(The Weekly Digest reproduces the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers. )
EVERYTHING COMES DOWN TO THE NEXT THREE DAYS
Everything comes down to how the markets trade over the next three before the Fed meets on the 16th and 17th. The U. S. economic data is clearly strong and warrants a rate increase. However, emerging markets are weak and the U. S. stock market is throwing a tantrum. If the markets stay calm over the next three days, it will increase the probability of a rate increase.
Core PPI came at 0.3% vs. 0.1% consensus. This data may help the Fed with the rate increase.
Oil has given up gains as Goldman is out with a thesis that oil could go into $20s.
Smart Money is selling gold and silver more than countering the buying by the momo crowd.
Interest rates are range bound.
Gold futures are at $1104, silver futures are at $14.55, and oil futures are $44.57.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1962, 2000, and 2017; support levels are 1920, 1860, and 1838.
DJIA futures are down 55 points.
JOLT REPORT KILLED THE RALLY
Yesterday the market started out very strong but ultimately gave up about 400 DJIA points from its high. The reason was JOLT report. The report showed job openings surging to 5753K vs. 5300K consensus. The job openings now stand at a 15% year high. The thinking is that the strong U. S. employment picture will prompt the Fed to raise interest rates when it meets on September 16th and 17th. The market is addicted to low interest rates.
After falling below $43.50 overnight, oil has recovered more than a dollar.
This morning the momo crowd is aggressively buying gold, silver and copper.
Interest rates are hanging near their lows as the money rushed into U. S. Treasuries when stocks failed to hold the rally.
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative but can quickly turn to the plus side.
Gold futures are at $1111, silver futures are at $14.75, and oil futures are $44.48.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1962, 2000, and 2017; support levels are 1920, 1860, and 1838.
DJIA futures are down 64 points.
NIKKEI JUMPS 7.7% ON CHINA STIMULUS HOPES
Overnight Nikkei jumps 7.7%, it biggest gain in seven years on signs that China will provide more stimulus to prop up it economy.
Smart Money has been aggressively selling bonds, gold and silver.
There is still a lot of short covering going on in oil and copper.
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is positive.
What To Do Now?
Consider continuing to lightly accumulate in the lower one-third of the buy zone. Those who have significant profits from recent buys may consider realizing gains.
Short only per specific posts.
Gold futures are at $1116, silver futures are at $14.69, and oil futures are $45.49.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 2000, 2017, and 2038; support levels are 1962, 1920, and 1860.
DJIA futures are up 180 points.
STOCKS TO RUN UP ON GOOD GDP REVISION FROM EUROPE
Q2 Eurozone GDP is revised to 0.4% from 0.3%.
Chinese stocks were down but then the government started buying, stocks in Shanghai closed higher.
There is more short covering in oil but there is a high probability that short covering may have run its course.
As stocks rise, money is likely to leave Treasuries resulting in an uptick in interest rates.
The momo crowd is aggressively buying gold and silver.
Of special note is that copper is surging as Glencore announces major production cuts and China announces a new railway project.
Our very, very early stock market indicator is positive.
What To Do Now?
Consider to lightly scale in the lower one-third (1/3) of the buy zones.
Gold futures are at $1121, silver futures are at $14.68, and oil futures are $45.55.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1962, 2000, and 2017; support levels are 1920, 1860, and 1838.
DJIA futures are up 266 points.
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