Stealth QE

Please click here for a chart of Fed assets.

Note the following:

• The chart shows that the Fed’s assets were declining as planned due to quantitative tightening.
• The chart shows that last week, the Fed’s assets jumped.  This is stealth quantitative easing (QE).  In plain English, this is more money printing.
• In a rush, banks have borrowed $164.8B from the Fed.
  • $152.85B have been borrowed from the Discount-window.
  • $11.9B have been borrowed from the Fed’s new facility in response to the banking crisis.
  • Where is the Fed getting the money that they are lending to the banks?  The Fed appears to be creating this money out of thin air.
  • Why are the banks borrowing?  The banks are seeing outflows.
  • How sound is the collateral?  Banks are able to borrow at par against securities that may be worth only $0.70 on the dollar.  The easiest way to understand what is happening is to think of the Fed giving a loan of $1M against a house that is worth $700,000.
• In yesterday’s Afternoon Capsule, we wrote:

The stock market got excited that several banks, including JPMorgan (JPM) and Morgan Stanley (MS), are looking to deposit $30B in First Republic Bank (FRC). The momo crowd, without doing any analysis, ran up FRC stock to $40.  Smart money short sold the spike.  The stock has pulled back to $32.38 as of this writing.  The reason is that even if FRC survives, the institution has been damaged and the value of the equity may not be more than where it is trading at now.

• The momo crowd ran up the stock market on the news, but FRC stock has now fallen to $27.40, or a 31.5% drop from its high yesterday. FRC stock is now below where it was before the speculation of the $30B rescue package started. Prudent investors should observe that overall, the stock market has not given up any of the gains on FRC news.  This is especially true of tech stocks.
• In yesterday’s Morning Capsule, we wrote:

The momo crowd aggressively bought stocks yesterday on the news that Swiss National Bank would provide assistance to Credit Suisse (CS).  After the market close yesterday, the news broke that Credit Suisse will borrow up to $54B from Swiss National Bank. As usual, the momo crowd aggressively bought without doing any analysis. Nobody has asked a simple question before aggressively buying stocks: How does a bank with $9.7B in market cap borrowing $54B make sense?

• CS stock has fallen to $1.98 from $2.30 yesterday or a 13.9% drop.  Prudent investors should observe that overall, the stock market has not given up any of the gains on CS news.  This is especially true of tech stocks.
• The reason that tech stocks have not given up any of these gains is that the momo crowd is in a fantasy land. They are suffering from recency bias.  The recency bias is that lower interest rates mean buying tech stocks just like they did in 2020 and 2021.
• In yesterday’s Afternoon Capsule, we wrote:

Derivatives of notional value of $2.8T are expiring in quad witching tomorrow.  The expiration is to the upside.  This is the primary reason behind the upmove.

• The expiration is likely to cause volatility.
• As an actionable item, pay attention to the protection band.  As a heads up, depending upon the data, hedges and cash levels may need to be raised.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is 🔒 (To see the locked content, please take a 30 day free trial) stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 stocks in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is 🔒 gold in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 gold in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is 🔒 oil in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Whales are running up bitcoin. The whales technique is working, retail investors are getting excited and buying bitcoin.  Bitcoin is trading at $26,694 as of this writing.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is 🔒.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $1949, silver futures are at $22.13, and oil futures are at $67.69.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 3964  as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 4000, 4200 and 4318: support levels are 3950, 3860 and 3770.

DJIA futures are down 248 points.

Protection Bands And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding 🔒 in cash or treasury bills or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of 🔒, and short term hedges of 🔒. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

European Central Bank

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

• European Central Bank (ECB) is undeterred from the banking crisis.  ECB raised its key interest rate by 50 basis points.
  • The momo crowd is very disappointed.  The momo crowd was hoping for no rate hike.
• Early buying in stocks has turned into selling on the ECB rate decision.
• The ECB is the Fed’s cover to potentially raise interest rates by 25 basis points next week.
• The chart compares SPY with several other ETFs since the start of the banking crisis last week.  Here are the key observations:
  • The chart shows SPY has hardly budged and is only down 0.56%.
  • The chart shows regional bank ETF KRE is down 15.81%.
  • The chart shows oil ETF USO is down 9.39% on recession fears caused by the banking crisis.
  • The chart shows copper ETF CPER is down 3.19% on recession fears caused by the banking crisis.
  • The chart shows gold ETF GLD is up 4.71% as money flows into the safety of gold due to the banking crisis.
  • The chart shows technology stock ETF XLK is up 1.11% as investors believe technology stocks will do better due to lower interest rates caused by the banking crisis and due to aggressive momo crowd buying.
• Stock market bulls are disappointed in the initial claims data.
  • • Initial claims came at 192K vs. 215K consensus.
    • This is a leading indicator and carries heavy weight in our adaptive ZYX Asset Allocation Model.  Please click here to learn about the model.
    • The latest data indicates that the employment picture is still strong.
    • Stock market bulls want the employment picture to weaken so that the Fed can start cutting rates.
    • Stock market bulls were expecting a repeat of higher jobless claims and, in response, aggressive buying in the stock market.  From the Morning Capsule dated March 9:

Initial claims came at 211K vs. 198K consensus.  From the Morning Capsules you know that initial claims have been very low, typically under 200K.  Stocks immediately jumped on the release of this data.  The buying is especially aggressive in tech stocks and junk stocks.  Investors are celebrating a jump over 200K.

• Stock market bulls are also disappointed in the housing starts data.
  • Housing starts came at 1.45M vs. 1.31M consensus.
  • Building permits came at 1.54M vs. 1.34M consensus.
  • This indicates that in spite of interest rate hikes and huge layoffs in the tech sector, the housing market is strong.
  • Stock market bulls were hoping for weaker data, so that the Fed can cut interest rates.

Credit Suisse

The momo crowd aggressively bought stocks yesterday on the news that Swiss National Bank would provide assistance to Credit Suisse (CS).  After the market close yesterday, the news broke that Credit Suisse will borrow up to $54B from Swiss National Bank. As usual, the momo crowd aggressively bought without doing any analysis. Nobody has asked a simple question before aggressively buying stocks: How does a bank with $9.7B in market cap borrowing $54B make sense?

First Republic Bank

We have previously shared with you that prudent investors should keep an eye on the stock of First Republic Bank (FRC).  Yesterday afternoon, the momo crowd aggressively bought First Republic stock on the news that the government may force it to sell itself in a fire sale.  The momo crowd aggressively bought the stock on the news.  Nobody asked the important question: Will the bank fetch a good price in a fire sale?  Smart money stepped in to short sell the stock taking advantage of the strength generated by the momo crowd.  The stock has lost about one third of its value this morning.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd has switched from 🔒 stocks to 🔒 stocks in the early trade after the ECB decision.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is 🔒 gold in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

The momo crowd is 🔒 in oil in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Whales are managing to levitate bitcoin.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is 🔒.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $1934, silver futures are at $22.04, and oil futures are at $67.23.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 3910  as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 3950, 4000 and 4200: support levels are 3860, 3770 and 3630.

DJIA futures are down 224 points.

Saudi Decision On Credit Suisse

Please click here for a chart of Credit Suisse stock (CS).

Note the following:

• The Morning Capsule is about the big picture and not an individual stock.  The chart of Credit Suisse (CS) is being used because it is the cause of the market drop this morning.
• Credit Suisse was once one of the most systemically important banks in the world.  Credit Suisse handled the 2008 financial crisis better than other major global banks.  It did not need a government bailout.
• The chart shows that over the last year Credit Suisse stock has seen a major drop.
• The chart shows that the stock has dropped 21% this morning on the Saudi decision.
• Saudi National Bank Chairman Ammar Alkhudairy is ruling out more investment in CS.  Saudi National Bank is the largest shareholder of CS.
• CS is no longer as important as a systematic bank in the global sense, but it is still a systematically important bank in Europe.
• The drop in CS stock is causing a fear of contagion in European banks.  European banks are falling.  The contagion fears from Europe are spreading to the U.S.
• After a brief respite on the government rescue program, in the premarket U.S. bank stocks are falling.
• In yesterday’s Morning and Afternoon Capsules we shared with you that prudent investors should keep an eye on the stocks of western regional banks FRC, PACW, and WAL.  Here are some numbers to understand the volatility.
  • FRC has fallen to $36.67 in the premarket from the high of $50.97 yesterday.
  • PACW has fallen to $10.62 in the premarket from the high of $17.25 yesterday.
  • WAL has fallen to $27.10 in the premarket from the high of $39.96 yesterday.
• In the U.S., money is flowing into big banks like Bank of America (BAC), JPMorgan (JPM), Citi Group (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC). BAC has received $15B in new deposits over the last few days. 
• Money is flowing into the safety of the dollar, gold, and Treasuries. The 10-year yield has fallen to 3.47%.  The 2-year yield has fallen to 3.90% after having gone to 5.08% only days ago.  
• The European Central Bank (ECB) is meeting tomorrow.  ECB was set to raise its key interest rate by 50 basis points but the banking turmoil poses a difficult decision for ECB now.
• The banking situation in Europe has overshadowed important economic data.
  • Inflation is slowing at the producer level.
    • Headline PPI came at -0.1% vs. 0.3% consensus.
    • Core PPI came at 0.0% vs 0.4% consensus.
  • The U.S. economy is 70% consumer based, therefore prudent investors pay attention to retail sales.  The new data indicates that the consumer spending binge may have ended.
    • Retail sales came at -0.4% vs. 0.2% consensus.
    • Retail sales ex-auto came at -0.1% vs. -0.1% consensus.
• As an actionable item, the protection band provides a good balance between various cross currents.  Please scroll down to see the protection band.
  • Please be on high alert as hedges and cash levels may need to be increased.  

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is 🔒 stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

Gold

Money is rushing into the safety of gold.

The momo crowd is 🔒 gold in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

Oil is falling on a potential banking contagion.

API data showed that crude inventories rose 1.155M barrels vs. a draw of 3.835M barrels consensus.

The momo crowd is 🔒 oil in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin continues to levitate.  Bitcoin bulls are waiting to see if whales, after having pumped bitcoin aggressively over the last few days, will dump bitcoin as they usually do or will the whales run it up higher to entice retail buyers.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is 🔒.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $1931, silver futures are at $22.37, and oil futures are at $69.38.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 3878  as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 3950, 4000 and 4200: support levels are 3860, 3770 and 3630.

DJIA futures are down 607 points.

CPI

Please click here for a chart of S&P 500 ETF (SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX).

Note the following:

• The chart shows that the stock market had dipped into the lower support/resistance zone, but the CPI rally is driving the stock market above the top band of the support/resistance zone.
• Prior to release of the CPI number, the stock market was running up on pronouncements from momo gurus that CPI would be better than expected.
• Here are the details of CPI:
  • Headline CPI came at 0.4% vs. 0.4% consensus.
  • Core CPI came at 0.5% vs. 0.4% consensus.
• Momo gurus are wrong again, but they have several narratives to persuade their followers to buy stocks.  Here are some of the narratives that are taking hold:
  • CPI is only slightly worse than expected.  The reason to buy is that it is not a lot worse than expected.
  • Core CPI year-over-year is now running at 5.5%.  At least it is not running at 6% or 7%, and that is a reason to buy stocks according to momo gurus.  Prudent investors need to remember that the Fed’s target for inflation is still 2%.
  • Inflation no longer matters because the Fed is going to be too busy saving the banks.
  • The Fed will not raise rates due to the problem with banks.
• After the release of CPI, the momo crowd aggressively bought stocks running DJIA up over 300 points.
• The initial surge of buying was met by selling.  The selling caused the stock market to pull back.  The momo crowd aggressively bought the dip and is running up the stock market again.
• The momo crowd is aggressively buying western regional banks this morning.  FRC is up 58%, PACW is up 50%, and WAL is up 41% in the pre market.
• In The Arora Report analysis, it is best to wait for clarity.  It would be foolish for the Fed to give up fighting inflation as the Fed can fight inflation and help banks stay stable at the same time.  If the momo gurus are right and the Fed stops fighting inflation, momo gurus will attempt to run stocks to the moon, but it will lead to stagflation.  In the long run, stagflation will be highly detrimental to the U.S. economy.  
• Tomorrow, PPI and retail sales data will be released.  This data may provide more clarity.

Layoffs

In another round of layoffs, META will lay off 10,000 employees and close 5,000 open roles.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is 🔒 stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

Gold

The momo crowd is 🔒 gold in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

There is a disconnect between the oil market and the stock market.  In the stock market, the momo crowd is running up bank stocks.  In the oil market, traders are selling oil on concerns about banks.

The momo crowd is 🔒 oil in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Whales have run up bitcoin over $25,000.  Whales are well aware that in the past bitcoin did not move up on bad news in the economy or geopolitics.  One of the reasons that was used to promote bitcoin was that it was a hedge against geopolitical and economic troubles.  This time whales are making sure that bitcoin runs up on concerns about banks.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is 🔒.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking up, and bonds are ticking down.

The dollar is stronger.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $1911, silver futures are at $21.85, and oil futures are at $73.18.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 3934 as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 3950, 4000, and 4200: support levels are 3860, 3770, and 3630.

DJIA futures are up 335 points.

Bold Government Bank Rescue Plan

Please click here for a chart of First Republic Bank stock (FRC).

Note the following:

• The Morning Capsule is about the big picture and not an individual stock.  The chart of First Republic Bank (FRC) is being used as it is the leading cause of the reversal in the stock market.
• On Sunday, the government announced a bold bank rescue plan.
  • Effectively, for the time being, bank deposits are insured for an unlimited amount even though the official limit still stays at $250K.
  • Banks can borrow from the Fed using securities that are now losing money at par value.  In plain English, to illustrate the program, if a bank bought a bond at $100 and it is now worth $70, the bank can borrow $100 against the $70 collateral.
  • The special borrowing program will last one year.
• On Sunday evening, futures staged a massive rally with Nasdaq futures climbing about 1.5%.  Momo gurus were declaring the start of a new bull market.  Their reason was that the Fed would not increase rates any more in view of the stress in banking.
• This morning after tremendous volatility to both up and down sides, as of this writing, the rally has fizzled and the market is seeing significant losses as investors are getting spooked by the price action in First Republic stock.
• The chart shows the price action in FRC.  It has fallen from a high of about $115 to about $29 this morning.
  • First Republic has long been the envy of the banking industry.
    • First Republic has wealthy clients.
    • Its loans perform well and rarely default.  For example, there are rumors that First Republic financed the big mortgage on Mark Zuckerberg’s house.
• In addition to the support from new government programs, over the weekend, JPMorgan (JPM) came to help FRC by providing additional liquidity.
• First Republic now has unused liquidity of $70B up from $60B on Sunday. In addition, the bank can take loans from the Fed under the new program.  At the end of 2022, First Republic had $176B of deposits.
• Over the weekend, momo gurus were issuing calls to buy First Republic stock.  Take a look at the chart for the fall from Thursday to Friday.  In momo gurus’ view, the stock had become too cheap and after help from JPMorgan and the Fed, the stock was going to strongly jump up today.
• Contrary to momo gurus’ predictions, the chart shows that the stock has plunged this morning.
• The reason for First Republic’s plunge this morning contrary to expectations appears to be the rumors that the government wants the bank to be sold.
• In sympathy with First Republic, stocks of other western regional banks PacWest Bancorp (PACW) and Western Alliance (WAL) are plunging.
• Money is rushing into the safety of gold and Treasuries.  Yields on Treasuries are plunging.  
• The predicted peak Fed rate has fallen to 4.8% this morning from 5.7% on Thursday.  This is an extraordinarily large move.
• Among the gurus, there is a remarkable contrast this morning.
  • Bearish gurus are saying that another leg of the bear market is starting.
  • Bullish gurus are saying that a new bull market is starting.
• In The Arora Report analysis, it will come down to market mechanics and not the macro and fundamentals.  Whichever way market mechanics succeed in pushing the stock market, first Wall Street’s algos, and then technical investors will jump on that direction. Once the move starts taking place in one direction, there is a high probability that it might be sustainable in that direction.  
• There are important lessons that all investors should learn from the Silicon Valley Bank (SIVB) failure.  At its root, Silicon Valley Bank’s failure is the result of investment mistakes.  For those wanting next level information, a podcast titled “11 Lessons For Investors From Silicon Valley Bank Failure” is in post production and will be available shortly.

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

The momo crowd is 🔒 stocks in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 stocks in the early trade.

Gold

Gold has crossed above the psychologically important level of $1900 as money is rushing into the safety of gold.  

The momo crowd is 🔒 gold in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 gold in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.

Oil

Brent crude has fallen below the psychologically important level of $80.  

The momo crowd is 🔒 oil in the early trade.  Smart money is 🔒 in the early trade.

For longer-term, please see oil ratings.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin has recovered losses from last week, paradoxically on the Fed’s rescue program.

Markets

Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is 🔒.  This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.

Interest rates are ticking down, and bonds are ticking up.

The dollar is weaker.

Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.

Gold futures are at $1902, silver futures are at $21.49, and oil futures are at $72.88.

S&P 500 futures are trading at 3870  as of this writing.  S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 3950, 4000, and 4200: support levels are 3770, 3630, and 3600.

DJIA futures are down 243 points.