WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: UPWARD PRESSURE FROM QUADRUPLE WITCH, RATE HIKES, MODI LANDSLIDE AND GOLD $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBF $TBT $USO

   WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: UPWARD PRESSURE FROM QUADRUPLE WITCH, RATE HIKES, MODI LANDSLIDE AND GOLD $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBF $TBT $USO

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights from the prior week gives them an edge over the coming weeks. Here is the day by day rundown from the morning capsules made available every morning before the market open in the Real Time Feeds to the paying subscribers of The Arora Report

Please scroll down for the section What To Do Now.

QUADRUPLE WITCHING EXERTING UPWARD PRESSURE ON THE MARKET, WEAK INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, HIGHER OIL DEMAND, GOLD STEADY

This is what you need to know today.

Quadruple Witching

Today is quadruple witching when index futures, index options, single stock options, and single stock futures expire.  This expiry has been exerting upward pressure on the stock market.

Often part of the gains from this week get reversed in the following week.

Weak Industrial Production

Industrial Production came at 0.0% vs. 0.2% consensus.

Gold Steady

Gold is steady and holding most of the gains.  The ‘smart money’ is inactive for a change, momo crowd is also inactive.

Oil Jumps

Oil is jumping on a report that demand is rising.  BHI rig count will be released at 1:00 pm ET and may potentially move the market.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral.

Dollar is weaker.

Bonds and interest rates are range bound.

Gold futures are at $1229, silver futures are at $17.36, and oil futures are $49.63.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2400, 2450 and 2500; support levels are 2363, 2334, and 2300.

DJIA futures are up 27 points.

POSITIONING CAUSES RALLY IN STOCKS, GOLD AND BONDS, OIL RALLY ON EIA, DUTCH ELECTION AND STRONG HOUSING

This is what you need to know today.

Positioning Causes Rally In Stocks, Gold And Bonds

Fed raised rates by 0.25%.  The accompanying statement and the press conference were more dovish than the consensus.

  • Stock market was positioned extraordinarily long.  Bulls got encouragement from dovish statement and bought aggressively.
  • Gold was positioned very short.  Dovish statement caused a short squeeze sending gold and silver higher.
  • Bond market was positioned very short.  Dovish statement caused a short squeeze causing bonds to go higher.

Oil Rally

EIA data was bullish for oil.  Oil rallied on the data.

Dutch Election

Dutch election results are out.  The Dutch did not support the far right. This is adding to the optimism in the markets.

Strong Housing

Housing Starts came at 1288K vs. 1260K consensus.  However Building Permits were weak coming at 1213K vs. 1251K consensus.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral but expect the market to start out positive.

Dollar is weaker.

Gold futures are at $1230, silver futures are at $17.46, and oil futures are $48.96.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2400, 2450 and 2500; support levels are 2363, 2334, and 2300.

DJIA futures are up 59 points.

POSITIONING AHEAD OF THE FED MAY PROVIDE OPPORTUNITIES, SURPRISE OIL DATA

This is what you need to know today.

Positioning May Create Opportunities

The Fed will announce its rate decision at 2:00 pm ET followed by a press conference at 2:30 pm ET.  Here are the important things to watch.

  • The consensus is that Fed will raise rates by 0.25%. If Fed does not raise rates, it may provide opportunities.
  • The consensus is that there will be one to two more rate increases this year.  If Fed indicates differently, it may provide opportunities.
  • The consensus is that Fed will not raise rates in June.  If the Fed says differently it may provide opportunities.
  • The consensus is that any answers regarding Trump policies will be neutral and diplomatic.  If it is any different it may provide opportunities.

Here are how various markets are positioned.

  • Stock market is extraordinarily long.  Any surprise may cause exit from the same small door at the same time causing a big down draft.
  • Gold market is positioned very short.  Any surprise may cause a short squeeze sending gold and silver  much higher.
  • Bond market is positioned very short.  Any surprise may cause bonds to go higher.

Positioning discussed here is not the entire positioning but positioning at the edges.  It is the positioning at the edges that makes the difference.

Surprise Oil Data

API reported a draw of 531K barrels vs. consensus of a build of 3M  barrels.  The data has caused oil to move up.  A better test will be EIA data that will be released at 10:30 am ET.

Retail Sales

American economy is 70% consumer driven.  Therefore retail sales carry a heavy weight in our timing models.  Retail Sales Ex-auto came at 0.2% vs. 0.1% consensus.  We leave autos out because they are very volatile and cause extra noise.  Please click here to see how we filter out the noise.

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Core CPI came at 0.2% vs. 0.2% consensus.  We use Core instead of the headline number because it is better predictive for  investments.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral but expect market to start out positive.

Gold and silver are coming under slight pressure.

Currencies, bonds and interest rates are mostly range bound.

Gold futures are at $1199, silver futures are at $16.92, and oil futures are $48.48.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2400, 2450 and 2500; support levels are 2363, 2334, and 2300.

DJIA futures are up 35 points.

OIL FALLS TAKING STOCKS WITH IT, WAIT FOR THREE CRUCIAL EVENTS AHEAD, CBO ESTIMATE

This is what you need to know today.

Oil Falls Taking Stocks With It

We recently shared with you the correlation between oil and stocks.  Oil has fallen to a three month low as investors await API data to be released at 4:30 pm ET.  Stocks are likely to open lower with oil.

Three Crucial Events Ahead

Yesterday we told you about four crucial events.  CBO estimates are out but other three events are still ahead.  Markets are waiting nervously.

CBO Estimate

CBO estimate looks bad on the surface in terms of the number of people who will become uninsured under the Republican plan.  In reality the estimate is much better than top Republicans had feared.  This is a positive for the market.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative.

Dollar is slightly stronger.

Gold and silver are range bound.

Interest rates are ticking down and bonds are ticking up.

Gold futures are at $1203, silver futures are at $16.99, and oil futures are $47.71.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2400, 2450 and 2500; support levels are 2363, 2334, and 2300.

DJIA futures are down 56 points.

FOUR CRITICAL EVENTS AHEAD, MODI LANDSLIDE, AND NEW SCOTTISH VOTE

 This is what you need to know today.

Four Critical Events

Four critical events are ahead this week that may provide significant opportunities and also present pitfalls.  We will do separate posts on specific actions as appropriate when events dictate.

  • CBO scoring of Republican healthcare plan
  • Fed meeting
  • Dutch election
  • BOJ meeting

Modi Landslide

In India, Prime Minister Modi has won unexpected landslide victory in two major state elections.  This will strengthen his hand for more reforms.

As a full disclosure, ZYX Emerging and ZYX Global Allocation have positions in India.

Second Scottish Vote

First Minister Sturgeon is seeking second Scottish independence vote.  Scotland wants to be part of the European Union.  In Brexit, Brittan voted to exit.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is neutral.

Bonds, interest rates, gold, silver, and currencies are range bound as traders wait for the events ahead.

Gold futures are at $1204, silver futures are at $17.02, and oil futures are $48.40.

S&P 500 resistance levels are 2400, 2450 and 2500; support levels are 2363, 2334, and 2300.

DJIA futures are up 16 points.

 

WHAT TO DO NOW

Looking ahead and not only in the rear view mirror, consider continuing to hold existing core portfolio positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider 27 – 38% of assets in cash or treasury bills, and short to medium-term hedges of  25% and very short term hedges of 5%.

You are receiving less than 2% of the content from our paid services …TO RECEIVE REMAINING 98%, TAKE A FREE TRIAL TO PAID SERVICES.

Please click here to take advantage of a FREE  30 day trial.

Check out our enviable performance in both bull and bear markets.

FREE: SUBSCRIBE TO ‘GENERATE WEALTH’ NEWSLETTER

Related Posts

WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: FED SEES ECONOMY PICKING UP, MOMO BUYS STOCKS $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $BTC.X $TBT $USO

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights ...

CHART TECHNICALS SETTING UP FOR DOW 30,000 BUT FED AND SMART MONEY MAY SPOIL THE PARTY $SPY $QQQ $GLD $DIA $IWM

Charts used in technical analysis suggest the Dow is climbing toward 30,000. Let’s explore that idea with some background first. When the ...

INVESTORS WHO BELIEVE IN A FREE LUNCH ARE ABOUT TO GET A VERY EXPENSIVE BILL $AMZN $GLD $FB $NFLX $NVDA $AMAT $MU $AMD $AAPL

More and more investors believe there is a free lunch. That is, you get something for nothing. In investing, people have ...

WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: SMART MONEY SELLING STOCKS ON ECONOMY RUNNING HOTTER, SOUTH AFRICA STOCKS SURGE $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBT $USO

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights ...

EVERY STOCK MARKET INVESTOR SHOULD NOW CONSIDER A SENSIBLE STRATEGY $SPY $QQQ $AAPL $AMZN $FB $NVDA $AMD $IWM $GOOG

Are you concerned about volatility in the stock market? With the bull market turning nine years old this spring, you ...

DON’T MAKE BIG INVESTING DECISIONS UNTIL FEB. 14 $AMZN $NVDA $AAPL $MU $AMD $FB $BABA $TWTR $SNAP $BAC $C $SPY $KBE $KRE $EEM $QQQ $SMH $XBI $IBB

The stock market decline more than a week ago was kicked off by higher-than-expected wage increases that showed up in ...

WHAT IS NEXT FOR STOCKS? A BULLISH ‘W’ PATTERN OR A BEARISH BREAK $SPY $AAPL $AMZN $FB $NVDA $QQQ $GOOG $MSFT $IWM

The stock market is complex. The number of inputs is staggering. Setting aside the complexity, the simplest thing investors can do ...

WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: HOW TO UNDERSTAND AND PROSPER FROM MARKET GYRATIONS $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $BTC.X $TBT $USO

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights ...

THE BIG BLUNDER THAT MANY AVERAGE INVESTORS ARE COMMITTING NOW $TLT $AMZN $FB $NVDA $AAPL $PYPL $ADBE $QCOM $AVGO $NFLX

Many average investors are committing a blunder now. It’s not all their fault, though, as information is often dumbed down in ...

HERE’S HOW TO UNDERSTAND — AND PROSPER FROM — THE STOCK MARKET’S WILD MOVES $VXX $GLD $GDX $SLV $QQQ $SPY $XIV

Rising interest rates, the specter of inflation and stocks’ overvaluation are all valid, fundamental concerns facing investors today. But is that ...

WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: STOCKS FALL ON RISING INTEREST RATES AND OVERBOUGHT CONDITIONS, WHAT TO DO NOW $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $BTC.X $TBT $USO

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights ...

WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: TRUMP CLEANS UP AFTER MNUCHIN BUT STOCKS, BONDS AND OIL NOT FULLY BUYING IT $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $BTC.X $TBT $USO

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights ...

MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN BY DESTROYING THE DOLLAR IS BAD FOR AN AVERAGE AMERICAN INVESTOR $GLD $AMD $GDX $FB $NVDA $UUP $NFLX $AAPL $NUGT $USO

No politician in the United States wants Americans to be worse off and deliberately take steps that are bad for ...

NO FOMO? DON’T MAKE THIS OTHER CLASSIC STOCK-MARKET INVESTMENT MISTAKE $FB $AMZN $AAPL $NFLX $GOOG $DIA $SPY $QQQ $NDQ $RUT

The media is full of reports of investors acting out of FOMO — “fear of missing out.” Many investors suffering from ...

WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: SHORT SQUEEZE IN STOCKS, BONDS AT DANGEROUS LEVEL, NEXT TELL ON GOLD AND BITCOIN $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $TBT $USO

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights ...

SPOT ON SIGNAL FROM THE ARORA REPORT AHEAD OF UGLY REVERSAL SELL OFF BUT MOMO IS BACK, THE NEXT TELL ON GOLD AND BITCOIN $BTC.X $GLD $SPY $QQQ

This post was previously published on ZYX Buy Change Alert. Spot On Signal In Advance Of Ugly Sell Off Yesterday stocks traced an ugly ...

THE AVERAGE INVESTOR IS MAKING A CLASSIC MISTAKE AS THE DOW MARCHES TO 30,000 $DIA $GE $SPY $BTCUSD $GLD $BAC $C $NFLX $AAPL $AMZN

Mom and pop are making a classic mistake in investing at this time. The purpose of this article is to ...

WEEKLY MARKET DIGEST: STOCKS ROCKET ON SHORT SQUEEZE, GOLD HIGHER ON WEAK DOLLAR, OIL SQUEEZE ENDS $DIA $GLD $QQQ $SLV $SPY $BTC.X $TBT $USO

Weekly Digest from The Arora Report is popular among serious investors and money managers because they have found studying insights ...

‘FIRE AND FURY’ POSES NEW RISKS TO TRUMP AND, IN TURN, THE U.S. STOCK MARKET RALLY, DIVERSIFIED OUTSIDE THE U. S. $FB $AMZN $AAPL $NVDA $MU $AMD $TSLA $SPY $DIA $GE $ASHR $EPI $VNM

Stock bulls might want to be on alert if new allegations against President Trump turn out to be true. Special Counsel ...

TRUMP FLOATS DOW 30,000 — HERE’S HOW YOU CAN GET TO THAT MILESTONE SAFELY $DIA $SPY $FB $AMZN $AAPL $NFLX $MU $AMD $NVDA $TSLA $IWM $NDQ $RUT $GOOG $QQQ

President Trump routinely makes authoritative statements about the stock market, as he takes credit for its rise. No other president ...

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox

Join other followers