WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: INTEREST RATES RISE SHARPLY AND STOCKS BREAK RESISTANCE AT 1600 AFTER BLOWOUT EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS $GLD $SLV $USO $DIA $SPY $QQQ $TBF $TBT

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(The Weekly Digest reproduces the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers.) 

INTEREST RATES RISE SHARPLY AND STOCKS BREAK RESISTANCE AT 1600 AFTER BLOWOUT EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS

May 3, 2013

This morning the Department of Labor released blowout employment numbers. April Non Farm Payroll numbers rise by 176K vs. consensus of 166K, more importantly the whisper numbers were under 140K.

It is important to note that February Non Farm Payrolls have been revised to 332K from 268K, this is a huge revision upwards.

Interest rates are rising sharply and the stocks have broken the strong resistance at 1600 in S&P 500.

Gold futures are at $1465, silver futures are at $23.85, and oil futures are $94.82.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 1607, 1625, and 1635; support levels are 1600, 1575, and 1570.

DJIA futures are up 108 points.

ECB CUTS RATE AND FED WILLING TO RAISE QE, STOCKS REACT BUT GOLD DOES NOT

May 2, 2013

The Fed has indicated that it is willing to increase $85 billion a month of asset purchases.

The ECB cut its main rate by 25 basis points.

Stocks are reacting positively.

Gold and silver should have reacted positively but have not shown much movement.  This shows that there are big sellers in the precious metal markets.  We are not seeing any actions by Smart Money, perhaps because Smart Money tends to sell over $1475.

Initial jobless claims fall to the lowest level in five years.

Gold futures are at $1464, silver futures are at $23.93, and oil futures are $91.44.

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S&P 500 resistance level is 1600; support levels are 1575, 1570, and 1565.

DJIA futures are up 75 points.

THE FED DAY, LOUSY ADP DATA, GOLD SHOULD HAVE GONE UP BUT FELL

May 1, 2013

The Federal Reserve policy meeting ends today.  The statement from the Fed may move the markets in the afternoon.

ADP is the largest private payroll processor in the United States.  ADP uses this data to compile the number of new jobs created.  ADP employment change came at 119K vs. 155K.  This means that job growth is slowing considerably compared to expectations.

Gold and silver should have moved up on the news because the news means QE will stay longer.  On the news, as is their pattern, the momo crowd started buying gold and silver but could not overcome the selling by Smart Money.

Gold futures are at $1459, silver futures are at $23.57, and oil futures are $91.12.

S&P 500 resistance level is 1600; support levels are 1575, 1570, and 1565.

DJIA futures are down 33 points.

GOLD WAITING FOR THE FED AND ECB, MIXED EARNINGS AND HOUSE PRICES RISE

April 30, 2013

Gold bulls are pounding their chests that gold and silver will rise after the Fed and the ECB meetings; both meetings are happening this week.  We will stay vigilant and keep you informed if any action needs to be taken or if there is any change in ratings.

Earnings reports since yesterday morning capsule are mixed, this has been the pattern lately.

Case-Shiller Index, which represents home prices in 20 cities in the United States rose 9.3% vs. 8.7% consensus.  This tells us that the  housing recovery is staying on track.

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Gold futures are at $1469, silver futures are at $24.26, and oil futures are $94.24.

S&P 500 resistance level is 1600; support levels are 1575, 1570, and 1565.

DJIA futures are down 2 points.

PERSONAL INCOME AND SPENDING RISES, INFLATION FALLS NOT GOOD FOR GOLD

April 29, 2013

There is an old saying, “Do not bet against American consumers.”  Just released data from March proves the point.  March personal income rose 0.2% vs. 0.3% consensus; march personal spending rose 0.2% vs 0.1% consensus.  The point is spending was more than the consensus and income was less than the consensus.

The most economic number released this morning is March Core PCE Prices.  The number came at 0.0% month over month vs. 0.1%.  This is an important indicator of inflation and conclusively shows that inflation is falling at least temporarily.  This is not good for gold.

Our posture remains that only selective buying, selective profit taking and selective short selling is in order under these market conditions. An aggressive posture is not appropriate here.

Gold futures are at $1467, silver futures are at $24.14, and oil futures are $93.75.

S&P 500 resistance level is 1600; support levels are 1575, 1570, and 1565.

DJIA futures are up 49 points.

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