforce. As we shared with you in yesterday’s Morning Capsule, even Salesforce itself has replaced 4,000 customer service employees with AI. Salesforce is not yet generating revenues at a high rate from AI like other software companies such as Microsoft (MSFT).
JOLTS job openings released yesterday came at 7.181M vs. 7.38M consensus. Unemployment came at 7.24M. Job seekers now exceed the number of job openings. This is a first since April 2021. The data provides fuel for the Fed to cut rates at the September meeting.
In a sign of the times, in spite of President Trump’s “drill baby drill,” major oil company ConocoPhillips (COP) is going to lay off 25% of its workforce.
ADP is the largest private payroll processor in the country. ADP uses its data to provide a glimpse of the jobs pictures ahead of the official jobs report. The just released ADP data shows that the jobs picture is weakening. ADP Employment Change came at 54K vs. 69K consensus.
Initial jobless claims came at 237K vs. 232K consensus. This data shows the jobs picture is staying strong. This also illustrates the crosscurrents and conflicts between various pieces of data. At this time, it is very important that investors have access to reliable objective sources of analysis with long track records like The Arora Report. It is important to not depend on momo gurus, especially in view of the conflicting data – momo gurus exaggerate the positive data and ignore the negative data in the pursuit of their job to run up the stock market.
ISM Services data will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.
The mother of all reports, the official jobs report will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET.
Of special importance to the AI trade will be earnings from Broadcom (AVGO) to be released after the regular session close.
President Trump is going to the Supreme Court in an effort to overturn the appeals court decision on tariffs. In The Arora Report analysis, the probability is high that the Supreme Court will rule in favor of President Trump. Further, in The Arora Report analysis, even if the Supreme Court does not rule in President Trump’s favor, there are many other alternatives available to President Trump to keep tariffs in place.
The data has clearly indicated that it is time for investors to be judicious and not blindly chase momentum.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL) and Alphabet (GOOG).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

India bought 39 tonnes of gold and reduced U.S. Treasury holdings from $242B to $227B.

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a build of 0.622M barrels vs. a consensus of a draw of 3.4M barrels.

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6462 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6500, 6700, and 7000 : support levels are 6256, 6131, and 6017.

DJIA futures are down 9 points.

Gold futures are at $3607, silver futures are at $41.53, and oil futures are at $63.19.

BIG VICTORY FOR GOOGLE AND APPLE, FIGMA WILL TEST IPO EUPHORIA, TRUMP REACTS TO “UNSTOPPABLE” CHINA

Sep 3, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Victory For Google And Apple

Please click here for a chart of Apple stock (AAPL).

Note the following:

The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of AAPL stock is being used to illustrate the point.
The chart shows the jump in AAPL stock this morning.
The chart shows AAPL stock gapped up above the top band of zone 1 (prior resistance).
RSI on the chart shows AAPL is overbought. Overbought stocks are susceptible to a pullback.
AAPL stock has jumped up on the news that a federal judge ruled Google (GOOG, GOOGL) can continue paying Apple for Google Search to be the Safari default search engine. In recent years, Google has paid Apple $15B – $20B to be the search default.
In The Arora Report analysis, the Google ruling is the best case scenario that could have happened for Apple. The ruling included restrictions such as Google must syndicate to qualified competitors and deals must be renegotiated every year. This may provide Apple with more leverage around search engines. It may also open the door for Google Search competitors, including those that are AI-enabled, to partner with Apple.
In The Arora Report analysis, the Google ruling is positive for Alphabet as the overhang is removed. The removal of the overhang will allow Google to reach a higher PE. However, in The Arora Report analysis, the ruling is not as positive for Google as investors are generally believing. The reason is Google is now required to open its search data to competitors. In the middle of euphoria about Google, think about it logically – Google has had over 90% of the market share in search. AI chat bots are already changing search habits. Now, alternatives to Google Search like ChatGPT will be able to strengthen their results with the search data that Google is being forced to open up.
We shared with you in yesterday’s Morning Capsule:

The world witnessed pictures of China’s President Xi, India’s Prime Minister Modi, and Russia’s President Putin expressing unity to establish a new world order.

China is continuing to show the new world order it is trying to establish. China’s President Xi, Russia’s President Putin, and North Korea’s leader Kim attended a military parade in China marking the end of World War II with the latest combat drones, nuclear capable ballistic missiles, and anti-ship missiles on display. This is the first time Xi, Putin, and Kim have appeared in public together. Putin said the relationship with China is at “an unprecedentedly high level.” Xi called Putin “an old friend” and called China “unstoppable.”
In response to the historical display, President Trump posted on social media that Xi, Putin, and Kim are conspiring against the U.S.
In The Arora Report analysis, all in all, the events in China are negative for the U.S. markets in the long term and positive for markets in China and India.
IPO euphoria has taken hold among investors. This euphoria will be tested today when one of the hottest recent IPO’s Figma (FIG) reports earnings. Figma earnings will also be a test for software stocks. The consensus is for Figma to report revenue of $250M and earnings of $0.09.
In a noteworthy development, Salesforce (CRM) has replaced 4,000 customer service employees with AI.
JOLTS job openings will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.
The Fed’s Beige Book will be released at 2pm ET.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon (AMZN).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Microsoft (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

Gold futures have crossed $3600.

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6446 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6500, 6700, and 7000: support levels are 6256, 6131, 6017.

DJIA futures are down 89 points.

Gold futures are at $3616, silver futures are at $41.80, and oil futures are at $64.44.

INVESTORS PAY ATTENTION: GOLD HITS ALL TIME HIGH ON CHINA SHOWCASING A NEW WORLD ORDER IN SNUB TO U.S.

Sep 2, 2025

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Showcase Of New World Order

Please click here for a chart of gold ETF GLD.

Note the following:

The chart shows gold hit an all time high.
The chart shows that after four failed attempts, gold has broken above zone 1 (resistance). Prudent investors should carefully watch to see if this breakout is sustained or fails. If the breakout is sustained, the next target for gold is $4000.
Gold is rising primarily because the U.S has a new problem. China, India, and Russia showcased alignment in a snub to the U.S. In The Arora Report analysis, if China is successful in bringing about the new world order on display this weekend, prudent investors should be concerned.
- The world witnessed pictures of China’s President Xi, India’s Prime Minister Modi, and Russia’s President Putin expressing unity to establish a new world order.
- The world also witnessed India’s Prime Minister Modi hugging Russia’s President Putin.
- So far, India has stared down the 50% tariffs imposed by the U.S. on India for buying Russian oil.
- The purpose of U.S. tariffs on India was to stop India from buying Russian oil. Change has unintended consequences – in this case, the change sought by the U.S. has pushed India closer to China and Russia and away from the U.S.
In The Arora Report analysis, Russia is now selling oil to India at about an $8 per barrel discount to the international price and $1 per barrel cheaper than what Russia was charging when the U.S. imposed tariffs on India.
Central banks now hold more gold than U.S. Treasuries for the first time since 1996. For those wanting next level information, a new podcast will be published shortly titled “Central Banks Ditch U.S. Treasuries In Favor Of Gold.”
The yield on 30 year French bonds has risen to 4.5% – the highest level since 2009. The government of Prime Minister Bayrou in France is expected to fall over its efforts to control France’s budget deficit.
The yields on long term bonds in Germany are rising to 3.4% – the highest level since 2011.
Rising yields overseas are spilling over to the U.S. Rising yields are bringing selling into the U.S. stock market.
A small part of rising yields in the U.S. is attributable to last week’s Lisa Cook firing from the Fed and Cook filing a lawsuit.
An appeals court has overturned tariffs. The case is now going to the Supreme Court.
In The Arora Report analysis, tariffs are proving to be a major source of revenue for the U.S. government. If the Supreme Court agrees with the appeals court, it may cause bond yields to rise even further and in turn put pressure on the stock market. The reason is the U.S. government will replace the tariff revenue with increased borrowing instead of cutting spending. Wall Street’s expectation is that the Supreme Court will rule in favor of the tariffs.
In the middle of all of the foregoing negative developments, on the positive side, blind money will flow into the stock market today and tomorrow. Blind money is the money that flows into the stock market on the first two days of the month without any analysis or regard for market conditions.
ISM Manufacturing Index will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.
It is important for prudent investors to pay attention to the Arora Protection Band.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

Oil initially saw a jump on Ukraine attacking Russia’s energy facilities.

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing selling.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6396 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 6500, 6700, and 7000 : support levels are 6256, 6131, and 6017.

DJIA futures are down 438 points.

Gold futures are at $3547, silver futures are at $41.24, and oil futures are at $64.67.

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

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