WEEKLY STOCK MARKET DIGEST: WHAT PRUDENT INVESTORS NEED TO KNOW NOW

March 1, 2026

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report.

Please scroll down for the section ‘Protection Bands and What To Do Now.’

RAISING CASH; DORSEY CREATES MUSK LIKE MOMENT WITH 40% JOB CUTS – WIDE DISPERSION IN STOCK MARKET; HOTTER PPI

Feb 27, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Raise Cash And Hedges

As per the adaptive ZYX Asset Allocation Model with inputs in ten categories, cash is being raised by *** (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) and short term hedges are being raised by ***. See details in the “Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now” section below.

Hotter PPI

Please click here for a chart of Block stock (XYZ).

Note the following:

The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of XYZ stock is being used to illustrate the point.
The chart shows a 20% move up in XYZ stock. Block is the maker of the popular Cash App. The move up is the result of Jack Dorsey, founder of Block, announcing that XYZ will implement 40% job cuts. Dorsey was also a founder of Twitter. When Elon Musk bought Twitter, Musk made massive job cuts. At that time, Musk’s critics were aghast and claimed the job cuts were so drastic that Twitter would fall apart. When Twitter not only continued to function but also started adding new features with a much smaller staff, other tech companies noticed. After Musk’s move, a large wave of layoffs among tech companies followed.
It is conceivable that Dorsey’s move may have an impact similar to Musk’s move. More large scale job cuts may follow.
The difference between the job cuts at Twitter and those at Block is that Dorsey is reorganizing the company to take full advantage of AI.
In The Arora Report analysis, this time layoffs are not only coming to tech companies but they are coming to corporate America in general. In The Arora Report analysis, corporations are going to look at how Dorsey is reorganizing Block, and they are going to start reorganizing to fully take advantage of AI.
Further, in The Arora Report analysis, there is going to be a wide dispersion in how it impacts different companies in the stock market.
- Many stocks will experience major up moves because their labor expenses are going to go down.
- Stocks of many companies, such as software companies that sell per seat, are going to be adversely impacted. Examples are Salesforce (CRM), Workday (WDAY), Figma (FIG), and Monday.com (MNDY). The Arora Report has published a list of 18 stocks with nine likely winners and nine likely losers in software. The list can be accessed from the main menu in ZYX Buy, ZYX Allocation, and ZYX Short. For those wanting next level information, listen to the podcast in Arora Ambassador Club titled “OPPORTUNITIES FROM AI DISRUPTING SOFTWARE – PART 1.”
- As people lose jobs, many consumer discretionary stocks will lose as well as companies catering to white collar workers such as American Express (AXP).
Investors should expect a big societal change and high volatility in the stock market. It is worth a reminder that volatility in the stock market is your friend when you have knowledge, expert guidance, and access to numerous edges like the proprietary Arora Protection Band.
On an optimistic note, OpenAI, the maker of ChatGPT, has raised $110B at a valuation of $730B.
Producer Price Index (PPI) came hotter than expected. Here are the details:
- Headline PPI came at 0.5% vs. 0.3% consensus.
- Core PPI came at 0.8% vs. 0.3% consensus.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimal balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Iran

The risk of a U.S. attack on Iran is rising. Oil, gold, and silver are ripping on Iran fears.

India

India’s Q3 GDP came at 7.8% year-over-year vs. 7.2% consensus. Among major economies, India continues to grow quickly and presents one of the best opportunities for long term investors. ZYX Emerging has continuously covered India for nearly two decades.

Investing is never simple. Now, there is a new fly in the ointment. India’s economy has a major component of IT and business process outsourcing services. Expect AI to decimate such services and hurt India’s economy in the process. There is a short position on Indian IT company Infosys (INFY) in ZYX Short.

Pakistan and Afghanistan

An open war has broken out between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Neither country is economically material in the global context, but the war creates geopolitical instability that, in turn, impacts the stock market.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

Most portfolios are now heavily concentrated in the Mag 7 stocks. For this reason, to get ahead and get an edge, investors need to dig below the surface of the Mag 7 stocks. It is equally important to rise above the noise of daily news on the Mag 7 stocks. The best way to get an edge, dig below the surface, and rise above the noise of the daily news is to pay attention to early money flows in the Mag 7 stocks on a daily basis. When there is significant news in the Mag 7 stocks that rises above the threshold of noise and impacts your entire portfolio, it is covered in the main section above.

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is selling *** in the early trade.

Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money’s ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money. Smart money is an important indicator but is only one of hundreds of indicators that go into determining the Arora Protection Band and signals. Please click here and here to understand how signals are generated.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is ***. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade and is especially aggressive in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is range bound.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6862 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7000, 7200, and 7500 : support levels are 6780, 6500, and 6256.

DJIA futures are down 531 points.

Gold futures are at $5235, silver futures are at $92.44, and oil futures are at $67.51.

Arora Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror. The proprietary Arora Protection Band from The Arora Report is very popular. The Arora Protection Band puts all of the data, all of the indicators, all of the news, all of the crosscurrents, all of the models, and all of the analysis in an analytical framework that is easily actionable by investors.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding *** in cash, Treasury bills, short term fixed income, or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of ***, and short term hedges of ***. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

PROBABILITIES OF WHAT IS NEXT – NVIDIA AND SALESFORCE EARNINGS DO NOT RESOLVED UNSETTLED STOCK MARKET COILED SPRING

Feb 26, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Unresolved Coiled Spring

Please click here for a chart of Nvidia stock (NVDA).

Note the following:

The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of NVDA stock is being used to illustrate the point.
The chart shows the move up in NVDA stock after reporting earnings.
The chart shows NVDA stock is at the top band of the coiled spring formation.
RSI on the chart shows NVDA is overbought. Overbought stocks are susceptible to pullbacks. However, in the case of NVDA stock, due to blockbuster earnings, there is a fair probability of a delayed reaction that can cause the stock to become even more overbought.
Nvidia reported blowout earnings significantly better than the consensus and whisper numbers. Going into earnings, whisper numbers were higher than consensus and expectations were very high. Nvidia beat those high expectations. Here are the details:
- Q4 revenue came at $68.1B vs. $66.23B consensus.
- Q4 EPS came at $1.62 vs. $1.54 consensus.
- Forecast of Q1 revenue of $78B +/- 2% vs. $72.03B consensus.
- Forecast of gross margin of 74.9% – 75.0%.
- CEO Jensen Huang was very bullish on the conference call.
After the release of earnings, NVDA stock briefly traded above the psychological resistance level of $200 but then pulled back as selling came in.
In The Arora Report analysis, the real issue is that NVDA stock is overowned. In our decades in the markets, we have repeatedly seen this behavior. When a stock is overowned, there are not many left to buy, even on blockbuster good news.
NVDA is long from an average of $12.55 in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio. At the present price of $197.28 this represents a gain of 1471%.
On the software front, Salesforce (CRM) reported earnings better than consensus and whisper numbers. Here are the details:
- Q4 revenues came at $11.2B vs. $11.19B consensus.
- Q4 EPS came at $3.81 vs. $3.05 consensus.
- Forecast of Q1 revenue of $11.03B – $11.08B vs. $10.98B consensus.
- Salesforce announced a $50B share purchase program.
- CEO Marc Benioff mounted a passionate defense of software and made very bullish projections for Agentforce.
CRM stock fell on earnings as the fears of AI disrupting software businesses continue.
We previously shared with you in this chart that the stock market was like a coiled spring. We also shared with you that coiled springs tend to result in a big move when there is a break. We identified several possible triggers that could cause the break. Now, three potential triggers have passed and the stock market is still a coiled spring.
Prudent investors need to be aware that a break from the coiled spring formation can happen in either direction. Investors should run away from bullish analysts who claim that they know for sure the break will be to the upside and also run away from the bearish analysts who claim they know the break will be to the downside. Investors should start with Arora’s Second Law of Investing and Trading, which states “Nobody knows with certainty what is going to happen next in the markets.” Investors should follow it with Arora’s Third Law, which states, “Making investing and trading decisions based on probabilities is the only realistic and profitable approach.”
Based on the adaptive ZYX Asset Allocation Model with inputs in ten categories and a two decade successful track record, here are the probabilities:
- 30% probability of an upside break
- 35% probability of a downside break
- 35% probability of a false break or staying range bound
Initial jobless claims came at 212K vs. 211K consensus. Jobless claims continue to be well behaved.
Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released tomorrow at 8:30am ET.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Meta (META) and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is *** gold in the early trade, and this is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying. Prudent investors should note that in one day, sentiment in bitcoin has swung from very negative to very positive.

Markets

Interest rates and bonds are range bound.

The dollar is range bound.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6966 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7000, 7200, and 7500 : support levels are 6780, 6500, and 6256.

DJIA futures are up 120 points.

Gold futures are at $5183, silver futures are at $87.73, and oil futures are at $64.33.

NVIDIA TRIGGER FOR COILED SPRING STOCK MARKET AHEAD, WORKDAY CEO DEFIANT ON AI – INVESTORS PUNISH THE MESSAGE

Feb 25, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Volatility Ahead

Please click here for a chart of Nvidia stock (NVDA).

Note the following:

The Morning Capsule is about the big picture, not an individual stock. The chart of NVDA stock is being used to illustrate the point.
The chart shows that NVDA stock itself has formed a coiled spring formation.
The chart shows the attempt to rally after earnings last quarter failed.
The chart shows NVDA stock broke out in October, but the breakout failed.
RSI on the chart shows NVDA stock can easily stage a large move in either direction.
Prudent investors should note that earnings estimates for Nvidia continue to go higher, but the stock price continues to be stuck. This is nothing unusual and it is in line with the historic precedence of what happens to stocks after a meteoric rise like NVDA stock experienced. NVDA is long from an average of $12.55 in the ZYX Buy Core Model Portfolio. At the present price of $194.19, this represents a gain of 1447%.
Nvidia will report earnings after the market close. Whisper numbers are higher than consensus numbers. This shows there are very high expectations. Whisper numbers are numbers analysts privately share with their best clients and are different from the numbers the same analysts publish for public consumption.
In this chart, we showed you the stock market is a coiled spring. In addition to Nvidia earnings, for the stock market to make a big move in either direction, we identified earnings of software stocks as another potential catalyst.
- A major software company, Workday (WDAY) reported reasonably good earnings. On the conference call, the CEO was defiant regarding AI, pointing out the ChatGPT maker OpenAI uses Workday software. Investors took the defiance as a blind spot and aggressively sold the stock. The stock is trading down about 10%.
- Earnings from another important software company Salesforce (CRM) are after the close today followed by an investor meeting on Friday.
- Earnings from another important software company Intuit (INTU) are on Thursday.
In The Arora Report analysis, investors need to carefully watch not the earnings, not the projections, but how the stock market reacts to comments from CEOs regarding AI on the conference calls. We will be listening to the conference calls and keep you updated.
As AI utilization increases, a tsunami is coming with major societal impact. Investors should be on high alert. Remember from Theory ZYX of Change that change has unintended consequences. Expect significant volatility ahead. With proper knowledge and guidance, volatility becomes your friend as it gives you opportunities to make significant profits.
There was nothing in President Trump’s State of the Union speech to act as a trigger to move the stock market out of the coiled spring formation.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Germany

Germany is one of the closest allies of the U.S. During his visit to Beijing, German Chancellor Merz called for deeper ties with China. This illustrates the challenge the U.S. is facing related to China.

Q4 GDP in Germany came at 0.3% quarter-over-quarter vs. 0.3% consensus.

China

As President Trump’s new tariffs go into effect, China is threatening retaliation. Prudent investors should note that the Supreme Court decision is a big gift to China as the tariffs on China are now lower than they were before the Supreme Court decision.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

The momo crowd is buying gold in the early trade, and this is reflected in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is inactive in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

API crude inventories came at a build of 11.4M barrels vs. a consensus of a build of 1.85M barrels.

The momo crowd is *** in oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing buying.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6924 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7000, 7200, and 7500 : support levels are 6780, 6500, and 6256.

DJIA futures are up 171 points.

Gold futures are at $5205, silver futures are at $90.38, and oil futures are at $65.95.

UNSETTLED STOCK MARKET LIKE A COILED SPRING – HARBINGER OF A BIG MOVE, WORLD’S SMARTEST BANKER WARNS

Feb 24, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Big Move Ahead

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

The chart is a weekly chart to give you a longer term perspective.
The chart shows the stock market is like a coiled spring. History tells us that coiled springs are often harbingers of a big move, but the coiled spring does not give any guidance as to the direction of the move.
Often, there is a trigger that starts the move. Here are the potential near term triggers:
- President Trump’s State of the Union speech tonight.
- Nvidia (NVDA) earnings tomorrow after the regular session close. This is the most important potential trigger.
- SaaS stocks have been mercilessly beaten. Workday (WDAY), an important SaaS stock, will report earnings after the close today.
- Among other important SaaS companies, Salesforce (CRM) will announce earnings tomorrow after the regular session close and has an investor meeting on Friday. Intuit (INTU) will announce earnings Thursday after market.
- A deal with Iran or the U.S. attacking Iran
RSI on the chart shows that the stock market has lost its internal momentum.
Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan (JPM), is the world’s smartest banker. Dimon is warning that many firms are taking undue high risks with credit quality to increase profitability. He likens it to the period of 2005 – 2007. As a reference for prudent investors, in 2008 the stock market crashed with S&P 500 losing 50% of its value primarily due to aggressive subprime lending by many firms.
Investors continue to shoot first and think later. As an example, International Business Machines (IBM) stock lost 13% yesterday after Anthropic introduced a COBOL AI tool that will make it easier to modernize legacy systems that run on COBOL. IBM is already developing its own AI tool for modernizing COBOL based systems. Investors also ignored that even though mainframe based systems are important for IBM, IBM is now highly dependent on AI and hybrid cloud.
AI tools are likely to hit IT outsources including those based in India hard. Examples are Infosys (INFY), Cognizant Technology Solutions (CTSH), and Accenture (ACN). There is a short position in INFY in ZYX Short.
The momo crowd is disheartened as one of the popular go-to momo crowd stocks Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) gave underwhelming guidance. HIMS is a telehealth company, and its business took off when it started selling copycat weight loss drugs, rising as high as $72.98. When HIMS stock was near the highs, momo gurus were pumping hard, sucking in gullible momo crowd investors with targets of $200 – $500 and promoting HIMS as the stock to own forever. As of this writing in the premarket, HIMS is trading at $14.80. This stock market has been driven up by the momo crowd – disheartening of the momo crowd is not a great development for stock market bulls.
Home Depot (HD) is an important stock because it is the largest home improvement retailer in the country. Home Depot earnings often give clues about consumer spending patterns. Home Depot reported earnings better than consensus and whisper numbers.
In a boost for Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Meta (META) is agreeing to buy billions of dollars of AMD chips. The Meta deal shows that customers are trying their best to diversify away from Nvidia, and this has long term implications for Nvidia and the entire stock market.
After a study showed that the weight loss drug from Novo Nordisk (NVO) was inferior to Eli Lilly’s (LLY) drug, Novo Nordisk will cut the list price of Ozempic and Wegovy by up to 50% in the U.S. This shows that weight loss drug sales are becoming very price sensitive.
Consumer confidence will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Japan

There is a report that Prime Minister Takaichi met with Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Ueda and expressed concern about rate hikes. Due to the carry trade, it is important for prudent investors to keep an eye on Japan. In the carry trade, funds have borrowed hundreds of billions of dollars in Japan and invested in the U.S.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive inMicrosoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Amazon (AMZN).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Meta (META), Nvidia (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are positive in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** in stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

The Arora Report’s proprietary very, very short-term early stock market indicator is *** but expect the market to open higher. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Gold

The momo crowd is *** in gold in the early trade, and this is reflected in the price action in gold ETF (GLD), silver ETF (SLV), gold miner ETF (GDX), and silver miner ETF (SIL). Smart money is inactive in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is seeing selling. This is further disheartening the momo crowd.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6863 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7000, 7200, and 7500 : support levels are 6780, 6500, and 6256.

DJIA futures are up 152 points.

Gold futures are at $5146, silver futures are at $86.70, and oil futures are at $66.85.

WALL STREET WRONG ABOUT SUPREME COURT TORPEDO – SMART MONEY SOLD THE RALLY – STATE OF UNION AND UNCERTAINTY AHEAD

Feb 23, 2026

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Contrary Arora Call

Please click here for a chart of Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Note the following:

The chart shows a rally in tech stocks when the Supreme Court decision came out striking President Trump’s tariffs.
The Interim Capsule provided to members of The Arora Report immediately after the Supreme Court decision now seems prescient. We wrote:

The Supreme Court has ruled against the Trump tariffs saying the president does not have the authority to impose tariffs under IEEPA. The stock market has staged a vigorous rally in response. In The Arora Report analysis, the stock market response is short sighted for the following reasons:

President Trump has several other options to impose tariffs.

Tariffs are bringing in substantial revenue. Without tariffs, there will be a higher deficit and more debt.

The Supreme Court decision reduces the leverage President Trump has to negotiate with other countries.

Corporations will seek refunds of tariffs paid, exacerbating the budget deficit.

As an actionable item, there is no change in the Arora Protection Band.

Of note is that at a time when Wall Street was issuing calls to buy stocks and the momo crowd was aggressively buying stocks, The Arora Report did not issue a buy signal for U.S. stocks and did not lower the proprietary Arora Protection Band.
The chart shows smart money sold the rally as the day progressed.
As The Arora Report predicted, President Trump later imposed 15% tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.
The chart shows that during the bulk of the rally, with the exception of late day short covering, the proprietary VUD indicator was orange, indicating a net supply of stocks in spite of aggressive momo crowd buying. The VUD indicator is the most sensitive measure of net supply and demand in real-time. The orange represents net supply and the green represents net demand.
The chart shows the drop in the early trade today in tech stocks as the stock market reacts to 15% tariffs.
The chart shows the tariff line. Investors should carefully watch to see if tech stocks stay above this line or if they break below. If tech stocks stay above the tariff line, it will indicate that the momo crowd is temporarily winning.
In The Arora Report analysis, Wall Street is wrong. Wall Street buying is based on the following:
- Reduced uncertainty
- Lower inflation
- Lower interest rates
- Better relationships with other countries
- Higher earnings for companies
- Company earnings juiced by tariff refunds
In a contrary call, The Arora Report analysis shows the following after the Supreme Court’s decision:
- Higher uncertainty
- Higher interest rates
- Weaker dollar
- Higher budget deficit
- Higher national debt
- U.S. losing leverage in geopolitics
- Tariff refunds delayed by years
In The Arora Report analysis, Wall Street is ignoring three elephants in the room:
- Tariffs were paying for about 70% of the recent tax cut. Without tariffs, the budget deficit will go higher.
- Tariffs were helping to rebuild the manufacturing base in America. Without tariffs, the hollowing out of the American industrial base will continue.
- The Supreme Court decision is a gift to China and Russia.
The Supreme Court decision will have a wide ranging impact. For those who want next level information, listen to the podcast titled “THE $5 TRILLION LIE: WALL STREET IS WRONG — TARIFF RULING WEAKENS AMERICA” in Arora Ambassador Club. To get on the waitlist to join the club, please click here to fill out the form.
President Trump will deliver his State of the Union address tomorrow at 9pm ET. The State of the Union address will likely be market moving.
In The Arora Report analysis, tariff uncertainty is good for gold, silver, and many international markets such as India, Japan, and Vietnam. The ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio contains Japan ETF (EWJ), India ETF (EPI), and Vietnam ETF (VNM).
As an actionable item, the sum total of the foregoing is in the Arora Protection Band, which strikes the optimum balance between various crosscurrents. Please scroll down to see the Arora Protection Band. The Arora Protection Band is one of the large number of unique edges that are available to members of The Arora Report.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Alphabet (GOOG) and Nvidia (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Tesla (TSLA), and Apple (AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is *** stocks in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

Very Very Short-Term Indicator

Gold

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is *** oil in the early trade. Smart money is *** in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (BTC.USD) is range bound. Bitcoin bulls are disappointed that tariff uncertainty is not causing a run up in bitcoin. Afterall, investors were sold the idea of bitcoin being a hedge against uncertainty.

Markets

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 6902 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 7000, 7200, and 7500 : support levels are 6780, 6500, and 6256.

DJIA futures are down 210 points.

Gold futures are at $5169, silver futures are at $86.01, and oil futures are at $66.82.

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Nigam Arora

Nigam Arora is known for his accurate stock market calls. Nigam is a distinguished master of the macro. He is a popular columnist with over 100 million page views, an engineer, and nuclear physicist by background. Nigam has founded two Inc. 500 fastest growing companies and has been involved in over 50 entrepreneurial ventures. He is the developer of Theory ZYX of Successful Change Management and is the author of the book on Theory ZYX, as well as the developer of the ZYX Change Method for Investing.

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