WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: GREEK REFERENDUM, STRONG JOBS HEADLINE SOFTNESS UNDERNEATH, NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES, PAIN IN SHANGHAI $GLD $TBT

WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: GREEK REFERENDUM, STRONG JOBS HEADLINE BUT SOFTNESS UNDERNEATH, SWEDEN PUSHES DEEPER INTO NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES, MORE PAIN IN SHANGHAI $GLD $SLV $USO $DIA $SPY $QQQ $TBF $TBT

(The Weekly Digest reproduces the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers. ) 

STRONG JOBS HEADLINE BUT SOFTNESS UNDERNEATH, SWEDEN PUSHES DEEPER INTO NEGATIVE INTEREST RATES, MORE PAIN IN SHANGHAI

June Non-farm Private Payrolls came at 223K vs. 225K consensus inspite of strong headline, digging below the surface shows some softness in the numbers.  Paradoxically this is positive for the stock market because it may delay an interest rate hike.

In a high stakes move, Sweden is pushing deeper into negative interest rates.  The Riksbank cut its main interest rate to -0.35%.  Riksbank has made this move trying to stop deflation in Sweden.

There is more pain in Shanghai.  Overnight stocks in Shanghai plunged another 3.5%.  The index is now below 4000 which is a major psychological level.

Uncertainty over Greece continues.  Nothing much is likely to happen until the result of the referendum are known.  In the latest poll, the ‘yes’ vote seems to be picking up steam.  Overall the vote is too close to call.

Gold broke the support at $1168 and fell to $1156 before release of the job numbers.  After release of the job numbers, a major short squeeze is taking place in gold and silver.

Oil has broken the key support at $58.  However, the momo crowd has still  not given up in the face of adverse fundamental data.

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral.

Gold futures are at $1164, silver futures are at $15.63, and oil futures are $57.35.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2100, 2111, and 2132; support levels are 2063, 2017, and 2000.

DJIA futures are up 39 points.

TSIPRAS CONCEDES, STRONG ADP, SHANGHAI FALLS AND MOTHER OF ALL NUMBERS AHEAD

Greek Prime Minister Tsipras has sent a two page letter to its creditors conceding most of their demands.  Tsipras proposes a few changes that he calls minor.  At this time it is not clear how creditors will respond and what will happen to the referendum in Greece scheduled for July 5th.

ADP Employment Report came at 237K vs. 220K consensus.  Interest rates and dollar have spiked up on the report, gold is pulling back.

Overnight in Shanghai, the market fell 5.2%.

The mother of all numbers, June Employment Report will be released by the Department of Labor at 8:30 am ET tomorrow morning, one day ahead of the schedule due to the 4th of July holiday.

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is positive.

Gold futures are at $1169, silver futures are at $15.58, and oil futures are $58.61.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2100, 2111, and 2132; support levels are 2038, 2017, and 2000.

DJIA futures are up 174  points.

OPTIMISM OVER LAST MINUTE GREEK DEAL, IRAN NEGOTIATIONS, CHINA, AND HOME PRICES

Greece has received a last minute new offer from its creditors.  There is significant optimism about a last minute deal among market participants.

There is a lot of positive sentiment coming out of Iran nuclear talks.  Oil is falling on this optimism as Iran is one of the major oil producers.

Case-Shiller Home Price Index shows that prices increased at 4.9%.

There is optimism again in China, Shanghai market closed up over 5%.

Silver is falling and gold is listless.

Interest rates are range bound.

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is positive but market direction can change quickly in either direction based on news or rumors regarding Greece.

Gold futures are at $1171, silver futures are at $15.60, and oil futures are $58.71.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2100, 2132, and 2150; support levels are 2038, 2017, and 2000.

DJIA futures are up 99 points.

GREECE CLOSES BANKS

Greece has announced a referendum that will take place on July 5th on creditors’ proposals.  The Greek government will campaign against giving concessions.  ECP has frozen the credit it provides to Greece.  As a result, Greek banks have been shut down and capital controls are enforce.

After initial negative reaction, markets are coming back.  Euro after having traded below 1.10 has now moved up to 1.1127.  Stock futures have cut their losses.

Gold, after having moved higher first, has now moved back to unchanged.

There is a lot of interest in buying stocks right here.  However in our analysis, such interest is premature.  It is best to do nothing at the open of the stock market.

Oil has moved down on  Greece.

Interest rates are falling as money moves into U. S. Treasuries.

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative.

Gold futures are at $1180, silver futures are at $15.86, and oil futures are $58.59.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2100, 2111, and 2132; support levels are 2038, 2017, and 2000.

DJIA futures are down 180 points.

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