WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: GROWTH ABOVE FORECAST, DOLLAR HURTS GOLD, BLOWOUT TECH EARNINGS $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBF $USO

WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: GROWTH ABOVE FORECAST, STRONG DOLLAR HURTS GOLD, BLOWOUT TECH EARNINGS $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBF $TBT $USO

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section What To Do Now.

U. S. GROWTH ABOVE FORECAST, STRONG DOLLAR PUTTING PRESSURE ON GOLD, BLOWOUT TECH EARNINGS

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Strong Growth

GDP came at 3% vs. 2.6% consensus.  Both consumer and business contributed by strong spending.

Strong Dollar

The dollar is getting stronger based on strong GDP number.

Gold

Gold is priced in dollars.  If dollar moves higher gold moves lower.  Gold is under pressure.

Blowout Tech Earnings

Four large tech companies, AMZN, GOOG, MSFT and INTC reported blowout earnings.  This is causing significant optimism in the market.

The momo (momentum) crowd is aggressively buying in early trading.  The ‘smart money’ is also selectively buying, especially INTC and GOOG.

Technical Patterns

Brazilian stocks are tracing a Diamond Top. This is bearish.  ETF of interest is EWZ.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral but expect the market to start out higher.

Interest rates are ticking up and bonds are ticking down.

Oil continues to see strong buying.

Gold futures are at $1265, silver futures are at $16.65, and oil futures are $52.47.

S&P 500 resistance level is 2615; support levels are 2550, 2500 and 2450.

DJIA futures are up 21 points.

DOVISH QE TAPER BY ECB, MOMO AGGRESSIVELY BUYING STOCKS, OIL PRODUCTION CUT

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Dovish QE Taper By ECB

In an important decision, the European Central Bank has decided to scale back bond buying to 30 billion euros per month starting in January until September 2018. This will bring ECB balance sheet to 2.55 trillion euros.  Overall this decision is dovish and it is supportive of stock markets in Europe and the United States.

Momo Crowd Aggressively Buying Stocks

The momo crowd aggressively bought the dip in stocks yesterday. In early trading, momo crowd continues to aggressively buy.  The ‘smart money’ is inactive.

Gold

The momo crowd is buying gold.  The smart money is inactive.

Initial Jobless Claims

Initial Jobless Claims came at 233K vs. 235K consensus.

Oil Production Cut

Saudi Crown Prince Salman says that he wants to extend oil production cuts beyond March 2018.  This is supporting oil.

Technical Patterns

Oil service stocks are tracing a Hammer.  This is bullish.  The ETF of interest is OIH.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral but expect the market to open positive.

Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are ticking up.

Currencies are range bound.

Gold futures are at $1278, silver futures are at $16.99, and oil futures are $52.24.

S&P 500 resistance level is 2615; support levels are 2550, 2500 and 2450.

DJIA futures are up 52 points.

BUYING FRENZY TEMPORARILY SUBSIDES, ROBUST EQUIPMENT ORDERS, MOMENT OF TRUTH FOR THE BOND MARKET

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Buying Frenzy Temporarily Subsides

Buying frenzy by the momo crowd in the stock market has temporarily subsided in the early trade. The ‘smart money’ continues to be inactive.

Robust Equipment Orders

Durable Goods Ex-transports came at 0.7% vs. 0.5% consensus.  We exclude transports because they are too noisy and make analysis of the underlying trends difficult.

Moment Of Truth For Bonds

The moment of truth for bonds has arrived.  10-year Treasuries are trading above 2.4%.  2.4% is a key level.  If yields continue to rise, the next resistance level is 2.6%.

So far the stock market is ignoring rising interest rates but it deserves careful watching.

Gold

Higher interest rates are putting pressure on gold but gold is also seeing some buying from the momo crowd.

Technical Patterns

None of note

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative.

Oil is range bound.

Gold futures are at $1273, silver futures are at $16.87, and oil futures are $52.21.

S&P 500 resistance level is 2615; support levels are 2550, 2500 and 2450.

DJIA futures are  down 7  points.

GOOD EARNINGS LEADING TO AGGRESSIVE BUYING

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Good Earnings

This morning  good earnings from major companies such as CAT, GM, LLY, MCD, MMM, and UTX are leading to aggressive buying in the early trade.

All of the buying is from the momo crowd.  The ‘smart money’ is inactive.

FAANG Stocks

FAANG stocks are on the longest under performance streak since the election. This illustrates why investors should be diversified.

Dollar And Interest Rates

Dollar and interest rates are rising on optimism.

Gold And Bonds

Gold and bonds are falling as the need for safe havens declines and the dollar rises.

Oil

The momo crowd is aggressively buying oil on optimism over OPEC compliance.

Technical Patterns

None of note

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is positive.

Gold futures are at $1278, silver futures are at $17.03, and oil futures are $52.29.

S&P 500 resistance level is 2615; support levels are 2550, 2500 and 2450.

DJIA futures are up 142 points.

TRUMP CALMS 401(K) FEARS, A BIG ABE VICTORY, GOLD FALLS

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Trump Calms 401(k) Fears

Over the weekend there was a lot of speculation that the Republicans were leaning towards reducing the tax deductibility of 401(k) contributions. Trump has just said that 401(k) tax deductibility will remain unchanged.

Big Victory For Abe

In Japan, Prime Minister Abe’s coalition won a big victory as the opposition split.

Nikkei is now on the longest up streak on record.  Yen has fallen to the weakest level since July.

In ZYX Global, three Japanese positions are DXJS, HEWJ and YCS.

In ZYX Buy, two Japan related positions are MNR and MTU.

After Abe’s win, we will be doing more work on Japan.  Zones of existing positions may be changed and there may be new opportunities.  Stay tuned.

Gold Falls

Gold is falling on the strength in dollar.

Oil

Oil is seeing buying after OPEC announced record compliance with production cuts.

Spain On Edge

Over the weekend Prime Minister Rajoy moved to take control of the separatist region.

Stocks

Momo crowd continues to buy stocks in the early trade.  The ‘smart money’ is inactive.

Technical Patterns

Several oil service stocks are tracing a Hammer.  This is bullish. ETF of interest is OIH.

This is powerful information and many investors use this to enter trades in addition to our official signals.  Here are the three most common uses: 1) Short-term trades in ETFs  2) Decisions to trim or add to long-term positions, and 3) New option trades. These should be used judiciously only in conjunction with macro, fundamental and quantitative indicators.  To learn more please click here.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral but expect the market to open higher.

Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are ticking up.

Gold futures are at $1274, silver futures are at $18.94, and oil futures are $52.08.

S&P 500 resistance level is 2615; support levels are 2550, 2500 and 2450.

DJIA futures are up 38  points.

 

WHAT TO DO NOW

Looking ahead and not only in the rear view mirror, consider continuing to hold existing core portfolio positions.  Based on individual risk preference, consider holding cash or treasury bills 19% – 29% and short to medium-term hedges of  15% – 25% and very short term hedges of 15%.

 

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