(The Weekly Digest reproduces the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers. )
UNEMPLOYMENT FALLS AND SO DOES GOLD
May 2, 2014
April Unemployment Rate falls to 6.3% vs. 6.6% consensus. April Private Payrolls rocket to 273K vs. consensus of 192K.
Gold and silver have dropped on the excellent employment report. Smart Money is aggressively selling gold and silver this morning after the report but the momo crowd is buying, perhaps attracted by the low price. Lets see who wins the battle.
Interest rates are only marginally higher. Interest rates should have jumped on the news but they have not. This is the great mystery so far of today’s market. There is a conundrum here — stock market sees good economy but the bond market sees lousy economy. Based on our models, the conflict is ultimately likely to be resolved in favor of the stocks, but in the meanwhile this conflict may lead to lots of volatility.
Volatility is good because it allows to enter positions at favorable prices.
Gold futures are at $1284, silver futures are at $19.09, and oil futures are $99.78.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1900 and 1925; support levels are 1875, 1850, and 1837.
DJIA futures are up 5 points.
PERSONAL SPENDING GOES UP, GOLD FALLS
May 1, 2014
Personal spending rose 0.9% vs. 0.6%. In contrast personal income rose 0.5% vs. 0.4%. Since American economy is mostly consumer based, these numbers indicate that economic growth in the U. S. for 2014 may be 2.5% – 3.0%. Yesterday’s low GDP increase of 0.1% will likely prove to be an outlier.
Core PCE came at 0.2% vs. consensus of 0.2% indicating inflation is under control.
Initial Unemployment Claims came at 344K vs. 315K. This number is weaker than expectations and is worth keeping a careful watch.
In pre-market stocks and bonds are mostly range bound.
Gold and oil are falling.
Gold futures are at $1284, silver futures are at $18.89, and oil futures are $98.91.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1900 and 1925; support levels are 1850, 1837, and 1825.
DJIA futures are up 6 points.
EXCEPTIONALLY WEAK GDP
April 30, 2014
Q1 advanced GDP came at 0.1% vs. 1.0% consensus. This is an exceptionally weak number. We will be digging into it to see if any new portfolio actions are required.
Q1 Employment Cost Index came at 0.3% vs. 0.5%. Q1 Chain Deflator came at 1.3% vs. 1.8%. These numbers indicate that inflation is under control.
ADP Employment Change came at 220K vs. 215K consensus.
Interest rates are slightly higher.
Oil and gold are slightly lower.
Stocks are mixed in early trading.
Gold futures are at $1292, silver futures are at $19.31, and oil futures are $100.29.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1875, 1900, and 1925; support levels are 1850, 1837, and 1825.
DJIA futures are up 2 points.
THE FED MEETING STARTS, HOME PRICES RISE
April 29, 2014
The Fed is starting its two-day meeting. We will know the results tomorrow at 2:00 pm ET. Expectations are that the Fed will taper by another $10 billion and state a commitment to keep interest rates low for an extended period of time. If the Fed statement contains anything different, it may cause lots of volatility.
Case-Shiller Home Price Index rises 0.76% vs. consensus of 0.80%.
Interest rates are rising.
Good has fallen below $1300. Oil is range bound.
Gold futures are at $1295, silver futures are at $19.41, and oil futures are $101.22.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1875, 1900, and 1925; support levels are 1850, 1837, and 1825.
DJIA futures are up 38 points.
STOCKS RECOVERING FROM FRIDAY’S DRUBBING
April 28, 2014
In pre-market trading stocks are recovering strongly from Friday’s drubbing.
Gold is holding barely above $1300 but there is light selling by Smart Money.
Oil and interest rates are range bound.
Gold futures are at $1302, silver futures are at $19.62, and oil futures are $101.02.
S&P 500 resistance levels are 1875, 1900, and 1925; support levels are 1850, 1837, and 1825.
DJIA futures are up 47 points.