By Nigam Arora

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report.
Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’
EXTREMELY AGGRESSIVE STOCK MARKET BUYING ON STRAIT OF HORMUZ OPENING, TRUMP SAYS INFLATION IS FAKE
Apr 17, 2026
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Strait Of Hormuz Open
Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
- The chart shows that the stock market is now above the magnet.
- As a member of The Arora Report, you have been ahead of the curve. In the Morning Capsule on April 13, we wrote:
Supporting the stock market this week will be $30B – $40B of buying by Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs). CTAs tend to be systematic, algorithmic driven, trend followers. They are going to buy because the trend has reversed from negative to positive. Most CTAs do not analyze the market, other than the trend.
- In The Arora Report analysis, CTAs have already exceeded our buying estimate.
- In the early trade, buying continued in the stock market in anticipation of more CTAs buying and more short squeeze.
- In the early trade, buying in stocks picked up on a report that Iran has agreed to give up its enriched uranium, and in return, the U.S. will unfreeze $20B of Iranian assets. President Trump has said that a deal is close and an extension to the ceasefire may not be necessary.
- On top of already aggressive buying, buying has spiked even higher as of this writing on Iran Foreign Minister Araghchi saying the Strait of Hormuz is now completely open.
- In the middle of this euphoria, prudent investors should note the following from the chart:
- RSI indicates the stock market is extremely overbought. Overbought markets tend to be vulnerable to a pullback.
- The chart shows the volume yesterday was even lower than the day before. Low volume is indicative of the stock market running up on mechanical buying based on CTA algorithms and short squeeze without deep analysis.
- In The Arora Report analysis, looking ahead, there is a potential trigger for a new leg up in the stock market. President Trump is calling inflation fake. He is pivoting from the war to affordability. President Trump knows affordability is a huge issue for the midterm election. If President Trump’s inflation narrative takes hold, it will drive the stock market higher.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is positive but can quickly turn ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 7112 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7200, 7500, and 7700 : support levels are 7000, 6780, and 6600.
DJIA futures are up 534 points.
Gold futures are at $4844, silver futures are at $80.38, and oil futures are at $86.89.
Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. The proprietary Arora Protection Band from The Arora Report is very popular. The Arora Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
Traditional 60/40 Portfolio
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
MASSIVE SHORT SQUEEZE LEADS STOCK MARKET TO NEW HIGHS – HERE IS WHAT IS AHEAD, SEMIS ARE A TELL
Apr 16, 2026
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Watch Semiconductors
Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
- The chart shows that the stock market has hit a new high and is now right at the magnet.
- In The Arora Report analysis, the biggest driver of the rally yesterday was a massive short squeeze.
- The magnet shown on the chart will temporarily act as resistance.
- Here is the key question for investors: What is next? To answer the question, start with Arora’s Second Law of Investing and Trading, which states, “Nobody knows with certainty what is going to happen next in the markets.” Follow it with Arora’s Third Law, which states, “Making investing and trading decisions based on probabilities is the only realistic and profitable approach.” We depend on the adaptive ZYX Asset Allocation Model with inputs in ten categories. Here are the factors that are worth mentioning:
- So far as of this writing, the short squeeze is not showing signs of ending. This means the short squeeze can carry the stock market further. Note that the situation can change very quickly.
- After the short squeeze ends, if there is no other trigger to the upside, the stock market can pull back.
- Potential upside triggers include earnings better than whisper numbers, a great deal with Iran, inflation coming down, and anticipation of the new Fed chair succeeding at cutting interest rates.
- After the short squeeze ends, if there are negative triggers, there can be a major pullback. Potential negative triggers include a stalemate with Iran, inflation heating up, earnings not meeting very high expectations, President Trump’s China visit disappointing, and a realization that AI capex is overdone.
- Prudent investors should note that consumer sentiment has hit a 74 year low at a time when the stock market is making a new high.
- Investors should consider not locking themselves into a bullish or bearish opinion, but instead being data dependent.
- In The Arora Report analysis, investors should watch semiconductors as a tell.
- This morning, Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) reported earnings better than whisper numbers. TSM is important because TSM manufactures most of the advanced AI chips including Nvidia’s (NVDA) Blackwell chips. In the early trade, in spite of stellar earnings, TSM stock is being sold.
- Yesterday, we shared with you the importance of ASML earnings. ASML is important because without its extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, today’s advanced semiconductors would not be possible. After the initial drop, ASML stock was pulled up in general market euphoria, but the ASML rally attempt failed.
- Yesterday, general stock market euphoria pulled NVDA stock above the psychological resistance level of $200, but NVDA stock was not able to sustain the rally and pulled back.
- Initial jobless claims came at 207K vs. 215K consensus. This indicates the jobs picture is stable.
- Netflix (NFLX) is among important earnings to be released after the close. NFLX is in ZYX Buy and there are nice gains on the position.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOG).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Nvidia (NVDA).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.
The dollar is stronger.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 7071 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7200, 7500, and 7700 : support levels are 6780, 6600, and 6481.
DJIA futures are up 118 points.
Gold futures are at $4835, silver futures are at $79.14, and oil futures are at $91.88.
AVOID THE CLASSIC MISTAKE MANY INVESTORS ARE MAKING NOW – IRAN WAR ‘CLOSE TO OVER’
Apr 15, 2026
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Ahead Of The Curve
Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
- The chart shows the stock market has now moved above the upper band of zone 1. Zone 1 was previously resistance and is now support.
- The chart shows the stock market is now close to the magnet.
- The chart shows the volume on the rally has remained low.
- RSI on the chart shows the stock market is very overbought. Overbought markets tend to be vulnerable to a selloff.
- President Trump is saying the Iran war is “close to over.”
- Many investors are aggressively buying now after President Trump’s statement. Such investors feel that now it is all clear. Buying here is a classic mistake for the following reasons:
- The stock market is very overbought.
- It is near the magnet.
- Volume is low.
- It is after a major rally.
- The right course of action is to buy either on a pullback or on a decisive break above the magnet.
- Interestingly, investors who are buying now are the same investors who were selling when the stock market was hitting recent lows near the low band of zone 2 (support). The reaction of these investors is understandable because they were protecting themselves when the stock market went lower than they expected. Now, they are buying because they feel it is all clear.
- Prudent investors need to know that markets always move before it is all clear, as shown on the chart.
- Prudent investors also need to have access to a structured, dynamic system with a long track record in both bull and bear markets such as the Arora Protection Band so that decisions are well grounded in data, history, and 360 degree forward looking analysis. The Arora Protection Band raised cash and hedges one day before the war started. In real life it does not get any more perfect. Then The Arora Report started deploying cash well before the steepest part of the market rise.
- Among notable earnings today Bank of America (BAC) reported earnings better than whisper numbers. BAC is in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio, long from an average of $7.69. BAC is trading at $54.19 as of this writing in the premarket, representing a gain of 605%.
- Another important earning today is from Dutch company ASML (ASML). ASML is the undisputed leader in extreme ultraviolet lithography machines. Without ASML’s machines, none of the advanced AI chips could have been manufactured. ASML beat earnings and revenue consensus and whisper numbers but is guiding Q2 revenue below consensus. Guidance for FY26 is inline.
- During this rally, semiconductors have been the hottest sector. The rally in semiconductors has been driven mostly by a short squeeze and extremely aggressive momo crowd buying. The momo crowd believes the AI trade is finally back again. After ASML earnings, how semiconductors respond today will be an important tell.
- Nvidia (NVDA) stock has finally been rallying over the last few days. NVDA closed at $196.51. As of this writing In the premarket, NVDA is trading at $195.51 due to ASML earnings. The psychological resistance level of $200 is ahead. How NVDA stock behaves around the psychological resistance will also be a tell.
- The Fed’s Beige Book will be released at 2pm ET.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Meta (META), Microsoft (MSFT), and Tesla (TSLA).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Alphabet (GOOG) and Nvidia (NVDA).
In the early trade, money flows are neutral in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
API crude inventories came at a build of 6.1M barrels vs. a consensus of a draw of 1.3M barrels.
The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Among bitcoin (BTC.USD) bulls, there is a lot of bullishness, and they believe bitcoin will reach $100K shortly. The bullishness is driven by President Trump’s comments on the end of the Iran war. This once again shows bitcoin is not a hedge, as has been promoted, but is a highly speculative risk asset.
Bitcoin is range bound.
Markets
Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.
The dollar is stronger.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 7007 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7200,7500, and 7700 : support levels are 7000, 6780, and 6600.
DJIA futures are up 39 points.
Gold futures are at $4833, silver futures are at $78.85, and oil futures are at $92.15.
TRUMP COMMENT TRIGGERS MASSIVE SHORT SQUEEZE – STOCK MARKET DEEP INTO RESISTANCE ZONE; JPMORGAN WARNS OF RISKS
Apr 14, 2026
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Massive Short Squeeze
Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
- The chart shows the stock market moved from below zone 1 (resistance) to near the top band of zone 1 in one day on a massive short squeeze.
- The chart shows volume was low yesterday on the big move up.
- RSI on the chart shows the stock market is extremely overbought.
- The short squeeze was triggered by President Trump’s statement that Iran was calling to make a deal.
- Producer Price Index (PPI) came cooler than expected. The consensus was based on a spike in energy prices due to the Iran war, but the spike in energy prices has been offset by declining prices in food and trade margins. Here are the details:
- Headline PPI came at 0.5% vs. 1.2% consensus.
- Core PPI came at 0.1% vs. 0.4% consensus.
- Even though the stock market keeps running up, JPMorgan (JPM) is warning of growing risks. When JPMorgan warns, investors should listen because JPMorgan has a pulse on the economy and has more data than anyone else.
- Two big banks, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo (WFC) reported earnings less than whisper numbers, while Citigroup (C) reported earnings better than whisper numbers. JPM is long from an average of $34.14 and is in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio. JPM is trading at $310.03 as of this writing in the premarket, representing a gain of 808%. C is also in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio and is long from an average of $33.80. C is trading at $128.23 as of this writing in the premarket, representing a gain of 279%.
- Fuel cell technology to power AI data centers has received a vote of confidence. Oracle (ORCL) will buy up to 2.8 gigawatts of Bloom Energy’s fuel cell systems to power its AI data centers. BE is long from an average of $118.50 in ZYX Buy and is currently trading at $198.83 as of this writing in the premarket, for a gain of 68%.
- United Airlines (UAL) is exploring a merger with American Airlines (AAL). In the past, such a merger would face a major regulatory hurdle, but the Trump administration may be open to it. If it takes place, the merger will form the largest airline in the world.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying.
Markets
Interest rates and bonds are range bound.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 6940 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7000, 7200, and 7500 : support levels are 6780, 6600, and 6481.
DJIA futures are up 21 points.
Gold futures are at $4791, silver futures are at $77.68, and oil futures are at $96.05.
U.S.-IRAN ATTRITION GAME BEGINS – WHAT STOCK MARKET INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW; CONSUMER SENTIMENT HITS 74 YEAR LOW
Apr 13, 2026
To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Game Of Attrition
Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).
Note the following:
- The chart shows that the stock market has now pulled back below the low band of zone 1 (resistance).
- The reaction shown on the chart to the news of failure of Iran talks and President Trump’s response to blockade the Strait of Hormuz is very muted. On Sunday evening when futures opened lower, the momo crowd aggressively bought the dip.
- The chart shows that on Friday, the volume was even lower than the recent low volumes on the rally. This indicates a lack of conviction.
- Stock market bears are disappointed as they were predicting a much bigger pullback if Iran talks failed.
- In The Arora Report analysis, on the surface stock market bears’ logic seems justified, especially since the stock market rally has been so strong. However, when we look at what happened in the peace talks in the framework of Theory ZYX, eight elements of the X- and Y-axis were in alignment between Iran and the U.S. It is the four elements of the Z-axis where the talks failed. The elements of the Z-axis are easy to rectify if both the U.S. and Iran are determined. Investors should consider the Iran talks not as a failure, but as the first step in a multi-step negotiating process.
- In The Arora Report analysis, for the time being, it is now an attrition game between the U.S. and Iran.
- Until now, President Trump did everything he could to bring Iran to its knees with the exception of blockading the Strait of Hormuz. Iran did not have the naval strength to break the blockade even before its navy was destroyed during the war. Without oil exports, Iran would have been brought to its knees very quickly. The reason President Trump did not choose the blockade early on is that it would have meant higher gas prices in the U.S. President Trump is focused on keeping gas prices low for American consumers. Higher gas prices risk Republicans losing the midterm election. With an eye on oil prices, President Trump went the other way – he allowed Iranian oil at sea to be sold, and he gave India an exemption to buy Iranian oil.
- Iran cannot sustain its economy without oil exports. In the short term, prudent investors need to know that during the war, Iran exported an average of 1.85M barrels of crude per day. This is a hundred thousands barrels per day more than Iran exported in the prior three months. Iran was raking in more cash during the war than before. Now, Iran has more cushion than it had before the war started.
- Now it comes down to who can hang in there longer – the U.S. with rising gas prices and upcoming midterm elections or Iran with a risk to its economy. Objective, ongoing analysis will make a huge difference for investors.
- Supporting the stock market this week will be $30B – $40B of buying by Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs). CTAs tend to be systematic, algorithmic driven, trend followers. They are going to buy because the trend has reversed from negative to positive. Most CTAs do not analyze the market, other than the trend.
- The markets always have crosscurrents. On Friday, University of Michigan consumer sentiment came at a 74 year low – the lowest in the history of the survey.
- Nasdaq 100 is rebalancing, adding Sandisk (SNDK) to replace Atlassian (TEAM). SNDK will be added prior to the stock market open on April 20.
- Produce Price Index (PPI) will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET.
- Earnings season has started with Goldman Sachs (GS) earnings today. GS earnings are below whisper numbers. Earnings from JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), and Citigroup (C) are tomorrow morning. Bank of America (BAC) and Morgan Stanley (MS) will report Wednesday morning.
- As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.
Magnificent Seven Money Flows
Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.
In the early trade, money flows are positive in Microsoft (MSFT).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).
Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks
The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.
Very Very Short-Term Indicator
The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is *** but can quickly change based on Iran war related news. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Gold
The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade. This is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
Oil
The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing mild selling.
Markets
Interest rates and bonds are range bound.
The dollar is stronger.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 6823 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7000, 7200, and 7500 : support levels are 6780, 6600, and 6481.
DJIA futures are down 425 points.
Gold futures are at $4746, silver futures are at $74.08, and oil futures are at $103.60.
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Nigam Arora
Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

