Spanish and Italian yields spike as Lagarde gets tough.  Lagarde, the head of IMF, has stated that she opposes any extension of Greece to pay its debt. There are significant jitters in Europe this morning.  Expiration of certain futures have exasperated the downside.

Normally at a time of crisis, the dollar gets stronger.  Perversely, dollar has shown significant weakness on rumors that the Fed has taken June rate increase off the table.

Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) came at 0.2%, slightly hotter than consensus of 0.1%.

Gold and silver are very volatile but they are up significantly less than they should have been based on the dollar weakness and yields in Southern Europe spiking.

Oil fundamentals continue to be very negative, but bulls continue to aggressively buy based on technical momentum.  Smart Money is beginning to lightly sell oil.

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is strong negative.

Gold futures are at $1201, silver futures are at $16.27, and oil futures are $56.11.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2100 and 2150; support levels are 2063, 2038, and 2017.

DJIA futures are down 156 points.

Russian currency, ruble, is the best performing currency of 2015.  Russian stock market is one of the top performing in the world in 2015.  So much for the wisdom of gurus who in December 2014 were predicting apocalypse for Russian economy.

In a marathon TV call-in show with his country, Putin defended missile sales to Iran.  His reason is that Iran has shown a lot of flexibility in talks over nuclear  issues.

Putin also dismissed sanctions against Russia as not related to Ukraine, but an attempt by the West to contain Russia.

From an investment point of view, the main insight is that Putin is going to continue to make trouble until Washington decides to give him some respect, which is not likely forthcoming.  The other insight is the resilience of the Russian economy.

This morning’s Building Permits and New Employment Claims data are mixed.

The momo crowd is aggressively buying gold and silver.

Short squeeze in oil appears to be easing.

Interest rates are range bound.

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2100 and 2150; support levels are 2063, 2038, and 2017.

DJIA futures are down 49 points.

The stock market has been moving up on the new IRA money flooding the market.  The next market moving event is the release of the Fed’s Beige Book at 2:00 pm ET.

API oil inventory data was mixed.  Oil bulls keep on running oil speculating that DOE oil inventory data to be released at 10:30 am ET will show lesser inventory buildup compared to prior weeks.

Gold and interest rates are range bound.

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral.

Gold futures are at $1191, silver futures are at $16.13, and oil futures are $54.03.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2100 and 2150; support levels are 2063, 2038, and 2017.

DJIA futures are up 53 points.

Russia has lifted its self-imposed ban to supply advanced surface to air missiles to Iran.  This decision by Russia was made by against the wishes of the United States.  This incident has investment implications in that it gives credence to Obama’s argument that if the Congress scuttles the Iran deal, it will be impossible to hold the coalition to keep sanctions on Iran.  This also lends credence to our thesis that ultimately Iranian oil will hit the market, perhaps mid to late 2015.  It is difficult to see how Iranian oil coming to the market will not suppress oil prices, contrary to what oil bulls are contending.

Last month we shared with you our analysis that weakness in the economic data in the United States was partly due to weather and the data should improve with the weather.  Today’s retail sales data proves that our analysis was correct.  Retails Sales month over month grew 0.9%.  Retails Sales x-auto grew 0.4%.

Inflation is still in check; Core PPI came as 0.2% vs. 0.1% consensus.

Gold has fallen below $1190 in spite of supportive economic data. Part of the reason is the stock market in Shanghai has gone into a bubble.  Chinese mom and pop are not buying gold but putting their money into stocks.

Interest rates are falling because the bond market expected retail sales to be even stronger.

Oil bulls are keeping oil elevated by speculating that the API inventory data at 4:30 pm ET today and DOE inventory data at 10:30 am ET tomorrow will show less inventory buildup than the consensus.

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral.

Gold futures are at $1190, silver futures are at $16.10, and oil futures are $52.44.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2100 and 2150; support levels are 2063, 2038, and 2017.

DJIA futures are down 11 points.

What a world we live in!  German 10-year yields became negative this morning and investors think it is positive.  Chinese exports fell 15% and investors think it is positive.

The U. S. stock market is in a resistance zone and overbought.  Will it breakout on the upside due to the new IRA money that is about to flood the market?

Short squeeze in oil and gold continues this morning.

Interest rates are range bound.

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is mild negative.

Gold futures are at $1205, silver futures are at $16.40, and oil futures are $52.70.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2100 and 2150; support levels are 2063, 2038, and 2017.

DJIA futures are down 40 points.